Every once in awhile you see something in the “it’s worse than we thought” meme that deserves some clarification for those that want to look at all the data, rather than those who want to push gloom and doom. A recent tweet by Bill McKibben thoughtlessly retweeting a statement by the Master of Disaster, Weather Underground’s Dr. Jeff Masters, got me digging to see just how true it was. Here’s the tweet:
OK, we are used to weepy Bill regurgitating Tweeting without thinking on a daily basis, but the response from one his unthinking followers was a true Harold Camping moment.
Dear Ms. Andrea Angulo, the answer is: we’ve done nothing wrong, because this isn’t the worst USA drought by any measure nor did we cause it (it was a natural weather oscillation the NAO, and stop following weepy Bill and look for yourself rather than being a flock member).
Jeff Masters’ claim doesn’t hold up when you look at all the data, and it is a claim of his own invention that not even NOAA said anything about. Let’s look at Masters claim:
He cites this graphic and PR from the U.S. Drought Monitor, big mistake, because they have a documented tendency to exaggerate. Here’s the current map:
But Masters didn’t really bother to visualize all the drought data he cited, preferring instead to simply make a pronouncement, which is then unthinkingly parroted by folks like McKibben. I took the CONUS drought area data Masters linked to in the article from:
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/sotc/drought/2012/11/uspctarea-wetdry-mod.txt
And plotted it, noting the years Masters referred to:
Not so scary now, is it? But it becomes even less scary when you don’t cherry pick the data you want, but instead look at all the drought data available to you. Quite frankly, since Masters holds a PhD. in meteorology, you’d think he’d know to look at the most widely accepted metric, the Palmer Drought Severity index (PDSI) also available from NOAA.
Negative values are dry (in yellow) positive values are wet (in green) Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=pdsi&month=11&year=2012&filter=ytd&state=110&div=0
(Note: the 2012 value is a slim yellow line to -4 on the right axis)
Using the Year-to-Date average Palmer Drought Severity Index, 2012 is just another blip compared to others in the last century, and hardly rates a mention. But that doesn’t fit Masters and McKibben’s ongoing gloom and doom meme, so they don’t want to look at it or show it to their followers. But wait, there’s more.
From Sheffield et al 2012, plotting the Palmer Drought Severity Index globally over the past 60 years they show little change in drought severity, and certainly no response to “global warming”.
a, PDSI_Th (blue line) and PDSI_PM (red line). b, Area in drought (PDSI <−3.0) for the PDSI_Th (blue line) and PDSI_PM (red line). The shading represents the range derived from uncertainties in precipitation.
From their abstract:
Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years.
So even the PDSI may have errors, making it overestimate drought severity, and it isn’t just one paper saying this. Martin Hoerling of NOAA says:
Hoerling et al. in Journal of Climate: Is a Transition to Semi-Permanent Drought Conditions Imminent in the U.S. Great Plains?
“We conclude that projections of acute and chronic PDSI decline in the 21st Century are likely an exaggerated indicator for future Great Plains drought severity.”
Climatologist Dr. Pat Michaels, in his previous WUWT opinion piece, noted that NASA GISS Dr. James Hansen is making a claim that global temperatures are driving U.S drought, and did a scatterplot to gauge correlation between Hansen’s own GISS temperature data (GISTEMP) and the U.S. Palmer Drought Severity Index with annual data through 2011:
Annual PDSI -vs- Annual Global GISTEMP – Source: Dr. Pat Michaels
There’s no correlation: zero, zip, nada. If there were, you’d see the dots align along a diagonal line, there’s not even a hint of that. Of course doom and gloom proponents like Masters and McKibben might say “… but, but, but, 2012 was a terrible drought”. Yes, it was, it is, but we’ve seen worse in the past.
One final note, about the real worry of drought in the USA; effects on the food supply.
![CornYieldDep_US[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/cornyielddep_us1.gif)
Note how 2012 compares to drought years of 1934, 1936, and 1988. It is certainly no outlier.
And, the trend for yield continues upward, with 2012 not even coming close to some of the worst years for production.
![CornYieldTrend_US[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/cornyieldtrend_us1.gif)
Source: http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/YieldTrends.html
Agricultural science trumps a drought year. That’s a hockey stick we can all believe in.
Call me a “doubting Thomas” as to overwrought claims by Masters and McKibben, but the fact is that the 2012 drought isn’t as bad as they would have you believe and won’t show you these other data because they don’t fit their business model.
Regarding corn, recall what Bill McKibben once wrote wept:
Those damned shriveled ears of corn. I’ve done everything I can think of, and millions of people around the world have joined us at 350.org in the most international campaign there ever was.
Everything that is, but look at the data.
First, great analysis and presentation.
I’ve come to the conclusion that the ONLY way to get the conversation away from global warming is to start a panic campaign for global cooling. Global normal just won’t do it. It needs to be very well orchestrated and complete with outrageous claims that we are all going to die because of it.
Start with the discovery that a CO2 value of 410 ppm is the tipping point where the ice melts enough to change the jet stream in the summer enough to force rapid, irreversible ice formation in the Arctic in the winter. Confirm that with a Russian ice core finding and away we go.
WUWT can say it isn’t happening with real facts and that, of course, will only reinforce the iceman cometh thesis.
Pete says:
December 30, 2012 at 9:30 am
Isn’t the word ‘goldurn’?
R Babcock says:
December 30, 2012 at 9:53 am
“I’ve come to the conclusion that the ONLY way to get the conversation away from global warming is to start a panic campaign for global cooling. Global normal just won’t do it. It needs to be very well orchestrated and complete with outrageous claims that we are all going to die because of it.”
Don’t worry. Milankovich cycles come to the rescue.
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/12/29/annoying-lead-time-graph/
Further proof that they’re not “tweets”, they’re “twits”.
Matt:
The only thingie the self propelled mechanized thresher or combine has accomplished is the increased productivity.
We could still have 2oo bu/acre corn now with out a combine, we would just need a lot more people and horses.
Just like it shows in the above Palmer Drought Index, NOAA’s NCDC also lists U.S. precipitation by year from 1895-2012.
Precipitation amount is also an indicator of drought:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=pcp&month=11&year=2012&filter=ytd&state=110&div=0
It shows that 2012 precipitation is pretty darned low, but certainly not unprecedented. There are 10 other years with less precipitation than 2012 and most of them are more than 50 years ago.
I don’t know this for a fact but it stands to reason that as government subsidies increase for ethanol more marginal land will be planted. A drought would reduce crop yields on this low quality rain fed land to a much greater extent than high quality irrigated land. This could partly account for the large decrease in yield per acre. The only way to tell would be to look at yield per acre over time for long established farms that produce corn for food.
Not only is every meteorological phenomenon global warming, but it`s all caused by Co2 which comprises a whopping 0,035% of the atmosphere. It`s not the Sun or the ocean currents, which are the two things in this solar system that habitually influences weather. Nosiree, it`s Co2! I knows it! By strange coincidence this trace element can also be easily taxed if you want complete totalitarian control and world government, for the purposes of depopulation, What are the chances?
I have long since started comparing the snake handling buffoons in the AGW cult to people in the Middle Ages who believed witches could float because they were made of wood, so the proof you weren`t a witch was if you sank and drowned. In a slightly more pompous way it`s exactly the same, but with more fake graphs. I am waiting for the eco fascist rendition of the dwarf toss next. Or is that “reality” TV?
It is easier to be an alarmist and not so easy to work to debunk “the sky is falling” stories.
And then looking more close to what they propose one has really to ask himself what is wrong with them.
If we could remove with a magic wand some CO2 from the atmosphere to get it “under 350 ppm” as the 350.org people say, what would be the results of it?
It will not be less storms, less drought – there has been no documented reduction of such during LIA – but some documented reduced biosphere, depending how much under 350 we would go.
I wonder if many of those millions who are supposed to be part of the 350.org do really think what they are for in this org?
I watch the dreamed up CO2 curve which goes much below 350 ppm CO2. In such case one needs to remind himself that a huge part – about 1/3 of the biosphere (the increase after LIA) – would be at play according to this paper:
“The uptake of carbon by vegetation and soil, that is the terrestrial productivity during the ice age, was only about 40 petagrams of carbon per year and thus much smaller: roughly one third of present-day terrestrial productivity and roughly half of pre-industrial productivity.”
wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/21/carbon-on-the-uptake/
Yes of course, there is also some warming that came, playing a role in this increase, which was not due to CO2. So we would lose only part of that 1/3 – even if this is contested by warmistas.
And this with a growing population? How can they call themselves progressive and have this agenda?
If the last 150-200 years warming is, as they said, due to CO2, then all the increase in biosphere since LIA is only due to the increase in CO2. Which bears consequences.
I wonder how many experiments and scenarios do they do with a world with reduced CO2?
Please run your models, and tell me how the Earth and humanity flourishes with 350, 300 and 280 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere with 7 billion + humans, going towards 8 billion for the mid century:
“By decreasing use of other fossil fuels, and improving agricultural and forestry practices around the world, scientists believe we could get back below 350 by mid-century. ” – from 350.org
Does anybody know of such scenario or study? Is this not important to know in the situation?
Where are the modellers when one needs them?
Small question Is there a graph for the price of fresh water in the USA
In the UK we have had the heaviest monthly rainfall since records began allegedly.
Vince Causey says “We had the “drought” conditions in the UK, which was used as “proof” of global warming – because they keep telling us that global warming will lead to hotter, dryer weather. After culminating in April 2012, we had the wettest Summer, the wettest Autumn and then the wettest December on record, leading to floods in several parts of the country.
These same warmists, then decided that warmer climates actually lead to more water vapour, and thus higher rainful. Therefore, the floods became “proof” of global warming. Do these people have any credibility left?”
I could not have put it any better myself!
Check out Christopher Bookers column in todays Sunday Telegraph (available online)
with regard to the incompetence of the Met Office.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/
There was another article concerning wind turbines, apparently their life span is about 66% of the time that was initially quoted, and their efficiency drops to about 50% of their expected output Therefore all the costing that that various governments have calculated with regard to these monstrosities is wrong!
Matthew W says:
December 30, 2012 at 9:40 am
Yeppers – That’s because we could not afford the infrastructure to PAY for the universities, computers, and wasted conferences, UN field trips, lawyers, and university and government bureaucracies that comprise the hockey stick.
See, at subsistence level agriculture, 7/8 of the people have work 14 hours a day 7 days a week just to live. And they “live” less than 35 years per lifetime. Thank food, good water, sewage treatment, better metals, better machines – that whole Industrial revolution thingy – for the luxury of life you (and the UN IPCC) enjoy.
All this over a tweet? Besides the tweet does not say the current drought is worse than the 1930’s, it says the worst SINCE the 1930’s. This is true. Whether or not it is a harbinger of things to come is another question.
[Labeling other commenters “deniers” gets your entire comment deleted. — mod.]
Okay.Can we finally for once call these “DR’s” what they are? Quacks comes to mind.
Darn.Hit post to soon. If it looks like a duck,waddles like a duck,and quacks….welll…
Buzzed says:
“the tweet does not say the current drought is worse than the 1930′s, it says the worst SINCE the 1930′s. This is true. Whether or not it is a harbinger of things to come is another question.”
That depends upon which drought metric is used for comparison. If we’re going by the Palmer Drought Severity index (PDSI) it’s the worse since 2008. Oh the horror!
It’s all in the post, all you have to do is read it.
scienceistheonlyway says:
December 30, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Skeptical Science Syndrome is alive and well. The facts speak for themselves, but the near blind can not reason nor read.
There…..fixed.
Hmmmm.
In the UK, parts of southern England were in (Official) drought untl 17 July – a majority of the year. Yet this is – for sure – England’s wettest year since the ‘Official’ records began in 1910, although I suspect that we have had wet years before that initialising year.
Still not confirmed that this is the United Kingdom’s wettest year (since 1910) as I write. Fair chance. I think.
Visited Devon this weekend – many fields – and many flood plains – were, ah, flooded.
Name one Fact about flood plains: might it be that – in wet years – they flood?
Uh-huh.
Now, tell the politicians. Please!
Returning to topic, interesting that the Great 2012 [2012-2013] drought is so horrendous it surpasses the Terrible drought of [If I read the figure right] 1975.
And we all remember that terrible drought.
Don’t we?
[Ah…………………… Sarc off.].
Happy New Year to every one on our planet [and those down mines {so in our planet] in the air – and in orbit]!
Smiles
Auto
Jim south London says:
December 30, 2012 at 11:40 am
Small question Is there a graph for the price of fresh water in the USA
In the UK we have had the heaviest monthly rainfall since records began allegedly.
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I doubt the price of fresh water in the US would say much about drought conditions. The USEPA regulates water also and some of the regulations require upgrades to the water plants. The cost of those upgrades is passed on to the consumer. Some of those regulations are nonsense. (ie lead-free brass for water fixtures) Some of the nonsense is costly. In other words, the price of drinking water may not reflect the supply of the raw water to be treated.
The Burlington Free Rag, er Burlington Free Press, just named Bill McKibben Vermonter of the Year. They claim that people are recognizing he was right because of super storms and record droughts.
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/20121230/OPINION01/312300004/Voice-Free-Press-2012-Vermonter-Year-Bill-McKibben
The 1950s drought reached a record low in September 1956.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/drought/drght_history.html
Some of us are old enough to remember. However, that summer USSR troops clashed with Polish workers and a few months later there was a bigger problem in Hungary. I can recall news reports of the Hungarian Revolution on our b/w TV. The drought no – but I lived in Pennsylvania — not then dry.
Never assume that a PhD indicates intelligence. Burke’s Law.
Interesting that heavy unremitting rains were one of the trigger events that brought on famines and the plague in Europe in the early 1300’s
http://www.historyteacher.net/APEuroCourse/Readings-Open/reading-TheBigChill.pdf
Larry
I remember a very hot dry summer in 1956-57 (I was in grade school) here in Colorado we had hordes of grasshoppers as well. All the plants had a ragged look because the hoppers were eating everything in sight. In fact I spent much of that summer with my BB gun shooting grass hoppers off the weeds as target practice. It is etched into my mind because when walking through the fields to get to school that fall, a steady tidal wave of jumping grasshoppers would proceed you as you walked, like a bow wave on a boat. Then one morning as I walked through that weed field that I used as a short cut to school, there were no grasshoppers (alive) but the ground was carpeted with hundreds and hundreds of them stone dead. Apparently they had sprayed the field the day before.
It was a hot dry summer but not all that unusual, we have had similar droughts since where annual rainfall here in Denver fell to single digit inches for the entire year, and time passed between rain storms were measured in weeks and sometimes months.
You can see those dry years in this image:
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/sotc/drought/2012/11/Reg005Dv00Elem01_01112012_pg.gif
(source : http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/drought/ )
Many web sources mention (with great alarm) that 2012 is the worst drought in 800 years — well Duh then it is not unprecedented is it? Similar droughts occurred long before global warming was an issue for discussion.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n8/fig_tab/ngeo1529_F4.html
Larry