When the ice melts, the Earth spews fire
GEOMAR researchers discover a link between climate and volcanic eruptions
It has long been known that volcanic activity can cause short-term variations in climate. Now, researchers at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (Germany), together with colleagues from Harvard University (Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA) have found evidence that the reverse process also occurs: Climate affects volcanic activity. Their study is now online in the international journal “Geology”.
In 1991, it was a disaster for the villages nearby the erupting Philippine volcano Pinatubo. But the effects were felt even as far away as Europe. The volcano threw up many tons of ash and other particles into the atmosphere causing less sunlight than usual to reach the Earth’s surface. For the first few years after the eruption, global temperatures dropped by half a degree. In general, volcanic eruptions can have a strong short-term impact on climate. Conversely, the idea that climate may also affect volcanic eruptions on a global scale and over long periods of time is completely new. Researchers at GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (Germany) and Harvard University in Massachusetts (USA) have now found strong evidence for this relationship from major volcanic eruptions around the Pacific Ocean over the past 1 million years. They have presented their results in the latest issue of the international journal “Geology”.
The basic evidence for the discovery came from the work of the Collaborative Research Centre “Fluids and Volatiles in Subduction Zones (SFB 574). For more than ten years the project has been extensively exploring volcanoes of Central America. “Among others pieces of evidence, we have observations of ash layers in the seabed and have reconstructed the history of volcanic eruptions for the past 460,000 years,” says GEOMAR volcanologist Dr Steffen Kutterolf, who has been with SFB 574 since its founding. Particular patterns started to appear. “There were periods when we found significantly more large eruptions than in others” says Kutterolf, the lead author of the Geology article.After comparing these patterns with the climate history, there was an amazing match. The periods of high volcanic activity followed fast, global temperature increases and associated rapid ice melting.
To expand the scope of the discoveries, Dr Kutterolf and his colleagues studied other cores from the entire Pacific region. These cores had been collected as part of the International Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) and its predecessor programmes. They record more than a million years of the Earth’s history. “In fact, we found the same pattern from these cores as in Central America” says geophysicist Dr Marion Jegen from GEOMAR, who also participated in the recent study.Together with colleagues at Harvard University, the geologists and geophysicists searched for a possible explanation. They found it with the help of geological computer models. “In times of global warming, the glaciers are melting on the continents relatively quickly. At the same time the sea level rises. The weight on the continents decreases, while the weight on the oceanic tectonic plates increases. Thus, the stress changes within in the earth to open more routes for ascending magma” says Dr Jegen.
The rate of global cooling at the end of the warm phases is much slower, so there are less dramatic stress changes during these times. “If you follow the natural climate cycles, we are currently at the end of a really warm phase. Therefore, things are volcanically quieter now. The impact from man-made warming is still unclear based on our current understanding” says Dr Kutterolf. The next step is to investigate shorter-term historical variations to better understand implications for the present day.
Reference:
Kutterolf, S., M. Jegen, J. X. Mitrovica, T. Kwasnitschka, A. Freundt, P. J. Huybers (2012): A detection of Milankovitch frequencies in global volcanic activity. Geology, G33419.1, http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/G33419.1
“The periods of high volcanic activity followed fast, global temperature increases and associated rapid ice melting.”
So, were the fast warming and the volcanic activity caused by a third variable?
This would suggest the likelihood of different lag times for each effect.
IOW, it wouldn’t have to be “global warming causes volcanic activity and volcanic activity causes global cooling”, but “X causes global warming first, and then volcanic activity, after which there is relative global cooling, both because of the particulates and because we’ve passed the peak of the cycle of variable X”.
tgmccoy:
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Indeed, you are right- the blast made the landslide, not the other way around. The video of the eruption is the most dramatic nature film ever, do you have a link where it might be viewed?
Stephen Singer says: December 20, 2012 at 9:06 pm
Just read the abstract of this study. They mention detection of ‘Milankovitch periodicities in volcanic output across the Pleistocene-Holocene ice age”. It’s curious that the above article does not mention this at all.
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Yes, the title of the study tells the tale: “A detection of Milankovitch frequencies in global volcanic activity”
But that is not what hooks the funding. So the press release talks about post-glacial isostatic rebound, which can be linked to…….Global Warming! Hot Dog!
Correlation or causation?
Connecting dots in a fractally complex phase space is the narrative fallacy run rampant. Popper, Taleb, demarcation problem, inductive failure, not falsifiable.
2kevin says:
As I recall it wasn’t exactly the same. The Iceland conjecture was a jumped to conclusion on much smaller scale.
Ok, let’s say we’re all on a large sailboat. Someone comes up and says some kids drained the 250 gallon waste water storage tank into the ocean as a prank and now we are in danger of tipping over. We all laugh. But then someone comes up and says some kids threw 10,000 pounds of ballast overboard as a prank and now we’re in danger of tipping over. Nobody laughs.
Scale matters.
100 years of melting of a modern (small) ice volume vs 4,000 years of melting a glacial period ice volume (huge).
Looks plausible. Canada land mass is still rebounding after the last time there was about a mile of ice over most of the country. There is no doubt that imbalances and movements (changes) within the thin surface crust are likely to open or close conduits for magma to reach the surface so a relationship seems likely. After all, the surface layer crust is extremely thin (relatively speaking solid land is like a thin skin floating on hot gooey plastic rock just below the surface) and the mantle actually sticks out in a few spots (like Gros Morne).
Here’s my theory. When the Earth warms, the speed of tectonic motion increases, Hence volcanic action increases. Warm earth moves easier than frozen earth. This idea begs the question: Was tectonic plate speed constant as the Earth’s temperature changed?
vukcevic says:
December 20, 2012 at 11:40 pm
When oscillations in the geomagnetic field are combined with solar oscillations, relatively good approximation of the natural variability is obtained
As discussed in every thread on similar topics, that correlation is spurious
By the way, doomsday here in South Florida is pretty nice. Maybe some showers later today.
If every day were doomsday, I’d be OK with that.
“The periods of high volcanic activity followed fast, global temperature increases and associated rapid ice melting”
Soooo according to that the most volcanically active period in the last umpteen thousand years would have been right at the end of the younger dryas and right at the end of the preceding warm period that collapsed before it could become an interglacial ? Can any geologists on confirm/deny that ?
And Yes I could look it up Myself but it`s late and I`m too tired to start searching for relevant material on the net , especially relevant material that looks interesting.
” The impact from man-made warming is still unclear based on our current understanding” says Dr Kutterolf.”
If he just hadn’t said that.
It is unclear, based on our current understanding, that any possible effect to the climate by man is even discernible, so why even mention it?
More grant money perhaps?
They need research $ — ok — but this isn’t so new …
“In general, volcanic eruptions can have a strong short-term impact on climate. Conversely, the idea that climate may also affect volcanic eruptions on a global scale and over long periods of time is completely new. […] The next step is to investigate shorter-term historical variations to better understand implications for the present day.”
Some readers here will recall that in spring 2010 I illustrated that:
a) IVI2, SAOT, MSI, & DVI are coherent with Southern Ocean temperature, SouthEast Pacific Ocean temperature, winter (DJFM) integral of NAO, & north pole geomagnetic field jerks.
b) at interannual timescales VEI is spatiotemporally turbulently coherent with the Chandler wobble, QBO, ENSO, & solar wind speed.
Aggregate laminarity of multiscale multivariate turbulent spatiotemporal fluid coupling IS OBSERVED. There’s no need and moreover no sensible reason to speculate about existence. Macroscopic properties ARE CLEAR.
“Apart from all other reasons, the parameters of the geoid depend on the distribution of water over the planetary surface.” — Nikolay Sidorenkov
Micromodelers can have their neverending controversies about how to micromodel underpinning spatially localized temporal event series details, but their grey micromodeling disputes & discussions canNOT touch our black & white macroscopic view.
The laws of large numbers & conservation of angular momentum give global constraints that are beyond the limits of sensible dispute, so dark agents of ignorance &/or deception rudely attempting to distort, obfuscate, & otherwise harass can have a cold splash of water in the face and if that isn’t enough to entice sobriety we have an ethical duty to outright ban them from our community for promoting dangerous 2+2=5 social intractability.
vukcevic says:
December 20, 2012 at 11:40 pm
When oscillations in the geomagnetic field are combined with solar oscillations, relatively good approximation of the natural variability is obtained
As discussed in every thread on this and similar topics, that ‘correlation’ is completely spurious.
vukcevic says:
December 21, 2012 at 12:43 am
There is also intriguing correlation between the Ap index and volcanic activity in the N. Hemisphere
Yet another spurious correlation. There is no relationship between geomagnetic storms and tectonic activity: http://www.leif.org/research/Earthquake-Activity.png
Not a model in sight? Yes? No?
If you are going to do a multi-variate statistical analysis you have to have some kind of mathematical model to process the data. The key issues are: How well does your model represent reality? How well is the model specified? What statistical techniques were applied? How good is the data going into the model? These were the things that were emphasized when I was going through extensive training in statistical modeling. If the model comforms to the rules of linear algebra and yields a finite solution, you will get some kind of result, not matter what data you throw into the model or how poorly it is specified. A lot of that is the problem with the high priests of the Church of AGW: poorly understood processes; poorly specified models; really iffy data.
@ur momisugly Stephen Rasey
“How did the Mayans know we’d be measuring time from Greenwich, England?
They recognized logical necessity. Where else could one measure it from?
Having not read more than the abstract something that strikes me is that this is a theory based on observation of some correlation (likely not a good one). They note that sea level rise corresponds with a delayed increase in volcanic activity. OK…but what we know from the rock record is that sea level changes are directly correlated with increased plate tectonic activity. Plate tectonic activity on the other hand has had different levels of activity (as demonstrated by paleomag) throughout the entire observable period, independent of the presence of global ice sheets. And it goes without saying that increased speed of subduction of oceanic plates would result in increased partial melt rising in back arc settings resulting in increased volcanism. The ring of fire which I believe is the subject of their study sits along these subducting plate margins. So at this point using an Ochams razor approach I would suggest that the correlation they are seeing has nothing whatsoever to do with ice melt and everything to do with changes in plate tectonic activity for other reasons, perhaps changes in external forces such as tidal forces or the earths rotation or more likely changes in dynamics within the upper mantle.
[snip . . OT . . mod]
An interesting Sea Level chart, 22,000 – 6,000 years ago, “Western Pacific Post Glacial Sea-Level History.” Yellow River sub-aqueous delta.
Liu, J.P., Milliman, J.D., Gao, S. and Cheng, P., 2004. Holocene development of the Yellow River’s subaqueous delta, North Yellow Sea. Marine Geology, 209(1-4): 45-67.
http://www4.ncsu.edu/~jpliu/sealevel/Liu_Postglacial_Sealevel.jpg
J.P. Liu (North Carolina State Univ, Sea Level Change Lab) is a prolific author:
http://www.meas.ncsu.edu/sealevel/publications.html
The Electric Universe model has a simple explanation. All bodies in the solar system are embedded in an electric glow discharge which has numerous geophysical effects including climate, auroras, earthquake and volcanoes. There are numerous articles and papers at holoscience.com that discuss the evidences that suggest this conclusion. http://www.holoscience.com/wp/electric-earthquakes/
There’s probably a third factor involved which affects both climate and volcanic activitiy. If Piers Corbyn of weatheraction.com in UK is right, that third factor is solar activity.
Great way to get funding for your field of science – find an AGW link !
@vukcevic (December 20, 2012 at 11:40 pm)
The dark agents of ignorance &/or deception cannot hide from the brightest lights.
Caution: Become lucidly aware that there are VERY serious errors in the article you cite here:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/EarthNV.htm
Hierarchical distortion is unsustainable. The errors WILL be corrected in future.
The laws of large numbers & conservation of angular momentum are NOT anthropogenic.
More general comment:
You NEED to stop ignoring thermal wind. I recommend that you voluntarily suspend your contributions until you get a handle on it. If such suspension does not come voluntarily, it’s my responsibility to recommend that the community consider giving you a helping hand. Ignoring thermal wind is a GRAVE error.
Milankovitch cycles are reflections of changes in orbital mechanics. These would be expressed on earth as changes in tidal-body forces, rotation rate, and the angle between tidal force and rotation axis.
These effects could more plausibly influence volcanic triggers
The whole “climate change-ice melt-sea level change” involves too much time lag for detectable correlation
And, BTW, Central American volcanoes are located many miles from the sea coasts, so less likely to sense any sea-level gravity-change signal