From the University of Tennessee at Knoxville this gives a whole new meaning to “release the Kraken”.
University of Tennessee study predicts extreme climate in Eastern US
Results show the region will be hotter and wetter
From extreme drought to super storms, many wonder what the future holds for the climate of the eastern United States. A study conducted by researchers at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, does away with the guessing.
Results show the region will be hotter and wetter.
Joshua Fu, a civil and environmental engineering professor, and Yang Gao, a graduate research assistant, developed precise scales of cities which act as a climate crystal ball seeing high resolution climate changes almost 50 years into the future.
The study found that heat waves will become more severe in most regions of the eastern United States and, that both the Northeast and Southeast will see a drastic increase in precipitation.
The findings are published in the Nov. 6 edition of Environmental Research Letters.
Harnessing the supercomputing power of UT’s Kraken and Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) Jaguar (now Titan, the fastest in the world), the researchers combined high-resolution topography, land use information and climate modeling. Then they used dynamical downscaling to develop their climate model results. Dynamical downscaling allowed the researchers to develop climate scales as small as four square kilometers.
“Instead of studying regions, which is not useful when examining extreme weather, dynamical downscaling allows us to study small areas such as cities with a fine resolution,” said Fu, who is also a professor within the UT-ORNL Bredesen Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Graduate Education (CIRE).
The researchers evaluated extreme events along with daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation. For the 23 states east of the Mississippi River, they analyzed the present-day climate from 2001 to 2004 and predicted the future climate from 2057 to 2059. This is the first study to predict heat waves for the top 20 cities in the eastern U.S. For example, Nashville will see a temperature rise of 3.21 degrees Celsius and Memphis will see a rise of 2.18 degrees Celsius.
In comparing present climate to future, the researchers found that heat waves will become more severe throughout the eastern part of the nation. The Northeast and eastern Midwest will experience a greater increase in heat waves than the Southeast, which will almost equalize the temperatures between the future North and current South.
“Currently, the mean heat wave duration is about four days in the Northeast and eastern Midwest and five days in the Southeast,” said Fu. “By the end of the 2050s, the Northeast and eastern Midwest will be gaining on the Southeast by increasing two days.”
In addition, the Northeast and eastern Midwest are likely to suffer from steeper increases in the severity of heat waves.
“While the Southeast has the highest intensity in heat waves, the northeast is likely to experience the highest increase,” said Fu. “We are looking at temperature increases of 3 to 5 degrees Celsius, with New York experiencing the highest hike.”
Both the Northeast and Southeast will experience an increase of precipitation of 35 percent or more. Most coastal states will see the greatest increase, of about 150 millimeters a year. Taking into consideration heat waves and extreme precipitation, the Northeast shows the largest increases in precipitation. This suggests a greater risk of flooding.
“It is important that the nation take actions to mitigate the impact of climate change in the next several decades,” said Fu. “These changes not only cost money—about a billion a year in the U.S.—but they also cost lives.”
Fu and Gao collaborated with researchers at Emory University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. They received assistance from the National Center for Computational Sciences, the UT-ORNL Joint Institute for Computational Sciences and UT’s National Institute for Computational Sciences.
UPDATE: I forgot to mention, that when they get this supercomputer online at Oak Ridge, it will take even more guesswork out of climate and weather prediction. – Anthony
Bangs head on desk repeatedly —– Arrrrgggggg
As mentioned above, how about a validity check please predict the weather on Tuesday, July 2 2013 in New York city with daytime peak temperature accurate to +/- .01 deg C
Larry
‘By the end of the 2050s’ when will both be dead and therefore be in no position to have the BS nature of our claims rammed down our throats . Meanwhile on the back of these claims we hopping to get another buck load of research funding and perhaps an invite to one of those ‘beach front ‘ environmental conferences where for minim work we can enjoy a few days of luxury with the bills picked up by the suckers of Joe public . the Northeast and eastern Midwest will be gaining on the Southeast by increasing two days.”
They need two super computers so they can agree with one another. /sarc.
Steven Mosher says: @ur momisugly December 17, 2012 at 2:38 pm
“The solutions, however, need not rely on mitigation ( cutting carbon) in fact anything we do now is not likely to effect weather on 2050. Adaptation in the form of better heat wave warning and changes to cities like cool pavements, porous pavements, white and green roofs, and cooling centers for the elderly will reduce deaths. We should be doing that regardless of what climate science says or does not say”
I entirely agree with everything Mr Mosher says in the above paragraph and would add only that similar provision be made for the effects of cold spells.
Darren Potter says:
December 17, 2012 at 11:13 am
Louis says: “It must be true. They used a supercomputer!”
Supercomputers enable one to make more and bigger mistakes, Faster!
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And to a much more detailed and accurate level.
cn
What a waste of time, money and energy. Everyone knows 99942 Apophis will strike the earth in 2036.
“””””…..Gary says:
December 17, 2012 at 10:48 am
they analyzed the present-day climate from 2001 to 2004 and predicted the future climate from 2057 to 2059
Well there’s your problem right there. ;-)…..”””””
So how come they started with four years of climate from 2001 to 2004; and after supercomputing it, they only end up with three years of climate in 2057 to 2059 ?
What happens to all those petabits of climate that simply vanished ?
FU BAR perhaps? or just FU EE
The SE US has had decreasing temperatures for the past 50 years.
If rising temperatures mean the Great Lakes are not frozen solid in winter, think of the economic benefits to cities like Chicago and the US in general.
As thing are now, a large portion of the mid-west economy needs to shut down during the winter. What would it mean to the mid-west if instead of one crop a year they could plant two as happens in Mexico and southern California?
Warming is not a threat, it is an opportunity.
Bob Kutz says:
December 17, 2012 at 11:47 am
Well, at least they were smart enough not to predict anything we can check in the next 10 years. That is the real lesson of James Hansen; don’t make any predictions that can be checked during your professional lifetime
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I don’t know about that Bob.
It seems if they predict a 35% increase in precipitation in the NE by 2057 (that’s a 1% increase per year over the next 35 years) with Nashville seeing a temperature rise of 3.21 degrees Celsius (that’s almost 1/10 of a degree per year) and Memphis a rise of 2.18 degrees Celsius we should be able to monitor their progress. We should know something by 2020 unless they’re saying no change until 2057 then poof.
What am I thinking? A crystal ball?????????
cn
What odds is their bookie taking?
Oops.
57-12=45
cn
Did they happen to mention which version of WayForward Tech.’s Anthem was used to produce the results?
Dr Fu and Mr Gao, please turn your amazing super computer model loose on the Western United States. I want to know what days to plan my ski vacations for next year.
I believe they have a term for things like this in the medical field. Something to do with the sound a duck makes.
According to the predictions made by the organic super computer inside my skull, University of Tennessee professors of environmental propaganda will face increasing cognitive impairment from their continued use of crystal meth, which they claim helps them to see into the future….
Model, model on the wall,
Who’s the scariest of them all…
Fu me once, same on Fu. Fu me twice, shame on Fu, too….
Let’s see….. If you double this, tweak that, ignore this, square that, don’t even consider that thing over there, times 35 years….. PRESTO!! Warmaggedon!!
Just what my patrons paying for the study requested…
Isn’t *sigh*ence great!…..
Didn’t Fu get the memo that 1) no warming trend in 16 years and 2) there’s no statistical correlation between CO2/extreme weather?… Oh….right… “IF you double this, tweak that, ignore this…..Sorry….my bad….
[Same shame on me? ]
Ya know, if someone could rewrite the code in those darned things to expose the super-duper-fast computers to experience the same moisture and heatwaves they predict, this prediction nonsense of gloom and doom could be solved tonight. I would wager that at atmosphere of air conditioned bliss would be in our future.
Make the computer and its owners pay for gloom and doom 50 years hence. Presto, no more gloom and doom and then we could get back to meteorologists telling us when to grab our sweater and umbrellas.
buzzed
“it seems like the researchers are making some valuable progress in regional climate modeling.”
sorry, but BS !!!
Now if they were to create TESTABLE prediction , with VERIFIABLE outcomes.. that would be progress..
Climate Science has yet to manage this basic test of real science
The paper is even worse than the press release.
“Thus, it is important that the northeast take actions to mitigate the impact from climate change in the next several decades.”
The contribution of the northeast to mitigation “results” (LOL) could only be minuscule at best. Reading may be fundamental but you’d think scientists would have basic math down pat. Gail Combs is on the right track, climate science has strayed from science similar to alchemy. At the very root of science is the drive to explain phenomena without myth. The alchemist was driven by a search for the philosopher’s stone (& etc.) and climate science seems to driven by a search to feed human arrogance (& etc.).
Granted, the press release makes the whole modeling effort and the conclusions sound silly. However, this comment stream seems to me to be unusually short on substantive criticism and long on cliches (GIGO, supercomputer jokes, etc). Does anyone actually know enough about regional climate modeling to know if the paper (not the press release) has any merit? I don’t, but surely some do, and I would be interested in hearing specific evidence-based criticisms of the paper.
while everyone has been sitting on their asses someone has actually gotten the solution set.
And all everyone here can do is sour grapes!!!
I’m sooooo sad…
🙂
“This “crystal ball” they’re talking about — is that one of those black crystal balls with a big number 8 on it?
More like one of those balls you shake to create snow.. ….appears to be one of the many thing “global warming” causes.
These guys must be really brilliant – perfect software, all conditions that affect weather are known, and their future values. Wow…I guess the opium dens at UT are open and in business.
Nashville will see a temperature rise of 3.21 degrees Celsius and Memphis will see a rise of 2.18 degrees Celsius…..unless we go into an ice age then all bets are off.