From the University of Tennessee at Knoxville this gives a whole new meaning to “release the Kraken”.
University of Tennessee study predicts extreme climate in Eastern US
Results show the region will be hotter and wetter
From extreme drought to super storms, many wonder what the future holds for the climate of the eastern United States. A study conducted by researchers at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, does away with the guessing.
Results show the region will be hotter and wetter.
Joshua Fu, a civil and environmental engineering professor, and Yang Gao, a graduate research assistant, developed precise scales of cities which act as a climate crystal ball seeing high resolution climate changes almost 50 years into the future.
The study found that heat waves will become more severe in most regions of the eastern United States and, that both the Northeast and Southeast will see a drastic increase in precipitation.
The findings are published in the Nov. 6 edition of Environmental Research Letters.
Harnessing the supercomputing power of UT’s Kraken and Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) Jaguar (now Titan, the fastest in the world), the researchers combined high-resolution topography, land use information and climate modeling. Then they used dynamical downscaling to develop their climate model results. Dynamical downscaling allowed the researchers to develop climate scales as small as four square kilometers.
“Instead of studying regions, which is not useful when examining extreme weather, dynamical downscaling allows us to study small areas such as cities with a fine resolution,” said Fu, who is also a professor within the UT-ORNL Bredesen Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Graduate Education (CIRE).
The researchers evaluated extreme events along with daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation. For the 23 states east of the Mississippi River, they analyzed the present-day climate from 2001 to 2004 and predicted the future climate from 2057 to 2059. This is the first study to predict heat waves for the top 20 cities in the eastern U.S. For example, Nashville will see a temperature rise of 3.21 degrees Celsius and Memphis will see a rise of 2.18 degrees Celsius.
In comparing present climate to future, the researchers found that heat waves will become more severe throughout the eastern part of the nation. The Northeast and eastern Midwest will experience a greater increase in heat waves than the Southeast, which will almost equalize the temperatures between the future North and current South.
“Currently, the mean heat wave duration is about four days in the Northeast and eastern Midwest and five days in the Southeast,” said Fu. “By the end of the 2050s, the Northeast and eastern Midwest will be gaining on the Southeast by increasing two days.”
In addition, the Northeast and eastern Midwest are likely to suffer from steeper increases in the severity of heat waves.
“While the Southeast has the highest intensity in heat waves, the northeast is likely to experience the highest increase,” said Fu. “We are looking at temperature increases of 3 to 5 degrees Celsius, with New York experiencing the highest hike.”
Both the Northeast and Southeast will experience an increase of precipitation of 35 percent or more. Most coastal states will see the greatest increase, of about 150 millimeters a year. Taking into consideration heat waves and extreme precipitation, the Northeast shows the largest increases in precipitation. This suggests a greater risk of flooding.
“It is important that the nation take actions to mitigate the impact of climate change in the next several decades,” said Fu. “These changes not only cost money—about a billion a year in the U.S.—but they also cost lives.”
Fu and Gao collaborated with researchers at Emory University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. They received assistance from the National Center for Computational Sciences, the UT-ORNL Joint Institute for Computational Sciences and UT’s National Institute for Computational Sciences.
UPDATE: I forgot to mention, that when they get this supercomputer online at Oak Ridge, it will take even more guesswork out of climate and weather prediction. – Anthony
Ahem…would anyone out there like to buy a some insurance?
If they can do it that well fifty years out, could they please let us know what will happen next week?
So why can’t they use the data to predict the next ten years and put their pensions on it?
I asked my rare, antique and collectible magic eightball if this study was legit. I shook it fifty-three times to simulate independent computer runs. The robust answer it gave was: “Not at this time”.
Go figure.
Come on. Someone quote Yogi Berra’s comment on predicting the future.
“…dynamical downscaling to develop their climate model results.”
I do hope they took into account parasitic oscillations caused by interstage feedback of the Eccles-Jordan mono-stable double-diode flip-flop.
Louis says: “I wonder if their program would be able to accurately predict the climate for 1957 to 1959 using the data for 1901 to 1904? I sincerely doubt it.”
Picky, picky, picky!
john robertson says: “Well my comments are already covered. Don’t Wu know April 1st is in a few more months?”
It’s December, so we’re dealing with Yule Fools, here.
Every year we have a spate of regional alarms of climate catastrophe coinciding with the new Congressional class. There will be one for every region. In my State the seashore will no longer be habitable. Sand beaches will be a thing of the past, and we will have no industry. But some money to the wailers will help. And Americans must change their evil life style, or at least those that are not part of the elite, who must maintain their ‘carbon footprint’, ie wealth, for the benitfit of all.
“This is the first study to predict heat waves for the top 20 cities in the eastern U.S. For example, Nashville will see a temperature rise of 3.21 degrees Celsius and Memphis will see a rise of 2.18 degrees Celsius.”
That’s an awful lot of significant digits for a prediction 50 years in the future. A range and/or error bars would have been much, much more appropriate for a study like this even though they would be based on the same fantasyland projection.
This is the revealed truth.
As noted many times above, and heretofore – GIGO.
Eric H. says:
December 17, 2012 at 12:11 pm
I tried Eric H.’s 8 ball, and it is ‘definite’ that a cane toad will win the 2013 Grand National Steeplechase [4+ miles, over forminable fences, with the animals carrying at least 10 stone [140 pounds, or about 64 Kg]].
And that, too, is the revealed truth.
Steve C says:
December 17, 2012 at 11:22 am
Quite right. The 8 ball and I both concur.
Seriously, if I tried a stunt like this by Fu & Gao – a cupid stunt – in my job in the private sector, I would be seeking employment by nighfall.
beesaman says:
December 17, 2012 at 11:09 am
Just as long as when these alarmist predictions fail to materialise the fools get shown the door and have to retake their PhDs…
Some sort of responsibility and accountability should be expected after all.
But accountabilityand responsibility do not exist in the wider public sector [Government, academia, what we in the UK call QUANGOes – quasi-governmental organisations, much of public education, th civil service, the BBC, etc.]
. And these citizens have votes, and access to the media [quite rightly, but do they alwasys promote what is best for the country – or for themselves?].
Mike Smith says:
December 17, 2012 at 1:03 pm
….These clowns deserve a place in the Guinness Book of Records for the silliest “science” of all time.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I do not know, they have a heck of a lot of competition these days.
apparently the difference between a model and a modeller is that you have to feed rubbish into the model first!
That University should be very very embarrassed .
“… Nashville will see a temperature rise of 3.21 degrees Celsius and Memphis will see a rise of 2.18 degrees Celsius…”
At least they are willing to state with absolute certainty what the rise “will” be to two decimal places – can’t criticize them for not putting it out there.
Matt says:
December 17, 2012 at 1:37 pm
“This is the first study to predict heat waves for the top 20 cities in the eastern U.S. For example, Nashville will see a temperature rise of 3.21 degrees Celsius and Memphis will see a rise of 2.18 degrees Celsius.”
That’s an awful lot of significant digits for a prediction 50 years in the future. A range and/or error bars would have been much, much more appropriate….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>..
Here I will add them for you.
“….a temperature rise of 3.21 degrees Celsius +0.00/-13.21 and Memphis will see a rise of 2.18 degrees Celsius +0.82/-12.18.” This scientifically based on THIS data.
Looks like them ‘Volunteer Boys’ found a way to power their ‘Kraken’ with Moonshine !
Hay UT Bartender, I’ll have 5 of those with my 200,000 IPCC euros. XD
What is interesting is this paper is so far out in left field that no one in comments even bothers to try to refute it.
It is hard to believe this type of idiocy would take place in a junior high school class much less in our institutes of
higher brainwashinghigher learning.I think what is truly frightening is Joshua Fu is a civil engineering professor, he is teaching the people responsible for building bridges and sky scrapers – SHUDDER!
The reason why 2057 is the date is because no one will ever know if they were right or not. Any good psychic knows not to make predictions that fall within their own lifetime.
Too bad they didn’t enter the data for 1951 to 1955 then they would have had something to validate their model against.
What a lot of skeptics you are. Of course they are right. Do you know any computers that have ever got their models wrong ?
This is awesome!
Now we have a new benchmark for “ridiculous”!
Next time someone tells me the models are credible, I can point them to this!
So… if the “present day” is 2001-2004, how accurate is their 2011-2014 prediction? Just wondering. It’s funny, because both the “researchers” and “reporters” seem to be taking this seriously, as if it is some sort of valid achievement.
“Manfred says:
December 17, 2012 at 10:52 am
“Harnessing the supercomputing power of UT’s Kraken and Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) Jaguar (now Titan, the fastest in the world)…”
together with
“…dynamical downscaling to develop their climate model results.”
Gosh! Words fail me.”
Agreed – but do you know what is truly sad about all this. That some genuine scientists haven’t had access to these computers because these two arse-holes are time wasters.
Hotter, drier summers & warmer, wetter winters anyone?
They could have saved the tax payer billions if they had just consulted ‘Mystic Meg’ (astrologer) here in the Uk.
The BBC and Gaurdian can also look in their crystal balls and be relied upon to predict doom and gloom.
Umm.. I thought there were more than 23 states east of the Mississippi, or is there a mis-statement somewhere in the summary?