Guest Post by David Middleton
Yesterday, WUWT covered the issue from one angle, and blew Hertsgaard’s riduculous claims out of the water. Today, here’s another independently arrived at conclusion that suggests Hertsgaard’s claims are pure fantasy.
It is apparently becoming too warm to grow wheat…
Bakken Oil Boom and Climate Change Threaten the Future of Pasta
Dec 10, 2012 12:00 AM EST
Temperatures are rising. Rainfalls are shifting. Droughts are intensifying. What will we eat when wheat won’t grow.
A world without pasta seems inconceivable. Mac-and-cheese-loving children across the United States would howl in protest. Italy might suffer a cultural heart attack. Social unrest could explode in northern China, where noodles are the main staple.
But if humans want to keep eating pasta, we will have to take much more aggressive action against global warming. Pasta is made from wheat, and a large, growing body of scientific studies and real-world observations suggest that wheat will be hit especially hard as temperatures rise and storms and drought intensify in the years ahead.
[…]
Three grains—wheat, corn, and rice—account for most of the food humans consume. All three are already suffering from climate change, but wheat stands to fare the worst in the years ahead, for it is the grain most vulnerable to high temperatures. That spells trouble not only for pasta but also for bread, the most basic food of all. (Pasta is made from the durum variety of wheat, while bread is generally made from more common varieties, such as red spring.)
“Wheat is a cool-season crop. High temperatures are negative for its growth and quality, no doubt about it,” says Frank Manthey, a professor at North Dakota State University who advises the North Dakota Wheat Commission. Already, a mere 1 degree Fahrenheit of global temperature rise over the past 50 years has caused a 5.5 percent decline in wheat production, according to David Lobell, a professor at Stanford University’s Center on Food Security and the Environment.
[…]
This is really funny because it wasn’t that long ago that it was too cold to grow wheat…
Little Ice Age
by Edna Sun
February 15 , 2005 — It was only a few hundred years ago that the earth experienced its last ice age. Global temperatures started falling during the 1300s and hit their lowest points in the late 1700s and early 1800s. New Yorkers could walk from Manhattan to Staten Island across a frozen harbor, while Londoners held “Frost Fairs” on a solid Thames River. Glaciers advanced in China, New Zealand, and Peru, and snow covered Ethiopian peaks. Diseases, aided by the change in climate, spread quickly throughout Europe and Asia. Iced waters delayed shipping from ports, growing glaciers engulfed farms and villages, tree lines receded, and agriculture deteriorated, leading to centuries of poor harvests, famine, and social unrest. Though the average global temperature dropped only one to two degrees Celsius below what they are today, the cold spell nevertheless drastically affected life at this time.
– – – – – – – – – – – –
Global temperatures naturally fluctuate slightly from year to year. However, in the past 10,000 years, there have been three relatively long global cold spells. The Little Ice Age (LIA) is the most recent and best documented, especially in Europe
It may have had a greater effect on history than its predecessors because it immediately followed several centuries of unusually warm temperatures. Between 800 and 1200, Europe basked in a warm spell known as the “Medieval Warm Period” (MWP); temperatures were 2 to 3 degrees Celsius higher than they are today.
[…]
Fatal Harvest
During the LIA, summers were wet and unusually cold and the growing season was shortened. Widespread crop failure resulted in famine that killed millions of people. To avoid starvation, people would eat the planting seed for next season, which created more of a shortage the following year.
During the MWP European farmers primarily grew cereal grains such as wheat, barley, and rye, which flourished. But the long thin stalks of these crops made them vulnerable to the strong winds and heavy rainfall that came during the LIA. The temperature drop in northern Europe made it difficult to raise these grains and many farmers gave up trying. Less grain was produced, creating a severe shortage and raising prices.
[…]
“[A] mere 1 degree Fahrenheit of global temperature rise over the past 50 years has caused a 5.5 percent decline in wheat production.” Yet wheat and cereal production flourished during the Medieval Warm Period, when “temperatures were 2 to 3 degrees Celsius higher than they are today”… 
Obviously wheat can’t handle any temperature. The LIA was too cold. Today it’s too warm for wheat, even though the wheat flourished during the warmer MWP. I guess the Goldilocks temperature for wheat must have occurred sometime between 1975 and 1980, since Newsweek reported that we were on the verge of a new ice age in 1975 and anthropogenic global warming began with the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 (intentional sarcasm).
Whenever I run into an Alarmists Gone Wild non sequitur, I always check the math.
Wheat production data for the period 1961-2010 are available from FAOSTAT and temperature data can easily be downloaded from Wood For Trees.
This explains why wheat liked the Medieval Warm Period and disliked the Little Ice Age.
The only explanation for this sort of nonsense, is Alarmists Gone Wild…
“Wheat is a cool-season crop. High temperatures are negative for its growth and quality, no doubt about it,” says Frank Manthey, a professor at North Dakota State University who advises the North Dakota Wheat Commission. Already, a mere 1 degree Fahrenheit of global temperature rise over the past 50 years has caused a 5.5 percent decline in wheat production, according to David Lobell, a professor at Stanford University’s Center on Food Security and the Environment.
Wheat yield and production have more than doubled over the past 50 years.
I should have put my comment on the 5.5% here instead of the other thread.
The 5.5% is totally without foundation.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/12/climate-craziness-of-the-week-mark-hertsgaard-embarrases-himself-with-the-end-of-pasta/#comment-1172250
Out here in Kern County, CA we get yields that are 2-3 times that of wheat grown in Kansas, where 1/5 of the wheat comes from. This is largely due to irrigation. For those that have never been through Kern County, one of the descriptions that has NEVER been used for this place is “cold”. I think the wheat crops are going to do just fine.
Not to worry.
I’m certain Monsanto can genetically modify wheat strains to grow in hot weather.
There are real threats to the staff of life, and they are indeed anthropogenic: agreements with China to legislate Agricultural Sustainability policies.
For example, “EU, China agree on ag sustainability”
http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/EU_China_agree_on_ag_sustainability_999.html
“In the future, however, farmers will have fewer water and energy resources, meaning they will have to produce more with less.
In response, the United Nations is advocating agricultural techniques that draw on “nature’s contribution to agricultural growth,” for example, soil organic matter, water flow regulation, pollination and natural predation of pests.
The FAO report calls for a reduction in the massive amounts of waste in traditional agriculture and urges the introduction of “improved crop varieties that are resilient to climate change and use nutrients, water and external inputs more efficiently.”
Why is China now asking for agreements from Europe to end the use of pest controls, high-yield cultivars, and chemical fertilizers? Does anyone honestly think this is to save the planet? Adam Smith said that droughts and war cause dearth, but it is the violence of “well-intentioned” governments that changes dearth to famine. There simply is not enough organic matter to fertilize depleted fields! Does anyone think that restricting water and reversing agricultural advancements is a good thing? If so, is it possible that there may be some unforeseen consequences of China’s agreement with Europeans? Any undesirable side effects? Any problems? Please.
Here is link to the full article:
http://homepage.agron.ntu.edu.tw/~menchi/2012%20%A7@ur momisugly%AA%AB%BE%C7%AFS%BD%D7/Climate%20Trends%20and%20Global%20Crop%20Production%20Since%201980.pdf
The Aussies have it. Back in the mid 80’s the CSIRO was predicting that global warming was coming and that it would be good for Australia.The prediction was that the wheat belt in the Eastern part of Australia would migrate in extent one hundred kilometers inland and the Western Australian wheat belt would diminish. The net effect would be total bumper crops for Australia.
Australia, the granary of the empire in the nineteenth and twentieth century has through the work of the CSIRO plant breeding produced high protein, drought tolerant wheat. If it is not hot and dry at the harvest then the crop is wasted.On the land in wheatgrowing areas the farmers are harvesting twenty four hours a day under lights to get the wheat in.
Not that any cooling or warming has occurred in the last sixteen years.
If any professors are worried about the future of wheat in the US or Europe they only need to adapt like we have in Australia.The wheat certainly can.
As for the present CSIRO, that is another story.
Supporting material for David Lobell’s article claiming 5.5% fall in wheat production:
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2011/05/05/science.1204531.DC1/Lobell.SOM.REVISED2.pdf
In fairness to Mr. Hertsgaard, someone in another Internet forum I frequent suggested that maybe the article was just referring to durum production in North Dakota. The headline did mention the Bakken (mostly in North Dakota) and cited a durum expert (Frank Manthey, a professor at North Dakota State University) and durum is used in pasta.
Durum is a cool-season crop and that warmer summers might have an impact on North Dakota durum production. Production and yield data are available from the North Dakota Wheat Commission. A cross-plot of North Dakota durum yield vs. seasonal temperatures does support the claim that warmer summers could cause a drop in durum yield…
North Dakota Durum Yield vs. Seasonal Temperatures
A 1 °F rise in average summer temperature could reduce durum yield by 1.6 bushels per acre. That’s in the neighborhood of a 5.5% decline.
However, all of the “global warming” in North Dakota over the past 50 years has occurred in winter…
North Dakota Seasonal Average Temperatures
Winter warming has no correlation to durum yield (R² = 0.0194).
Durum production and acreage planted increased from 1961-1981 and then have decreased since 1981, while yield has steadily increased.
Total North Dakota wheat production has increased over the last 50 years.
North Dakota Historical Wheat Production
China has also gotten agreements with the USDA:
U.S., China Sign Plan of Strategic Cooperation in Agriculture
Des Moines, Iowa, Feb. 16, 2012—Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and China’s
“Minister of Agriculture Han Changfu today signed an historic Plan of Strategic Cooperation that will guide the two countries’ agricultural relationship for the next 5 years. The plan was signed as part of the U.S.-China Agricultural Symposium held today at the World Food Prize Hall of Laureates. The symposium focused on bilateral cooperation in the areas of food safety, food security and sustainable agriculture, as well as enhanced business relationships between the two countries.”
These agreements do include the enforcement of “sustainable” agriculture. This includes organic and local-only policies, as well as scary bunkum water shortage models. While I lack the specifics of the agreement, I think China’s interest in “sustainable” farming policies for the western countries should be compared with EU agreement, and the fact that Chief Sha Zukan was the Secretary General of Rio +20.
“A world without pasta seems inconceivable. Mac-and-cheese-loving children across the United States would howl in protest. Italy might suffer a cultural heart attack. Social unrest could explode in northern China, where noodles are the main staple.”
“Howl in protest.” USA
“Cultural heart attack.” Italy
“Social unrest could explode.” China
Hmmmm. You know? I think they might be trying to frighten us…
These guys are getting pathetic.
A lot of people have already pointed out that wheat grows in Australia. You know, the warm country. Aussies grow a lot of wheat and it does very very well. For those hard of understanding: A LOT OF WHEAT. IT GROWS BRILLIANTLY HERE IN SUNNY, WARM AUSTRALIA.
There’s nothing in either the paper or the supporting materials that supports Lobell’s assertion that “[A] mere 1 degree Fahrenheit of global temperature rise over the past 50 years has caused a 5.5 percent decline in wheat production.”
And the FAOSTAT data (Figure 1) clearly show that global wheat production and crop yield have more than doubled over the past 50 years.
“Wheat is a cool-season crop.”
My understanding is farmers plant ‘winter wheat’ because most of the precipitation in their area falls during the cool seasons.
Whenever I see nonsense like this from the MSM, after I stop laughing, I think I should submit an article, filled with equations, graphs, and metric system units, that claims global warming is due to the polar bears, (PBGW),
But, I would probably win a Nobel Prize, millions of dollars. Then my wife would be jealous of all the babes coming after me….
Wheat apparently originated in the Levant in a part of the Fertile Crescent cutting across Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, State of Palestine, Israel, Cyprus and Turkey. It will have to get damn hot in more northerly parts for us to see doomed wheat.
http://www.sciencefromisrael.com/app/home/contribution.asp?referrer=parent&backto=issue,2,14;journal,12,44;linkingpublicationresults,1:300170,1
I don’t suppose we’ll see this Manthey fellow coming here to defend his assertions against such a barrage of contrary evidence. Anyone know him?
/Mr Lynn
A hard freeze can kill a crop in one night. A growing season of hot temps still results in yield. Not great yield. But yield nonetheless. NOAA itself warns us of freezing temps. Cover your crops they say. Bring in your plants. Panic! Warning! …But hot days?… Eh. Put on cool clothes and keep your plants watered as best you can and you and your plants will survive. But one single night of freezing temperatures? The sirens scream out the warning!
The pasta panic is for the weak minded. Now if it’s grapes that are in trouble…PANIC!
And…. whatever happens, never underestimate the plant breeders:
took them only 40 years to make Brazil the biggest soyabean exporter in the world, in spite of the fact the crop was not suited to those latitudes:
http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1023%2FA%3A1024191913296
(Note also in the article the biological nitrogen fixing (BNF) capabilities which were also selected for.)
@Dario from NW Italy:
There are lots of cool climate crops. Pretty much any traditional food from a cold place. List way too long to put here, but for starters:
Most of the cole family. Kale (and the related “Russian Kale” that’s really a kale hybrid more closely related to rutabaga) and cabbages, mustards and broccoli along with all the oriental “choy” and related (like Napa Cabbage – that’s really a leaf making kind of turnip family member).
Then there’s the canola grown all over Canada (the “Can” in canola is from “Canada” where it was developed from rape seed – another cold area crop).
Then there’s peas. Really don’t like the heat.
Potatoes from the high cold Andes (that saved Europe’s butt in the LIA).
Parsnips like to overwinter in the ground as do turnips (that are part of the cole family so already mentioned indirectly).
Fava Beans ( I grow them in winter, though they will put up with summer heat if kept watered).
I think carrots too, but I’m not sure.
Spanish winter Black Radish. (and some of the oriental radishes – think Kim Che Fixings).
Garlic, leeks, onions too…
Oh, and chard and beets…
Pretty good list here, past the hoop frame DIY greenhouse:
http://www.cheapvegetablegardener.com/category/cold-season-crops
Celery and mustard greens too (though mustards are in the cole family so already mentioned)
Another list:
http://www.sunset.com/garden/garden-basics/cool-season-crops-00400000042441/
Buckwheat is a common ‘catch crop’ that’s very short season. There’s a lot of overlap between ‘short season’ and ‘cold season crops’. Note that buckwheat (the commercial kinds) originated in Russia:
http://www.jeffersoninstitute.org/pubs/buckwheat.shtml
I think I’ll stop here… but there are more…
Why mention it? Partly because it’s important to know that we can shift to those as it becomes too cold to grow other things in any given area…
Can’t end without mentioning that Barbarians (Hordes as in Hordeum) were named that by Romans as they were “Barley Eaters” (Latin name for Barley is Hordeum Vulgare…) Those were the people from the cold up north…
http://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu/Crops/Barley/Default.aspx
There’s a reason Scotch Whisky is made from Barley… and that the English swapped from wine (warm grapes) to beer (cold barley) when the M.Warm Period ended and the L.Ice Age began….
So there’s lots of foods from ‘cold places’ that can be grown in, well, cold places… (Though they often do well in warm – but not scorching hot – places too. For scorching hot places you use crops from those origins… Tepary Beans, Corn, Tomatoes… etc.)
Basically, it’s the match of the plant to the temperature more than any one temperature being idea… Well, other than that nothing much really grows under snow…
Luther Wu says:
“December 13, 2012 at 6:11 am
“We’ve all seen pictures of wheat harvest in progress, with huge combines cutting down vast acres of golden fields, but none of those pictures were taken in North Dakota.
The ND growing season is too short for wheat to ripen on the stalk, so the wheat is swathed and wind- rowed, then after drying in the field, the rows are picked up via special attachments to the combines.”
Luther, I don’t know where you are from but you are the one spouting nonsense. I live in North Dakota–have lived in the northeast south and southwest parts, and have worked in the wheat harvest and observed it for decades and windrowing wheat here is very rare.
Ken Smith
Ellendale ND
Did they revise the article in Newsweek?
I look at the web article at the Newsweek link and it says:
“Already, a mere 1 degree Fahrenheit of global temperature rise over the past 50 years has caused a 5.5 percent decline in wheat production compared to what would have occurred in the absence of global warming, according to a study published by David Lobell, a professor at Stanford University’s Center on Food Security and the Environment.”
Thus seeming to add the text: “compared to what would have occurred in the absence of global warming” compared to what is quoted in the discussion of the article above
This is what Lobell et al. appear to suggest in their paper, that production is reduced compared to their model. So it doesn’t matter that wheat production has increased, it hasn’t increased as much as the magical mystery model says it should have increased.
For the general public’s information the following is from Wikipedia –
”
Classes used in the United States:
Durum – Very hard, translucent, light-colored grain used to make semolina flour for pasta & bulghur; high in protein, specifically, gluten protein.
Hard Red Spring – Hard, brownish, high-protein wheat used for bread and hard baked goods. Bread Flour and high-gluten flours are commonly made from hard red spring wheat. It is primarily traded at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange.
Hard Red Winter – Hard, brownish, mellow high-protein wheat used for bread, hard baked goods and as an adjunct in other flours to increase protein in pastry flour for pie crusts. Some brands of unbleached all-purpose flours are commonly made from hard red winter wheat alone. It is primarily traded on the Kansas City Board of Trade. One variety is known as “turkey red wheat”, and was brought to Kansas by Mennonite immigrants from Russia.[35]
Soft Red Winter – Soft, low-protein wheat used for cakes, pie crusts, biscuits, and muffins. Cake flour, pastry flour, and some self-rising flours with baking powder and salt added, for example, are made from soft red winter wheat. It is primarily traded on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Hard White – Hard, light-colored, opaque, chalky, medium-protein wheat planted in dry, temperate areas. Used for bread and brewing.
Soft White – Soft, light-colored, very low protein wheat grown in temperate moist areas. Used for pie crusts and pastry. Pastry flour, for example, is sometimes made from soft white winter wheat.
Red wheats may need bleaching; therefore, white wheats usually command higher prices than red wheats on the commodities market.
…”
The seven classes have two predominate types.
Winter or spring wheats.
Winter is planted in late September ( in Kansas) germinates then goes into dormancy when the ground freezes. In order for the plant to tiller then flower the next spring, the wheat must go through a cold event. If you planted winter wheat in the spring, it would not reproduce or head till the next spring after it has gone through a period of dormancy from freezing temps.
The effect of a warmer environment would be to shift the growing region north,
On the other hand, once the kernel is formed hot weather can adversely affect the quality of the endosperm since the amount of carbohydrates placed into the kernel is governed by warm temperatures. This could be overcome by breeding.
The rest of the wheat would benefit from a longer growing season.
Oh yeah, one more thingie – I am off to the Grain Science Dept @ur momisugly Kansas State to use the flour milling equipment to mill malted barley for beer.
The question is what will warmer temps to do to barley production. Barley loves cool temps when the endosperm is being formed in the milk stage.
As for the desert durum in Kern County, CA – There is plenty of land in KS that makes 100 bushel/acre winter wheat without irrigation! It is only in the western 1/3 of the state where water is short enough to curtail cereal grain production.
And yes the remnants of hurricanes are always welcome in Kansas.
Wheat has more chromosomes, genes, and DNA than humans. Lotsa tricks and resources stashed away in that library …
I should have screen-capped the entire article. My quoted passage was cut & pasted directly from the original version. However, even with the added caveat, Dr. Lobell’s assertion is patently idiotic. Since 1961, global wheat yield has had a very positive correlation with temperature. Yield has increased at a rate of 22,397 Hg/Ha per 1 degree C of warming since 1961.
In Re; Ken Smith says:
December 14, 2012 at 6:04 am
In Re; Luther Wu says:
“December 13, 2012 at 6:11 am
Ken,
Bet you never thought someone who’s been to Ellendale ND would be on this board. My family is from Bowdon and Sykeston. If you don’t know where that is; 180 rotation of Jamestown to Ellendale. Almost dead center of ND. Small world.
If you are unfamiliar with a swather and a drapper combine head then you probably aren’t very old. That used to be the way of it, at least in central ND. Not so much any more, with better combines and genetics. I well remember the days of swatting wheat, leaving it lay a couple of weeks and then getting the combine all clogged up because it hadn’t sufficiently dried.
Anyway, Luther had a valid point, until modern combines and growing techniques arrived.
But they did use (and you still occasionally see it, even today) wheat being left in windrows and picked up with a drapper head latter on. Especially with a cold and wet spring. Luther; you are severely wrong. A lot of those pictures of combines running wing on wing and unloading on the go happen in North Dakota. Especially just west of Fargo on up to Grand Forks where the land is table top flat for miles on end.
Next thought; As it is; wheat grows from Central Texas all the way up into mid-Alberta and Saskatchewan. Across to the west coast and east through the mid south and up into the great lakes region. There is no way on earth a one degree temperature difference matters to the wheat crop. None whatsoever. This professor of whatever it is knows not the first thing about wheat.
I can refute the notion that wheat productivity has declined, on any basis you care to name; that is just a stupid assertion, easily dis-proven in any wheat harvesting region in the US. There may be some odd country out there in the world who’s wheat harvest has declined in the last 30 years, but they are far and away in the minority. In fact every nation with available data and level yields has also shows reduced fertilizer use during the intervals in which they show flat yield, according to a 2012 study out of Harvard. Revealing another situation in which policy goals are interfering with production levels. But there has been zero decline that I can determine.
Where’d this guy get his PHD? A gumball machine?