And now for something completely different

Note: before anyone pooh-poohs this article for being in a blog mostly about weather and climate, note the description on the masthead. Note also that I have recently experienced cancer in my family as I’m sure many readers have at some time, therefore it is relevant to me, and may be helpful to others, and that’s all that matters. – Anthony

Guest post by David Archibald

Before starting out in climate science in 2006, my main hobby was cancer research. To that end, I had co-invented a cancer drug with two professors from Purdue University, Professor Jim Morre and his wife Professor Dorothy Morre. I went on to lodge a patent on a benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) drug myself. I still operate in that space. Early in that journey, I was given the draft manuscript of a book on how isoflavones from soy and other legumes modulate the human female hormone system.

That was in 1998. The manuscript had been written by Dr Graham Kelly who had founded a company to commercialise isoflavone supplementation in men and women. Dr Kelly’s journey in cancer research started in the 1980s when a friend with bowel cancer asked him to look into the science of it. Dr Kelly was intrigued by the epidemiological differences in cancer rates between populations. For example, Japanese who migrate to the US go to the US breast cancer rate in a generation. The US breast cancer rate is five times the Japanese breast cancer rate. The difference in cancer rate is not genetic, it is obviously dietary. So what is the difference in diet that is causing the difference in cancer incidence? A big difference is isoflavone consumption. Amongst the Japanese, it is an average of 40 mg per day. The US average is 3 mg per day.

In Western countries, breast cancer and prostate cancer have the same incidence. In women, 11% get diagnosed with breast cancer in their lifetime and 5% die of it. In men, 11% get diagnosed with prostate cancer in their lifetime and 5% die of it. There are very big epidemiological differences in prostate cancer rates. As the following graph shows, the Vietnamese prostate cancer rate is one fortieth of the Western prostate cancer rate:

clip_image002

Defeating the scourge of a lot of common cancers is as simple as changing your diet. It is a bit like Vitamin C. If you don’t get any Vitamin C in your diet, you die of scurvy within three years. Pigs and dogs make their own Vitamin C, and presumably some precursor ape to humans had the ability to make it. Humans must have lost the ability for an evolutionary advantage. There are probably a large number of other plant molecules which we evolved to rely upon in our diet. We might not die in the near term if we don’t get them in our diet, but we suffer an increased incidence of degenerative diseases if we don’t. With respect to the dietary components that might cause the low Vietnamese prostate cancer rate, the national dish of Vietnam is called pho. It is a bowl of noodles and meat with three side dishes – bean sprouts, chillis and mint. The anticancer effect would be the result of synergistic blocking of the tNOX molecule on the external membrane of cancer cells by sulforaphane from the bean sprouts with capsaicin from the chilli peppers, stopping the overproduction of anti-apoptotic proteins and allowing the death receptors to trigger the apoptotic cascade of the caspases.

Back to Dr Kelly’s book, “Hormones with Harmony”. It is 70,000 words and goes into highly readable detail on how the daughter metabolites of isoflavones become human hormones in the body. They then become very useful in evening out the peaks and troughs of the body’s estrogenic hormones: estradiol, estrone and estriol. The book goes into detail on how the plant-derived hormones are beneficial in pms, mastalgia, endometriosis, uterine fibroids, uterine cancer, ovarian cancer, menopausal symptoms, osteoporosis, cardiovascular disease, cataracts, senile dementia and breast cancer. Without being overly technical, it does not talk down to its readers. Earlier this year, I undertook to get it published and it is now available on Kindle for $5 per copy. I do recommend it.

Further to the subject of prostate cancer, there are a number of plant molecules that have an effect on it and BPH. All cancers have tNOX molecules on their external membranes. tNOX is the tumour variant of cNOX, or normal constituent NOX. No plant molecules bind to cNOX but a number bind to tNOX. tNOX has two binding sites. If both are bound to simultaneously, the effect is synergistic. For example, the combination of sulforaphane with capsaicin has twenty times the effect of sulforaphane alone. Another example of synergism is curcumin from turmeric with piperine from black pepper.

David Archibald

December 2012

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Zeke
December 14, 2012 10:33 am

Pompous Git says: You’ve got to be joking! What laws? And if that “study” is the best you can come up with, I truly pity you. It’s a “study” worthy of Stephan Lewandowsky.
The study is meant to have a little slightly retaliatory fun because I get tired of having studies thrown at me all of the time about what I should do with my life down to the last little watt and rice grain and air molecule.
http://spp.sagepub.com/content/early/2012/05/14/1948550612447114.abstract
Inre “What laws?” On the wheat threads, I have been posting about the agreements that China has been seeking with the EU and the USDA – but this was on another thread. Why don’t you have a look at these agreements? The laws involve sustainable agricultural policies which would set back farming to Medieval practices.
http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/EU_China_agree_on_ag_sustainability_999.html
Are you saying that you are not aware of any legislative pushes, anywhere, to begin to reverse modern agronomy and outlaw pest control and fertilizers? These kinds of movements involve such catch phrases as “local-only” and are hostile to big growers and pest control. It’s Green Party nonsense that promises to end the wasteful purchase of food from other countries and bring jobs back home. It is prevalent, and it will become more of a constant drumbeat in the next few years.
So in answer to your question “What laws?” I am referring to Agricultural sustainability agreements and policies by the EU and the USDA with China.

December 14, 2012 12:06 pm

I was diagnosed with stage 4 prostate cancer about 11 months ago. At that point my PSA reading was 56. Cancer had metastasized into my ribs and pelvis. Oncologists put me on their standard protocol of Luperon and Zometa. It was recommended to me that I supplement with AveMar Ultra, taken with Pomegranate or Cranberry juice. AveMar Ultra is fermented wheat germ. After measuring 56, my PSa dropped to 23, then 16 and has been in a range between 8 and 10 since then. I’m 74 now and feel well enough that I think I’ll die of something else before the cancer gets me. I would love to hear from others who have been supplementing with AveMar Ultra.

Leg
December 14, 2012 1:26 pm

Is the diagnostic rate the same or is one country better or more efficient at diagnosis?” South Vietnam likely has no screening, Japan only a modest program, and the US an intensive program. Therefore your diagnostic (numerator) rate can change dramatically because of this. So my question is – have the different diagnostic rates been accounted for? Dietary associations with cancer must be viewed with a lot of caution.
I personally think the food and dietary supplement industries have much more “charlatan science” than even the climate science industry and a strong skepticism is vital when examining claims of “better” health. Additionally I’m a “super taster” (In the aprox 20% of population who are this), and won’t touch the foods that Dave suggests lower the cancer rate, e.g. chilis. So thanks for the advice, but no thanks.

December 14, 2012 6:23 pm

Zeke said December 14, 2012 at 10:33 am

The study is meant to have a little slightly retaliatory fun because I get tired of having studies thrown at me all of the time about what I should do with my life down to the last little watt and rice grain and air molecule.

If what you say is tongue-in-cheek, perhaps you should say so. Sorry for not immediately seizing on that you were making fun. As it happens, I too tire of people telling this libertarian what to do (and think).
However, you have failed to provide support for your thesis regarding being forced by law to purchase and consume organic produce at twice the price you are prepared to pay. The link you provide is to agreements regarding low-input sustainable agriculture (LISA) and this is not organic agriculture as defined by law. LISA advocates use artificial fertilisers, synthetic pesticides and herbicides eschewed by organic practitioners. However, I’m happy to play your little game.
Back in 1980 if memory serves, we had an agricultural conference in Adelaide under the auspices of IFOAM. It was well attended by farmers of every ilk and we had many interesting farm walks on LISA and organic farms. Attendees from overseas remarked on how well we all got along as similar events in Europe and North America had the various camps all at loggerheads with no serious communication occurring.
Sam Jericho is a LISA farmer on the Eyre Peninsula of South Australia where he grows wheat using no-till. The wheat is drilled into sod killed with herbicide, rather than killing the sod by mechanical ploughing hence it’s often called chemical ploughing. As well, Sam’s father had planted out many shelter belts of trees, commencing this in the 1920s.
The ABC radio reporter who was on the walk with us asked Sam if he would have made more money farming the way his neighbours had. Sam said it was likely he would have, “…but I’d only have spent it!” It’s of note that, in this particular season, the area was deeply drought affected and Sam’s neighbours didn’t have a crop worth harvesting, sending some into bankruptcy. Sam had a 30 bag/acre crop to harvest. Yes, Sam’s neighbours’ crops were heavier than his in a good year, but Sam had a crop to sell when prices were at their highest due to drought when they had nothing to sell.
You see Zeke, maximum yield of crop per acre is not the farmer’s goal. His (or her) goal is to have more money in the bank at the end of the year than was there at the beginning. The goal of the agro-chemical industry is to maximise its profits at the expense of the farmer. As for LISA and organic farmers having a crop to sell in difficult years rather than no crop at all, I fail utterly to understand how this “doubles prices”. I also note that almost every organic farmer I have talked with has been proud of their low level of debt. Almost every conventional farmer I have with has been heavily in debt and suffered badly during the world financial crises during the last 30 years.

December 14, 2012 6:39 pm

krischel said December 14, 2012 at 6:24 am

Fun fact (albeit n=2) – reducing my carbohydrate intake eliminated my lactose intolerance. Even worked for my wife. I had never been able to eat cheese or dairy without severe intestinal distress, and that just plan *vanished*. Never would’ve thought it possible, but it would be fascinating to see that sort of “off-label” treatment studied.

Interesting… I’ll have another go at persuading my lactose-intolerant, diabetic sister to give low carbs a try. I gave up sugary things nearly forty years ago and reduced other carbs recently with immediate and obvious benefits. My brother, sister and mother were all type 2 diabetics at 30 years. I’ve passed 60 and still haven’t become diabetic. Close, but no guernsey as we say in these parts.
For those having trouble understanding the carbs issue, if I want to fatten a cow, I feed it cereal grain. Pigs, chickens, geese also fatten nicely on cereal grain. If I wanted an “obesity epidemic” I’d be telling everyone to eat less fat and protein and up their carbs…
Since I don’t, I recommend my friends read Jennifer McLagan’s Fat. Great recipes for annoying Marxist/Lentillists and the Salt Police 🙂

Steve Keohane
December 14, 2012 8:38 pm

Don says:December 13, 2012 at 12:04 am
[…]The likely explanation is of course that the sodas were “stabilized” by sorbates to prevent fermentation (“spoilage”). I couldn’t help wondering if sorbated commercial soft drinks might have the same effect in vivo, knocking our microbiotic friends– and thus our health– for a serious loop. Something to think about.

Brings to mind ruminations regarding the effect of chlorine in the drinking water. Obviously the overall result is beneficial to health with regard to harmful bacteria and viruses. But what is the effect on the gut?

December 14, 2012 9:02 pm

As Zeke so ably illustrates with his comments and links, Western fads and paranoia about our daily diet can have repercussions well beyond our good intentions. It has been conservatively estimated that eliminating modern farm practices like using chemicals and fertilizers would cut world food production by 1/3 and would increase food prices by 50%. Billions of people around the world are struggling to maintain food security now. Imagine the predicament the world would face with food price inflation of that magnitude.

December 14, 2012 10:07 pm

Hey just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your post seem to be running off the
screen in Chrome. I’m not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with internet browser compatibility but I figured I’d post to let you know.
The layout look great though! Hope you get the problem solved soon.
Cheers

Spector
December 14, 2012 10:55 pm

The other day I saw a news announcement about a new technique where an HIV virus was genetically modified to target its attack on cancer cells.
HOUSECALL FOR HEALTH: USING HIV TO TREAT CANCER
There may be a new treatment for leukemia in the form of a virus. Genetically-modified HIV has helped cure a 7-year-old of the disease.
http://radio.foxnews.com/2012/12/12/housecall-for-health-using-hiv-to-treat-cancer/#.UMwc_6zNl8E

December 14, 2012 11:07 pm

Rick said December 14, 2012 at 9:02 pm

It has been conservatively estimated that eliminating modern farm practices like using chemicals and fertilizers would cut world food production by 1/3 and would increase food prices by 50%. Billions of people around the world are struggling to maintain food security now. Imagine the predicament the world would face with food price inflation of that magnitude.

Apart from the ecoloonies, agrochemical companies, and people like you and Zeke nobody is contemplating “eliminating modern farm practices like using chemicals and fertilizers”. All farmers, organic, LISA, as well as conventional use fertilisers, pesticides, tractors… Here’s a few of the industrial chemicals used by organic farmers:
Copper sulphate, basic slag (byproduct of iron smelting), sodium silicate, sodium bicarbonate, potassium permanganate, potassium stearate, iron chelate… Oh dear, not so “chemical-free” is it?
The single most important crop-limiting factor is water. If you are worried about food security, worry about that! As it happens, there is, as Willis has pointed out elsewhere on this site, no looming world food shortage. The world’s food problems are those of distribution (the poor got no money to buy it) and overproduction that keeps prices low so farmers make sweet fanny adams in the way of income without subsidies from the government. That is, you pay less for your food at the shop, but more in taxes to the government. And guess what the government record is like in this regard. This attempt at scary shit is worthy of.. oh, an Al Gore, a Micky the Mannikin?
And just for the record, I have inspected the results of many agricultural trials, including in some cases withheld data. The agrochemical companies only allow the publication of the results they want promulgated. It’s widely known in farming circles that herbicides reduce cereal yields/acre. As I wrote earlier, it’s not about yields/acre, it’s about the excess of income above expenditure. And even that might not be obvious from a short-term trial.
Back in the mid 80s I came across two 30 year long cereal trials in Europe. The control plots received no fertiliser nor were crop residues handled organically. The fertilised plots were fed the recommended rate of artificial NPK. Yes, there was a yield increase (15% IIRC), but that was insufficient to pay for the fertiliser, never mind the cost of applying the fertiliser!
I note with somewhat grim amusement that some years ago the vegetable growers on the North West Coast of Tasmania were persuaded to use high-analysis fertilisers. Naturally they cost a lot more per unit of N, P & K than the ordinary fertilisers they were used to, but they were assured that because they would spend less time applying the much smaller volume, they would be ahead financially. Unfortunately, the crop responses to the new fertiliser was to say the least, disappointing. Turned out that most of the crop response to the old superphosphate was down to its sulphur content. There being no sulphur in the high-analysis fertiliser, yields went down. There’s nothing quite like a good plummet, I always say.
I live among farmers, on a farm, so I have a different perspective than city-slickers who, by and large, are completely clueless when it comes to farming Frankly, you and Zeke are no better than the woman who phoned me to ask what organic sprays to use for organic apple production. When I explained that it was much more than sprays, it was an integrated approach requiring attention to fertilisers, varieties and past land use, she interrupted me to say she wanted to tell her neighbour what to use so she wouldn’t have to put up with his nasty chemicals. I asked who her neighbour was and when she told me I fell about with laughter. Her neighbour was an organic orchardist! So it goes…

December 14, 2012 11:36 pm

wordpress.com said December 14, 2012 at 10:07 pm

Hey just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your post seem to be running off the
screen in Chrome. I’m not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with internet browser compatibility but I figured I’d post to let you know.
The layout look great though! Hope you get the problem solved soon.
Cheers

I suspect that the problem is at your end. No problem here and I’m using Chrome.

December 15, 2012 12:23 am

Re: WordPress and Chrome: I’m using Chrome and this site has always looked fine to me!
Re: Pompous Git and Lentillists: **LOVE** it! :>
Re: Chlorine in our water: Did you know that suburban neighborhoods that allow swimming pools expose their children to 1,417% more deadly chlorine gas (Outlawed in war by the Geneva conventions!) than suburban neighborhoods that ban swimming pools? Do you love your children? Join Ban The Pools today!
;>
MJM
P.S. Yes, I made up the 1,417% number… but it could well be true! Play it safe: live with hippies who don’t take showers!

December 15, 2012 7:46 am

“It’s widely known in farming circles that herbicides reduce cereal yields/acre.”
Could you please link to the sources that would support that statement. How do herbicide companies remain in business when the use of their products reduces yield?

December 15, 2012 10:34 am

Rick said December 15, 2012 at 7:46 am

“It’s widely known in farming circles that herbicides reduce cereal yields/acre.”
Could you please link to the sources that would support that statement. How do herbicide companies remain in business when the use of their products reduces yield?

Since Googling “herbicide grain yield” seems beyond your Googling ability:
http://www.daff.qld.gov.au/documents/PlantIndustries_FieldCropsAndPasture/Sensitivity-barley-wheat-cultivars-herbicides.pdf
As with most research, the questions that arise are interesting. How did they obtain weed-free ground for the control plots? Methyl bromide? What is the history of herbicide use in these plots? Glyphosate (Roundup), for example, accumulates in the soil leading to long-term disease problems in wheat crops.(smut, rust, bunt etc.) Fungal diseases are more prevalent in some years than others; some are controllable, but at the expense of spraying fungicide; some are controllable by changing to another variety, but different varieties differ in yield.
Herbicide companies remain in business because, unlike you, they know that the farmer is not at all interested in maximising yield. Here’s a link to the world record tomato grower Charles Wilber:
http://home.comcast.net/~pobrien48/Tomatoes_World_Record.htm
Now, ask yourself: “if maximising yield is what it’s all about, why don’t all tomato growers use the same technique as Mr Wilber? Why do they tolerate yields of less than 5% of Mr Wilber’s crop?” See my previous comments for the answers.

December 15, 2012 10:46 am

michaeljmcfadden said December 15, 2012 at 12:23 am

Re: Chlorine in our water: Did you know that suburban neighborhoods that allow swimming pools expose their children to 1,417% more deadly chlorine gas (Outlawed in war by the Geneva conventions!) than suburban neighborhoods that ban swimming pools? Do you love your children? Join Ban The Pools today!
;>
MJM
P.S. Yes, I made up the 1,417% number… but it could well be true! Play it safe: live with hippies who don’t take showers!

Well, this hippy doesn’t take showers, but he does enjoy a long, hot soak in his bathtub. You will be happy to note that the water The Git harvests remains completely chlorine (and fluoride) free.

Zeke
December 15, 2012 11:01 am

Pompous Git says:
“The fertilised plots were fed the recommended rate of artificial NPK. Yes, there was a yield increase (15% IIRC), but that was insufficient to pay for the fertiliser, never mind the cost of applying the fertiliser!”
Corn yields in bushels per acre since WWII have increased by a factor of 5. Countries that were unable to grow enough wheat to support themselves have become net exporters of wheat after the Green Revolution. This includes the use of dwarf varieties, the use of chemical fertilizers, and the use of pesticides. Wheat rust is a nasty disgusting beast – including 100’s of varieties – that has been vanquished largely due to the scientific genious and vison of Drs Stakman and Borlaug, and to allow it to come back because of this misplaced faith in the glories of organic farming would be a devastation to the grains on which so many lives depend. I have no problem with other people sticking to their own diets. I never, ever buy organic and the food I prefer often comes from several continents. We are each paying an additional 1,000 bucks a year in higher gas prices, and food prices are climbing, while taxes are increasing and power bills are also getting higher. Respect my decision not to eat organic, as I respect others’ decisions to go on a Paleo or a raw food diet or an organic regimen. Reading this thread is sufficient to illustrate that no one agrees, and the science is not settled, on the best diet or the best way to treat any given disease. Preserving individual liberty is the best default in this case.
I am speaking because the Sustainable Agriculture push is beginning right now, and is being carried out, like the co2 regulation perpetrated on us by the EPA, by unelected, unaccountable offices and officials in the EU and in the US.

December 15, 2012 11:18 am

These many long years ago, The Git wrote a fortnightly column on organic production for a rural newspaper. The publicity officer of the Agricultural and Veterinary Chemicals Association also used to write an occasional article basically coming out with the same sort of tosh as Rick and Zeke to which I would respond. When I was asked to participate on the Aerial Spraying Implementation Group that was to advise government on its proposed legislation I met the AVCA guy for the first time. Over coffee in the first break, he informed me of some particularly interesting research that reinforced my arguments and directly contradicted his own. Surprised, I asked him why he wrote what he did. “Oh, that’s just what I’m paid to write,” he told me. You’ve gotta laugh 🙂
It was during those meetings that I parted company with the ecoloons and discovered through the ag scientists that there was a lot of unpublished research supporting the claims of organic farmers. The suppression of opposing views in the literature by Micky the Mannikin is nothing new!
Farmers, being pragmatists, are free to adopt organic techniques that suited their farming practices. The apple and pear growers of Tasmania set themselves a goal of reducing pesticide inputs by 95% in ten years. They achieved this in five. I applauded this (and still do); the ecoloons moaned because it wasn’t a 100% reduction. But then they don’t have to make a living from farming.

December 15, 2012 12:58 pm

Zeke said December 15, 2012 at 11:01 am

Corn yields in bushels per acre since WWII have increased by a factor of 5. Countries that were unable to grow enough wheat to support themselves have become net exporters of wheat after the Green Revolution. This includes the use of dwarf varieties, the use of chemical fertilizers, and the use of pesticides. Wheat rust is a nasty disgusting beast – including 100′s of varieties – that has been vanquished largely due to the scientific genious and vison of Drs Stakman and Borlaug, and to allow it to come back because of this misplaced faith in the glories of organic farming would be a devastation to the grains on which so many lives depend. I have no problem with other people sticking to their own diets. I never, ever buy organic and the food I prefer often comes from several continents. We are each paying an additional 1,000 bucks a year in higher gas prices, and food prices are climbing, while taxes are increasing and power bills are also getting higher. Respect my decision not to eat organic, as I respect others’ decisions to go on a Paleo or a raw food diet or an organic regimen. Reading this thread is sufficient to illustrate that no one agrees, and the science is not settled, on the best diet or the best way to treat any given disease. Preserving individual liberty is the best default in this case.
I am speaking because the Sustainable Agriculture push is beginning right now, and is being carried out, like the co2 regulation perpetrated on us by the EPA, by unelected, unaccountable offices and officials in the EU and in the US.

What makes you think that organic grain farmers don’t use modern varieties wheat? Are you aware that an estimated 15% of that increase has come from the increase in atmospheric CO2?How do you avoid eating organically grown food? Do you avoid eating in restaurants?
http://www.rickstein.com/Eggs.html
Currently I’m quaffing some very excellent 2008 Viking Grand Shiraz. It comes from a vineyard that is biodynamic (even more organic than organic according to its practitioners). The grapes in Viking used to be sold to Penfolds where they were included in the justifiably famous Grange Hermitage. I note that the same vintage Grange is selling for nearly $4,000 a case overseas. I paid $240/case for the Viking. Is the Grange a superior wine? Yes, but not by very much. When you buy your Grange (or equivalent), how do you know that it doesn’t contain any organically grown grapes? Is $4,000 really only a little over $240? Hint: the rapidity of conversion to organic by Australian grape growers has amazed me, though since I know why they are converting, it shouldn’t: higher yields and an increase in quality.
In my fridge is a piece of Italian ham (prosciutto) from Italy, a country in a different continent than Australia. As it happens, this too is organic, though it’s not labelled organic. How do you avoid this problem of food that’s organic, but not labelled as such? Are you psychic? Or do you just avoid high quality food? Note that just because the food you buy is from a different continent doesn’t mean it’s necessarily conventionally grown. I’m not alone in growing organically, but not bothering with organic certification required if you want to label your produce as organic.
Yes, food prices are rising, though I note not as fast as energy prices and they impact all farmers! This has absolutely nothing to do with the move towards more sustainable agriculture that began several decades ago. LISA was and is about reducing costs and improving the farmer’s bottom line. And, once more, LISA does not equate to organic. Examples:
Broccoli growers in the Lockyer Vally, Queensland were experiencing increased resistance to synthetic pesticides by aphids. The solution adopted was to alternate rows of broccoli with rows of rape. The rape wasn’t harvested; it was grown because it was particularly attractive for predators that consumed the aphids. While yield/hectare went down, the cost per kilo to produce the broccoli fell even more, so the farmer’s bottom line improved.
My neighbours are apple growers and during a Christmas party conversation many years ago, one asked me what I’d use to control Light Brown Apple Moth. I told him that I would use Dipel (Monsanto’s brand of Bacillus Thuringiensis var. Berliner). I also told him that it would cost a lot more than malathion, but it was available in bulk from the local rural supplies store. It wasn’t until a couple of years later that I got around to asking my neighbour if he’d tried using Dipel. His face broke into a large grin as he told me that far from being more expensive, because he only needed to apply it far less often than malathion, it worked out far cheaper in use. He also liked that he didn’t have to wear his “space-suit” while applying it.
While you might wish to dictate to farmers what they should, or shouldn’t use, I have only ever told my neighbours what I thought when they requested it. As one of them told me years ago, about a decade after I bought the farm, “We just watched what you were doing and ended up copying you.” His brother came to me several years later and showed me the results of a petiole analysis from one of their orchards. He asked me what fertiliser I’d apply based on the result. I said: “Nothing.” He replied: “That’s what I was going to do.” The yield from that orchard was a record crop. The following year was almost a complete repeat: the second biggest harvest ever. The goal in orcharding is producing fruit, not wood and leaves at the expense of fruit, which is what applying fertiliser, organic or artificial, would have achieved.

December 15, 2012 2:43 pm

Re: link provided by The Pompous Git http://www.daff.qld.gov.au/documents/PlantIndustries_FieldCropsAndPasture/Sensitivity-barley-wheat-cultivars-herbicides.pdf
Southern Queensland Australia must be a fertile farming area or they wouldn’t be testing and selling herbicides.
21 barley varieties and 19 different chemical or chemical combinations were tested in plots.
46 wheat varieties and 36 different chemical or chemical combinations were tested.
3 different applications were made in an attempt to produce a negative(yield loss) result.
1)Double recommended rate of chemical coded yellow- no farmer would deliberately spend twice the required amount for herbicide so this one should be disregarded.
2)Recommended rate coded orange but only 1 plot out of sometimes as many as 8 test plots produced a negative result.
3)Recommended rate coded red where more than 1 plot produced a negative result(yield loss).
Out of the hundreds of test plots a handful of plots produced a red flag; hardly the smoking gun TPG has trumpeted. The herbicide companies support work of this nature because they want to know what does and what does not work in a given area.
If these test plot results are the smoking gun against herbicides for this area in Australia why do farmers continue to purchase these products in this area?
In our neck of the woods, organic farming is not exactly mainstream and I’m guessing that Southern Queensland Australia is no different.

December 15, 2012 5:26 pm

Rick said December 15, 2012 at 2:43 pm

Southern Queensland Australia must be a fertile farming area or they wouldn’t be testing and selling herbicides.

If these test plot results are the smoking gun against herbicides for this area in Australia why do farmers continue to purchase these products in this area?
In our neck of the woods, organic farming is not exactly mainstream and I’m guessing that Southern Queensland Australia is no different.

Perhaps you should have read what I wrote above more closely. “As with most research, the questions that arise are interesting. How did they obtain weed-free ground for the control plots? Methyl bromide?” Some method of preplant weed suppression would appear to have been used. If it was methyl bromide, or steam sterilisation, then that would have suppressed yield. In that case, what was being compared was one yield-suppressor versus a different weed-suppressor.
What I was thinking of when I passed the original remark was the conversation that occurred between conventional and organic wheat/sheep farmers at the IFOAM conference in Adelaide in 1980. The conventional growers asked the organic growers “what do you do about smut, rust, yellow-spot?” etc. The organic growers all reported no problems. Note well that this does not mean these diseases were necessarily entirely absent; just that controlling them was economically unviable because they were occurring at such a low level.
When farmers conduct trials on their own properties it’s in the context of their individual whole farm operation. The farmer isn’t just applying herbicide to a crop, they are also applying fertilisers, often including foliar nutrients, organic and inorganic as well as pesticides. Unsurprisingly, they all interact and often in unpredictable ways. At Grove, the agronomists identified thirteen variables affecting the results from apple thinning sprays. I don’t know of a single orchardist who ever even attempted to evaluate their use of thinning sprays on the basis of those thirteen independent variables.
I became aware of the downside of soil sterilisation when there was a trial of specific transplant controls here in the Huon Valley. When you transplant a young tree into existing orchard it will not thrive. The “traditional” method was to sterilise the soil with methyl bromide. The study looked at that versus a commercial compost called OR90 and a commercial pelletised poultry manure product called Dynamic Lifter. I told the agronomist the orange ruffy (a fish) had shown herbicidal properties when used on pasture at a friend’s farm. Indeed, it exhibited similar properties after having been composted with eucalyptus bark, that contains a natural herbicide, Anywho, the first year the methyl bromide and poultry manured trees were neck and neck, both well ahead of the control and OR90. By the third year, the poultry manured trees were way ahead. SE Queensland agronomists replicated the trial a year, or so later.
Yes, you can kill everything in the soil: earthworms, actinomycetes, mycorrhizae, etc, but there’s a cost to this as there is to everything.

Zeke
December 15, 2012 6:35 pm

“While you might wish to dictate to farmers what they should, or shouldn’t use…”
I have communicated precisely the opposite and have repeatedly emphasized individual decisions in matters of diet and medicine on this thread, which is on topic because the study here is about a potential link between diet and cancer.
I am defending because I know it would be disastrous for the USDA to begin to systematically take away food choices and reverse agricultural advancements, and drive up prices by implementing Agenda 21/Sustainable Ag/Rio +20.
I wish more students would learn about Lysenko, Stalin, Mao, and the disastrous effects of government using science to destroy the food supply.
It always comes with the promise of Eden. Maybe a computer model is coming.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Great_Leap_forward_poster.jpg

December 15, 2012 10:07 pm

In terms of diet and cancer, remember that “there is no safe level” for any Class A Carcinogen, including such things as sunshine and ethyl alcohol. The latter element is present in quite measurable quantities in orange juice. If you give your child a nice glass of OJ every morning, by the end of the year you’ll have given then the rough equivalent of a pint of Guinness Stout.
So not only are you getting your little children drunk, you’re giving them cancer.
Of course my REAL point is that worrying about such things is simply neurotic.
– MJM

December 16, 2012 3:23 am

TPG says: “How did they obtain weed-free ground for the control plots? Methyl bromide?”
Methyl bromide, first used in the early 1930’s, was placed under restriction after the Montreal Protocol because its use is believed to cause depletion of the ozone layer. I don’t know about Australia but it was effectively banned in Canada in 2005.
Your link shows the Queensland plot trials were run from 1999 to 2008 and any trials I have seen try to use multiple locations each year and over the course of years. Concern about the chemical that was used prior to planting the plots seems to me to be a red herring.

December 16, 2012 12:13 pm

Zeke said December 15, 2012 at 6:35 pm

“While you might wish to dictate to farmers what they should, or shouldn’t use…”
I have communicated precisely the opposite and have repeatedly emphasized individual decisions in matters of diet and medicine on this thread, which is on topic because the study here is about a potential link between diet and cancer.
I am defending because I know it would be disastrous for the USDA to begin to systematically take away food choices and reverse agricultural advancements, and drive up prices by implementing Agenda 21/Sustainable Ag/Rio +20.
I wish more students would learn about Lysenko, Stalin, Mao, and the disastrous effects of government using science to destroy the food supply.

Discussed this with some friends. Their take was that US and European farmers are on the government teat and so likely will reap the consequences; he who pays the piper calls the tune. Australian farmers are not subsidised by government.
Your original claim was that organic and LISA would lead to a dramatic decline in food production. I demurred and pointed to the examples of the world record tomato grower and Sam Jericho having a worthwhile harvest when his neighbours didn’t. You have provided no counterexamples. I do agree that implementing ecoloony policies would be a disaster. The fact that they promote organic/LISA doesn’t mean they understand what organic/LISA actually entail and you conflated the two concepts yourself. I can remember one ecoloony who wrote to me that they favoured biodynamic agriculture because “it’s animal-free”. BD is centred on the use of preparation 500 manufactured by filling cow horns with cow manure and burying them over the winter!
On your latter point I agree. But be aware that it was the overzealous promotion of synthetic pesticides, fertilisers and herbicides led to a backlash among farmers and agronomists that peaked here several decades ago here. Growers didn’t take up the then new methods of LISA/organic/IPM because of government mandates; they did so because they gave improved profitability and other benefits. The researchers at Grove here in the Huon Valley told me in the late 80s they had ceased chemical research back in the 60s in favour of research into biological controls for pests such as the introduction of predator mites and methods of avoiding killing pollinators by selecting appropriate insecticides and alternate row spraying.
I became involved when James Wong developed a new spray regime that substituted agricultural lime for most of the fungicidal sprays then used in the apple orchards. The optimum result was the traditional copper, followed by one (sometimes two) conventional fungicide applications and after that several applications of lime solution. The organic producers merely omitted the conventional fungicide. Or, as in my case, used sodium silicate. Incidentally, the lime spray also eliminated codlin moth as the newly hatched grubs, like the fungal spores, couldn’t tolerate the high pH on the apple surface. Despite your assertion that the organic producers should have been harvesting only half what the conventional orchardists were, I never saw any evidence of a significant difference in yields. As I pointed out early in this thread, the major crop-limiting factor is water.
At that time I was asked to deliver papers to conferences held by the Australian Institute of Agricultural Scientists and Australasian Institute of Plant Physiologists among others. They were well-received The only hostility I experienced came from the ecoloons who claimed that I was “rubbing shoulders with the enemy”. A couple of years ago I was invited to undertake a doctorate in agriculture despite my lacking a relevant degree. I demurred because I find my more recent research into the history and philosophy of science more fascinating.
The new improvements to orchard practise led to pack out rates of between 90 and 95% compared to 60% of the previous decade. Unfortunately, world markets have changed since then and this is the first year that Tasmania (The Apple Isle) hasn’t exported any apples overseas. The largest orchardist went into receivership a couple of years ago and many have had to leave the industry. The organic growers who rely on local markets continue to increase their market share and remain profitable. A similar story applies on the North West Coast where the major vegetable processor relocated to New Zealand. The rubbing of hands among the NZ growers didn’t last long as the vegetables being processed are imported from China. So it goes…

December 16, 2012 12:41 pm

Rick said December 16, 2012 at 3:23 am

TPG says: “How did they obtain weed-free ground for the control plots? Methyl bromide?”
Methyl bromide, first used in the early 1930′s, was placed under restriction after the Montreal Protocol because its use is believed to cause depletion of the ozone layer. I don’t know about Australia but it was effectively banned in Canada in 2005.
Your link shows the Queensland plot trials were run from 1999 to 2008 and any trials I have seen try to use multiple locations each year and over the course of years. Concern about the chemical that was used prior to planting the plots seems to me to be a red herring.

Not a red herring at all. Killing the soil biota would reduce nutrient uptake in the crop regardless whether methyl bromide or steam sterilisation was used. A more useful comparison would be between actual farm practise: post-emergent herbicide, drilled into pasture knocked down with a broad spectrum herbicide, drilled into a pasture of summer-dormant sub-clover and conventional (that is drilled into mechanically cleaned soil followed by harrowing to destroy weeds). All accompanied by identifiable costs.
From the Tasmanian Consolidated Regulations:

AGRICULTURAL AND VETERINARY CHEMICALS (CONTROL OF USE) (METHYL BROMIDE) ORDER 2011 – REG 4
4. Handling and use of methyl bromide
A methyl bromide fumigant must not be handled or used in a quantity exceeding 50kg except as authorised by a permit granted and in force under the Act.
Displayed and numbered in accordance with the Rules Publication Act 1953.
Notified in the Gazette on 14 September 2011.
This order is administered in the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment.