Have we hit solar max?
NOAA’s SWPC recently updated their solar metrics graphs, and it seems to me like we may have topped out for solar cycle 24. There doesn’t seem to be any evidence of resurgence in any of the three metrics. Granted one month does not a cycle make, but it has been over a year now since the peak of about 95 SSN in October 2011, and there has been nothing similar since. Unlike the big swings of last solar max around 2000-2001, there’s very little variance in the signals of the present, demonstrating that the volatility expected during solar max just isn’t there.
It has been 7 years since the regime shift was observed in the Solar Geomagnetic Index (Ap) in October 2005, and the sun seems to be in a generally quiet magnetic period since then with no hint of the volatility of the past cycle.
UPDATE: Another indicator that we are at solar max is that the polar magnetic fields are about to flip, as tracked in this graphic from Dr. Leif Svalgaard. Click image to enlarge:
![WSO-Polar-Fields-since-2003[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/wso-polar-fields-since-20031.png?quality=75)
The wisdom of Yogi Berra (1925 — )
“Every situation is different, and this one is no exception.”
“Prediction is hard. Especially the future …”
“You can observe a lot by just watching.”
Hope the above gems of thought help to undestand the situation.
MonktonofOz says:
December 10, 2012 at 12:26 pm
… “Just what was it the Mayans were predicting would happen on that date?”
Not much!
Autos have odometers that report distance traveled. In the USA the mile is the metric. HaHa. Anyway, if the right-most number is for tenths then there will be a series from 0, 1, … 9 as you travel. After 9 the cycle repeats. Most odometers in the USA have a maximum of 99,999.9, then the whole set of numbers “turns over” and the series begins again.
Same with the Mayans. Baktun!
http://www.ancient-world-mysteries.com/long-count.html
I’ve been cheer leading for Grand Solar Minimum since 2009 when I discovered the low solar activity and brutally cold planetary conditions that followed. It’s the Sun Stupid. I still am cheer leading for more low solar activity and more brutally cold planetary conditions. I don’t enjoy the effects of global cooling, the crop failures, and high frozen dead body counts, but I feel it is necessary to teach the man-made global warming/climate change zealots a lesson they will never forget. It is my recommendation the Sun stay in a low output phase till the lesson is learned.
Dr Browns post a few days back is worth rereading. We do not have sufficient data to draw a rational conclusion, warm ? cool? so don’t panic.
Now remember to look to the bright side, adaptation is the human survival skill.
And on the sarcastic side, vegetarians are the best eating, followed by fitness freaks.
The next 2 to 5 years will be interesting.
Either the AGW crowd is right, and the warming will resume… very doubtful !!
—
or temps will stay level, putting more pressure on their religion.
(I mean real temperatures, just watch out for more adjustment shenanigans !!),
—
or there will be an undeniable drop in temps, that will blow the AGW religion apart, making the bletheren even more desperate than they are already getting.
It appears we are going to have an opportunity to witness a Heinrich event. Large change to the geomagnetic field, very large volcanic eruptions, and significant cooling. The Heinrich events are strong Dansgarrd-Oeschger or Bond events. (Bond traced 30 events in geo record and found the correlation of cosmogenic isotope changes with the events. The Bond events have a periodicity of 1500 years, the Heinrich events occur with a pseudo periodicity of 4000 years to 8000 years.
The Younger Dryas was a Heinrich event, 12,800 years BP and as well as the 8200 year BP cooling event.
The tilt of the earth, eccentricity of the earth’s orbit and the timing of perihelion (whether the northern or southern hemisphere is closest to the sun during the hemisphere summer) amplifies or inhibits the effect. The orbital configuration currently is in a strong amplification for a geomagnetic excursion.
There is in the geomagnetic record evidence of four concurrent Auckland erupting volcanoes that capture a geomagnetic excursion. The volcanoes in question are fed by unconnected magma pools so there needs to be an external forcing function to cause concurrent eruptions and to capture the very rare geomagnetic excursion. The current eruptions in New Zealand is evidence of the change.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X12003421
Dynamics of the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion from Black Sea sediments
Highlights
► Laschamp geomagnetic excursion occurred at 41 ka. ► It was characterised by a full reversal lasting about 440 yr. ► Reversed phase was associated with a significant recovery in field strength. ► Virtual geomagnetic pole movement was in the range of half a degree in latitude per year. ► Comparison with globally distributed Laschamp records indicates non-dipolar excursional field behaviour.
This ultimately allowed a high precision synchronisation of the two data records from the Black Sea and Greenland. The largest volcanic eruption on the Northern hemisphere in the past 100 000 years, namely the eruption of the super volcano 39400 years ago in the area of today’s Phlegraean Fields near Naples, Italy, is also documented within the studied sediments from the Black Sea. The ashes of this eruption, during which about 350 cubic kilometers of rock and lava were ejected, were distributed over the entire eastern Mediterranean and up to central Russia. These three extreme scenarios, a short and fast reversal of the Earth’s magnetic field, short-term climate variability of the last ice age and the volcanic eruption in Italy, have been investigated for the first time in a single geological archive and placed in precise chronological order
http://phys.org/news/2012-10-extremely-reversal-geomagnetic-field-climate.html#jCp
The actual polarity changes lasted only 250 years. In terms of geological time scales, that is very fast.” Most reversals, which the Earth has experienced periodically, are estimated to take between 1,000 and 10,000 years. (William: The limit of reversal in the standard model is roughly 2000 years to 3000 years for a core based change.)
During the reversal 41,000 years ago the field was very weak with only 5 percent of today’s field strength, researchers said, and as a consequence Earth nearly completely lost its protection shield against hard cosmic rays, leading to a significantly increased radiation exposure.
http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2012/10/16/Flip-flop-of-Earths-magnetic-field-probed/UPI-20911350433864/#ixzz2Ei8RWegh
Lief
Two things. First, if SC-24 ends up at 66.9 (conditionally), is that enough of a difference from your prediction of ~72 as to make you rethink anything?
Second, TSI is not the be all and end all of the influence of the sun on our atmosphere and you seem to be not addressing this in your considerations. We know for a fact that the atmosphere at low orbital altitudes expands and contracts in concert with the solar cycle. We also know for a fact that at SC-23/24 minimum that the atmosphere contracted to its minimum measured density during the space age. The variation in temperature in the upper atmosphere is measured down as low as 65,000 feet, which also is near the bottom of the conductive portion of the atmosphere as measured by many observers.
We know that this expansion/contraction is largely driven by the UV flux from the sun and since the UV flux varies by a much larger percentage than TSI, and since UV is preferentially absorbed in the atmosphere vs mid and long wave visible light, does it not stand to reason that this coupling at these wavelengths can drive atmospheric temperatures far more than the far less energetic absorption features in the short to mid IR bands.
To me this seems to be a major hole in the energy balance equations for heating the atmosphere. A UV photon carries far greater energy than an IR photon and thus when measuring an increase/decrease in UV flux this should be weighted in any calculation regarding atmospheric temperature.
We as of yet don’t know the effect of an extended minimum or lack of sunspots on the density of the atmosphere at higher altitudes but we do know the latest minimum, which was a very weak minimum had a major impact on the upper atmosphere. Thus we must broaden our consideration beyond just looking at TSI as it probably does not provide the insight we need in order to examine the impact of a maunder type minimum on global climate.
J Martin says:
December 10, 2012 at 3:49 pm
HA makes an absurd extrapolation of TSI [and hence temperature]. See last slide of
Here’s a sort of TSI model that hasn’t been extrapolated through to 2100 unfortunately, perhaps because all models fail sooner or later.
The model you show fails going backwards. There is really no indication that TSI in 1901 was any lower than in 2009. All other solar parameters we know have 2009 be comparable to 1901.
denniswingo says:
December 10, 2012 at 8:03 pm
Two things. First, if SC-24 ends up at 66.9 (conditionally), is that enough of a difference from your prediction of ~72 as to make you rethink anything?
Our prediction was made without considering [or even knowing about] the Livingston & Penn effect. With the L&P effect we would expect the actual SSN to come out lower, so 66.9 does not seem to be at variance with our prediction. In fact, we can redo the prediction in terms of F10.7 which does not seem to be impacted to much of L&P. If we do, the predicted value is 125, which is close to what is observed today [average 2012: 121 sfu].
Second, TSI is not the be all and end all of the influence of the sun on our atmosphere and you seem to be not addressing this in your considerations.
Since solar activity now is comparable to what it was during cycle 14, I expect TSI and UV to be comparable too. For UV we have a direct test of that, namely the diurnal variation of the geomagnetic field which is caused by dynamo action on the conducting E-layer [the conductivity created by UV]. That variation back in SC14 is the same as it is today, so on that basis, I conclude that UV [and solar wind which was also the same] does not have any great influence on the difference in climate then and now.
There is plenty of geologic evidence for global cooling over the next several decades, but just how much remains to be seen. We have been on 25-30 year warm/cool cycles since at least 1480 AD and have seen a number of them since the Maunder (1790-1820 warm period, 1820-1880 cool then warm, 1880-1915 cool period, 1915-1945 warm period, 1945-1977 cool period, 1978-1998 warm period, and 1999-2012 no warming, slightly cooler. In 1999, the PDO changed abruptly from warm to cool and I predicted that the next several decades would be cooler, perhaps substantially cooler. Well, we’ve seen a little cooling, but not a lot. The past decade somewhat resembles the last transition from a warm period (1915-1945) to the 30 year cool period that followed (1945-1977). The latest transition of the PDO from cool to warm happened abruptly in one year (1977) but we seem to be waffling along only a little bit cooler. Because the 1978-1998 warm period was only 20 years instead of 25-30, we may have been in a transition period the past decade and just now heading into a cool period. The big factor now is what the sun is doing that might result in a sharply deepening cold period. Looking at the solar cycles since the Maunder, my money would be on something not quite so drastic, perhaps like the Dalton (1790-1820). Since the Maunder, each succeeding sun spot minima cycle has been accompanied by a period of global cooling. The joker now is the Solar Grand Minima we are heading for and what effect it will have on the PDO/AMO cycles. Time will tell—what we can say for sure is that the odds of having 6 degrees of global warming by 2100 are somewhere between nil and nada.
I guess the big question in all of this is how will the earth respond to a drop in solar radiance of 6 W/M^2. As the fusion reaction cools and contracts it will go through a phase of decreased output. It will be a decrease in both constant waves and a big increase in magnetic waves.
While the constant wave will be around a 2 W/M^2 its the magnetic one that creates the ripples in the earths atmosphere. The pressures which generally compress the polar atmosphere areas will allow expansion, settling, and cooling. As cooling progresses dryer air will cause fewer clouds at night and thus greater cooling.. During the day the up welling of clouds will rise fast and the convection will cool the day time ground temps..
Without the magnetic waves to pressure the earth atmosphere and cause pressure imbalances the number of storms and severity will be reduced. Its very similar to the electrons surrounding the core of a molecule. Depending on the bonds and the passing of other molecules and their internal bonds, certain effects can be seen and predicted.. Certain excitements or suppression can been determined. Those invisible waves of magnetism play a very big roll in earths complex system. That reduction in heat from the waves will be the other 2-4 W/M^2 through convection release and reduced cloud cover.
When one remembers that a 2 W/M^2 and its corresponding drop in magnetic waves triggered the LIA and Maunder events, All I can do is sit back and enjoy the earths systems making fools of CAGW folks… The Sun and its seen/unseen influences drive the earths systems.. So it makes sense that when Mr sun goes on vacation so does the earths systems.
denniswingo says:
December 10, 2012 at 8:03 pm
Second, TSI is not the be all and end all of the influence of the sun on our atmosphere and you seem to be not addressing this in your considerations
It seems that now matter how hard I try to take that into consideration [going back several years], people just won’t listen. Here are some links to my taking these things into consideration, e.g.:
http://www.leif.org/research/GC31B-0351-F2007.pdf
http://www.leif.org/research/Does%20The%20Sun%20Vary%20Enough.pdf
http://www.leif.org/research/The%20long-term%20variation%20of%20solar%20activity.pdf
my first paragraph should have read >: It will be a decrease in both constant waves and a big decrease in magnetic waves / solar wind.
Landscheidt was of the opinion that there was a hidden mechanism by which heat was coupled into the first few hundred feet of the oceans which buffered global temperatures through the minima of the 11 year sunspot cycle. While Svalgaard’s work on cosmic rays and cloud formation could provide a partial explanation another mechanism does exist which became apparent about the time of Landscheidt’s death which was around 2004. I do not know if this has been taken up by anyone yet but has to be worth looking into:
While it is certainly the case that electrical currents in the sun are magnetically coupled via the Sun’s and Earth’s magnetic fields into the Earth’s oceans with a skin depth of around 250 metres (i.e. 1/e of the currents are dissipated by that depth) the coronal (Spitzer) resistivity is badly matched to that of sea water. However, less than a decade ago it was discovered that the coronal resistivity associated with lateral solar flare currents was not the Spitzer constant it was thought to be and in fact is closely matched to that of sea water. Quantification apart we here have a secondary mechanism by which solar activity employs the heliosphere to warm up the planet and supply the missing heat that Landscheidt was looking for.
Critical comments, reasoned dismissal extremely welcome. It is just an idea that needs some numbers – and it’s not trivial.
eco-geek
Are you honestly committing to that post?
Thanks Steve–for saying, I would like a simple answer…..cycle 24 = cooler weather for the future? Yes or No?
I think the same way–for us non-scientists, dealing with maxima’s, Grand Minimum ‘s, camel backs, TSI, flipping of poles, etc
and this: Steve says:It’s amazing to me that we have all these experts that think they know how the universe was created and nobody knows if a simple solar cycle will cause heating, cooling or nothing.
You make me laugh and are syaing what I would if I weren’t so confused.
eco-geek says:
December 10, 2012 at 9:35 pm
While it is certainly the case that electrical currents in the sun are magnetically coupled via the Sun’s and Earth’s magnetic fields into the Earth’s oceans with a skin depth of around 250 metres
That is certainly not the case. The skin depth in the oceans [and in any medium] depends on the frequency. For a magnetic disturbance lasting a quarter on an hour the skin depth is 7,500 meter; the formula is SD = 250 m / SQRT(freq Hz). So the whole ocean is affected. The currents are, however, so weak that there is no measurable heating from those, so the mechanism won’t work.
SC 24 maximum is not reached yet, it will be in ~2013/14.
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/bfly.gif
William says:
December 10, 2012 at 7:56 pm
During the reversal 41,000 years ago the field was very weak with only 5 percent of today’s field strength, researchers said, and as a consequence Earth nearly completely lost its protection shield against hard cosmic rays, leading to a significantly increased radiation exposure
Yet here was no detectable climate change at that time…
Day By Day says:
December 10, 2012 at 10:15 pm
and this: Steve says:It’s amazing to me that we have all these experts that think they know how the universe was created and nobody knows if a simple solar cycle will cause heating, cooling or nothing.
Of course we know: a simple solar cycle causes a heating of 0.1 degree followed by a cooling of 0.1 degrees, thus no net effect.
Eco-geek commented on my Blog [which is not really active]
I guess I may have put this in the wrong place however I should have said the resistivity difference is six orders of magnitude i.e. 10^6. I also recall reading somewhere that induced currents are very rarely directly measured which suggests a very obvious experiment which has probably never been done.
Has been done: “Already in 1832, Faraday predicted a motionally induced electric field for the river Thames but failed to detect it, due to a lack of adequate instrumentation. Such fields were
then observed in 1851 by Wollaston in a telegraphic cable across the English Channel. Young demonstrated in 1920 the recording of electric fields in the oceans by ship-towed electrodes. Submarine cables and towed electrodes are still the principal methods of measuring ocean flow by electromagnetic methods” [Sanford, T.B., Motionally induced electric and magnetic fields in the sea, J. Geophys. Res., 76, 3476-3492, 1971]
mitigatedsceptic says:
December 10, 2012 at 11:15 am
OK – so, as many have suspected, a Little Ice Age is on the cards – where is Plan B?
———————————————————————————————————–
B. Buy an SUV;
C. Crank up the heating.
I wrote about this December’s sunspot number from NOAA, too:
http://informthepundits.wordpress.com/2012/12/05/the-fading-sunspot-cycle/
I don’t think Cycle 24 has necessarily topped out yet, but think my conclusions are equally important.
I made a comment that we need a Plan B to combat global cooling to supplement our plan A to combat AGW.
Willis and Chiefio upthread in effect said not to worry about the climate cooling as we would have plenty of time to take action.Sorry, I dont agree.
It has taken tweny to thirty years to put together a still evolving Plan A. It takes an awful long time for the Bureaucratic super tanker to turn round and for agriculture to adjust.
History shows us that one decade can be remarkably different from another. The late 1500’s and the period around 1660 all showed a rapod cooling as did the 1830’s. All I’m pointing out is that we need alternative plans and history demonstrates that IF things should deteriorate it can be a rapid process.
Personally I’m more worroed about Cyber attacks on our electrical infrastructure than I am about climatic changes but that isn’t the topic of this thread
tonyb
I seem to remember a post, some time ago, about this forthcoming cycle, as it was then, with a graph that looked remarkably similar to the one above. It was a forecast of the SSN to come.
The Great Frost (the coldest for 500 years) hit Europe in the winter of 1708-9 causing 600,000 deaths from starvation in France alone and a further 200,000 elsewhere in Europe.
It was so serious that the spring campaign in the War of the Spanish Succession was delayed until June because of the harsh winter! People lost their enthusiasm for killing each other and the was stopped altogether a couple of years later.
Mor Electric Heating (@morelectricheat) says:
December 10, 2012 at 11:56 am
Is there any voice anywhere that can be heard that can sound the alarm to all the world, LITTLE ICE AGE is coming? Shouldn’t the whole world stand in awe of descent into little ice age? Is Bastardi the loudest voice? What will we call the decades of Solar Slump and Global Cooling? Landscheidt Minimum, in the tradition of the Maunder and Dalton minima? If his paper is confirmed with eventual Maunder minimum character with deep minimum in 2022, when will it be time for the world to declare a new Grand Minimum?
It will probably be called the warming pause by 98% of scientists!