We’ve already posted on how China is moving right along now as the big kahuna of CO2 emissions, now it seems there’s some despair over the inability to miss the imagined 2°C target set by wishful thinkers.
From CSIRO: The widening gap between present emissions and the two-degree target
Carbon dioxide emission reductions required to limit global warming to 2°C are becoming a receding goal based on new figures reported today in the latest Global Carbon Project (GCP) calculations published today in the advanced online edition of Nature Climate Change.
“A shift to a 2°C pathway requires an immediate, large, and sustained global mitigation effort,” GCP executive-director and CSIRO co-author of the paper, Dr Pep Canadell said.
Global CO2 emissions have increased by 58 per cent since 1990, rising 3 per cent in 2011, and 2.6 per cent in 2012. The most recent figure is estimated from a 3.3 per cent growth in global gross domestic product and a 0.7 per cent improvement in the carbon intensity of the economy.
Dr Canadell said the latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track at the high end of a range of emission scenarios, expanding the gap between current trends and the course of mitigation needed to keep global warming below 2°C.
He said on-going international climate negotiations need to recognise and act upon the growing gap between the current pathway of global greenhouse emissions and the likely chance of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
The research, led by Dr Glen Peters from CICERO, Norway, compared recent carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion, cement production, and gas flaring with emission scenarios used to project climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
“We need a sustained global CO2 mitigation rate of at least 3 per cent if global emissions are to peak before 2020 and follow an emission pathway that can keep the temperature increase below 2˚C,” Dr Peters said.
“Mitigation requires energy transition led by the largest emitters of China, the US, the European Union and India”.
He said that remaining below a 2°C rise above pre-industrial levels will require a commitment to technological, social and political innovations and an increasing need to rely on net negative emissions in future.
The Global Carbon Project, supported by CSIRO and the Australian Climate Change Science Program, generates annual emission summaries contributing to a process of informing policies and decisions on adaptation, mitigation, and their associated costs. The summaries are linked to long-term emission scenarios based on the degree of action taken to limit emissions.
We can hear a lot of talk about rising CO2 levels coming out of Doha, but very little reporting of the 16 year pause in temperature rises worldwide. There is also a lot of talk about the danger of a projected 2 degree temperature rise. I wonder how long we will have to wait to hear a comment on actual temperatures worldwide coming out of them. The fact that CO2 levels and worldwide temperature seem to be wholly independent, seems to escape the party-goers at Doha.
stefanthedenier says:
December 3, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Per Strandberg (@LittleIceAge) says: ”Yes, we may very well miss the 2 degree target. With PDO in the tank followed by AMO and a Sun going into a grand solar minima”
Per Strandberg, next time, when you get your crystal ball out off your butt, wipe it off, first, so you can ”predict” better.. Solar minima / maxima CRAP; doesn’t control the climate; OTHERWISE, Sahara and Brazil would have had SAME climate!!! Water controls the climate, you idiots, open your eyes!!! Why you promote the outdated Pagan believes that: there is one sun for Sahara / another for Brazil. If you don’t know which climate is better,….
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Yes H2O in all its manifestations is a more likely candidate than CO2. However you are missing the Solar-Ocean connection.
Graphs of solar – ocean
http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/images/instruments/sim/fig01.gif
http://www.klimaatfraude.info/images/sverdrup.gif
Absorption at various ocean depths: http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/images/instruments/sim/fig01.gif
Ocean heat content: http://www.klimaatfraude.info/flitspost/images/2011-05-30_021050.jpg
Sun’s variability NASA: (keep in mind what wavelengths penetrate the ocean)
Solar Wind Loses Power, Hits 50-year Low
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/23sep_solarwind/
Sources of Energy for the Earth’s Atmosphere Note the table in the middle of the article
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sdo/science/Solar%20Irradiance.html
EVE: Measuring the Sun’s Hidden Variability
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sdo/news/sdo_eve.html
Giant Breach in Earth’s Magnetic Field Discovered
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/16dec_giantbreach/
Other information
a new paper published yesterday in the journal Geophysical Research Letters from NASA GISS/Columbia University and Brown University titled: Hydroclimate of the northeastern United States is highly sensitive to solar forcing
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/29/giss-finally-concedes-a-significant-role-for-the-sun-in-climate/
From POPTECH http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html
You can go there to find the links
These are some of the Climate – Solar influence papers
Solar Variability as a Factor in the Fluctuations of Climate during Geological Time
(Geografiska Annaler: Series B, Human Geography, Volume 31, pp. 295-315, 1949)
– H. C. Willett
Variations in Radiocarbon Concentration and Sunspot Activity
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 66, Issue 1, pp.273, January 1961)
– M. Stuiver
Solar-Climate Relationships in the Post-Pleistocene
(Science, Volume 171, Number 3977, pp. 1242-1243, March 1971)
– J. Roger Bray
Solar Magnetic Sector Structure: Relation to Circulation of the Earth’s Atmosphere
(Science, Volume 180, Number 4082, pp. 185-186, April 1973)
– John M. Wilcox et al.
Solar Radiation Changes and the Weather
(Nature, Volume 245, Number 5426, pp. 443-446, October 1973)
– J. W. King
Influence of Solar Magnetic Sector Structure on Terrestrial Atmospheric Vorticity
(Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Volume 31, Issue 2, pp. 581–588, March 1974)
– John M. Wilcox et al.
Sun-weather relationships
(Astronautics and Aeronautics, Volume 13, pp. 10-19, April 1975)
– J. W. King
Seasonal variation and magnitude of the solar sector structure–atmospheric vorticity effect
(Nature, Volume 255, Number 5509, pp. 539-540, June 1975)
– John M. Wilcox et al.
On the reality of a sun-weather effect (solar magnetic structure effect on vorticity)
(Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Volume 33, pp. 1113-1116, June 1976)
– John M. Wilcox et al.
Variations in the Earth’s Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages
(Science, Volume 194, Number 4270, pp. 1121-1132, December 1976)
– J. D. Hays, John Imbrie, N. J. Shackleton
Climate and the changing sun
(Climatic Change, Volume 1, Number 2, pp. 173-190, June 1977)
– John A. Eddy
Variations in sunspot structure and climate
(Climatic Change, Volume 2, Number 1, pp. 79-92, March 1979)
– Douglas V. Hoyt
Intensity of tropospheric circulation associated with solar magnetic sector boundary transits
(Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics, Volume 41, Issue 6, pp. 657-659, June 1979)
– John M. Wilcox et al.
Terrestrial, Solar and Galactic Origin of the Earth’s Geophysical Variables (PDF)
(Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, Volume 66, Number 1/2, pp. 1-9, 1984)
– Nils-Axel Morner
Sunspots, the QBO, and the stratospheric temperature in the north polar region
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 14, Number 5, pp. 535-537, May 1987)
– Karin Labitzke
Influence of solar variability on global sea surface temperatures
(Nature, Volume 329, Number 6135, pp. 142-143, September 1987)
– George C. Reid
Solar rotation, impulses of the torque in the Sun’s motion, and climatic variation
(Climatic Change, Volume 12, Number 3, pp. 265-295, June 1988)
– Theodor Landscheidt
A generalized theory of sun-climate/weather link and climatic change (PDF)
(Il Nuovo Cimento C, Volume 12, Number 5, pp. 597-611, September 1989)
– Ernest C. Njau
Evidence for long-term brightness changes of solar-type stars
(Nature, Volume 348, Number 6301, pp. 520-523, December 1990)
– Sallie Baliunas, Robert Jastrow
Sun-controlled spatial and time-dependent cycles in the climatic/weather system
(Il Nuovo Cimento C, Volume 15, Number 1, pp. 17-23, January 1991)
– Ernest C. Njau
Solar total irradiance variation and the global sea surface temperature record
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 96, Number D2, pp. 2835–2844, February 1991)
– George C. Reid
Length of the Solar Cycle: An Indicator of Solar Activity Closely Associated with Climate (PDF)
(Science, Volume 254, Number 5032, pp. 698-700, November 1991)
– Eigil Friis-Christensen, K. Lassen
Relationships between relative sunspot numbers and air temperature
(Meteorologische Zeitschrift. Volume 2, Number 3, pp. 121-126, June 1993)
– Werner Mende, Rita Stellmacher
A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700-1992 (PDF)
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 98, Number A11, pp. 18,895-18,906, November 1993)
– Douglas V. Hoyt, Kenneth H. Schatten
Evidence on the climate impact of solar variations
(Energy, Volume 18, Issue 12, pp. 1285-1295, December 1993)
– Sallie Baliunas, Robert Jastrow
Solar activity variations and global temperature
(Energy, Volume 18, Issue 12, pp. 1273-1284, December 1993)
– Eigil Friis-Christensen
Maximum and minimum temperatures at armagh observatory, 1844-1992, and the length of the sunspot cycle (PDF)
(Solar Physics, Volume 152, Number 1, pp. 35-42, June 1994)
– C. J. Butler
The link between the solar dynamo and climate – The evidence from a long mean air temperature series from Northern Ireland
(Irish Astronomical Journal, Volume 21, Number 3-4, pp. 251-254, September 1994)
– C. J. Butler, D. J. Johnston
Variability of the solar cycle length during the past five centuries and the apparent association with terrestrial climate
(Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics, Volume 57, Issue 8, pp. 835-845, July 1995)
– K. Lassen, Eigil Friis-Christensen
On solar forcing of Holocene climate: evidence from Scandinavia
(The Holocene, Volume 6, Number 3, pp. 359-365, 1996)
– Wibjorn Karlen, Johan Kuylenstierna
Comparison of proxy records of climate change and solar forcing
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 23, Number 4, pp. 359-362, February 1996)
– Thomas J. Crowley et al.
Inference of Solar Irradiance Variability from Terrestrial Temperature Changes, 1880–1993: an Astrophysical Application of the Sun-Climate Connection (PDF)
(The Astrophysical Journal, Volume 472, pp. 891, December 1996)
– Willie H. Soon, Eric S. Posmentier, Sallie L. Baliunas
The signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere
(Space Science Reviews, Volume 80, Numbers 3-4, pp. 393-410, May 1997)
– K. Labitzke, H. van Loon
What do we really know about the Sun-climate connection?
(Advances in Space Research, Volume 20, Issue 4-5, pp. 913-921, September 1997)
– Eigil Friis-Christensen, Henrik Svensmark
Solar Forcing of Global Climate Change Since The Mid-17th Century
(Climatic Change, Volume 37, Number 2, pp. 391-405, October 1997)
– George C. Reid
Solar variability and climate change: Geomagnetic aa index and global surface temperature
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 25, Number 7, pp. 1035-1038, January 1998)
– E. W. Cliver et al.
Orbital Controls on the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and the Tropical Climate
(Paleoceanography, Volume 14, Number 4, pp. 441–456, 1999)
– A. C. Clement et al.
Palaeoenvironmental evidence for solar forcing of Holocene climate: linkages to solar science
(Progress in Physical Geography, Volume 23, Number 2, pp. 181-204, 1999)
– Frank M. Chambers et al.
Solar Cycle Variability, Ozone, and Climate
(Science, Volume 284, Number 5412, pp. 305-308, April 1999)
– Drew Shindell et al.
A doubling of the Sun’s coronal magnetic field during the past 100 years
(Nature, Volume 399, Number 6735, pp. 437-439, June 1999)
– Mike Lockwood et al.
Some new relationships between temperature variations and sunspot cycles—1. Long-period variations
(Renewable Energy, Volume 18, Issue 1, pp. 25–33, September 1999)
– Ernest C. Njau
Connection between the Solar Cycle and the QBO: The Missing Link (PDF)
(Journal of Climate, Volume 13, Issue 2, pp. 328-338, January 2000)
– Murry Salby, Patrick Callaghan
Variations of solar coronal hole area and terrestrial lower tropospheric air temperature from 1979 to mid-1998: astronomical forcings of change in earth’s climate?
(New Astronomy, Volume 4, Issue 8, pp. 563-579, January 2000)
– Willie H. Soon, Sallie L Baliunas, Eric S. Posmentier, P. Okeke
Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing? (PDF)
(Annales Geophysicae, Volume 18, Number 5, pp. 583-588, May 2000)
– Willie H. Soon, Eric S. Posmentier, Sallie L Baliunas
Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change
(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 97, Number 23, pp. 12433-12438, November 2000)
– Charles A. Perry, Kenneth J. Hsu
Solar Variability and the Earth’s Climate: Introduction and Overview
(Space Science Reviews, Volume 94, Numbers 1-2, pp. 1-11, November 2000)
– George C. Reid
RossP says:
December 3, 2012 at 10:28 pm
….When you see how these academics such as Dr Canadell get caught up in the myths without doing the basic research into where the figures come from , one has to question the state of teriary education these days.
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Perhaps he and a lot of the others used this guy
Makes you wonder about just how genuine those degrees are doesn’t it?
wayne Job says:
December 4, 2012 at 2:08 am
…. I have a problem in that I can not see the problem of 2C.
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There isn’t any. Just ask the Vikings… O wait the temperature plummeted and they starved.
edmh says:
December 4, 2012 at 12:19 pm
This figure of 1.24°C seems extremely low and I cannot find it in the reference you give. Do have a more pinpoint reference?
This doesn’t make sense. Is this a calculation you have performed yourself? There would be no limit if you could keep doubling the C02 concentration whilst the relationship remained logarithmic.
I have enjoyed WUWT for a good few years now. one of the most entertaining and enlightening parts is the discourse that goes on in the comments section. I can’t, offhand, recall anyone as rude and brusque as ‘stepahnthedenier’ has been here.
I accept that this is not a very generous thing to say and will be construed as an ad hominem attack but notwithstanding some of the ludicrous reasoning he is using, his behaviour and abuse of people he wishes to debate with is showing all the signs of an unstable individual of the ‘conspiracy theory’ variety.
And apart from that he’s clearly circumnavigated the 72 hour ban he was handed. Very disappointing to see in what is usually the most well-mannered of blogs regardless of which position you take.
[Reply: I had missed Anthony’s 1:47 am ban. Thank you for pointing it out. All stefanthedenier comments following the ban are now deleted. — Mod.]
Anthropogenic Denial.
Man cannot affect the CO2 levels. (Controlled, with long lags, by ocean temperature).
CO2 cannot affect the climate (H2O feedback and processes rapidly compensate and overcompensate for any minor tweaking CO2 does.)
I.e.: Fortunately, nothing we do to get energy from burning carbon will affect the climate.
BUT–
Making energy in wasteful and costly non-CO2 generating ways impoverishes and kills many millions.
.
@Nylo;
The max density at 4°C applies only to freshwater. Sea water increases “all the way down”. So no lab demo is gonna work the way you think it will.