We’ve already posted on how China is moving right along now as the big kahuna of CO2 emissions, now it seems there’s some despair over the inability to miss the imagined 2°C target set by wishful thinkers.
From CSIRO: The widening gap between present emissions and the two-degree target
Carbon dioxide emission reductions required to limit global warming to 2°C are becoming a receding goal based on new figures reported today in the latest Global Carbon Project (GCP) calculations published today in the advanced online edition of Nature Climate Change.
“A shift to a 2°C pathway requires an immediate, large, and sustained global mitigation effort,” GCP executive-director and CSIRO co-author of the paper, Dr Pep Canadell said.
Global CO2 emissions have increased by 58 per cent since 1990, rising 3 per cent in 2011, and 2.6 per cent in 2012. The most recent figure is estimated from a 3.3 per cent growth in global gross domestic product and a 0.7 per cent improvement in the carbon intensity of the economy.
Dr Canadell said the latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track at the high end of a range of emission scenarios, expanding the gap between current trends and the course of mitigation needed to keep global warming below 2°C.
He said on-going international climate negotiations need to recognise and act upon the growing gap between the current pathway of global greenhouse emissions and the likely chance of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
The research, led by Dr Glen Peters from CICERO, Norway, compared recent carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion, cement production, and gas flaring with emission scenarios used to project climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
“We need a sustained global CO2 mitigation rate of at least 3 per cent if global emissions are to peak before 2020 and follow an emission pathway that can keep the temperature increase below 2˚C,” Dr Peters said.
“Mitigation requires energy transition led by the largest emitters of China, the US, the European Union and India”.
He said that remaining below a 2°C rise above pre-industrial levels will require a commitment to technological, social and political innovations and an increasing need to rely on net negative emissions in future.
The Global Carbon Project, supported by CSIRO and the Australian Climate Change Science Program, generates annual emission summaries contributing to a process of informing policies and decisions on adaptation, mitigation, and their associated costs. The summaries are linked to long-term emission scenarios based on the degree of action taken to limit emissions.
But it must be all true, they modelled it!
The Global Carbon Project, supported by CSIRO and the Australian Climate Change Science FICTION Program,generates annual emission summaries contributing to a process of informing policies and decisions on adaptation, mitigation, and their associated costs. The summaries are linked to long-term emission scenarios based on the degree of action taken to limit emissions.
There – fixed that last paragraph
”On losing the 2°C battle”…?!
WHY BOTH CAMPS REFER TO CO2 AS: A ‘’GREENHOUSE GAS?!’’
All normal greenhouses have solid glass roof. Glass is transparent for the sunlight; but ‘’SOLID glass’’ prevents hot air of getting out. On the other hand; CO2 is NOT transparent for the sunlight – intercepts sunlight high up = less comes to the ground.
b] CO2 & water vapor are less than 3% of the atmosphere, the rest is oxygen &nitrogen. Which means: ‘’ if one removes 97% of the roof off a normal greenhouse – that wouldn’t be a greenhouse anymore!’’ When there is a small hole on the roof of a normal greenhouse – farmer instantly plugs the hole – heat not to escape out. Warmist are lying for profit and power / why are the ‘’Skeptics’’ misleading for, by referring CO2 &H2O as ‘’Greenhouse Gases?! Because of ignorance, or b: because they are born losers??
The CSIRO up to it’s usual tricks. Talk about misinformation being fed to the Australian sheeple. Ever since we had a rather warm day just before the start of summer (Dec 1st) and the Doha conference on climate, we’ve been deluged by climate change alamist documentaries, commentaries, news articles, weather reports/forecasts even, it appears, carefully selected TV programs and movies which hint/mention climate change in one way or another. Seriously, I want to chuck (Vomit).
Re plant life: may I recommend:
http://www.thinkgeek.com/product/e900/?pfm=Search&t=photosynthesis%20uv-sensitive%20ladies%27%20shirt
Just bought one for the #2 granddaughter for Christmas. It is great. Love the equation that starts 6CO2!!
k
I vote we ask Robert Brown (rgb) of Duke University to write a letter to Pep Canadell and Glen Peters explaining why they’re talking through their respective hats. Letter to include calculations.
Why, in fact, Robert, why haven’t you published your quantitative skepticism? I, for one, would very much like to see that done.
3 Dec: BBC World Service Business Daily: Germany’s dirty coal
Germany may have said no to nuclear power, but does that mean yes to dirty coal? Steve Evans reports from the Ruhr coalfields on the energy compromises Germany is having to make.
Plus, science fiction author David Brin talks about the likelihood of extra terrestrial life…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0112t36
also heard roger harrabin on bbc last nite as well, re Doha, bemoaning how there is now only the European Union & AUSTRALIA, representing 12 to 13% of CO2 emissions, committed to reducing emissions, which Reuters refers to below, using “below 15%”:
3 Dec: Reuters: Factbox – Unresolved disputes at U.N. climate talks in Doha
But backers among rich nations – led by the European Union and Australia – represent less than 15 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Russia, Japan and Canada are pulling out, saying it is meaningless to set new targets when major emerging nations, such as China and India, will have no binding targets. The United States never ratified Kyoto…
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/12/03/climate-talks-disputes-facts-idINDEE8B208120121203
and Australia, the fourth largest coal producer in the world, the largest exporter, with the fourth largest reserves, can export coal to China 24/7, yet is going to close down its own coal mines and is not allowed to build any new coal-fire power plants, because we are sticking with the energy resource-poor, financially bankrupt EU. when will we wake up from this nightmare?
Royal Dutch Shell repeatedly bragging how they are reducing CO2 emissions and how coal must go…after all, coal is part of their competition:
3 Dec: BBC Hardtalk: Peter Voser – Chief Executive, Royal Dutch Shell
The United States is about to become the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. Quite remarkable for a country that only a few years ago was the world’s largest importer of gas. It’s a turnaround made possible by shale and it comes at a time of rapidly increasing demand from China, India and the Middle East. Peter Voser is the boss of Royal Dutch Shell one of the biggest energy companies in the world. With economies so thirsty for power, producers are being driven to new frontiers -but at what cost?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01p529g
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Why don’t we just write a check to Al Gore
Making cement is always in the top tier of CO2 emission alarm. The story that is not told here is that 60% of CO2 in cement manufacture comes from calcination of the ingredients and this is reabsorbed by the finished concrete over the life of the structures.
http://bing.search.sympatico.ca/?q=Long%20term%20CO2%20reabsorption%20by%20concrete&mkt=en-ca&setLang=en-CA
Per Strandberg (@LittleIceAge) says: ”Yes, we may very well miss the 2 degree target. With PDO in the tank followed by AMO and a Sun going into a grand solar minima”
Per Strandberg, next time, when you get your crystal ball out off your butt, wipe it off, first, so you can ”predict” better.. Solar minima / maxima CRAP; doesn’t control the climate; OTHERWISE, Sahara and Brazil would have had SAME climate!!! Water controls the climate, you idiots, open your eyes!!! Why you promote the outdated Pagan believes that: there is one sun for Sahara / another for Brazil. If you don’t know which climate is better, AND WHY; ask the trees. One oak-tree has more knowledge about the climate, than all the ”phony skeptics Flat- Earthers” ,
Imagine a group spending all this money and they are talking about remaking civilization’s technology by 2020. This lack of grip on reality is juvenile and pathetic. 50 years would be a remarkable achievment! We can’t develop a new diamond mine or offshore oil field by 2020.
Remember, the 2C target was based on the temperature in the middle of the 19th century so allegedly, we are half way there. These targets, like 350 ppm CO2 are designed not to be achieved but to create guilt that can be alleviated by buying into some bureaucratic mandated scheme or protocol. In other words, this is much more important to the bureaucrats than it is to life on this planet.
harrydhuffman (@harrydhuffman) says: ”For any scientist like me who has the Mauna Loa CO2 measurements at hand”
No honest scientist would have taken the ”Mauna,Loa carbon measurements” seriously.Direct on the Faulty Line. Amount of CO2 in the air depends; on the amount of rainfall. Rainfall / water, is made by god, to wash things! CO2 increases condensation -> falls down with the rain. More CO2 in the air = more is washed down.
There are submarine volcanoes / hot vents in that area; spewing DIFFERENT amounts of CO2, SO2 gases, every few days. Monitoring is not for science; but the Swindlers in the area to be kept busy and practice brainwashing, from distance. Get yourself a gadget for monitoring CO2; you will see the percentage difference changes from midnight to midday, in 12h. Every Scientists believing in every crap that comes from IPCC; should had his diploma printed on a soft paper; to be of some good use…. . .
But then miraculously we, the world, will be saved.(From the imaginary heat) Of course the numbers will be complete fabrications, like all team climatology.
Menken; Imaginary hobgoblin to stampede the populace.
If Gaea worship is a religion, if nature worshiper=witch, are we about to see another ugly recycle of historical stupidity? As the weather cools and our govts are unprepared.
Or is lying, exaggeration, name-calling, inciting fear & violence now acceptable public discourse?
Climatology, the art of fabricating information out of noise. Known as Garbage In Gospel Out.
Perhaps I and other readers here take ourselves too seriously, yes I was raised to believe in the public good, but when so many people choose to be hysterical about the weather, human nature says we should help them.
By profiting off of their idiocy, depriving them of wealth and prestige.
Its the christian thing to do, they obviously feel guilty for having wealth and comfort and they’re using that wealth and their social positions to destroy our way of life and wealth. Far too many, of the weather fetish people, have govt jobs and in their idiocy are in fact gnawing at the foundations of our society.(there’s a hat tip due here but I forget who)
When we acknowledge our bankruptcy, the mass firing of our “help” will go a long way in restoring sanity to public affairs.
This is one way of democratizing the faith, your faithful can voluntarily become poor and uncomfortable. And the rest of us can feel better for helping them buttress their faith, all the way to the bank. It is our civic duty to take whatever ethical action is necessary to protect our society.
Considering what Joe Bastardi has to say about EU, Asia, etc winters of late and coming soon to your neighborhood, why would anyone in their right mind be worried over CO2 emissions?
I might suggest the focus turn to food production. The folly over emissions may soon be redirected.
http://www.weatherbell.com/videos/encoded/1354400206_2.ogg
The truth of the matter is that if the world is to be carbon equitable and meet the mythical 2 degree target, we can only emit 2.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide per person. I am officially calling this the “Cuba Scenario”, since this appears to be the amount emitted by the average person in Cuba. To put this in context; if you have an average vehicle that consumes 10 l per hundred kilometers and you travel an average annual distance of greater than 20,000 kilometers then you have already used up your carbon allocation.
Needless to say all those flunkies in Doha who are there to ensure the “Cuba Scenario” are doing so because they are taking a lend from the poorest pople in the world. In other words they stole without permission the rightful carbon allocation of the people they claim to protect. Little wonder that the World is not making progress towards that scenario.
As for Al Gore and his bunchI have no doubt that they have NOT done the math and don’t even realise that the “Cuba Scenario” allows them no more than 1 flight in their lifetime and that providing you drive a low consumption vehicle and don’t eat (Sorry Al – definitely no cavalcades).
All that said, providing everything is carbon offset you can do what you want.
pat says:
December 3, 2012 at 6:01 pm
“Royal Dutch Shell repeatedly bragging how they are reducing CO2 emissions and how coal must go…after all, coal is part of their competition”
Yes, very important that there is an awareness that our “green” oil producers are funding the “green” propagandistasses to lobby your local “green lettuce absorbing” legislative gurus (enter sucking sound) to abandon coal to be replaced with none other than …methane… aka “natural gas” …the “clean energy” that is more natural than evil CO2 “pollution” by which we will all become blackened pepper steak. Think levity…or levitation… as in lost heat rises…into the darkness of space. 🙂
At least New Zealand has seen some sense. Not going to sign up to Kyoto2. Despite NZ jumping the gun with the CO2 ETS to appease UN Dopenhagen IPCC 2009 Brownie Point scoring.
Now the local Chicken Little AGW/CC Greenie Watermelons are having a meltdown. 🙂
@Theo Goodwin,
“So, the word “mitigation” now means reducing CO2 output? I thought there was another word for that. I thought mitigation was taking action against the rising sea levels and all such supposed results of rising CO2.”
No, taking action against the rising sea levels and all such supposed results of rising CO2 would be adaptation not mitigation.
“””””…..Marian says:
December 3, 2012 at 8:10 pm
At least New Zealand has seen some sense. Not going to sign up to Kyoto2. Despite NZ jumping the gun with the CO2 ETS to appease UN Dopenhagen IPCC 2009 Brownie Point scoring……”””””
Izzat a fact Marian ? or a wish ? A year or two ago, I wrote to PM John Key, and told him that it was downright embarrassing, as a Kiwi Physicist, to read about NZ biting into the apple, and following those Aussie convict degenerates down the carbon rat hole. I suggested he and NZ could become world leaders, by telling the Kyoto Klowns to “Shove it !”, or more succinctly; “Nuts!”, or “Go jump in the Tasman Sea !”, and he could become PM for life.
NZ, like the USA, is a net carbon sink, because of its huge farmed forests, that gobble carbon, like no old growth forest can. John Key sort of gave me the bum’s rush, and shuttled me over to Sir what’s’isname, the Science advisor, who told me politely; excuse me, that’s Very politely, that the apple tasted good, and he was going to eat the whole thing.
It was a big disappointment to discover how little influence I had; but if the PM has seen the light, I should drop him another note, and praise him for doing the sensible thing.
It would be great if he could drag that other species, over there on the Big Island along with him. I have some family and even some real Mates, over in that den of bread loaf robbers, and it would be nice to get them out on parole too. Hey maybe it’s time for the ANZACS to get their revenge !
ROM @ur momisugly 4.34. Keep posting that article. It will sink into a few of the warmists mind one day.
When you see how these academics such as Dr Canadell get caught up in the myths without doing the basic research into where the figures come from , one has to question the state of teriary education these days.
harrydhuffman (@harrydhuffman) says: ”For any scientist like me who has the Mauna Loa CO2 measurements at hand”
Well said Harry. The last 22 years has increased CO2 levels by 37ppm. From 1968 to 1990 (the previous 22 years) the increase was 31ppm. Hardly 58%.
!968 – 323ppm
1990 – 354ppm
2012 – 391ppm (Oct)
Andi Cockroft says:
Yes that’s what the architects of the co2 bunkum want because they think it will lead to population reduction.
mark says:
Western economies got along just fine in the past, trading amongst just themselves without the rest of the world, so the rest of the world will get along just fine trading amongst themselves without the collapsed western economies.
eo says:
Already happening. The most rapidly growing vehicle brand within Europe is Dacia, a Romanian car company bought by Renault, the right hand drive cars for this brand being imported into the UK are made in India. They are nearly half the price of competing brands, there is a 6 month waiting list.
stefanthedenier says:
Sahara /Brazil, these are local climates within an overall global climate which is what Per Strandberg was talking about. Unless you have another explanation for the Maunder minimum and the LIA. Currently the most widely accepted theory for the LIA and certainly the MM is the pagan belief in the sun god, ie. sunspot minima.
bikermailman says:
Yes it’s an interesting situation, if they can control the fallout then it is what they wanted to achieve if they are to provide western standards of living to their population then they have no choice but to reduce their population.
An excellent (long) read on the subject of China’s coming demographic problems;
http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2010/09/china-population-wang
If I understand correctly, CO2 has risen from <320ppm in 1960 to ~394ppm presently. According to the IPCC computer models, what should the global temperature rise have been for this period?
There is probably not a simple answer to this question, but approximately please.
Thanks!