NOAA SWPC has updated their plot page of solar metrics, and the slump continues.
At spaceweather.com Dr. Tony Phillips writes:
SO THIS IS SOLAR MAXIMUM? Forecasters have long expected the Solar Max of 2013 to be the weakest of the Space Age. It might be even weaker than they thought. As shown in this 20-year plot of sunspot counts vs. time, the sun is underperforming:
Sunspot numbers are notoriously variable, so the actual counts could rapidly rise to meet or exceed the predicted curve. For now, however, the face of the sun is devoid of large sunspots, and there have been no strong flares in more than a week. The threshold of Solar Max looks a lot like Solar Min. NOAA forecasters estimate no more than a 1% chance of X-class solar flares in the next 24 hours.
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Here’s the other metrics, which are also “underperforming”.
The Ap magnetic proxy for the solar magnetic activity also continues weak, never having recovered from the step change seen in October 2005.
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Geoff Sharp said something.
I’m going to tell Geoff to get his fu*n act together.
Leif, how does the sun cool the Earth?
This time use the brains God give you.
Neptune is cold an windy.
Sparks says:
November 8, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Leif, how does the sun cool the Earth?
I don’t think it does. The Earth cools because it is sitting in cold [2K] almost empty space.
David Archibald says:
November 8, 2012 at 8:54 pm
Geoff that is a fabulous paper. Full of goodies including:
Yes, was amazed when I learned of the authors involved. But not too many are discussing it here?
Leif, how does the sun warm the Earth?
Sparks says:
November 8, 2012 at 10:10 pm
Leif, how does the sun warm the Earth?
By supplying an almost constant stream of photons each with a certain amount of energy. The Earth reflects some the photons back into space, but 70% get through and are absorbed by [mainly] the surface thus warming it. Now, you may have meant the atmosphere of the Earth. In that case the heat from the surface is [mainly] conducted and convected aloft.
Geoff Sharp says:
November 8, 2012 at 10:08 pm
But not too many are discussing it here?
The paper is at variance with and disagrees with your Angular Momentum ideas if you want discussion.
Leif, So the sun can cool our Earth by not supplying an almost constant stream of photons each with a certain amount of energy. Interesting.
Leif Svalgaard says:
November 8, 2012 at 10:21 pm
The paper is at variance with and disagrees with your Angular Momentum ideas if you want discussion.
I am not so sure, the torque calculations need to be explained more clearly, but the solar path around the SSB appears to be a key component. Solar torque and AM are very closely related and show the same perturbations at the key positions.
I have some reservations about any spectral type of data analysis when it comes to solar records. When you understand grand minima principles it becomes clear this type of analysis will never find any real cycle. The 208 years is merely an artifact or most common spacing between solar downturns.
A post dedicated to this paper is required.
Leif, going by how the cycles & connections crowd looks at things, perhaps the “how does the sun cool” is related to this bit from that link:
Nature of the solar wind during Grand Minima. Both Parker and Eddy suggested that the solar wind might have been of “gale force” in all directions during the Maunder Minimum.
Maunder Minimum, solar wind, Little Ice Age. Throw in a few graphs from Vuk showing the strong correlation and it’s obvious the Sun can cool. Etc.
Thanks for the link. Been awhile since my Physics Bach., never really used it. I don’t recognize the participants and the exact theories they propound. But it was a good read for the science, and my absorption and retention rates are increasing.
Self-study may be slow, but as opposed to my college experience I am learning, and not just where to find what info in which textbook.
Of course, we (including Dr.S) know that planets affect solar cycles. What otherwise would be random outbursts of magnetic activity, feeds into Jupiter’s powerful and huge magnetosphere that extends beyond Saturn, with which it regularly merges with, and from the chaos there is order governing the solar magnetic field
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm
However randomness is not totally eradicated and is reflected to a minor degree in variability of cycle length and amplitude.
Of far more consequence is how this affects the Earth and its climate. Having solid crust, liquid outer core and solid inner core, due to internal differential rotation, a ripple arises in its liquid core where its magnetic filed is generated. The rest is here:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/EarthNV.htm
Steven Mosher:
The CO2 curve is boring, geomagnetic oscillations are far more fun
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/A-A.htm
Kadata says:
You do not see the problem. You are enamored with a man who saw cycles everywhere. You want to see cycles everywhere. Cycles are deterministic, they provide order and structure. Predictability.
Did you at least look at http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/dewey/case_for_cycles.pdf ?
Did you read about Dewey’s consultation with Feynman regarding interpretation of cycles?
If not, then you have a close and prejudiced mind.
Dewey and I see cycles everywhere because they are everywhere. This is attested to by proper statistical procedures and proven to work by the ability to make forecasts. Using multiple cycles allows the best predictions of sunspot numbers and global temperatures.
But do not presume to know my needs and motives.
Geoff Sharp says (November 8, 2012 at 11:03 pm):
… The 208 years is merely an artifact or most common spacing between solar downturns.
Are you referring to just the last few hundred years of instrumental records of SSNs? Because solar proxies (both C14 and Be10) show the 208 year cycle for about 10,000 years. That hardly should be classified as an artifact.
Ray Tomes says:
November 9, 2012 at 12:36 am
Are you referring to just the last few hundred years of instrumental records of SSNs? Because solar proxies (both C14 and Be10) show the 208 year cycle for about 10,000 years. That hardly should be classified as an artifact.
Hi Ray, I was referring to the Holocene record. Email me one day and we will discuss.
vukcevic says:
November 9, 2012 at 12:15 am
Of course, we (including Dr.S) know that planets affect solar cycles. What otherwise would be random outbursts of magnetic activity, feeds into Jupiter’s powerful and huge magnetosphere
As usual you are violating the laws of physics. The solar wind is supersonic and disturbances do not travel upstream towards the Sun, but as usual you refuse to learn.
vukcevic says:
November 9, 2012 at 12:15 am
Of course, we (including Dr.S) know that planets affect solar cycles. What otherwise would be random outbursts of magnetic activity, feeds into Jupiter’s powerful and huge magnetosphere that extends beyond Saturn, with which it regularly merges with, and from the chaos there is order governing the solar magnetic field
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm
However randomness is not totally eradicated and is reflected to a minor degree in variability of cycle length and amplitude.
Of far more consequence is how this affects the Earth and its climate. Having solid crust, liquid outer core and solid inner core, due to internal differential rotation, a ripple arises in its liquid core where its magnetic filed is generated. The rest is here:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/EarthNV.htm
I find your comments interesting. It would make sense that during a cycle of low polar magnetic strength and umbral field strength fading, that there would have to be another electromagnetic driver that influences the sun. I’m curious, are you partial to the electric universe model?
Leif Svalgaard says:
November 9, 2012 at 5:44 am
vukcevic says:
November 9, 2012 at 12:15 am
Of course, we (including Dr.S) know that planets affect solar cycles. What otherwise would be random outbursts of magnetic activity, feeds into Jupiter’s powerful and huge magnetosphere
As usual you are violating the laws of physics. The solar wind is supersonic and disturbances do not travel upstream towards the Sun, but as usual you refuse to learn.
With all due respect Dr. I believe you are making false assumptions. I believe many planets are magnetically tethered to the Sun and work outside of the space-time continuum. We have even confirmed the existence of magnetic portals and flux ropes from our own planet that have direct connections to the Sun that work independently of the IMF. What can be inferred from this is that if there is a magnetic field present, there is electric current and influence would be bi-directional.
Geoff Sharp says:
November 8, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Solar torque and AM are very closely related
Not at all. The torque is gravitational and has nothing to do with AM.
Geoff Sharp says:
November 8, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Solar torque and AM are very closely related
Not at all. The torque is gravitational and has nothing to do with AM of the planet.
project722 says:
November 9, 2012 at 6:08 am
We have even confirmed the existence of magnetic portals and flux ropes from our own planet that have direct connections to the Sun that work independently of the IMF. What can be inferred from this is that if there is a magnetic field present, there is electric current and influence would be bi-directional.
No. the flux ropes are from the Sun and are part of the IMF. The solar wind plasma which is electrically neutral drags the frozen-in magnetic field with it from the Sun and impacts the Earth and planets. Very high-energy electrons from solar flares are not frozen-in and bounce freely back and forth between the foot-points of the flux ropes. Since the go in both directions they do not constitute a current, and their density is very low having no effect on anything.
Leif Svalgaard says:
November 9, 2012 at 6:42 am
project722 says:
November 9, 2012 at 6:08 am
We have even confirmed the existence of magnetic portals and flux ropes from our own planet that have direct connections to the Sun that work independently of the IMF. What can be inferred from this is that if there is a magnetic field present, there is electric current and influence would be bi-directional.
No. the flux ropes are from the Sun and are part of the IMF. The solar wind plasma which is electrically neutral drags the frozen-in magnetic field with it from the Sun and impacts the Earth and planets. Very high-energy electrons from solar flares are not frozen-in and bounce freely back and forth between the foot-points of the flux ropes. Since the go in both directions they do not constitute a current, and their density is very low having no effect on anything.
Are you using the terms flux ropes and portals interchangeably? It is my understanding that flux ropes and portals are of different origins. The portals are a result of the reconnection process (X points) and open/close many times a day.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/mag-portals.html
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2007/11dec_themis/
project722 says:
November 9, 2012 at 8:19 am
Are you using the terms flux ropes and portals interchangeably? It is my understanding that flux ropes and portals are of different origins. The portals are a result of the reconnection process (X points) and open/close many times a day.
There are no such thing as ‘portals’. The portals is a dumbing-down term used in press releases. What happens is that when a small parcel of solar wind impacts the magnetosphere, the magnetic field in the parcel can easily connect with the Earth’s field if its direction is just right. As the solar wind is extremely variable, there are always some parcels somewhere on the boundary between the solar wind and the magnetosphere where the field directions are suitable for reconnection. The more of such parcels, the more reconnection do you get. This is a purely local process taking place at the Earth and does not feed back to the Sun. It is like water flowing over a waterfall not influencing the river 100 miles upstream from the fall.
Ray Tomes says:
November 9, 2012 at 12:36 am
Because solar proxies (both C14 and Be10) show the 208 year cycle for about 10,000 years.
No, they show that sometimes there are hints of a 200-yr cycle, but most of the time there are not.
Steven Mosher says:
November 8, 2012 at 2:55 pm
“As far as I can tell the jury is still out and the sun/earth’s climate links are complicated so the correlations are murky and not straight forward.”
The argument from ignorance….
_______________________________
No that is argument from having to deal with confounding factors in chemical processes where what is actually effecting the chemical reaction/product is completely unclear. I have knocked my head against plant production problems where it took three or more separate factors in just the right mode to produce the problem we were trying to solve. That is why I laugh at the Climastrologists who say they KNOW what is causing climate variations.
The lab had all the data production could want and the engineers STILL could not determine what caused the problem. You and the rest arguing from your Ivory Towers don’t have even a list of all the factors that could effect climate yet and you have the GALL to say I am arguing from ignorance? At least I have taken the first step on the road to knowledge and acknowledged that I do not know everything.
If you guys are such gods why haven’t you been able to produce ONE climate model that actually works for more that a few days out? HMMmmmm
Leif Svalgaard says:
November 9, 2012 at 8:31 am
project722 says:
November 9, 2012 at 8:19 am
Are you using the terms flux ropes and portals interchangeably? It is my understanding that flux ropes and portals are of different origins. The portals are a result of the reconnection process (X points) and open/close many times a day.
There are no such thing as ‘portals’. The portals is a dumbing-down term used in press releases. What happens is that when a small parcel of solar wind impacts the magnetosphere, the magnetic field in the parcel can easily connect with the Earth’s field if its direction is just right. As the solar wind is extremely variable, there are always some parcels somewhere on the boundary between the solar wind and the magnetosphere where the field directions are suitable for reconnection. The more of such parcels, the more reconnection do you get. This is a purely local process taking place at the Earth and does not feed back to the Sun. It is like water flowing over a waterfall not influencing the river 100 miles upstream from the fall.
So what is NASA showing us on the ISWA website with the Earth Sun magnetic field line/footprint connectivity cygnet? The flux ropes?