Note to Dr. Michael Mann: sarcasm only works when your don’t become the butt of the joke. Seen on Mann’s Twitter feed today with ALL CAPS for loud effect.
As the old joke goes…”now he are one”.
Even more hilarious, the peanut gallery of his Twitter feed seems to think that somehow predicting storm tracks and forecasting hurricane storm surge (as has been done long before these guys ever came on scene) is somehow something Senator James Inhofe is against and because NHC got it right, that Inhofe gets a “poke in the eye”.
It’s like some alien world of self delusion over there.
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Katrina and Sandy harmed because greens ignored what engineers predicted with math and science.
See: Reconciling hydrology with engineering, Demetris Koutsoyiannis
Predictability with climate models is a modern “wonder”!
Anagnostopoulos, G. G. , Koutsoyiannis, D. , Christofides, A. , Efstratiadis, A. and Mamassis, N.(2010)
‘A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data’, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55: 7, 1094 — 1110 DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2010.513518
Credibility of climate predictions revisited, G. G. Anagnostopoulos, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, A. Christofides, and N. Mamassis (2009)
I like the attempted slam at Romney for not wanting to pretend he’s King Kanute… (or Cnut ).
Maybe someone ought to give them a bit of history lesson…
I also saw five models that showed the storm turning right and heading out to sea. Of course, if you have many that also show it coming straight at 50 million people, you go with the bad news scenario, but still: claiming the models “got it right” is cherry-picking again.
Weather is only not climate when it’s good weather.
Or when it doesn’t get grants for CAGW research.
As far as Michael Mann is concerned, let us take a lesson from Napoleon. “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
Can former Nobel Prize winning Mr. Mann tell us as to which model predicted/forecast this storm…….
And the date when it was predicted/forecast by that same model?
Mann’s tweet is a total non-sequitur. Did any model predict the storm? There’s a big difference between tracking something that exists and predicting something that doesn’t yet exist. I don’t get who he’s trying to put down with his weird ‘zinger.’
Does a “Metorologist” study metronomes?
I think the third response quoted is a subtle dig at Obama.
Disprove these people with science, not attacks. Showing folks Hurricane Hazel, The Snow Hurricane of 1804, the Great Gale of October 1878 would be much more effective than demonizing Mann. We are at this blog for a reason, we know what Mann is. Also GFS did have Sandy 8 days before the event for several runs. There was a time when the NOGAPS, GFS, EURO, and CMC all had Sandy in Northeast. It was for that reason I began to warn clients, friends, and family of the growing threat. As is typical the GFS lost the storm for a few days, but overall the model performed well, espcially in the 0-96 hour range. Its no EURO but that’s on the American government.
Of course the Atlantic is in it’s warm phase and Pacific is in its cool phase. Its like the 1950’s all over again. Irene and Sandy were likely two of a cluster of east coast Hurricanes over the next 10-15 years. Not hype, just science. Please ask climate modelers to explain what caused Hurricane Hazel to be so destructive while not under the influence of greenhouse gases.
When Mann uses a word it means just what he chooses it to mean – neither more nor less, just like Humpty-Dumpty. Being an expert on pleonasm and wizards who are magic, Mann likes to make predictions about the future.
Anthony Watts writes:
It’s like some alien world of self delusion over there.
Welcome to the human race, Mr. Watts!
METEOR-OLOGIST, MM: “Since I can’t spell, I aren’t”
MET-OR[al]OLOGIST, the MET Office confirms he is one too.
Am I mistaken in my memories (I don’t think I am) or didn’t they say the same sort of stuff after Katrina? I seem to remember some graph trying to argue that every year after Katrina was steadily going to get worse and worse and that by the time we hit 2014ish Florida, Louisiana, et al were going to be little more than distant memories.
– MJM
@ur momisugly dp who says: This blog is becoming the worlds most widely read climate tabloid.
and Zbb who says: Disprove these people with science, not attacks. Showing folks Hurricane Hazel, The Snow Hurricane of 1804, the Great Gale of October 1878 would be much more effective than demonizing Mann. We are at this blog for a reason, we know what Mann is.
Well, Zbb–there are new people to this blog all the time and they may not know what Mann is. In addition, besides the scientifically based comments and instruction I get here–I LIKE the humor and jabs and pokes–“if you can’t laugh you…” kind of thing. I don’t want them to go away.
@ur momisugly cui bono : Aren’t you a ‘metorologist’ Anthony? Maybe it’s unwitting praise…
Someone should tweet ‘Predictions: Metorologists +1, Climate scientists still 0′. Funny! thanks!
Peter Miller says: You are all missing the point, what Mann is saying is that he is in awe of people who use maths and science. Yes, thanks Peter–I was thinking we might be reading it wrong too–his intent I mean. I was confused about it–
But finally I really want some feedback. I don’t live there now, but I used to live in Virginia in Charles City County. I remember Isabella and Bertha–and lots of ice storms. We were unindated often–people lost houses, cars, property–lives. We got flooded–had to go to public schools for proptection. I remember not being able to leave the house without a chain saw to cut through the downed trees and coming on a man in a pickup who was dead–tree came down on him. Boardwalks were torn up regularly and we lost beaches and had to put back sand and yatchs and boats were routinely smashed up and left on 1st street…We lost electricty for two or three WEEKS–not the few days they are talking about with Sandy–Sandy wasn’t even a huricane when it hit NY–
Now I KNOW the loss of life is horrible and the damage from flooding horrendous–but am I remembering wrong? Is Sandy really that much worse then horrible storms in the past?–not just Hazel as Andrew30 says. and michaeljmcfadden says: Am I mistaken in my memories (I don’t think I am) or didn’t they say the same sort of stuff after Katrina?
Am I mistaken in my memories or is this more terrible than anything in the past? Not being there, I of course can only go by the media reports–and Cristy says it is so horrible–has he lived there all his life? Or did NJ not get as many storms as Charles City County in the past? This question is very genuine on my part…
Day by Day says:
“Am I mistaken in my memories or is this more terrible than anything in the past?”
It’s weather. Not ‘climate’. And it’s only big news because it hit where so many people live.
Even with better reporting and records, extreme weather events are geting more rare:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/extreme_wx_deaths.png
Judith Curry summarizes:
CFAN predicted 4 days before NHC,. Predicted US landfall 5-6 days before NJ landfall!
So, Michael Mann thinks that those of us that demand the use of real math and science think that meteorologists don’t use it?
joated says:
October 30, 2012 at 10:28 am
“Listen to all those who are saying Sandy proves climate change iks me no end. It’s almost like they don’t understand the difference between weather and climate either. Now to try and equate the tracking of a single storm in the here and now to plotting climate decades and even centuries into the future…. The mind boggles.”
joated – this response from the climate “science” community is sadly all too predictable. Just remember that ANY bad weather event from now on is “caused” by climate. Does NOT matter time of year, temperatures up or down, rain or drought, too much wind or not enough wind, too much ice of not enough ice. It is ALL due to global warming and CO2, and we humans have the power to “stop” it. They are seriously deluded, of course, but it is all in the selfish cause of their own funding and fame. Get used to it – until we pull the government money out of the CAGW machine, we will be treated to these ridiculous pronouncements.
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, what was his point? Im tired of weather events with snappy names and worst ever headlines. Maybe if they would not cry wolf so often more people would believe them when the danger is real.
Hurricanes and peanut butter didn’t exist until man started pumping CO2 into the atmosphere.
“Romney won’t do anything to stop the rising seas”
… unlike king Canute who had his throne placed by the shore and vainly attempted to command the waves to recede until he almost drowned.
MarkW says:
October 30, 2012 at 11:48 am
“In climatology, initial conditions are pretty close to meaningless. Nor do you give a flying flip about what individual blocks of air may be doing at any given point in space and time. You are concerned with how macro scale events interact with each other.”
The initial conditions are not meaningless. The climate modelers want you to believe that but they have no theoretical basis to say that. In weather and in climate models you simulate the same thing, you are only interested in different timescales.
Saying that somehow, magically, the short term chaos of weather does not affect the long term (or low frequency) development assumes that there are two frequency domains that are shielded from each other and don’t interact.
This is such a preposterous assumption that the climate scientists can do only one thing about it: Not mention it.
Eh? Is this Mann-moron claiming they predicted the path of Storm Sandy 30 years ago???? I thought they only “predicted” Sandy a few days ago – after it had actually formed! They then went ahead and predicted that it would join with another storm front and become a “Frankenstorm” of huge proportions and strengthened winds. Well it didn’t – the winds actually dropped. Hasn’t stopped them continuing to call it “Frankenstorm” however. They did get the path of the storm roughly correct – in contrast to the many storms that ended up in hurricane alerts for storms that didn’t even make landfall (but then the sheer size of the storm helped). I don’t buy this “accurate prediction” BS. They only thing they can predict with any real certainty is when high tide will be.
One of the strong elements they’re using to buttress their arguments on the net are the pics and videos showing “end of the world” type flooding. See
http://watchingthedeniers.wordpress.com/2012/10/30/on-the-flooding-of-the-wtc-memorial-site-after-the-horrible-events-of-911-we-said-never-again-but-this-is-what-would-happen/#comments
for examples. A good counter to that would be for WUWT folks to dig up similar pics from past ordinary events if you can find them. My *guess* is that the WTC site may look almost like that during some ordinary heavy downpours in the area. And there may be similar video footage of the Jersey shore et al from ten or twenty years ago. Again, my *guess* is that we may be getting shown microcosmic imaging that has been shown to similar effect many times before, many years in the past. *IF* that’s true and you can find that imaging, it will provide a powerful counter-argument to the AGW folks portraying Frankenstorm as a unique occurrence due to AGW.
The trick in countering a powerful enemy with a propaganda stranglehold on the mainstream news/public outlets because of their money or position is to make every little arrow that you can get in count for the most it can. And exposing the lies of the enemy is one of the most powerful arrows in your quiver. Look what brought Nixon down: not Watergate, but his LIES about Watergate. Think what might bring Obama down: not Benghazi as such, but his LIES (if they are shown to be that) about what he knew and when. Unfortunately in Nixon’s case the lies were kept undercover until after the election. Obama may not be so lucky if he’s been caught with his pants down: I don’t think Rosemary Woods is still working the transcription machines at the White House!
– MJM