The latest solar cycle update graphs have been released by the NOAA SWPC today, and the anemic cycle 24 continues:
The current count isn’t keeping up with the prediction line in red. Not only is the sunspot count low, so is the 10.7cm radio flux and the Ap magnetic index:
One thing that is getting active though is the solar wind, the Boyle Index took a big jump just a couple of hours ago, values over 200 are rather rare:
ACE RTSW (Estimated) Magnetic Field & Solar Wind
NOAA – Space Weather Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source
That jump is likely due to this coronal hole CH532, now directly facing Earth:
What I find most interesting (and troubling) though is this image today of the sun from SDO:
The contrast of the sunspots is really low. The Livingston and Penn plot continues its downward slide:
Leif Svalgaard – Click the pic to view at source.
More on the L&P research and the potential for sunspots disappearing soon here: “All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while.”
More data at the WUWT Solar reference page
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Low solar activity is nothing to worry about because the control knob of the Earth’s temperature is the all powerful global warming gas CO2. It’s so powerful that it has caused the temperature to rise hundreds of years before CO2 started to rise according to ice core data.
The high Boyle index and the “step” in solar wind speed are due to the passage of a coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the sun friday evening. Note the temperature is around 100.000K and density is about 10/cm3; with a coronal hole these values would be near 1.000.000K and only a few particles/cm3.
The CME was due to the eruption of a filament. For a clip of this magnificent explosion see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKz18xwPO44 There are many more clips of this event on You Tube.
For SanityP and any others who are not familiar with this subject, may I recomment the book The Sun Kings, by Stuart Clarke. For anyone interested in the history of science, as well as the science itself, I found this to be a fascinating book.
Well, if your hypothesis of an approximately 10 year lag in response to solar activity is correct, then I can see why you say this.
Mike Mellor says:
September 3, 2012 at 10:00 am
Why has the TSI data been recalibrated since Wang Lean Sheeley? Surely TSI is a more valid metric than the sunspot count?
Sun spot count is just an indicator, Less spots appear to cause cooler temps on earth, I don`t think our esteemed scientists have figured out the actual mechanism yet.
Thanks for an interesting, though not particularly reassuring, post on our subdued sun. Getting older in a country which never misses opportunity or excuse to jack up energy prices, I have a certain grim interest in the situation. Radio propagation is pretty unspectacular most of the time too – I shan’t be suggesting a milliwatt QSO ‘twixt UK and Chico anytime soon.
It just ain’t got that maximum feelin’. Interesting times.
kramer says:
September 3, 2012 at 10:30 am
Ah, that will be all that invisible, all powerful ‘dark matter’ that only attaches itself to CO2 molecules and causes a backward warp in time to heat former times! Don’t laugh, it’s probably only a matter of time before some climate science ‘team’ comes up with such a theory……OMG, what have I done…LOL
If there is good evidence that a solar minimum is happening, and that it will have drastic effects on global temperatures, should not some group be trying to get this imformation out to the public.
Because
The global warming scare has pretty much run its course, it doesn’t really grab the average persons attention anymore. So the media is ready for the next planet ending threat. Combine that threat with the fact that, it by its very nature, proves massive fraud by all those people who lied to the poor naive media and you might have the next media meme.
And unlike GW, GC is a genuine threat to humanity. Especially as we are about due to take the big dive into another ice age.
That curve is pretty flat. I think we could peak early, like the beginning of the year.
Cooling ambient air isn’t the only crop limiter. It is colder water irrigating rice during the 10 – 12 day booting-up stage of micro-spores prior to plant reproduction’s seed heading that depresses crop yield. Approximately 4% less sterility occurs for an extra 1* Celsius water temperature. Experiments with different rice seeds irrigated prior to heading show 8 – 70% seed spike sterility if water 19.2*C; other experiments with water 12*C gave sterility from 17 – 79%.
So, a little medium to longterm speculation in property might be a good investment in Spain, Greece, etc. Could solve the Euro crisis if they can just hold out.
In 1998 solar activity wasn’t at particularly high level, and year 2010 was just one year off from solar minimum, although it was the second warmest year on record.
In contrast to that, the most active solar cycle maxima was obseved during solar cycle 19 in 1957, and yet the global average temperature on that year was 0.87 degrees celsius below of that during the last minimum, 2009.
So clearly there are other factors than just the solar activity that enforces the evolution of global temperature. And, if it’s not the shape of solar radiation spectra that explains the current temperature evolution, then there have to be something else to consider.
Could the missing factor be the fact that we have changed the composition of our planet’s atmosphere?
The Wind Speed jump isn’t from the coronal hole, It’s from a filament released CME that impacted us, creating a Moderate Geomagnetic storm. That particular coronal hole wouldn’t get to Earth until later in the week due to the Parker Spiral.
The filament eruption from Friday isn’t mentioned above. But, these are nice videos to see of it.
Different spectrum views:
One view, slow motion. I read that someone dubbed it “The Dragon” because in this view you can see as the material is about to leave the picture it looks like a dragon opening its mouth:
Just the close up of the multicolor view:
Does anyone know if there are any updated data availbale for the following image:
Jet streams
Which was referenced in this post:
I am interested in to see if cycle 25 has shown up yet, a year has passed since that plot and haven’t been able to find any updated data. I may be searching at the wrong place.
Link to the post may be suitable…
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/14/all-three-of-these-lines-of-research-to-point-to-the-familiar-sunspot-cycle-shutting-down-for-a-while/
John F. Hultquist says:
September 3, 2012 at 7:54 am
I find the following in the linked-to post:
“They also observed that spot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field.”
Note: temperatures have risen
So,
What Earth sees is down.
What Earth feels is up.
The first of the above is interpreted by many to predict a cooling Earth.
This makes no sense.
What else is going on?
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I think “temperatures have risen” is referring to the temperatures of the sunspots, not spots on the Earth.
Does anyone know if the torsional oscillation mentioned in the June 2011 WUWT article ever started up? It’s failure to do so was one of the early signs that was suposed to point to a comming Grand Minima, but I can’t find any other mentions of it past 2011.
Question: Do the more densely packed observations toward the end (2011-2012) of the umbral charts have an interpretation? Thanks.
It’s curious how often these sun slumping posts appear just before the sun bursts back to life again. Given that the last two main uplifts in activity (mid Nov 2011 and late Apr 2012) were some 154 days apart, the next repeat would be from around Sept 18th, while recent 27 day peaks would suggest the end of Sept as a focus: http://1.2.3.10/bmi/www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png
Gunga Din says:
September 3, 2012 at 12:45 pm
John F. Hultquist says:
September 3, 2012 at 7:54 am
G.D. says: I think “temperatures have risen” is referring to the temperatures of the sunspots, not spots on the Earth.
“Ay, there’s the rub”
As the temperature of the sunspots increases they brighten and do not appear against the background of the Sun – as they do when they are cooler (and darker). This seems like the surface of the Sun, being overall brighter, would be radiating more. And this causes the Earth’s atmosphere to cool — How?
There have been numerous ideas presented in the last 6.5 hours since my first comment. Many folks see the count of sunspots as a proxy for something that alters Earth’s climate. Just what that might be still eludes the best scientific minds. Those suggesting cloud formation and albedo** think they have a dog in this fight. Others argue against that. Because CO2-CAGW fails in so many ways, and we have a lot of alternatives shouting “Look at me!” – I conclude we do not know.
** http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.504.html
WTF?!
CO2 currently comprises less than 1/25th part of ONE percent of our atmosphere.
Since the 1950s it has increased from 350ppm to 390ppm or slightly less than 1/100th part of one percent.
The fact that you would attempt to link solar conditions with simultaneous measurements of the earth’s temperature indicates that you might not have much of a grasp of physics.
Do you by any chance believe in ‘homeopathy’?
John F. Hultquist says:
September 3, 2012 at 2:47 pm
… Because CO2-CAGW fails in so many ways, and we have a lot of alternatives shouting “Look at me!” – I conclude we do not know.
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I’m not a gambler. I wouldn’t bet a few trillion, even if I had it, on a theory unless it was a sure thing. CAGW isn’t a sure thing, CO2 or not.
Shoot! We can’t even say for with certainty what the global surface temperature is let alone whether it’s gone up or down. (See Watts et al.)
@ur momisugly Rhys Jaggar , thank you–that was a great mini course!
Also Jim Cripwell for recommending “The Sun Kings”
Peter says: “The global warming scare has pretty much run its course, it doesn’t really grab the average persons attention anymore.”
Unfortuantely, they already did that one too, in the 70’s. They need something new–I vote for pole reversal.
charles nelson says:
“Do you by any chance believe in ‘homeopathy’?”
For those unfamiliar with homeopathic ‘medicine’, it works something like this:
Dissolve an aspirin in an Olympic-sized swimming pool. Mix well. Then take a teaspoon of that water, put it into a different Olympic-sized pool. Mix well. Then swallow a teaspoon of that water, and your headache will disappear.
Sound preposterous? That’s homeopathy for you. And it’s not much different from the claim that a tiny trace gas will cause disruption of the atmosphere and climate catastrophe.