I called the media support line for this press release issues today, to ask a couple of questions, here are the answers:
1. Q: Besides the heat wave, what other factors are contributing? A: “A Natural Gas plant of 775 megawatts went offline last night. The San Onofre nuclear plant remains offline with no restart scheduled.”
2. Q: Where is wind power in all of this, is it performing? A: “Well as you know, wind has to blow for wind power to be effective. ”
The graph from CAISO tells the story, wind power has tumbled when it is most needed:
Of course, renewables are a drop in the bucket compared to the total demand seen here.
California ISO Declares Flex-Alert Statewide
With a major heat wave bearing down on California, the ISO is declaring a Flex Alert tomorrow through August 12.
Consumers are urged to reduce their energy use during the afternoon when air conditioners drive consumption. Find Flex Alert tips at www.caiso.com
Electricity conservation today, August 9, would also be helpful during the afternoon peak between 11:00 a.m. and 6 p.m.
Today’s Forecast peak demand: 47,125 megawatts
24-Hour Ahead Outlook for Friday, Aug 10: Flex Alert
High temperatures are forecast statewide. Energy demand is expected to be high and consumers are urged to reduce energy usage between 11:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m.
Forecast peak demand: 46,800 megawatts
48-Hour Ahead Outlook for Saturday, Aug 11: Flex Alert
The heat wave continues through the weekend. The California ISO is urging reduced energy usage between 11:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. on Saturday
Forecast peak demand: 43,000 megawatt
72-Hour Ahead Outlook for Sunday, Aug 12: Flex Alert
Temperatures will continue to be hot. Conservation is helpful between noon – 6 p.m.
Forecast peak demand: 43,000 megawatt
Go to www.caiso.com and click “Notify me” to sign up for Flex Alerts and other updates. Follow real time grid conditions at http://www.caiso.com/Pages/TodaysOutlook.aspx.
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Welcome to the third world. h/t to Roger Sowell.
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Sorry, the quote above got cut off, It was from; Steve Fletcher says:
August 10, 2012 at 11:48 am
responding to Mr Marler
Thrus and Friday of this week were both Flex Alert days (no reference at the CASIO website of an alert today).
I assume that PG&E called for an official “Smart Day” demand response from the residential market.
“The catch is that customers must be mindful of saving energy on up to 15 “SmartDays” called each season when exceptionally hot weather drives up electricity use and the cost of power on the wholesale market. On those few days, from 2 p.m. to 7 p.m., the price that PG&E charges jumps by 60 cents per kilowatt-hour.” http://www.pgecurrents.com/2012/06/21/smartrate-time-to-take-the-plunge/
On my end our little PV system sent back to the grid 6 kwh on Thursday at peak times and 5 kwh on Friday. The ramp up of temperature has been occurring earlier in the day each day this week at my location. Thank goodness we get a slight breeze coming down from the mountains just before the sun is fully up on the horizon.
Dan in California:
Thankyou for your post at August 11, 2012 at 12:21 pm.
That is good and useful information. If you have more and similar then please post it so others can share that, too.
Richard
Details on the leaking tubes that caused both reactors at SONGS to be offline for months.
Tube vibrations wore thin spots and allowed radioactive steam to escape into the atmosphere.
http://m.utsandiego.com/news/2012/jul/12/nuclear-regulators-detail-generator-damage-sidelin/
The CASIO renewable curve shows a rather steep drop off of solar generation starting at about 2 pm today. The curve was a bit jagged starting at 10 am. with a rather large dip at 1:00 with some recovery starting at 1:30. As Boulder City, NV is having some storms http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:89005.1.99999 this may explain some of the drop off in PV.
Roger Sowell says:
August 11, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Tube vibrations wore thin spots and allowed radioactive steam to escape into the atmosphere.
The leaks were on the radioactive part of the heat exchanger
http://www.nrc.gov/info-finder/reactor/songs/tube-degradation.html
The estimated leak rate was 75 gallons per day, which is less than .06 gallons per minute. The Plant Operating License allows full- power operation with a steady leak rate of less than 150 gallons per day.
The licensee reviewed the amount released and estimated it was much less than is permitted by the plant operating license. NRC inspectors independently reviewed the release data and verified the licensee’s findings. The release posed no threat to the public or the workers onsite.
The licensee determined that there was a high probability of several Unit 3 steam generator tubes failing the in-situ pressure test. In-situ testing was conducted from March 13 to March 20, 2012. The licensee accurately ranked each tube according to the probability of failure, and the top eight tubes with the highest probability of failure did fail the pressure test. All other tubes passed, and all of the failures occurred on the 3E088 steam generator. The leaking tube was one of the tubes that failed the pressure test.
SONGS Unit #3 has two steam generators with 9,727 tubes each.
http://www.nrc.gov/info-finder/reactor/songs/songs-unit-3-steam-generator-tube-wear-data.pdf
Perhaps it’s been said and I missed it but, were the gas and nuke plants offline for “Green” reasons?
I can understand that making a “Green” decision can feel good. Maybe sometimes even be good. But when “feeling good” about an energy grid is the primary goal the end result is, well, we all know the end result of “cow meets Green”.
Gunga Din:
I suspected harrywr2 would answer the question you ask at August 11, 2012 at 6:57 pm. He has not so I write to answer it.
Your question is
I answer,
“Green reasons” did not induce the plant to go offline
but
“Green reasons” have induced the need for the flex alerts.
I explain this answer as follows.
The steam generator tubes in a nuclear power station are exposed to heat and radiations from the controlled nuclear reaction. The heat boils the water in the tubes and the radiations slowly degrade the material of the tubes.
The degradation of the tube material is monitored, and when the degradation becomes too great then the tubes are replaced (as harrywr2 explains at August 11, 2012 at 5:44 pm). A power station must be shut-down for conduct of the tube replacement. And this replacement is normal maintenance which is accounted as part of the economic planning conducted before the power station is financed and built. However, all such maintenance requires that power stations stop operating.
Most maintenance is scheduled, but the shut-down for tube replacement is not precisely scheduled because it cannot be known when the degradation of tube material will become discernible.
The grid system is constructed such that the system does not fail (i.e. does not provide power cuts) when power stations shut-down for maintenance.
Importantly, the system requires sufficient ‘spare capacity’ such that loss of a power station does not provide power cuts. And the system is constructed with such sufficient ‘spare capacity’.
However, as I explain in my post at August 11, 2012 at 1:20 am, addition of wind power to the system increases the need for ‘spare capacity’. And California has added wind power to its grid supply system. So, when the expected but unscheduled maintenance of the nuclear power station was needed then the ‘flex alerts’ were needed. As I said
Richard
harrywr2 said: “Montana is on the BPA/PNW power grid. The Cut Bank Windfarm is tied into the Hungry Horse Dam which is tied into the Grand Coulee Dam which in turn is tied into the John Day Dam where the Pacific DC Intertie is located.”
So Harry, does even a single electron make it from a windmill in Montana to a toaster in San Diego? If not, how is this not a shell game? Some San Diegan is paying for “green energy” from Montana while receiving who-knows-what kind of energy from a nearby generator.
@richardscourtney re radiation causing leaks in tubes.
Absolutely false. Where do you get such false information?
The tubes were thinned due to rubbing against tube supports, induced by unexpected tube vibrations.
Roger Sowell:
I am getting fed up with your pro-wind propaganda which spouts total nonsense while pretending that those who understand your falsehoods are ignorant. The latest example of this behaviour is your post at August 12, 2012 at 7:47 am which says in total
My correct information is basic material science and is known to all material scientists. I admit that I simplified because I was posting on a blog. But what I wrote is correct.
Read this paper from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which is available at
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Magazines/Bulletin/Bull043/04305001518.pdf
It is titled
RADIATION DAMAGE IN SOLIDS AND REACTOR MATERIALS
and it begins by saying
Hardly considered a separate area of science some 20 to 25 years ago, solid state physics has now become a vigorous and rapidly growing discipline.
The reason for its great stimulation is that modern technology has placed increasingly drastic demands on materials. Nowhere perhaps is this trend more evident than in nuclear technology, where the novel demands for certain optimum combinations of physical properties have necessitated an almost complete r e examination of materials and their associated properties from both fundamental and technological points of view. One of the most important requirements imposed by this new application is an entirely new one, viz. radiation stability. In order for a material to be useful within a nuclear reactor it must be able to withstand not only high temperatures but also high fluxes of energetic nuclear radiation for prolonged periods.
(my emphasis RSC)
So, metals in nuclear reactors experience degradation directly from exposure to radiations.
Then read the paper titled
Eddy Current Signal Analysis Techniques for Assessing Degradation of Support Plate
Structures in Nuclear Steam Generators
By
Laura OBRUTSKY, Robert CASSIDY, Miguel CAZAL, Ken SEDMAN, AECL CRL,
Nucleoléctrica Argentina Sociedad Anónima, Bruce Power, Argentina
It is available at
http://www.ndt.net/article/ecndt2006/doc/Th.3.1.2.pdf
Recent eddy current (ET) inspections of two nuclear power plants revealed
degradation of some of the tube support plate (TSP) structures, which was also
confirmed by visual inspection. The phenomena was described as metal loss, caused
by flow-accelerated corrosion [FAC] of the carbon steel trefoil support plate and varying
from minor to complete loss of the ligaments. This loss of TSP ligaments results in
lack of support for the adjacent tubes making them more susceptible to fretting-wear
damage and fatigue cracking.
(my emphasis RSC)
So, radiation exposure reduces the resistance to FAC of the metal supports for nuclear reactor steam tubes so the tubes become loose and suffer fretting-wear.
And read the statement from the IAEA at
http://www.iaea.org/NuclearPower/Engineering/CRP/FAC/
which includes this
All reactor types have experienced some type of FAC related events in their piping systems. Many utilities have started the analysis of pipe wall thinning phenomenon using the available large amount of measurement data from operating plants. Plants have had FAC campaigns implemented for many years, and even with a mature and established FAC approach, events continue to occur.
(my emphasis RSC)
Their “piping systems” include their tube supports.
And read this statement from the Argonne National Laboratory concerning corrosion and mechanical degradation in pressurised water reactor (PWR) nuclear power stations in the item at
http://www.ne.anl.gov/capabilities/cmm/highlights/sgt_integrity_program.html
Steam generator tubes, which account for more than 50% of the primary pressure boundary surface of PWRs, have experienced in-service corrosive and mechanical degradation of various forms since the beginning of PWR commercial operation in the late 1950s. Various forms of degradation have resulted in the plugging of well over 100,000 tubes to date around the world. In addition, 68 steam generators in 22 U.S. plants had been replaced by the end of 1998 at a cost of about $100 to $200 million each, and more replacements are underway or planned.
In summation, the tubes thinned because of the common experience in PWRs that radiation damage loosened the supports in the steam generating piping system with resulting fretting-wear inducing the thinning of the tubes.
In my simple explanation of this immense subject I stated
I do not consider that statement to be “absolutely false”. Indeed, I consider it to be clear and accurate as a simple explanation for non-material scientists who read a blog. (Of course, I would provide much more information and detail of this complex subject if I were writing a university course unit).
Richard
eric1skeptic says:
August 12, 2012 at 7:13 am
So Harry, does even a single electron make it from a windmill in Montana to a toaster in San Diego? If not, how is this not a shell game? Some San Diegan is paying for “green energy” from Montana while receiving who-knows-what kind of energy from a nearby generator.
It has always been a shell game.
Most of the windmills in Washington and Oregon are congregated near the Pacific DC Intertie.
So a strong case can be made that the Wind Power from Washington and Oregon is being exported directly to Californians until we look at the fact that Washington and Oregon are importing coal power from Montana, Northern Wyoming and Northern Nevada. Simple fix…put up windmills in Montana and Wyoming at Californian Electric Utility Payer expense.
San Diego Gas and Electric is the party paying for the windmills in Montana.
http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/naturener-gets-m-loan-for-wind-farm-near-cut-bank/article_1e8ee8f8-3bda-11e1-9be5-001871e3ce6c.html
And here we go…a delegation from Wyoming(home of 40% of US coal production) recently visited California in an effort help themselves to some of California’s ‘Green’ money.
http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/wyoming/wyoming-seeks-california-colorado-wind-power-buyers/article_309de46f-af42-5d7b-980c-5bb2421de736.html
When high pressure areas park themselves, the area below heats up and wind usually falls off to unnoticeable at the center. Why should California’s experience with wind power be such a surprise. When it is needed most, wind power will generally be unavailable.
Wind power must be backed up by at least 90% as the Germans have learned from their experience. So, California has the answer: Hope the already strained backup systems stay on line, don’t build any new backup capacity, and pray for wind and Sun. It is laughable yet sad.
Roger Sowell says:
August 10, 2012 at 5:34 am
Regarding the demand and power shortage, the State does not consider wind power reliable so gas, nuclear, and large hydroelectric are required to meet peak load.
Actually, some wind power was included in California’s 2012 On Peak Summer Analysis – It’s in Appendix D of this report –
http://www.caiso.com/Documents/Briefing_SummerLoads_ResourcesOperationsPreparednessAssessment-Report-MAR2012.pdf
The problem with the formula is that there isn’t good data on large blocking highs since they tend to be infrequent.
California is lucky the Pacific Northwest Reservoir levels are high, because we don’t have any wind either but we still have plenty of hydro to spare.