UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2012: +0.37 deg. C
By Dr. Roy Spencer
The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for June (+0.37 °C) was up from May 2012 (+0.29 °C). Click on the image for the super-sized version:
The 4th order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.
Here are the monthly stats:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 01 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 02 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 03 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 04 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 05 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 06 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 07 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 08 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 09 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054
2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024
2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041
2012 1 -0.089 -0.058 -0.120 -0.137
2012 2 -0.111 -0.014 -0.209 -0.276
2012 3 +0.111 +0.129 +0.094 -0.106
2012 4 +0.299 +0.413 +0.185 -0.117
2012 5 +0.292 +0.444 +0.141 +0.033
2012 6 +0.369 +0.540 +0.199 +0.140
As a reminder, the most common reason for large month-to-month swings in global average temperature is small fluctuations in the rate of convective overturning of the troposphere, discussed here.
UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2012: +0.37 deg. C
July 6th, 2012
The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for June (+0.37 °C) was up from May 2012 (+0.29 °C). Click on the image for the super-sized version:
The 4th order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.
Here are the monthly stats:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 01 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 02 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 03 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 04 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 05 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 06 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 07 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 08 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 09 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054
2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024
2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041
2012 1 -0.089 -0.058 -0.120 -0.137
2012 2 -0.111 -0.014 -0.209 -0.276
2012 3 +0.111 +0.129 +0.094 -0.106
2012 4 +0.299 +0.413 +0.185 -0.117
2012 5 +0.292 +0.444 +0.141 +0.033
2012 6 +0.369 +0.540 +0.199 +0.140
As a reminder, the most common reason for large month-to-month swings in global average temperature is small fluctuations in the rate of convective overturning of the troposphere, discussed here.
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The 4th order polinomial is a lovely cyclic curve. Wonder why? (Sarc off)
John Marshall says:
August 1, 2012 at 2:47 am
> The 4th order polinomial [sic] is a lovely cyclic curve. Wonder why? (Sarc off)
Since when is a polynomial cyclic? (Without using imaginary exponents, any EE can explain.)
The reason it “is for entertainment purposes only” is in part due to what happens if you expend the curve backward or forward in time – either direction races off towards infinity in just a few years. For odd order polynomials, one extension will pass absolute zero and keep going.
Be entertained, no need to be sarcastic.
RichieP says:
July 31, 2012 at 4:43 pm
“The weatherman on the tv here in the UK said “It’ll feel more like February than August” tomorrow. Most of the summer has been like this, just as it has been with the Scandinavians.”
Yes, July is mostly rain nowadays here in Norway. August is the new summer-month here. Funny.
The whole post appears to have been double-pasted. At least, I can’t see any difference between the two versions.
On the first post the table has compressed against the left margin. The table in the second post is more readable. Probably best to remove the first one; its only causing confusion.
I’m still not sure what’s going on with this post. Dr Spencer’s July figure is due in the coming days so what is this all about?
phlogiston:
Yes that’s what I feel -the July temps at 14000′ and 25000′ is definitely down on June 2012 and on July 2011.
One of the sunniest and driest summers for years in Iceland. Too dry say the farmers, but tourists love it.
July is +0.28°C
If James Hansen had made an error like Watts has done in the headline for this article, Watts would use that as evidence that data is being fudged.
“The 4th order polynomial fit to the data”
Fourth order? When did it become forth order? I seem to remember a month or two ago it was third order. Whatever it is, it is wholly arbitrary and should be removed from the plot. Humans are good enough to find their own patterns and by placing a curve over the data it is implied that there is some meaning to the curve. Takeaways at the bottom of the plot, i.e. “is for entertainment purposes only”, only take away more value from the credibility of data.
Dinostratus says:
Fourth order? When did it become forth order? I seem to remember a month or two ago it was third order. Whatever it is, it is wholly arbitrary and should be removed from the plot. Humans are good enough to find their own patterns and by placing a curve over the data it is implied that there is some meaning to the curve.
What an odd crusade you have embarked on: the elimination from math and science of regression plots.
Do keep us updated on your progress.
Unintentionally prescient as it may turn out, as July is looking like being somewhere around +0.29C
Now it’s out! http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ – July anomaly 0.28°C.
“What an odd crusade you have embarked on: the elimination from math and science of regression plots.”
Nah. Actually credibly presenting data is nothing new. It is normally taught along side how to take data. There’s no point in taking credible data if one doesn’t want to present it with the same credibility. Edward Tufte is the current guru of data presentation and he has a nice phrase that is apropos, “…presenters should know their content and respect their audience.” Putting a curve fit from excel over top the data for “entertainment purposes” shows a lack of respect for the audience.
So riddle me this defender of math and science, does the polynomial converge? Is it even a good polynomial? Perhaps it’s not and that’s why the order changes from month to month.
Dinostratus says:
Putting a curve fit from excel over top the data for “entertainment purposes” shows a lack of respect for the audience.
Yes, we get it. You have dedicated your life to the elimination of regression plots.
You will face many tribulations on your quest, Dino Quixote. Big Math (that is what you should call them, for the dramatic effect) has been pushing regression plots ever since Legendre and Gauss started pulling the wool over people’s eyes in the early 19th century. They aren’t going to give up their wicked ways without a fight.
So struggle on, gallant Dino! Always know that, come what may, the peoples will be behind you!
Pointing and laughing.