I cringe every time I see stories like the one being pushed in the Associated Press today by AP science writer Seth Borenstein.
My Way News – This US summer is ‘what global warming looks like’ http://apnews.myway.com/article/20120703/D9VP9J681.html
Even Drudge picked it up.
The amount of unsupported speculation trying to be passed off as science is nothing more than the classic appeal to authority. In this case, the “authority” is NCAR’s Dr. Kevin Trenberth, a man with so much hatred for alternate viewpoints that he refused to remove the holocaust word “denier” from his keynote address to the American Meteorological Society.
This reminds me of the Russian heat wave of 2010.
The same people made essentially the same comments, then months later the peer reviewed literature (published by NOAA researchers no less) said that it was caused by natural variation…a blocking high pressure pattern. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/09/noaa-findsclimate-change-blameless-in-2010-russian-heat-wave/
That was followed up by another paper saying the same thing: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/29/another-paper-shows-that-the-russian-heatwave-of-2010-was-due-to-natural-variability/
We have essentially the same thing happening here, a persistent quasi-stationary weather pattern, part of the normal natural variation.
As for the derecho, it is hardly new. The word was first used in the American Meteorological Journal in 1888 by Gustavus Detlef Hinrichs in a paper describing the phenomenon and based on a significant derecho event that crossed Iowa on 31 July 1877. Further, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has catalogued them through the years. According to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, climatology, the Washington DC area gets a derecho about once every four years:
As I said in my essay, The idea that the recent derecho is linked to global warming is pure folly spun by people that wish to exploit any remotely plausible situation for political purposes. It happens on a regular basis, for example when they try to link tornado outbreaks to global warming: The folly of linking tornado outbreaks to “climate change”.
Or how about the disparity in “weather is not climate except when we say it is” blame game: New York Times Blames 2009’s Record Cold on Natural Factors — But Blamed Record Warmth in 2000 on Man-Made Global Warming!
Given how badly global warming is faring in the minds of the public according to the last Washington Post/Stanford poll:
Global warming no longer Americans’ top environmental concern, poll finds
…it is clear they are desperate to sell any connection because the public will probably not hear about the science studies that will follow.
It is another shameful attempt to do just that by Dr. Kevin Trenberth aided by Seth Borenstein’s media bully pulpit. I will give Borenstein at least one credit though, he asked Dr. John Christy what he thought about it and printed it:
‘…history is full of such extremes, said John Christy at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. He’s a global warming skeptic who says, “The guilty party in my view is Mother Nature.”‘
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I would love for someone to publish a report about about our ‘coldwave’ that is ruining our ‘summer’ , in England our summers are very precious and the prolonged ( getting on three months ) coldwave is gobbling up the time we have left of getting half decent warmth , this is the fifth consequetive below normal summer and they are getting much worse …
REPLY: I think it would behoove us to be a lot more charitable to Real Climate, Skeptical Science and Open Mind. They are trying their best. All commenters should take notice. -REP
I would enjoy reading how you define “unsupported speculation” and “science.”
[REPLY: Actually, you probably wouldn’t. I don’t have the time to educate you and you probably can’t afford the tuition. -REP]
Jimbo, there were indeed millions killed during that conflict, most of them civilians. Millions more were killed by Stalin and the USSR in the years immediately following the war, too.
However, the Holocaust was an attempt to exterminate the Jews and there is a rabid-brand of antisemites who claim it never happened — the “Holocaust deniers.” One of the reasons the Nuremberg trials were carried out publicly was so that the truth could be documented.
You would also be correct if you pointed out that the Nazi extermination camps killed millions and the majority of them were not Jews. But I’m not aware that Hitler was trying to exterminate any other entire group of people like he was attempting with the Jews.
Ian says:
July 3, 2012 at 11:00 am
In the UK the period April to June has been the wettest and coldest on record. …..
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There have been several incidents of serious flooding in the UK over the past few years, including over the above 3 very rainy months. A few nights ago the UK Govt Environment Minister appeared on the gogglebox telling us that THIS is what we should expect more of, because of climate change.
Knowing of the 60 year cycle in climate, which may be linked to ocean oscillations, I looked up the situation 60-65 years ago. Sure enough, I found serious floods every year from 1947 to 1953 when I stopped looking. These can’t have been anything to do with CO2.
One of the areas where alarmists are successful in the climate change debate is in ensuring the public remain ignorant of historical context.
Follow the money, either book or grant or speaker fee
I have a post up on this also at Climate Etc
http://judithcurry.com/2012/07/03/what-global-warming-looks-like/
I was interviewed by Seth Borenstein, he did not use any of my quotes in the article; my response to SB’s questions are included in the Climate Etc. post
curryja says:
July 3, 2012 at 1:20 pm
I was interviewed by Seth Borenstein, he did not use any of my quotes in the article; my response to SB’s questions are included in the Climate Etc. post
Blast. I am glad to hear he interviewed you, but dismayed (though not surprised!) he “edited out” your views and your information from the broader picture he choose to paint for his audience and his superiors and and his (government-paid CAGW) present and future funding sources. From each similar editing decision, each sentence not printed and not shown on videotape or in a National Geographic presentation, each viewpoint deliberately removed from the public knowledge base, creates the “consensus” so desperately needed by the CAGW community.
Editing – like selectively picking data and trends and trees to avoid “bad data” – is a deliberate action. Not a “scientific” or “physics-based” real-world decision.
Geoff says:
July 3, 2012 at 10:27 am
“Edohiguma says:
July 3, 2012 at 9:31 am
I have seen several brush fires caused by incendiary shotgun shells. Airports use ‘bird-scarer’ cartridges which are usually 12 bore phosphorus shells that explode after around 200ft of travel. (Don’t use them in a shotgun with a choke !)
anthony holmes says on July 3, 2012 at 12:50 pm:
I would love for someone to publish a report about about our ‘coldwave’ that is ruining our ‘summer’ , in England our summers are very precious and the prolonged ( getting on three months ) coldwave is gobbling up the time we have left of getting half decent warmth , this is the fifth consequetive below normal summer and they are getting much worse …
Here in Metro Vancouver, we have had the coldest and rainest spring and early summer in over 30 years, Since the PDO went into a cool phase in 2000, it is only going to colder and stay cold for about next 20 years.
I can’t wait to see how Andy Weaver at UVic is going to explain this away.
Those of us that have been reading WUWT and other blogs for some time may remember the heated (sic 😉 ) debate over whether 1934 or 1998 were the ‘hottest year on record’.
This was against NASA (Hansen) claims that 1998 was the hottest year. When a mathematical error was discovered that made 1934 hotter this was waved off by the AGW proponents as not really an issue as it was only the USA that was warmer.
This has even been documented in Wikipedia:
Temperature records
According to journalist Christopher Booker, in 2007 WUWT readers, along with Stephen McIntyre, found that selected temperature records published by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) based on data from United States Historical Climate Network were in error, causing GISS to mistakenly label 1998 as the hottest year on record for the United States.[7] In August 2007, McIntyre alerted GISS to the problematic numbers, which GISS acknowledged and corrected. As a result, the hottest year on record for the United States was changed to 1934, rather than the 1998 it had been earlier.[8] In response, GISS stated that the temperature differences were slight and of little significance globally as the United States represents only a small fraction of the Earth’s surface.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watts_Up_With_That%3F
Note the final sentence I have emphasized!
So the response to Kevin Trenberth should be “the temperature differences were slight and of little significance globally as the United States represents only a small fraction of the Earth’s surface.”
These people want it both ways
The target shooting fire-starting theory looks good on a paper but on further analysis doesn’t hold up. I’ve taken the data from these fires, chucked out most of it, adjusted the rest, threw in a few tree rings and ice cores for flavor, and ran it through my Moldeltron 6000. The results are astonishing. There appears to be a direct correlation between the increase in the number of these fires and the increased number of wind and solar farms.
My analysis (Sigma 7 BTW) suggests that birds are flying into these windmills, falling onto solar panels and bursting into flames — igniting the surrounding brush. I might add that June 9, 2012 broke the all time record for birds flying into windmills and starting fires on this date in this state.
Kevin Trenberth is as blatant a liar as Juia Gillard. He claimed his mate Phil Jones did not say that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming. Phil’s BBC interview proves Trenberth to be lying.
Direct quote from today’s robot broadcast from KHB60, Puget Sound Weather Radio (Washington State):
“… Snow accumulations of up to two inches above six thousand feet.”
JC said” you were interviewed”
You were used for propaganda,he used what he wanted and left out your answers that did not meet his expectations,Borenstein is no more a journalist, than i am a climate scientist, but at least i listen and read what a climate scientist is trying to tell me.The best you can call Borenstein is a science (FICTION) writer.
That JIMBO and the Holocaust comment is not me. It is another Jimbo, Mods please note.
[REPLY: Noted. That “other” “Jimbo” has been requested to adopt a different screen name. Uhh, there was another admontion as well…. -REP]
Why doesn’t someone in the media ask Kevin what happened to Al Gore’s, Hurricanes?
Fires can be started by bullets if they are tracer rounds. They have a blob of phosphorous in their tail and if the rounds ricochet away from the target they will ignite dry grass, gorse etc. I was Bn shooting team captain and have seen this happen on many occasions, in North Scotland and at Bisley. But probably not a problem this year…
Trenberth is a serial liar, a scoundrel, and incompetent scientist. Climategate and his actions (as per the above post) make this clear. It pisses me off that my tax dollars pay for his employment at NCAR.
You guys need to think outside the box on the target shooter – fire thing. Had that happen about 1/2 mile from the house just a couple of days ago (confirmed, as far as I know). Burned a couple hundred acres; about out now. True, lead on paper isn’t going to do anything, but if your muzzle is in the grass or you are shooting at things that can rub together and cause sparks (think fridges and other crap) it can easily cause a fire. In addition, I worked fires on a military installation for several years — about 400 starts per year, not all caused by incendiaries or other fun stuff like that. Target shooting fires can and do happen under the right conditions — seen it. …and conditions are very right in the West right now.
I will chime in to the chorus commenting on Bill D’s useful statistics of temperature records. Here in Kansas, most high temperature records were set in the 1930s; 1934 and 1936 to be precise. None, count them, none, have been set this spring and summer. We did however, set a low temperature record the last week in June. Lowest by 3-4 degrees if I recall correctly. I think we may have set one high temp record back in January or so. I think looking at those statistics can be useful–not conclusive of anything, but useful.
Can you export some of this American heat & dryness, it’s cold & wet here in the UK!
All the talk by Trenberth about the ratio of hot to cold records are meaningless apples-to-oranges comparisons, compounded by the data base of historical information being used in the comparisons.
Every station [ASOS and COOP] in NCAR’s database has a period of record that is site-specific, and not necessarily the same as the time that temperatures and precipitation has been measured for the site. In particular, there appears to be a dearth of sites with PORs that extend back to include the 1930s. Those of you keeping track of warming and cooling trends recognize the 30s as a period that formerly was considered the warmest period of the last 100-150 years… at least until Hansen’s spatial and temporal “corrections” normalized the data. Still, the temperature extremes that were recorded then lived on in the databases, so long as the POR of a station extended back that far.
Consider, for example, Pittsburgh PA, where “official” temperature data has been recorded, at one location or another, going back to 1871. Yet when you examine the latest Local Climatological Data Annual Summary [for 2011], the POR for this site for extreme maximum and minimum daily temperatures is only 59 years, or since 1952. The all-time maximum daily temperatures in the LCD as reported for July, Aug, and Sept are 103, 100, and 97 degrees, respectively, from 1988, 1988, and 1954. However, if you go to the Pittsburgh NWS website, you will find that the three day stretch of August 4-6, 1918 reported maxima of 101, 103, and 101 degrees, respectively. Temperature in excess of 97 degrees occurred five times in September, prior to the 1954 “record”, and reached 102 in 1881. In fact, only two of the current LCD reported extreme highs, for November and December, were not exceeded in prior years in Pittsburgh.
Furthermore, the “official” database now includes data from hundreds of Cooperative observer sites, many of which have relatively short periods of record. Stations that were not in operation during the hot, dry Dust Bowl years of the 1930s are not going to have the high temperature extremes of that era, but they will most likely have the cold, dry winters of the 70s establishing the norm for minimum temperature records. In exact opposite results to the hot records, all but two months of the extreme lows, for February and April, are the observed minima for the entire 140 year POR in Pittsburgh.
When the comparison extremes are more likely to appear in the period of record for cold temperatures, but not for warm extremes, normal climatic variability will produce more new warm records than cold records. When the POR of the stations are shortened by NOAA in making these comparisons, it makes the hot vs cold ratio meaningless, both as observed and as forecast from the flawed climate models used by the warmists.
Jimbo says:
July 3, 2012 at 10:51 am
Something that they always seem to forget about is the 55 million people who were killed in WWII who were not Jews. The Jews make up only about 10% of those who were killed in WWII. We never hear about the other 90%.
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The problem is that 6 million Jews were not just killed, they were murdered simply because they were Jews, that makes the difference.
To paraphrase one of the greatest lines ever: “Facts, we don’t need no stinkin’ facts.”
Check out the dates for these individual state record high temperatures.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0001416.html