From the CORDIS News service: Predicting hot days in Europe
‘Red sky at night, shepherd’s delight, red sky in morning, fisherman’s warning.’ This saying is one of Europe’s earliest rhymes that were used to predict weather for the following day. With advances in modern technology, from radar to satellite imagery, we can now predict weather well beyond the following day. European scientists have gone one step further, however, by predicting weather, not just days and weeks in advance, but a whole season ahead. Seasonal prediction can help us prepare against adverse weather conditions in the areas of agriculture, health and other industries. The findings were published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Seasonal predictions are the next hurdle faced by meteorologists but they remain a significant scientific challenge due to flow instability and nonlinearity, which occurs mostly in the mid-latitudes. In this latest study, researchers focused on whether preceding seasons rainfall allow scientists to predict the frequency of forthcoming summer hot days and physical causes of such a predictability.
Led by the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE) and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich), researchers in France and Switzerland observed that summer heat in Europe rarely develops after rainy winter and spring seasons over southern Europe. But they discovered that dry seasons are either followed by hot or cold summers. What this means is that the predictability of summer heat is asymmetric and that climate projections indicate a drying of southern Europe. The results suggest that the asymmetry that exists should create a favourable situation for the development of more summer heat waves with a modified seasonal predictability from winter and spring rainfall.
The researchers noted that over the past decade Europe saw a number of exceptional summer heat waves with important impacts on society. The 2003 heat wave was the hottest summer on record since 1540 and led to a major health crisis and crop shortfall. Meteorologists were stunned when the record was shattered by the 2010 heat wave just a few years later. Maximum temperature measurements averaged over 7 days exceeding the average for this figure from 1871-2010 by 13.3 degrees Celsius. According to the researchers, extreme summers such as these could be considered as prototypes of summers of future warmer climate. But our ability to anticipate such events one or several months in advance, thereby giving us the chance to prepare ourselves, remains poor.
The team analysed precipitation and temperature observations made in 200 European meteorological stations over a period of time stretching more than 60 years. From this they made some generalisations for the region of southeastern Europe, including that rainy winters and springs inhibit the development of hot summer days for the following summer season, while dry or normal rainfalls allow either a large or a weak number of hot temperature days.
After dry months, a strong solar energy, associated with anticyclonic conditions, is transferred to the atmosphere through heat fluxes, amplifying drought and heat with a positive feedback. After rainy months, solar energy is largely used for evapo-transpiration instead, limiting the amplification of heat. Even after very dry winter and spring seasons, early summer heavy precipitations can annihilate the potential to develop extreme temperatures, which may have been the case during the 2011 summer, which followed an exceptional spring drought.
For more information, please visit:
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE):
h/t to Dr. Leif Svalgaard
“European scientists have gone one step further, however, by predicting weather, not just days and weeks in advance, but a whole season ahead.”
Bwahahah. Ugh. My aching European ribs.
Start by predicting the ever changing path of the jetstream, then come back and start justifying how one will be able to predict the weather and climate in Europe..
So basically they are saying : if it rains, it wont be as hot…..
These guys are geniuses !!! Who would ever have thought that rain could reduce heat !!
Met Office 3-month Outlook Period: April – June 2012 Issue date: 23.03.12
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION: The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period. The probability that UK precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 197-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf
However, the UK Environment Agency has confirmed that the period from April to June had been the wettest since records began
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2166935/You-know-month-course-wettest-coldest-June-hiding-SINK-best-way-stay-dry.html#ixzz1zMlDZbc6
‘We can now predict weather well beyond the next day’????
Really?
Apart from the UK Met. Office 3 month forecast for April, May, June being completely wrong and 180degrees away from the reality I suppose that statement could be true.
I notice that the 2003 heatwave was basically confined to France.
>the 2010 heat wave
Depends where you went looking for one, and what you choose to ignore, I suppose.
I remember summer 2003 being hot, peaking in the mid-30s Celsius in August; but here in the UK, summer 2010 was that non-materialising barbecue summer, cool and wet.
Let’s dismiss what I’m saying as anecdotal and memory-based, for it is; but I was there in southwestern Iberia (and still am) and got several days with temps above 45 C, upto 49 C. Considering the graph above (all is blue in this corner of the woods), the average must be somewhat inflated around here, which I wouldn’t find unusual given the penchant of our local meteo services. Since 2001 I haven’t recorded a single temp above 42 C but during the 2003 heat wave, though.
This June in the UK is warming up to be the wettest on record…global cooling has begun in ernest.
“…the hottest summer on record since 1540…”
Now, where did I put that 1548 central European parchment of temperature readings…?
I don’t mean to be overly cynical, but this reads like “the weather is unpredictable [who knew?] therefore it could be worse than we thought”.
[T]hey discovered that dry seasons are either followed by hot or cold summers.
These guys should be meteorologists, with forecasting skills like that. Oh wait…
What this means is that the predictability of summer heat is asymmetric and that climate projections indicate a drying of southern Europe.
I don’t get how the one follows the other. And there’s that word “projection” again. The word they use when they want us to think it’s a “prediction” when it really isn’t.
But our ability to anticipate such events one or several months in advance, thereby giving us the chance to prepare ourselves, remains poor.
Brilliant findings, and money well spent. We should throw more at it. /sarc
they discovered that dry seasons are either followed by hot or cold summers.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I think I can make forecasts as good as that.
Didn’t the UK Met Office have some experience with seasonal forecasting?
I was in France for 9 days near the end of April. There were 2 distinct weather patterns on either side of a line splitting the country east-west, with Paris to the west and Lyon to the east.
The western (Atlantic) side received bands of rain and sunshine, from the ocean, several times a day with temperatures up to 12 degrees C and less. The eastern, inland side had sunny days of up to 20 degrees C. No surprise, England was getting similar weather to Atlantic France. It seemed to me that what was happening “out there” in the Atlantic, was more important than any previous succession of weathers on land.
Well it seems like apple growers in the UK had the wrong forcast or didn’t check.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/9367588/Orchard-owners-warn-of-apple-ocalypse.html
I guess this was just the weather and not the climate. /sarc
“European scientists have gone one step further, however, by predicting weather, not just days and weeks in advance, but a whole season ahead.”
And how well are they doing? In March this year the UK Met Office predicted worstening drought in the UK for April, May and June: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf
And what was the result? The wettest April, May and June since records began in the 18th century. And these are the same models that forecast CAGW in 50 years time!
une vague de chaleur en Europe en 2010 ? Ou ? pas en Bretagne, c’est sure!
Europe’s temperatures are controlled by the strength of the Icelandic Low pressure system. In the summer this low moves from southwest of Greenland to the north-east of Iceland into the Nordic Seas, following the thermo-haline circulation’s down-welling. Its location governs the movements of the Artic jet stream, bringing more or less cloudiness over North or South of Europe.
Change in the intensity of the Icelandic Low together with the North Pacific’s Aleutian Low is reason for the N. Hemisphere’s temperatures oscillations.
I’ve made an attempt (with only a partial success) to reconstruct the Northern Hemisphere’s temperatures and N. Atlantic SST (the AMO) from the natural oscillations.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GSC1.htm
Note: these are only de-trended data, the up trend since 1880 is intentionally left out at this stage of the data analysis.
R Barker @ur momisugly 4:20 am
“Didn’t the UK Met Office have some experience with seasonal forecasting?”
Yes, but they rarely got it correct.
Interesting….as the thermometer was not invented in the sixteenth century and not standardized until Fahrenheit in 1714.
http://inventors.about.com/od/tstartinventions/a/History-of-the-Thermometer.htm
Hey mister, need some Faux History to cover all that Faux Science ?
“Red sky in the morning, sailor take warning. Red sky at night, sailor’s delight!” Red sunsets are an omen for smooth air and great visibility making for great flying weather. Having said that, what happens next week, weatherwise, is anybody’s guess! Bawhahahahaha!!!
Vukcevic and Son of Mulder say……
Exactly. As a resident if south east Spain I have extensive experience of the weather here for more than 13years.
Our weather is dominated by the Icelandic low/Azore high pressure sytems as noted by NC state university…..
“The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a periodic variation in the strengths and positions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The Icelandic Low is a semi-permanent low pressure area sitting close to Iceland, while the Azores (Bermuda) High is a semi-permanent high near the Azores. The Icelandic Low and Azores High fluctuate in strength and position over a period of months and years, and their variations can have an effect on weather in the eastern United States by shifting the location of the jet stream which affects temperature and precipitation patterns over the southeastern United States. The fluctuations vary in their duration and strength from one swing to the next, which makes them difficult to use in detailed climate predictions.”
This year the jet stream is much further south and has given the UK a very wet few months and our weather has been coller/wetter than usual – with the exception of two days this week when we had a sirocco and temps went up to 40C.
So, predict for me the NAO in position, strength and duration and I will give you the weather for next year. Simple.
I am in north central Iberia and the temperature is 17º celsius right now (3:00 pm) Passers-by are wearing sweaters. Yesterday was 35º, though.
Massive heatwave in Australia
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp7.html
Actually I’d be quite happy if the UK Met Office could predict tomorrows weather accurately. Be a nice change.
I love the statement that “dry seasons are either followed by hot summers or cold summers.” That really nails it down. Don’t they realize how utterly ridiculous that sounds. They should just sit back and wait for their Nobel Prizes in science to be announced. Good grief!