Well, I warned everybody yesterday. That briefing was put together by Climate Nexus, an advocacy and communications group. An accompanying report on heat waves and climate change was released simultaneously at climatecommunication.org
The usual suspects put that document together. See below.
Expert Reviewers:
- Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research
- Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
- Jeff Masters, Weather Underground
- Richard Somerville, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego
Now with a telephone press conference, Climate Nexus seer Michael Oppenheimer says he knows “what global warming looks like”, and it apparently is a hazy yellow-orange.
“It looks like heat, it looks like fires, it looks like this kind of environmental disaster… this provides vivid images of what we can expect to see more of in the future.”
In Colorado, wildfires that have raged for weeks have killed four people, displaced thousands and destroyed hundreds of homes.
Because winter snowpack was lighter than usual and melted sooner, fire season started earlier in the US, with wildfires out of control in Colorado, Montana and Utah.
The high temperatures that are helping drive these fires are consistent with projections by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which said this kind of extreme heat, with little cooling overnight, is one kind of damaging impact of global warming.
Others include more severe storms, floods and droughts, Oppenheimer said.
The stage was set for these fires when winter snowpack was lighter than usual, said Steven Running, a forest ecologist at the University of Montana.
Full article here h/t to reader Alwyn Poole.
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I wonder, did global warming look like this same yellow-orange hazy hellfire back in 1988 before Jim Hansen turned it into a cause?
Above – The Fires at Yellowstone National Park, 1988 when CO2 was at the “safe level” of approximately 350 parts per million according to Dr. James Hansen in this non peer reviewed declaration. Image from yellowstonecountry.org
The NPS talks about fire history of the region in the context on 1988:
Such wildfires occurred across much of the ecosystem in the 1700s. But that, of course, was prior to the arrival of European explorers, to the designation of the park, and the pattern established by its early caretakers to battle all blazes in the belief that fire suppression was good stewardship. Throughout much of the 20th century, park managers and visitors alike have continued to view fire as a destructive force, one to be mastered, or at least tempered to a tamer, more controlled entity. By the 1940s, ecologists recognized that fire was a primary agent of change in many ecosystems, including the arid mountainous western United States. In the 1950s and 1960s, national parks and forests began to experiment with controlled burns, and by the 1970s Yellowstone and other parks had instituted a natural fire management plan to allow the process of lightning-caused fire to continue influencing wildland succession.
We are living in the age of crazy.
UPDATE: Here is some important data to counter these crazy claims. From SOS Forests who writes:
The founder and purveyor of Watts Up With That, the premier climate realist website and blog (twice the winner of the Best Science Blog), the estimable Anthony Watts, has posted some of our fire graphs [here].
But they are outdated (my fault). Here are the latest:
Data are from the National Interagency Fire Center.
There are some evident trends.
1. Total acres burned has increased from the 1960’s to this Century, from an average of 4.6 million acres per year to 6.8 million acres per year.
2. Average acres per fire has also increased, from a low in the 1970’s of 21 acres per fire to 83 acres per fire in this Century.
3. Number of fires per year has decreased from a high (1975-1984) of nearly 190,000 fires per year to 83,000 fires per year this Century.
Fewer but larger fires this Century, and more acres burned in total.
To me this suggests a legacy of poor fuel management rather than “global warming”.
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Larry Ledwick (hotrod) says: June 29, 2012 at 8:10 am
Lightning – that will be why the FBI has started investigating then – http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/06/28/displaced-colo-residents-wait-as-fire-rages/
[…]
Could one or more fires be suspicious? Yes.
Is it responsible to flatly declare a conclusion before he investigation has even been done? NO.
Lets not get the cart before the horse.
Larry
Exactly Larry. We’ve have had twelve fires in Colorado this year according to InciWeb. Five were lightening caused. Three are ‘Human-under investigation’, one is ‘Human-inconclusive’, one is ‘Human’, one was prescribed burn by the Forest Service that got out of control, and the Waldo fire is ‘under investigation. I would have expected the human interaction to be less, but then there are more people here than 40 years ago, when I first gained a sense of Colorado. Also, I escaped the front range twenty years ago, and try to ignore the staggering growth that has since occurred there.
@ur momisugly Tadchem
“fire season started earlier in the US, with wildfires out of control in Colorado, Montana and Utah”
You missed the most important indicator in that phrase that something isn’t right… the word EARLIER. Just like the Tornado season started EARLIER or Tropical Storm Debbie which claimed the earliest 4th storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season (previously was July 7th). If you move across the Atlantic and you’ll find similar story. It is logical result of adding heat to the Earth climate system.
Since you did not use the /sarc tag I guess you are making the very misinformed assumption that “thunderstorm” only refers to clouds that go boom in the distance and little lightning hits the ground.
Out here when we talk about thunderstorms it is an all inclusive term which includes lots of cloud to ground discharges. Each storm is a bit different some have more than others. The storms we have had the last few days produced considerable numbers of direct cloud to ground stikes.
In this part of the country a good healthy thunderstorm can have dozens of cloud to ground strikes per square mile. The really energetic ones put out quite a light show. As a storm watcher you get an front row seat to these light shows, and I have witnessed many cloud to ground strikes within my circle of view in just a matter of minutes. Direct strikes to power poles, strikes to trees and in one case a strike to a huddle of cattle which killed about 6 of them across the road from where we were sitting.
These are not storms that just make distant booming noises, but constant displays of cloud to ground strikes typically one every 15 – 60 seconds at the height of the storm.
Larry
Steve Keohane says:
June 29, 2012 at 5:42 am
Paul Coppin says: June 29, 2012 at 3:58 am
It is important, very important, to understand that the Colorado fires are arson, not “climate change”.- up to two new fires a day for the past week.
I don’t think so. The High Park Fire was lightening caused. There are a total of ten active fires in Colorado. You can check out all the fires here:
http://inciweb.org/state/6/
The observation came directly from a Colorado Springs town councillor in a video interview. I’ll leave to the local gendarmes to verify the accuracy of it….
From Larry Ledwick (hotrod) on June 29, 2012 at 12:10 pm:
I had guessed that given how long I’ve been commenting here, as well as the other wonderful content of that comment, you’d know that “sarc” is my default setting and was clearly evident there. Guess we were both wrong.
My mentioning “thunderstorms” and the different lightning was in the same vein as my complaining about the phrase “thunderstrike”. It’s the lightning that does damage, not the sound!
Or a logical result of the current meandering of the jet stream. And that “similar story” across the Atlantic? Which planet? This year the past winter and the current summer are both colder than normal in Europe. Also explained by a shift in the jet stream.
The photograph kind of looks like what I imagine the atmosphere would like, if I was a Predator wearing a heads up display (HUD) that provided vision in the thermal infrared region of the EM spectrum.
That idea is built on the likely range of ir radiation in the air when CO2 is present. That range might even be a lot less with water vapour taken into account.
I reckon if you guys could actually see in the thermal ir part of the EM spectrum there would be a lot less of the “trace gas” chant and a lot more laughter.
Jack Barnes said:
This process revitalized the forest, allowing sunlight to reach the ground, and start a new geration of trees. You do realize that some trees only reproduce after a fire?
“…The most common form of serotiny is pyriscence, in which a resin binds the cones cones shut until melted by a forest fire…” Wiki – Pine
The forests of North America, specifically the western US, was made up of large numbers of different types of trees. The world has never naturally built a forest of dense pack plantation trees of all the same age. The fire can easily and quickly get up into the Crown. From there the fire, pushed by winds, races through these forests killing all plant life.
The fires of today, are catastrophic to the forest, compared to the old fires that ran hundreds of miles, but only burned the last few years worth of seedlings. So, Yes, I stand by my statement. Fires of today are much worse then before, because of Man Kinds actions. Those actions were driven by people like yourself who didnt understand the ecology they were adjusting.
——————————————————–
Jack, I am Australian, and massive fires and species that need fire to reproduce are in my DNA.
I cannot comment on the composition of US forests, but your statement that “The world has never naturally built a forest of dense pack plantation trees of all the same age” is simply untrue. The great eucalypt forests of Australia can be exactly like that, having all grown up since the last apocalyptic fire which left nothing but ash for hundreds of square miles. All the trees are the same age, and as they get bigger, being eucalypts, they kill almost everything else that grows around them. There is nothing unnatural about it. Human intervention is irrelevant, because it cannot prevent the mega-fires (started by lightning strikes in remote mountain areas) that have been happening here for thousands of years.
I do understand the ecology, and am certainly not claiming to be able to adjust it.
I have met people that have never seen a major lightning storm in their lives and are dumbfounded by the intensity of a strong thunderstorm. It all depends on where you have lived all your life.
Your right I misread your comment but frankly I do not put much energy into trying keep track of who posts in what style, given the number of people who regularly participate here with only a handful of exceptions I don’t try to cubby hole people into various classifications.
Seems every time I do that I find out that someone I agree with strongly in most things will sometimes come in completely from left field (from my point of view) and strongly disagree on some issue I think is not of much consequence.
Add the fact that many times the post is made while trying to do 3 other things sometimes leads to mistranslations of this sort.
Larry
@LazyTeenager on June 29, 2012 at 4:49 pm:
Wow, man, that’s deep. Whoa. Hey man, I don’t want to harsh your mellow, but you got some seriously strong shiite there. Don’t hog the bowl, man, pass it around so someone else can see all them groovy colors. Wow man, thinking you is seeing stuff like an alien would, that’s just… really deep, man. C’mon, share the love man!
johanna says: “…Human intervention is irrelevant, because it cannot prevent the mega-fires (started by lightning strikes in remote mountain areas) that have been happening here for thousands of years…”
If you are saying Australia, I have no comments. I have never been there. If you are talking about the Western US, which I believe this whole exchange is about, and the article was about. Then I again completely disagree with your comments. You keep taking the basis of the article above and twisting it to Australia.
Johanna, I used the word “Plantation” that was to designate that the forests are artificially planted by humans in this way. You didn’t like me using the word “Mother Nature”, You don’t like saying “The World” when discussing a man constructed forest. How do you want me to say this? Denying reality isn’t going to work. Like a fire, reality is reality.
The forests of the Western US are actively managed for fire. We use smoke jumpers to sky dive into them. They are backed up by grunts like myself who catch Helo Flights into the back country. We are backed up by “bombers”. If roads are nearby, fire engines are deployed and we run water hoses as far as a mile.
I can guaranty that Man Kind does stop these fires quickly and before they get a chance to burn off the “duff”. The forest bed is a dense pack of fuel. Again, your statement that man kind does not affect the forest make up is categorically false in the US.
If you are referring to Australia, I can only say you might want borrow our Firefighters more, I know that Australia regularly borrows our bombers… We are good at this stuff.
Jack Barnes said:
The world has never naturally built a forest of dense pack plantation trees of all the same age.
and then he said:
I used the word “Plantation” that was to designate that the forests are artificially planted by humans in this way.
——————————————————————-
So, which is it? I never claimed that humans could not create a forest of same age trees, but you wrongly claimed that a forest of same aged trees has never been naturally built. I never claimed to be speaking for US forests, but was simply refuting your statement about ‘the world’.
Oh, and the snark about firefighting abilities was really uncalled for, not to mention inaccurate. You Masters of the Firefighting Universe seem to have your work cut out for you just now. When you geniuses have some spare time, you can come and put out a lightning strike fire in the middle of thousands of square miles of uninhabited eucalypt forest in a rugged mountain range, and maybe show us hayseeds how it should be done. After you’ve put out your own, that is, and prevented all future occurrences. How about next Tuesday?
johanna says: Oh, and the snark about firefighting abilities was really uncalled for, not to mention inaccurate.
My crew was contacted about relocating to Australia in our winter downtime, to help fight your fires because our bombers were already deployed and you needed more professionals. My snark was based on facts. Sorry to have upset you. Again.
Also, I apologize, I don’t consider the weed you are referring too, to be a real forest in the context of Suger Pines, Redwoods, Douglas Fir. Ie Big Timber.
Jack
By the way, nice spin out. I never claimed to be any of the things you accused the hard working firefighters of being. Interesting reply.
According to NCDC, the trend of Spring rainfall in Colorado is unchanged since 1950. Although this year it was low, it was still only 4th lowest in that time. Equally the same applies to winter precipitation.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/co.html
.
TomB says:
June 29, 2012 at 9:52 am
Now that would be an interesting conversation.
“Honey? What the hell is all that noise?”
“Come here, dear. You need to see this. I think we’re gonna have to refill the pool!”
Judging by the looks we got, I think that was their first reaction.
Second trip, they waved…
LazyTeenager says:
June 29, 2012 at 4:49 pm
The photograph kind of looks like what I imagine the atmosphere would like, if I was a Predator wearing a heads up display (HUD) that provided vision in the thermal infrared region of the EM spectrum.
That idea is built on the likely range of ir radiation in the air when CO2 is present. That range might even be a lot less with water vapour taken into account.
Except for the color, that’s what an IR image looks like when there *is* a lot of water vapor in the air — IR imagery is typically black-hot (blackimage on white background) or white-hot (white image on black background), depending on the polarity you opt for. Ambient temperature per se has absolutely no effect on image quality. Water vapor affects the imagery because it scatters the heat being produced by the target.
I reckon if you guys could actually see in the thermal ir part of the EM spectrum there would be a lot less of the “trace gas” chant and a lot more laughter.
I’ve been using NVGs/NVDs (which “see” quite nicely into the near-IR portion of the spectrum, thank you) and thermal imagery targeting systems for longer than you’ve been alive — the only laughter you’re hearing is mine, because your statement was ludicrous.
Here on the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe, we have excellent and ongoing fuels management efforts. On the California side, where money is in short supply, it’s not done to the same extent. Result: California communities are far more vulnerable to large fires.
If you want to understand why these fires become so large, look no further than the amount of work done on forests in the years prior to the fire.
@D. J. Hawkins
…and didn’t you know that the Jet stream has lost strength because of global warming?
http://www.sciencepoles.org/articles/article_detail/jiping_liu_linking_arctic_sea_ice_decline_to_cold_and_snowy_winters/
Here Mr Liu speaks of winter but the same pattern applies all year around and with heat. As the Jet stream gets weaker more pockets of cold air move down towards the equator (and warm air northward).
It is weaker because the difference in temperature that gave strengh to the Jet has decreased. Because Arctic temperatures are way above what they should be thanks to GW.
****
Larry Ledwick (hotrod) says:
June 29, 2012 at 6:35 pm
I have met people that have never seen a major lightning storm in their lives and are dumbfounded by the intensity of a strong thunderstorm.
****
Last nite there was a Tstorm complex in western MD that must have produced thousands of lightning strikes in an hour, most of them cloud/ground strikes. If that had occurred in dry western mountainous forests…
Precip from the 6/29 Tstorm:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Precipitation/Daily.aspx?region=shd
****
Larry Ledwick (hotrod) says:
June 29, 2012 at 12:10 pm
These are not storms that just make distant booming noises, but constant displays of cloud to ground strikes typically one every 15 – 60 seconds at the height of the storm.
****
Larry, the Tstorm last nite here was producing a lightning strike about once every half second at its height. I was blinded & cringing watching it. Power went out for 12 hrs.
Larry
PezdePlata says:
June 30, 2012 at 9:11 am
Because Arctic temperatures are way above what they should be thanks to GW.
Arctic temperatures are cyclical. What do *you* think they should be at this particular point in their cycle?
beng says:
June 30, 2012 at 10:52 am
Larry, the Tstorm last nite here was producing a lightning strike about once every half second at its height. I was blinded & cringing watching it. Power went out for 12 hrs.
One of our AH-1s took a lightning hit while it was parked on our ramp at KTTN. The outer edge of the nearest cell was twenty *miles* away…
In the west, when it gets colder, we get drier. The 1970s were very cold ( it snowed in the Central Valley) and very heavy drought ( I learned to ski then on nearly bare slopes and with straw on the bare parts.).
When we get drier, we get more fires.
Big fires are not new, either.
http://www.californiachaparral.com/cforestfires.html
It is a whole lot more related to fuel management than anything else. THEN normal weather cycles. THEN humans in the forest and accidentally setting fires ( or deliberately – even by authorities doing “forest management” that gets out of control).
@EM SMITH
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Fire_of_1910
I picked a random fire from your list, did a search and found what I expected, …the fire happened in August. I’m sure if you check the others you’ll find a decent 95% happened in the months of August, September and October. If I recall well from similar list elsewhere there are a couple of odd ones in April and February and one was caused by Native Americans as this helped the buffalo.
Anyway, it is interesting to read in the wikipedia link above that:
“The fire season started early that year, because the summer of 1910 was hot and dry like no other”
If in 1910 a fire season in August was early, what does that say about the season starting in June like it has done of recent years? We are also seeing plenty of Tundra fires because of the cryosphere’s area reduction. The snow cover retreats at least 1 week earlier at best, 2 at worst in areas. That is a lot of more heat added to an already snow cleared ground
Our emission have, and continue to do so, warmed the cimate and the sooner you guys realise that the sooner we can get to do something about it. (and no, I don’t support Carbon Tax as a solution)
@Bill Tuttle
That will depend on the ‘cycle’ you compare it with… 1, 10, 100, 1000,10000,100,000 years ago?
The speed in which the warming is occurring can’t be explained by natural variation alone. Solar output is low, volcanic activity is low, no asteroid impacts, Enso neutral, and so on. It is happening too fast for the Milankovitch cycle to explain it.
Here’s what we know:
http://www.climate4you.com/Polar%20temperatures.htm
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/temperature_clouds.html