A quiet cue ball sun

Eric Simpson, early mention of CO2 causing temperature increases.
WUWT has had several articles on very early predictions and errors in those predictions.
I found an Encyclopedia Americana 1957 yearbook at a thrift store and in the section on meteorology there was an article written by H. E. Landsberg, Director of Climatology, US Weather Bureau that stated: “A recomputation of the inflared absorption of carbon dioxide helps substantiate the belief that changes in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere can bring about considerable temperature variations. For example, a doubling of the atmospheric content of CO2 would lead to a surface-temperature rise of 6.5 degrees F”. I was very surprised to see it mentioned in a 1957 book.

ClimateForAll says:
June 24, 2012 at 7:01 pm
It really is a shame to see sunspots so poorly counted.
It is very important that we count sunspots today the exact same way as two hundred years ago. Otherwise the historical record would be useless. So we go to great length and effort to make sure that we don’t count differently today.

Good Lord! Are you wackos trying to blame the sun for global warming?

When was the last solar grand minimum ? And what solar cycles were involved ?

Mike says:
June 24, 2012 at 7:42 pm
When was the last solar grand minimum ? And what solar cycles were involved ?
Depends on how you define grand minimum. With my definition [really low for a long time] the last grand minimum was 1640-1710, and cycles were not numbered back then [one could give them negative numbers if one cared]

Having read through some of the comments, its good to see a light discussion on geomagnetism.
Also good to see Leif hasn’t given up entirely on WUWT.
Several things have become evident regarding cosmology.
First.) IBEX discovered over a year ago a band of energy stretching around the heliosphere.
It was undoubtedly thrilling to discover at the time this new ‘thing’ in the heliosphere, but without further studies, its implications may never be known.
Second.) the IBEX mission discovered just a few months ago, or at the very least announces, that there is no bow shock beyond the heliosphere.
I have my doubts that the bow shock just doesn’t exist. it just may be that it fails to appear in its current state. I imagine that we could have more intruments paying closer detail, we would find a bow shock does exsist, but that certain elements have reduced its form, capacity and strength to a nominal state.
Third.) HESS has drawn conclusions that energy in the form of hard photons are discovered along the galactic plane.
For the lack of better understanding, cosmological evolution is in its infancy. If a few telescopes in Africa detect higher energy waves to the power of 10 above what was previously understood, we should give the science some latitude to investigate further.
Science may yet be able to determine the exact physical makeup of dark matter soon.
Four.) Direction, speed and intensity of geomagnetic polarity has to be effected by some other outside source other than the Earth’s core.
While some have speculated that the Sun may play a minor role, I doubt it. To presume that geomagnetism is uneffected by outside influneces would seem a fools errand.
In all recorded data recent magnetic movement, never has the path of MNP(magnetic North Pole) ever been so unnatural as it is now. For thousands of years, the MNP meandered and traveled very slowly and never in the same direction for very long.
In the last one hundred years, the path of MNP has been nearly flawless in one direction. The annual velocity nearly doubles every 14 years. It is unmistakably clear that some outside influence is at work, and only an extremely energetic source has that kind of attraction.
Based upon past evidence, current understanding and near future discoveries, we may learn much in the coming weeks, if not days.
Let me go on record that I postulate that our solar system has or is currently passing through a strong energetic field that has essentially pressed upon the heliosphere in such a way that the detection of the bow shock has made it undetectable. Previous science just doesn’t cease to exist because data can’t provide an answer. Scientists just can’t explain it.
Let me also go on record that I postulate that a very high energetic field, either from the galactic plane or from dark matter is directly involved in effecting the earths magnetic field.
Laugh and giggle all you want. I already know what most of you are thinking. Bear with my thought analysis for just bit longer.
Just as our moon has found a certain balance with the Earth, so may our solar system with the galaxy that it travels within.
All of the evidence I lightly present here and postulate on may very well be the beginning of a polar flip.
Not Armageddon.
If I read our current science right, the highly energetic galactic plane may take our solar system centuries to pass through. But if my calculations are correct, its already begun.
The Heliosphere has shrunk and has become deflated. Several thousand millenniums of rotation can do that- at certain intervals.(Such as it is at this time)
The Sun has entered a protracted state of lull. L&P figures suggest a complete nod in a few years. In addition, recent history suggests that this cycle may well have several maximums, like Lief commented. I imagine that after a century of compressed high solar cycles, the Sun needs to relax.
Having a large amount of gravitational pressure placed upon it, causing both a band of energy and compressing the layers of its outer boundaries placed upon it, the heliosphere is in a position to withstand the upcoming events.
As the Solar system continues on its path, we may certainly experience only what many will regard as a naked singularity event.
Then again, I only postulate.
Much like previous scientists did regarding bow shocks. Maybe I’ll become famous too, solely based on a hypothesis.
Who knew !

ClimateForAll says:
June 24, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Four.) Direction, speed and intensity of geomagnetic polarity has to be effected by some other outside source other than the Earth’s core.
The conductivity of the core is so high that for all intents and purposes it acts as a superconductor preventing any outside magnetic influence to penetrate more than a few hundred meters into the core. To say that something ‘has to’ influence is just wishful thinking.
never has the path of MNP(magnetic North Pole) ever been so unnatural as it is now.
Well, ‘never’ is a big word…More to the point is that what we observe at the surface bears little relation to the actual field in the core. The latter is 20 times stronger than at the surface and is very irregular, does not really have well-defined dipoles, but consists of many individual poles scattered over the surface. This is what it looks like: http://www.leif.org/research/Magn-Field-Core-Boundary.png and this is what the change from year to year looks like: http://www.leif.org/research/core-secular-change.png
Having a large amount of gravitational pressure placed upon it, causing both a band of energy and compressing the layers of its outer boundaries placed upon it, the heliosphere is in a position to withstand the upcoming events.
There is no gravitational ‘pressure’ placed on the heliosphere or the sun.
Maybe I’ll become famous too, solely based on a hypothesis.
We all like to discover something new and wonderful. It is just VERY hard to do, so be prepared for some sobering up.

Leif Svalgaard says:
June 24, 2012 at 9:03 pm
David says:
June 24, 2012 at 8:43 pm
Has the rush to the poles happened yet?
An alternative meaning to the question could be whether or not folks have started jogging, canoeing, driving, or skate boarding to the NP, or the N magnetic P, or to where the NMP was some time in the past. Maybe they got over that after freezing their butts and their booze during the last two years.

Thanks, Leif. 70 years Wow! That is grand. That would be more than 6 nominal solar cycles in that time period. Is that possible today ? Or are you expecting just a couple of weak cycles – 24,25 ? Or what ?

@Leif Svalgaard + mikelorrey
>>any EE can explain induction.
>But induction cannot proceed more a few times the skin-depth. Any EE knows that too.
It depends on the frequency. Basic EE’ing. That is one reason why chokes don’t have plates.
How can an induced magnetic field created externally be separated from one generated at the core if you can only measure the sum at the surface?
Perhaps an observed field reversal is necessary to add depth to the discussion (literally). They can take place in a very small number of days (according to research on SW USA lava flows). That is unlikely from a liquid core but I will await a real event before deciding.

@ur momisuglyMe
An interesting PDF from Leif, and yes, page 11 may well be the bottom line. The straight line extrapolation of the Livingston & Penn graph on page 9 works out at about 2025 (by eyeball), and similarly a straight line extrapolation of the lower graph on page 19 gives about the same date. Staying with that graph the current reluctance to cross the line is also seen in the late 1960s early 1970s. But this time, I think, there is a difference, and we can see that on page 16.
I fear we’re not looking at a 1970s cooling event here, it can now only go deeper and longer, (I hope not) though I think the Jury is still out as to whether we are looking at a repeat of the Dalton or Maunder. There was an interesting graph, (not fully fleshed out, based on tsi of all things, on Tallbloke’s blog), that hints at deeper than the Maunder.
Leif’s last line “what a Wonderful Time”, I would replace with “what an interesting time”, if one lives somewhere warm, otherwise “what a scary time” if one lives somewhere potentially cold, might be more appropriate.
@ur momisugly WiIliam Astley
The idea that geomagnetism is a significant player is attractive, but can you expound on what you said please in “It (is) this orbital parameter that explains why the interglacial periods are roughly 10,000 years long.”
@ur momisuglyClimateForAll & @ur momisuglyWilliam Astley
I find the ideas of external geomagnetic influence intriguing and currently feel that the sun may be the main local driver, but is not the only player, and must be influenced or even driven by external forces. Alternatively it may be that the Sun is not the cause here, but merely a visible beacon of larger solar system and or galactic effects.
@ur momisugly
We know that earthquakes can affect the motion of the entire planet, I think I read that last years Japanese earthquake had an effect on the wobble and or LOD that had been measured. We also know that earthquakes and volcanic activity increase during quiet solar periods, there is a graph of this somewhere, (Landscheidt, perhaps). It seems inevitable that the cause of all this is external to the Earth, and it seems reasonable that this could have a significant effect on the Earth’s presumed internal magnetic gyro, and that, crucially, the effect could lead to a relatively sudden step change in, for instance, obliquity, to produce the Younger Dryas, and the regular(ish) slide into glaciations, though the really sudden effect would seem to be the climb out of glaciations.
Recently on WUWT we have seen extensive and well argued cases for different causes of the Younger Dryas, but, neither succeeded in being entirely convincing. However, a shift in the internal magnetic gyro could well produce the required effect without running into any of the counter evidence that plagued Chilcot and Evan’s posts.
We have the evidence of a marked reduction in magnetic field strength, an increasingly mobile North pole(s), reduced sunspots, a restless planet etc.
Regardless of the causes of glaciations, the timing and pace of this inevitable event is of crucial importance to mankind and will determine the fate of most of this planets population. Beside this, public and political concern about co2 and global warming are misplaced and is suicidal mass sleepwalking in the wrong direction.
The Hypothesis that several of us are now considering is as follows;
The relatively sudden change in magnetic fields of the Sun and Earth that are being measured may be a viable mechanism to explain a similarly relatively sudden change in obliquity which would in its turn be a viable mechanism to explain significant climatic shifts or phase changes such as the Younger Dryas and the beginning and end of glaciations. In all probability combined with a significant change in solar input.

Today there is a SN of 24… 24 must be the new “blank”.