From the Alfred Wegener Institute:
North-East Passage soon free from ice again? Winter measurements show thin sea ice in the Laptev Sea, pointing to early and large scale summer melt
Bremerhaven, 8 June 2012, The North-East Passage, the sea route along the North coast of Russia, is expected to be free of ice early again this summer. The forecast was made by sea ice physicists of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association based on a series of measurement flights over the Laptev Sea, a marginal sea of the Arctic Ocean. Amongs experts the shelf sea is known as an “ice factory” of Arctic sea ice. At the end of last winter the researchers discovered large areas of thin ice not being thick enough to withstand the summer melt.
“These results were a great surprise to us“, says expedition member Dr. Thomas Krumpen. In previous measurements in the winter of 2007/2008 the ice in the same area had been up to one metre thicker. In his opinion these clear differences are primarily attributable to the wind: “It behaves differently from year to year. If, as last winter, the wind blows from the mainland to the sea, it pushes the pack ice from the Laptev Sea towards the North. Open water areas, so-called polynyas, develop in this way before the coast. Their surface water naturally cools very quickly at an air temperature of minus 40 degrees. New thin ice forms and is then immediately swept away again by the wind. In view of this cycle, differently sized areas of thin ice then develop on the Laptev Sea depending on wind strength and continuity“, explains Thomas Krumpen. (See info charts)
However, the expedition team was unaware of just how large these areas can actually become until they made the measurement flights in March and April of this year. In places the researchers flew over thin ice for around 400 kilometres. The “EM Bird”, the torpedo-shaped, electromagnetic ice thickness sensor of the Alfred Wegener Institute, was hung on a cable beneath the helicopter. It constantly recorded the thickness of the floating ice. “We now have a unique data set which we primarily want to use to check the measurements of the earth investigation satellite SMOS“, says Thomas Krumpen.
The abbreviation SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) is actually a satellite mission to determine the soil moisture of the mainland and salinity of the oceans. However, the satellite of the European Space Agency (ESA) can also be used to survey the Arctic sea ice. “The satellite can be used above all to detect thin ice areas, as we have seen them, from space“, explains Thomas Krumpen.
The SMOS satellite measurements from March and April of this year confirm that the thin ice areas discovered by the expedition team were no locally restricted phenomenon: “A large part of the North-East Passage was characterised by surprisingly thin ice at the end of the winter“, says Thomas Krumpen.
The new findings of the successful winter expedition give cause for concern to the scientists: “These huge new areas of thin ice will be the first to disappear when the ice melts in summer. And if the thin ice melts as quickly as we presume, the Laptev Sea and with it a part of the North-East Passage will be free from ice comparatively early this summer“, explains the sea ice physicist.
In the past the Laptev Sea was always covered with sea ice from October to the end of the following July and was navigable for a maximum of two summer months. In 2011 the ice had retracted so far by the third week of July that during the course of the summer 33 ships were able to navigate the Arctic waters of Russia for the first time. The North-East Passage is viewed by shipping companies to be a time and fuel saving alternative to the conventional Europe-Asia route. The connection from Rotterdam to Japanese Yokohama via the Nord-East Passage is some 3800 sea miles shorter than taking the Suez Canal and Indian Ocean route.
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General information on the SMOS satellites may be found on the ESA website at http://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEMB4L4AD1G_Germany_0.html and on the sea ice thickness measurements of the satellite at http://www.esa.int/esaLP/SEM361BX9WG_index_0.html
The Alfred Wegener Institute conducts research in the Arctic and Antarctic and in the high and mid-latitude oceans. The Institute coordinates German polar research and provides important infrastructure such as the research ice breaker Polarstern and research stations in the Arctic and Antarctic to the national and international scientific world. The Alfred Wegener Institute is one of the 18 research centres of the Helmholtz Association, the largest scientific organisation in Germany.
I liked the tone and tenor of the abstract. The Russians seem to practice science. Go get data, archive it, interpret it and publish.
Two thumbs up from me.
Steve Mosher and Eli Rabett;
It isn’t about wind and temperature!
It is about wind and temperature and humidity and precipitation and oceanic currents and debris fields and, and, and….
Whatever the reason(s), the rapid ice melt is way ahead of schedule and my prediction of 4.125 may be too high. For the record, I do not think the “alleged” Global Warming caused by CO2 has anything to do with it.
This caught my attention. The scientists never indicated and emotion, as far as I can see, in any of their comments, yet felt that they were ‘concerned’ about the trend.
The new findings of the successful winter expedition
give cause for concern to the scientists:
“These huge new areas of thin ice will be the first to disappear when the ice melts in summer. And if the thin ice melts as quickly as we presume, the Laptev Sea and with it a part of the North-East Passage will be free from ice comparatively early this summer“, explains the sea ice physicist.
The scientist(s) never says he(they) is(are) concerned. The reporter seems to assume he is concerned. Not based on the quotes. This type of nonsense has become a cancer. Concern to the scientists the reporter claims is because ice gets blown around the Arctic? I kinda doubt it. This is no real revelation. Wind can move ice.
I think the real benifit of this work is to give a comparison, and perhaps verification, to the satelite data.
One has to wonder, what is the concern expressed specifially? Scientifically speaking?
Just The Facts says:
June 13, 2012 at 5:24 pm
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Thanks for the comment. I have bookmarked it. Do not expect Mr Mosher to dialogue. He is a hit and run specialist, and certain he KNOWS, so he does not care to DISCUSS.
An ice free Arctic Ocean would open up a vast area of commerce between Europe, Asia and North America not previously available. It would open up huge areas of natural resources not previously available. Every country that borders the Arctic Ocean would see huge economic advantages.
Yet, the IPCC sees this as something to be feared. People not connected with the IPCC might actually make some serious money. Large areas opening up for settlement for the first time in 1000 years. What we are seeing is the next “New World”. The land of opportunity for those willing to take the risk.
Doug Proctor says:
June 13, 2012 at 4:51 pm
This was the route of the WWII Murmansk Run? Was the ’40s an unusual ice-free time?
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No. Murmansk is further West and apparently is normally ice free even in Winter. However, the Soviets started making Summer trips through the Northern Sea Route in 1934 and even sailed part of their Baltic Fleet through to the Far East in 1935. As far as I can tell the key to use of the Northern Sea Route was more the development of ships that could make the long trip without coaling stops than ice per se. What most of the discussion seems to be about is whether the ice clears completely and early enough to allow commercial vessels to confidently make the trip without an accompanying icebreaker to get them out of trouble if things go awry. My impression is that unlike the Northwest Passage, there are essentially no people along most of the Arctic shore of Asia. You get your freighter in trouble up there, and you are in real danger. see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Sea_Route
Been keeping track of ice area and extent with COI, IJIS, and Arctic-Roos. All 3 show area and extent nosediving. Looks like this summers melt will easily shatter the 2007 record minimum. Not good at all. And there is so very little multi-year ice left, the downward spiral will continue summer after summer after summer.
“The new findings of the successful winter expedition give cause for concern to the scientists: “These huge new areas of thin ice will be the first to disappear when the ice melts in summer. And if the thin ice melts as quickly as we presume, the Laptev Sea and with it a part of the North-East Passage will be free from ice comparatively early this summer“, explains the sea ice physicist.”
The expression of “concern” is strange in this context. First it’s the wind, then it helps shortening sea travel and has helped so for decades. No information what the “concern” is about.
Max Hugoson says: June 13, 2012 at 2:30 pm
OH great…I get to be FIRST UP! …
Been there, done that. Trust me, fame is fleeting.
This simply shows that the large surface coverage in the Arctic during March and April was a chimera, very thin, very susceptible to rapid melting.
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Yup. A lot of people don’t realize they are looking at little more than a ghost,,,nothing substantial.
I often refer to my old encyclopedia, the ‘Book of Knowledge’ by Waverley printed in the early 1950’s. It’s amazing how history gets written and re-written.
Looking up the ‘Arctic’ I read that the Russians established a trading route along the northern coast in the first half of the 20th century and established townships which grew flax and sugar beet which used this route to export.
I’m old enough to know from personal knowledge that this route closed down completely by the end of the 1950’s when ice returned with vengeance.
Looks like we may have come full circle and the Russians will be able to open again. Question is: for how long this time?
Fantastic! Now the crews of the TV show Deadliest Catch and fish in total safety!
Richard Carlson;
Looks like this summers melt will easily shatter the 2007 record minimum. Not good at all.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
1. The historical record shows that this has happened before and hence is natural.
2. What could possibly be wrong with less ice? Can you grow food on ice? Do fish thrive with ice covering the water? What?
OK, until someone makes any of these passages;
under sail, and without a map or a satellite phone/com.
I remain unimpressed, as to the theory of the Arctic being more benign.
Richard Carlson says:
June 13, 2012 at 6:46 pm
“Been keeping track of ice area and extent with COI, IJIS, and Arctic-Roos. All 3 show area and extent nosediving. Looks like this summers melt will easily shatter the 2007 record minimum. Not good at all. And there is so very little multi-year ice left, the downward spiral will continue summer after summer after summer.”
Say, what brand of crystal ball are you using? Does it have good predictability track records or is it one of those old cheap extrapolation models?
Richard Carlson:
Or is it one of those models that just follows the wind? I’ve tried those before and they just don’t work. I’d save your karma.
primarily attributable to the wind
Global temperatures certainly do NOT seem to be responsible. The May anomaly for RSS came out today at 0.233. With this anomaly, the average for the first five months of the year is (-0.058 -0.12 + 0.074 + 0.333 + 0.233)/5 = 0.0924. If the average stayed this way for the rest of the year, its ranking would be 16th. This compares with the anomaly in 2011 at 0.147 to rank it 12th for that year. (1998 was the warmest at 0.55.) As well, RSS show a slope of essentially 0 since November 1996 or 15 years, 7 months (goes to May).
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1995/plot/rss/from:1996.83/trend
P.S. There was a typo in the diagram: “Ocean Saliniy” should be “Ocean Salinity”.
Here’s a nearby town:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiksi
Quite interesting climate. All time max. temp ever in 1991 of 93°F, high avg. of +46°F in August. Snows 2/3 of the days throughout all of the winter months. Minimum avg. in winter of about -26°F December through March. Population high of 11,649 in ’89 but less than half now.
Seems a question is, did the higher population cause the peak in temperature in the early ‘90’s? Was it the large airport there?
Here’s some nearby scenic pictures:
http://www.lhnet.org/lena-delta/
Best to keep in mind that most Russian rivers flow north to exit into the Arctic Ocean and they do carry the exhaust heat from power plants and civilization far south with the flow. Wonder how much that might influences the ice thickness there? Takes only 2 watts per square meter there to raise the temperature one degree celsius in the winter.
Seems civilization has move into the Arctic in the last few decades! Tourism is blossoming.
They have been calling them the northeast passage and northwest passage for how long? Gee could that be because ships have sailed through there before?? Or do we get to reinvent that past too? And it seems to me anyone believing in AGW should revel in ice melt, afterall the melting and freezing takes energy.. maybe thats where all their missing heat has gone.. heheh. Meanwhile the icebreakers are busy saving stupid people, good for the economy and all that. /sarc off
Maybe global warming can fix that pesky tilt too. /oksarc really off
“Richard Carlson says: ”
Richard – have you looked at the Navy link (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil…) listed above.
1. The majority of the ice is at -2C temperature or less.
2. The western ice is above the historic average, only the eastern ice is below average (because of the winds).
3. All the old ice is on the Canadian side, the Russian ice is all newer thinner ice.
4. Over 1/2 of the ice appears to be 100% coverage. Less than 10% appears to be below 50% coverage.
The ice on the east and along Russia is going to melt But it isn’t clear with the wind patterns and the ice conditions how fast the remaining ice will melt.
The 2+ meter thick 100% coverage western ice is going to be tougher than the eastern ice that is currently melting.
In Khatanga, on the Laptev Sea, roughly in the middle of the Northern Sea Route, it is now 26 C, or 79 F. This is warmer than Paris is going to get today, or probably all week. You can see the current condition by click on stations on this map
Davidmhoffer~ What’s a ‘joshua halpern’? Is it anything important?
Latitude says:
June 13, 2012 at 3:49 pm
..Well, where did the wind blow it away too? Somewhere it ended up piled up and thicker……..
Sometimes, but sometimes it gets pushed out to sea in the Bering Strait and the wider passage between Greenland and Norway. This is what happened in 2007 (esp. Bering as Eli seems to recall, you could look it up), and did not happen as much in 2009-2011. Of course, it is not just the winds but the ocean currents that move the broken up ice, but the melt is needed to break the ice pack up, and the ice is melting places where it never has before.
Oh yes, one of the drivers of changes in wind pattern is human influences on the climate. A perfect storm.
The NE passage is frequently open every summer because there are few islands to block wind blown ice movement. Unlike the NW passage. Ice melts every year and it is solar input that dictates by how much. The MWP had very little if any ice during summer.