From Spaceweather.com
NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-class solar flares and a 20% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. Any eruptions are likely to be geoeffective because the source, sunspot AR1476, is directly facing our planet.
Yesterday, May 10th, amateur astronomer David Maidment of Sohar, Oman caught the active region in mid-flare during a strong M5-class eruption:
The blast, which almost crossed the threshold into X-territory, did not produce a significant coronal mass ejection (CME). “There seemed to be no CME due to the fact that the plasma was captured and dragged back down to the sun,” notes Maidment.
Here’s the latest SDO image:
And the closeup:
Keep a close watch on this graph for X-ray bursts:
Get X-flare alerts: text, phone.
Could be v-e-r-y interesting!
Hope my Interwebs connection doesn’t disappear.
duck
But… but… the sun has no influence on climate at all!
/sarc
What a great time for mankind to have instruments like SDO, and STEREO collecting data!
Are these spots of strong activity beneficial to the Earth and humanity?
There are indications that the Earth’s magnetic field secular change responds to the solar flares and CME’s after an impact of a geomagnetic storm.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Tromso.htm
How else to explain direct correlation between 400 years of solar activity and bi-decadal change in the Antarctic’s magnetic field?
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-dBzA1.htm
And finally is there a beneficial global temperature factor?
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LLa.htm
OMG!! It’s worse than we thought! The sun’s all hot and magnety! RUN! RUN FOR THE HILLS!
oh wait… that’s closer to the sun….
RUN! RUN FOR THE CAVES!
Has anyone noticed that Jo Anne Novas site has been down for quite a few days now i wonder if the freaks have not hacked her site. It would be highly unlikely for her to close down the site for maintenece for such a long period.
LOL pbittle
“Any eruptions are likely to be geoeffective because the source, sunspot AR1476, is directly facing our planet.”
This seems wrong. If you were to draw a cone from AR1476 and extend it to the radius of the Earth, it seems like it would directly face the Earth for only a few seconds before spinning past us. I must be doing something wrong here.
I wonder if here in Wisconsin we will get another “heatwave” like we did at the time of the March 8-10 solar storm.
March “Heat Wave” (May-like next 10 days; 70 by Wednesday?)
Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: March 12, 2012 – 10:27 AM
http://www.startribune.com/blogs/142248585.html
And here’s the solar storm as reported by NASA.
Solar Storm Dumps Gigawatts into Earth’s Upper Atmosphere
March 22, 2012: A recent flurry of eruptions on the sun did more than spark pretty auroras around the poles. NASA-funded researchers say the solar storms of March 8th through 10th dumped enough energy in Earth’s upper atmosphere to power every residence in New York City for two years.
“This was the biggest dose of heat we’ve received from a solar storm since 2005,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA Langley Research Center. “It was a big event, and shows how solar activity can directly affect our planet.”
..During the heating impulse, the thermosphere puffed up like a marshmallow held over a campfire,..
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/22mar_saber/
It’s a lot more complicated than that. By the time the plasma gets to us it’s several times larger than earth. It’s also effected by many other factors between the time it leaves and when it gets here. Unpredictable is the right word.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/scientists-trace-heat-wave-to-massive-star-at-cent,21088/
hee hee….
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
For your back link pocket 🙂
Did anything ever happen with H.R. 5026 ?
Roger says:
May 11, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Has anyone noticed that Jo Anne Novas site has been down for quite a few days now i wonder if the freaks have not hacked her site. It would be highly unlikely for her to close down the site for maintenece for such a long period.
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She said a week or so ago that she was about to make some major changes to the site, primarily to reduce bandwidth. Looks like it is taking a bit longer than expected.
STuartMcL says:
May 11, 2012 at 4:28 pm
Roger says:
May 11, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Has anyone noticed that Jo Anne Novas site has been down for quite a few days now i wonder if the freaks have not hacked her site. It would be highly unlikely for her to close down the site for maintenece for such a long period.
=====================================================================
She said a week or so ago that she was about to make some major changes to the site, primarily to reduce bandwidth. Looks like it is taking a bit longer than expected.
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I just went there and got through with no problem; looks like it’s back OK.
The weird thing is that a “Carrington-type event” would do wonders for our GHG emissions – none that is.
I’ll feel a tiny bit better when this spot points in a different direction.
I think everyone has this all screwed up. The only important thing for me and anyone else who qualifies as a universe center, is will I get any cool aura images out of it.
An M-5 class disruption? Was this verified by Dr. Daystrom?
Looks like the Sun has its own Hawaiian Island chain.
I’ve forgotten the name of the tale, but there’s a science fiction story (written before geosynchronous satellites?) in which the main character (and his lady friend?) notice late one evening that the moon is incredibly bright. One of them happens to be an amateur astronomer/skywatcher, and a half hour or so later when Mars rises, they notice that Mars is *also* far brighter than usual — almost as bright as Jupiter up near the sky’s zenith.
At that point they begin speculating on why. And then, an hour or two (?) later they realize that Jupiter seems to have brightened quite a bit as well. Soooo… they put two and two together and decide that the sun has gone somewhat nova and that probably everyone on the other side of the planet is now toasted and that they’ll be toasted as well once the sun rises. Well, they proceed to party away madly, convinced it is their last night on earth.
I read the story a long,long time ago and forget all the details, but I think that they begin getting hit by a downpour that tastes salty, and decide that the seas must be boiling away. Eventually however the astronomical half of the pair realizes that rather than a nova they were simply dealing with a massive solar flare and that while the other side of the planet may indeed have gotten hit that they themselves were likely going to be OK.
Anyone here remember the name of the tale? And, on a more serious note, does anyone here know if we have the equivalent of “geological records” recording serious solar events that might be far less than “dinosaur killers” but would be highly disastrous for our civilization today if similar ones occurred?
😕
MJM
My DSL connection has been remarkably unstable for the last 1/2 day or so…
I noticed that it was unstable the last time flare producers where pointed my way too…
Houston, I think we have a pattern! 😉
I am always amazed by the superb images, check out the cameras mentioned when you click on the image. There are some great nebula images here using a different camera to the one David Maidment used: http://www.apm-apo.com/fotos_e.htm
@michaeljmcfadden
Larry Niven _Inconstant Moon_
Sage! 🙂 Thank you! And, in trying to track down just what one of my hundreds of short story anthologies might contain it a bit of Googling turned up the fact that it’s available as an Outer Limits episode on the IMDB!
🙂
MJM
Sage! 🙂 Thank you! And, in trying to track down just what one of my hundreds of short story anthologies might contain it a bit of Googling turned up the fact that it’s available as an Outer Limits episode on the IMDB and Hulu.com. See:
http://www.hulu.com/watch/61856/outer-limits-inconstant-moon#x-0,vepisode,1,0
Now THAT would be Global Warming!
:>
MJM