
Tom Nelson spots this droll duo:
The Policy Lass is sick of arguing with stupid people. Anyone who has been to WUWT and the comment threads there will empathise. It is all a hopeless morass of nonsense; it cannot be fixed, only risen above. And indeed (as I’ve tried to tell them) the science just goes on without them. But I’ll still visit occaisionally in case there is anyone there who wants to listen.
Arguing With Stupid People | The Policy Lass
Research shows that stupid people — people who truly are ignorant — tend to think they know far more than they do. They are also more likely to think informed people know less than they do. It’s the D-K effect and it’s rampant at both CA and WUWT and Climate Etc. If you’ve ever haunted those sites, you know what I’m talking about.
I’m always tempted to go to there and look for ‘teh stupid’ so I can mock it, but as the Twain quote says, they just bring you down to their level. Admittedly, there is a certain pleasure in mocking teh stupid, but life is short and its unnaturally warm outside. Time’s a wasting.
I get such a kick out this, especially since Connolley has shown that he’d rather just dismiss everyone with a wave of the condescending hand. At least he doesn’t call for our houses to be burned, though I’ll bet he secretly likes the idea.
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…I see it another way
Connolley tried to promote himself….
….it didn’t work
He felt he needed an excuse for stopping
Maybe I missed something, but from what I’ve seen Connelly’s still there on Wikipedia. As well as a lackey of his with the handle of SkepticalRaptor. And it’s not just climate science they’re dumping on. The Younger Dryas Impact Page has been closed to further edits because SkepticalRaptor started an edit war when he deleted a reference to a recent, and relevant PNAS paper titled Evidence from central Mexico supporting the Younger Dryas extraterrestrial impact hypothesis.
On the YDIH talk page his stated reason for his destructive edit, and deleting a reference to relevant peer reviewed literature is:
“Only to shut up everyone did I edit in the article, but it really doesn’t qualify as a Reliable Source, by any definition of the word. By the way, the work in Mexico has been debunked by a lot of people smarter than me.” (That was pretty quick since the paper was only published on March 6 2012) I guess his definition of a “reliable” source is anyone smarter than him.
He probably didn’t have to look far to find people who’re smarter than he is. But he makes it abundantly clear that on Wikipedia the stupid unfounded opinions if the “consensus” trumps real science every time.
I call the process mutual-inter-assumptive confabulation.
Atmospheric science is on the side of the so called “sceptics”. The actual planetary measured warming due to the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is lower than the lowest IPCC model predicted warming. All of the warming is it at high latitudes where it was caused the biosphere to expand.
The fact that actual planetary warming is less than the lowest IPCC model prediction and is found only at high latitudes logically supports the assertion that the planet’s response to a change in forcing is to resist the change (negative feedback, planetary clouds in the tropics increase reflecting more sunlight in to space) rather than to amplify the change (positive feedback) due increased water vapour in the atmosphere.
Analysis of top of the atmosphere radiation changes Vs changes in planetary temperature also support the assertion that planetary clouds increase in the tropics thereby reflecting more sunlight off into space thereby resisting forcing changes rather than amplifying them.
Trillions of dollars are being proposed to be spent on boondoggle schemes which will not significantly reduction carbon dioxide increases but will have significant negative effects to the environment and to humanity. An example is the EU and US mandated conversion of food to biofuel (massive loss of tropic forest and unsustainable increase in the cost of food).
Western countries do not have trillions of extra tax payer funds to spend on irrational policy schemes that will damage the environment and result in starvation and malnutrition.
Carbon dioxide is not a poison. Plants eat CO2. A doubling of CO2 increases cereal yields by 30% to 40%. Plants make more effective use of water when CO2 rises which reduces desertification. The increase in atmospheric CO2 is unequivocally a significant net benefit to the biosphere and to humanity. Crop yields are and will continue to increase. There is and will be increased net precipitation. The biosphere expands when the planet warms with most of the warming occurring at high latitudes. That is a fact.
Science is unequivocally on the side of “sceptics”. No rational person would support trillion dollar boondoggle schemes.
The extreme AGW issue is a mania, the madness of crowds.
http://blogs-images.forbes.com/warrenmeyer/files/2012/02/15yr-temps.gif
http://www.forbes.com/sites/warrenmeyer/2012/02/09/understanding-the-global-warming-debate/
“The problem for global warming supporters is they actually need for past warming from CO2 to be higher than 0.7C. If the IPCC is correct that based on their high-feedback models we should expect to see 3C of warming per doubling of CO2, looking backwards this means we should already have seen about 1.5C of CO2-driven warming based on past CO2 increases. But no matter how uncertain our measurements, it’s clear we have seen nothing like this kind of temperature rise. Past warming has in fact been more consistent with low or even negative feedback assumptions.”
Richard Lindzen,
“It has long been observed that global warming offers opportunities for a huge number of interests to exploit and that the eagerness to exploit the issue has led to a remarkable corruption of institutions – public, private, and academic. In a set of cogent and well-written contributions, Climate Coup documents what is happening intelligently and in depth. There is no need for indignation in the contributions: the situation speaks for itself. One can only hope that the ordinary citizens of both the developed and developing worlds, who are the primary victims of all the Canute-like efforts to control climate, will take notice.
http://www-eaps.mit.edu/faculty/lindzen/236-Lindzen-Choi-2011.pdf
On the Observational Determination of Climate Sensitivity and Its Implications
We estimate climate sensitivity from observations, using the deseasonalized fluctuations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the concurrent fluctuations in the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing radiation from the ERBE (1985-1999) and CERES (2000-2008) satellite instruments. Distinct periods of warming and cooling in the SSTs were used to evaluate feedbacks. An earlier study (Lindzen and Choi, 2009) was subject to significant criticisms. The present paper is an expansion of the earlier paper where the various criticisms are taken into account. The present analysis accounts for the 72 day precession period for the ERBE satellite in a more appropriate manner than in the earlier paper. We develop a method to distinguish noise in the outgoing radiation as well as radiation changes that are forcing SST changes from those radiation changes that constitute feedbacks to changes in SST. We demonstrate that our new method does moderately well in distinguishing positive from negative feedbacks and in quantifying negative feedbacks. In contrast, we show that simple regression methods used by several existing papers generally exaggerate positive feedbacks and even show positive feedbacks when actual feedbacks are negative. We argue that feedbacks are largely concentrated in the tropics, and the tropical feedbacks can be adjusted to account for their impact on the globe as a whole. Indeed, we show that including all CERES data (not just from the tropics) leads to results similar to what are obtained for the tropics alone – though with more noise. We again find that the outgoing radiation resulting from SST fluctuations exceeds the zerofeedback response thus implying negative feedback. In contrast to this, the calculated TOA outgoing radiation fluxes from 11 atmospheric models forced by the observed SST are less than the zerofeedback response, consistent with the positive feedbacks that characterize these models. The results imply that the models are exaggerating climate sensitivity. ….
….However, warming from a doubling of CO2 would only be about 1oC (based on simple calculations where the radiation altitude and the Planck temperature depend on wavelength in accordance with the attenuation coefficients of wellmixed CO2 molecules; a doubling of any concentration in ppmv produces the same warming because of the logarithmic dependence of CO2’s absorption on the amount of CO2) (IPCC, 2007). This modest warming is much less than current climate models suggest for a doubling of CO2. Models predict warming of from 1.5oC to 5oC and even more for a doubling of CO2. Model predictions depend on the ‘feedback’ within models from the more important greenhouse substances, water vapor and clouds. Within all current climate models, water vapor increases with increasing temperature so as to further inhibit infrared cooling. Clouds also change so that their visible reflectivity decreases, causing increased solar absorption and warming of the earth….
It’s notable to remember WHY Connaly and the other warmists can’t resist coming here, no matter how much they hate it – This is where all the traffic is!
He can pontificate all he wants over at his place, but NOBODY except a handful of his bff’s even looks at that site anymore, same for all the other warmist sites.
Connelly my lie, but Alexa doesn’t!!! (and that must really burn him up!)
One side of this debate is claiming catastrophic climate change due to human emissions of CO2 based on the models they create.
The other side says we really don’t know enough to make those claims, and are supported by all empirical evidence.
So…..
“Research shows that stupid people — people who truly are ignorant — tend to think they know far more than they do.”
As the diameter of the circle of our knowledge increases, the circumference of our ignorance increases that much faster–by “pi”, actually.
I don’t think William ever found his circle and Policy Lass apparently has difficulty recognizing a circle even by consensus.
Arguing with Connelly is like arguing with a 14 year old, who will insist you are shouting, you are stupid, and you are out of touch with how things really are.
Connolley, I know what you’ve done. It does not matter that anyone else knows.
Regarding stupidity; From a universal standpoint, we are all “stupid”, you just have to be smart enough to know we are all “stupid”. Connolly is too arrogant to recognize that he is “stupid”, too. This is the scariest kind of “stupid”.
The name “Policy lass” tells me all I need to know about her motivation.
Take a step back please and see what is happening here. Whatever the wrongs of “the Stoat” and his followers, you will not convince any true believer that what WC is talking about is utter rot. Instead one needs an independent framework to evaluate the claims. For instance, for the .
1. Where pseudo-science has being mistaken for science (e.g. Himalayan Glaciers), has an independent audit see if similar mistakes have been made?
2. Has the science made efforts to become more rigorous or is there evidence of hyperbole increasingly being used? Has it tried to confront the uncertainties, or suppress them. (e.g. exploring the extent of feedbacks)
3. Where there are conflicts of interest exposed, have these been eradicated or covered up? For instance, as surface temperature measurement are crucial matrix, have efforts been made to separate data collection and evaluation from those whose create the climate models.
4. Is the theory underdetermined? That is, are there other theories (or chaotic randomness) that can also explain the observed phenomena? Richard Lindzen enlarged on this issue a few weeks ago in a talk in the House of Commons.
5. Does the evidence better support a less extreme version of events. e.g. CO2 could be having an impact on temperatures, but nothing likely to be harmful.
For the non-scientist, who is coming at the issue afresh, the questions they should ask are:-
1. Does any group encourage me to compare and contrast the arguments?
2. Are any doubts put to rest, or I am told that only real experts can understand?
3. Which side puts greatest effort into denigrating the opposition? The example above is not the first time where one group tries to characterise another group as intellectually inferior.
4. Is there material evidence of any group trying to block debate? Or are both sides happy to debate the issues involved?
The Policy Lass AKA The Policy Wonk AKA Susan lorded it around CA circa 2009. There were many detailed exchanges between her and SM.
Dennis Cox, I followed your link to the discussion regarding the Younger Dryas on Wikipedia where it reads to me that William Connelly is disagreeing with SkepitcalRaptor and has said that the paper you quote should be included. Look at this section for example, William Connelly clearly says “I disagree” when Skeptical Raptor says “The PNAS paper should be disregarded”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Younger_Dryas_impact_hypothesis#My_own_pet_section
Robbie says:
April 21, 2012 at 3:46 am
Well he is right about it. There are a lot of stupids here. Just like in other places on the web.
If the bloggers here want to fight the science battle they should publish their rebuttals in peer-reviewed magazines and not in blogs.
I told that to two different bloggers here on WUWT. Both are too reluctant to do so. So therefore these people will never be taken seriously. At least not by me.
I am sorry, but it is as it is.
————————-
Robbie, you must get up to date about peer review. Are you one of the few people around here who has never read the climategate I & II emails. Where the team openly discusses their dishonesty and how they have a PAL review process and they help each other get grants and awards instead. How they get rid of editors and try to bury evidence and even kill any journal that doesn’t support the “cause”.
imo As far as peer review, WUWT is the place to discuss your theories. NOBODY gets a free pass here and be ready to show your proof including references. All your data and any code or programs you used to develop your theory are a must. Anything you write at WUWT generally will be questioned. Therefore, even the “Team” reads WUWT.
ps
for some real fun reading check out the “harry read me” file.
you may give up on science altogether.
Beware of statements that begin: “Research shows…”. Surely anything that follows will be void of original thought. Just more noise and ignorance from the echo chamber.
“Research shows that stupid people — people who truly are ignorant — tend to think they know far more than they do. They are also more likely to think informed people know less than they do. It’s the D-K effect and it’s rampant at both CA and WUWT and Climate Etc. If you’ve ever haunted those sites, you know what I’m talking about.”
Priceless. He should look in the mirror and also see how rampant it is at Real Climate.
True ignorance is making a statement you think applies to other people when it actually applies to yourself instead.
davidmhoffer says:
April 20, 2012 at 9:49 pm
“I’ve run across Mr Connolley on several blogs and must admit that I’ve never won an argument with him. When I point out facts contrary to his assertion, he goes away.”
Sounds like a win to me.
Debate Rule #1: Never argue with a fool. Bystanders can’t tell the difference.
Louise, my point there was to show that W.M Connelly isn’t gone from Wikipedia. And while he took the rational science side in that discussion, if you read other exchanges between the two, on other subjects, you’ll see that SkepticalRaptor idolizes the guy.
I drew the comparison to the GW debate because SR’s ad hominem tactics in attacking the science of the YDIH look like they came right out of Connelly’s playbook.
.
The point of branding us stupid and deniers is not that they think we care or get upset or indeed are stupid. The point is to make us a group the young and the undecided don’t want to be perceived as. The hope is to destroy our brand.
Hmmm. Not sure how that happened but I think I’ll stick with just Duncan!
Bloody iPhone!
Helen Hawkins said:
“Debate Rule #1: Never argue with a fool. Bystanders can’t tell the difference.”
Debate rule #2 You can’t clean out a sewer without getting pooped on, and shoveling some of it.
Tom B. says:
April 21, 2012 at 5:55 am
Policy Lass: PhD in “Social Science”?
Ah, a Social Scientist. got it. Explains a lot…..
Gezackly. Any “science” preceded by an adjective isn’t Science.
The visitors and posters at WUWT should heed Mark Twain’s words.
————————————————————–
…there are some things that can beat smartness and foresight. Awkwardness and stupidity can. The best swordsman in the world doesn’t need to fear the second best swordsman in the world; no, the person for him to be afraid of is some ignorant antagonist who has never had a sword in his hand before; he doesn’t do the thing he ought to do, and so the expert isn’t prepared for him.
– A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court
Reading stoats non-sense brings to mind a saying that I ran across in my Japanese studies:
“Itachi no saigoppe”, the final fart of a weasel, referring to a last deperate action.
> Maybe I should hang out at http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/ for a while,
Come on in if you think you’re hard enough. My bet is that without the supporting environment you’re used to here, and the friendly mods, you’re just not up to it.
davidmhoffer says> I’ve run across Mr Connolley on several blogs and must admit that I’ve never won an argument with him. When I point out facts contrary to his assertion, he goes away.
Yeah yeah, big words but as usual no actual substance. The invite above is extended to you, too.
dtbronzich says:> http://www.conservapedia.com/William_M._Connolley
I’m proud of that page: its so batshit insane its risible; I link to it from my wiki page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:William_M._Connolley. And you’re too dump to realise it.
Adam says:> Please let him know that I would love to discuss the science with him
Why hello. You know where I live – feel free to come and ask, if you want to.
Mac the Knife > Let me state this succinctly, Mr Connolley. Ignorance is curable
Let me help you. I’m curious to see if you’re capable of learning.
> REPLY – So Judith Curry has been officially declared apostate, then.
Let me help you: http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2010/08/curry_jumps_the_shark.php
> MikeN says: William Connolley tried to defend Mann from the attacks of using Tiljander proxies upside-down
You’re half right. http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2009/11/tiljander_again.php for the details.
Bill Illis says> : Wikipedia had the potential… People like Connelly turned it into an untrustworthy source
You need evidence for that. And no, recycled inaccurate WUWT posts aren’t good enough.
@WillyCon: “My bet is that without the supporting environment you’re used to here, and the friendly mods, you’re just not up to it.”
And that’s the trick, now, isn’t it? At WUWT, mods are incredibly patient with people who might come in with a different point of view. On your own turf, you rely on moderation to keep ideas out.
Did you miss the point of the critiques aimed at you? Or are you just reacting viscerally to the drubbing you’ve been given in public, and acting out?