Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Since I was a kid I’ve been reading stories about “The Year Without A Summer”. This was the summer of 1816, one year after the great eruption of the Tambora volcano in Indonesia. The Tambora eruption, in April of 1815, was so huge it could be heard from 2,600 km away (1,600 miles). The stories were always about how the following summer was outrageously cold. Supposedly, the summer was so cold it was like having no summer at all.
Being a suspicious fellow, I got to thinking about that, and I realized I’d never seen any actual temperature data for the year of 1816. So I went off to find some early temperature data. I started with the ECA dataset, and downloaded the Daily Mean Temperature TG (162Mb). That revealed five stations with daily temperature records with starting dates before 1816—Stockholm, Bologna, Milan, Praha-Klementinum, and Hohenpeissenberg.
So once again, I found myself playing “Spot the Volcanoes”, as in my previous post on this subject. When I wrote that post, I hadn’t been able to spot the smaller eruptions of Pinatubo and other modern volcanoes, but Tambora was the big cheese, the grand gorgonzola of volcanoes. Surely I could find that one … so here’s the record from Stockholm.
Figure 1. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Stockholm
So the question is, which year is “The Year Without A Summer”? The year indicated by the blue arrow, or the year shown by the green arrow?
Actually, I fear that was a trick question. Here’s the same data, this time with the years indicated.
Figure 2. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Stockholm, including the dates.
As you can see, the 1816 “Year Without A Summer” actually was warmer than a number of other summers in Stockholm. It’s the third peak from the left in the top panel, and was above 20°C. Just in this tiny sample we see some six summers that were cooler than the summer of 1816 in Stockholm …
So, I looked at the other locations. Here are the other four European cities with records that cover the Tambora eruption—Bologna, Milan, Praha-Klementinum, and Hohenpeissenberg. In these, both the upper and lower panels are from the early 1800s. No more trick questions, in all cases, one or the other of the green and blue arrows actually indicates the “Year Without A Summer”.
Figure 3. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Bologna.
Figure 4. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Milan.
Figure 5. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Praha-Klementinum.
Figure 6. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Hohenpeissenberg.
That was all the daily temperature records I could find from that far back. There’s a monthly record from Armagh, in Ireland. Here’s that record.
Figure 6. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Armagh.
I’m sure that you can see the difficulty. If Tambora actually did something to the temperature, you sure couldn’t tell it from these records. Not one of them is readily distinguishable as missing a summer.
In “The Great Tambora Eruption in 1815 and Its Aftermath” (paywalled, Science Magazine, 1984), the author says (emphasis mine):
To Europeans and North Americans, 1816 became known as “the year without a summer” (41). Daily temperatures (especially the daily minimums) were in many cases abnormally low from late spring through early fall; frequent north-west winds brought snow and frost to northern New England and Canada, and heavy rains fell in western Europe. Many crops failed to ripen, and the poor harvests led to famine, disease, and so- cial distress, compounded by the aftermath of the Napoleonic wars.Tambora’s dust veil is often blamed by modern researchers for the cold summer of 1816. The argument given is that the stratospheric dust veil would have absorbed or reflected solar radiation that could otherwise have reached the ground (42). Not all regions,however, experienced abnormally low temperatures, and the preceding winter had generally been mild. Therefore, a few researchers deny that there was any (or at least a strong) connection with the volcano (39,43).
I’m leaning towards the “few researchers” that deny a strong connection with Tambora. What other records do we have? Well, over at KNMI I find the record for Manchester, England:
Figure 6. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Manchester.
Moving across the Atlantic, here’s the record from New Haven in Connecticut.
Figure 6. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in New Haven, Connecticut.
I’m just not feeling the Tambora love here … where are the records of years without a summer? Or at least of a summer that’s significantly colder than its neighbors?
Don’t get me wrong here. I suspect that generally, the summer of 1816 was a bit colder than most summers. But as the graphs above show, in all of these datasets there are comparable summers within a few decades either side of 1816 that have summers that are as cool, or cooler, than the summer of 1816.
And I would guess that a careful search would reveal some records with cooler summers than the ones I’ve found here. But overall, let me suggest that over the years the Tambora story has gotten greatly exaggerated, just as we do today with our stories of “Cold? You haven’t seen real cold. Why, when I was a young man it was so cold that …”
Conclusions? Well, my main conclusion is what I’ve been saying for some time. The temperature of the earth is not particularly ruled by the changes in how much energy it receives. Tambora cut off a huge amount of sunlight, but the effect was small. Yes, some areas had a summer that was a bit cooler than most summers. And I’m sure there were certain locations where it hit harder than others. But overall? The thermostatic mechanisms of the planet kept Tambora from having a much of a cooling effect.
My best to all. I append all of the figures below, with the dates, so you can see the lack of effect. Note that in many of them, the temperature in 1815 was about the same as 1816 … and that despite the size of the volcano, if there was any effect, it was totally gone by 1817.
w.
If that’s what a really big volcano can do, I’m not impressed. Well, I am impressed, but what’s impressive is the strength of the thermostatic mechanisms that keep the earth’s temperature within a very narrow band. Even a huge volcano can’t put it out of sorts for much more than one summer, and even then not too much.
The place to look for the effect of volcanic eruptions on the climate is in food commodity prices. That is where climate change has its greatest impact on human society. In those records the Tambora eruption is unmissable.
A dodge? What does it take to ruin or ‘do in’ a crop? A killing frost in July, or snow in June (ice crystals in contact with green leafy vegetation)? An unusual run of cool and damp (wet/rainy) conditions at the end of ‘ripening’ season straight through into harvest time?
In the case of a frost, one night should be sufficient to kill, yet in an ‘averaged’ temperature depiction might tend only to the ‘low’ end of what looks normal on Willis’ charts.
And – where are the temperature records/charts which would reflect the accounts of snow in June (with the accompanying low temp indication)?
I don’t see one ‘chart’ showing an excursion to 0 deg. C ostensibly during the summer period of time on your charts; are these ‘charts’ (or your data) of insufficient resolution to show this information?
Perhaps the charts were (cherry) picked to avoid depicting the frosts or snows in summer (as accounts detail)?
Anyway, for additional fodder I will enter the following into the record:
The introduction to this book provides some ‘growing season’ charts encompassing the year 1816 for three different locations in the northeast USA: Encyclopedia of Volcanoes
By Bruce Houghton, Hazel Rymer, Steve McNutt, Haraldur Sigurdsson, John Stix
.- – – – – – – – – – – – –
From: Rural Conflict, Crime, and Protest: Herefordshire, 1800 to 1860 By Timothy Shakesheff
“As Figure 4.1 illustrates the exceptional bread prices of 1817 correspond with the exceptional year for sheep-thefts.” (Crime was on the rise and foodstuffs became expensive, so ppl turned to ‘theft’ to survive)
– – – – – – – – – – –
From:
A Study in Meterological and Trade Cycle History: The Economic Crisis Following the Napoleonic Wars
by John D. Post
The Journal of Economic History
Vol. 34, No. 2 (Jun., 1974), pp. 315-349
Partial (Google search) description (since the doc is behind a paywall):
… patterns as a primary independent variable determining prosperity or depression. ….. ing the years 1815-1816 for 11 locations in 11 countries and three continents. … The spring and summer months of 1816 were unseasonably cold in the eastern half …… of grain production occurred on a major scale after 1816. …
.
Here is the oldest reference that I can find using a “Google Books” search for that phrase:
‘Working Farmer,’ 1850
http://books.google.com/books?id=_s1FAAAAYAAJ&pg=RA1-PA174&dq=%22year+without+a+summer%22&hl=en&sa=X&ei=NY2LT5O6N6WqiQLz7PWuCw&ved=0CEAQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=%22year%20without%20a%20summer%22&f=false
You don’t have to go back to 1816. 2011-12 was a year without a summer in Sydney Australia. Temperatures weren’t abnormally low. It simply rained about every second day on average.
It made Tim Flannery look a fool with his forecast of “perpetual drought”, that was much of the basis for our now mothballed desalination plant.
Old woman of the north says:
April 15, 2012 at 7:20 pm
“The past few years have seen low solar activity and there has also been cooler summer maximums for the past few years so, although the volcanism probably did have some effect on weather it may have been allied to the low solar activity as seems to have been the case for the past couple of years.”
Solar Cycles 4, 5 and 6 from about 1798-1835 are three of the the lowest cycles on recorded dates between 1749 – 2009. Our current cycle SC-24 is shaping up to be of similar size so far, It’s been interesting to watch the (possibly associated) volcanic activity and the colder winters setting in.
Okay if we want to see if volcanoes can have a measurable impact on climate look at the 3 biggest for the time period that the ice cores cover.
Long Valley (700,000 BC), Yellowstone (300,000 BC) and Toba (72,000 BC). All are 8’s on the VEI. I know the ice cores might miss it because the longest ice cores are from Antartica but you would expect to see something. Maybe it is the resolution, maybe it is me or maybe it doesn’t have the effect on climate.
Like others have pointed out it may affect some food production is some regions but it does not appear to affect climate. Sunshine hitting the plants? More early and late frost kills? Interesting as always. Thanks Willis.
…sorry to come to this discussion so late and notice only one mention of the Manley’s Central England Temperature record (1953, 1974).
Commenter ‘mfo’ above refers us to one of the longest — and oft regarded the most accurate — thermometer-based record around. On page 402 you see this graph:
http://enthusiasmscepticismscience.wordpress.com/global-temperature-graphs/1973-manley-central-england-temp-record/
Look especially at the Summer line and you will see a significant dip in the running 10 year average just before 1820. This can be confirmed in the data. Other years seem to have either a slow start or early end to the summer. But for 1816 the average temperature across June, July, August and September remains low. But still not really cold…not at all like winter….and not much like autumn either. And this is where Willis misses an important point…
Temperature averages, or even temperature, is not all what ‘summer’ is about. In high latitude agricultural societies ‘good’ summers are sunny and warm, while ‘bad’ summers are are cloudy, stormy and rainy… and cool. The potato famine occurred in a ‘bad’ summer, where the excessively wet conditions stimulated the fungal growth on the potatoes. Bad summers were about crop failure. Stormy wet (slightly colder) conditions are what often causes crop failure at these latitudes.
For a farmer, a year without a crop is a year without summer. If you look at the records, this is exactly what the farmers of 1816 were complaining about in the regions affected. Crops were also killed by frosts during dramatic short drops in temperature — increase variability that may not show in mean temp data.
But then in the update Willis notes a low point in food prices in 1816 that seems to contradict this. How much, I am not sure. Harvest is late in the year in the northern hemisphere, yes? So the declining price trend is reversed in 1816 and then there is a climb in price over the next 3 years. I find it hard to distinguish the colours in the graph, but one would want to look at the movement of staple crops effected by soggy conditions eg, wheat, oats as well as potatoes.
In the 1890s Eduard Bruckner actually proposed a link between rate of migration to the new world with good/bad summers accord to the sunny-dry cloudy-wet variable. This was based on the fact that a bad (soggy) summer at high latitudes (eg UK) often meant a good summer closer to the desert fringe at mid-latitudes (eg Utah, Australia). Good sources of the impact of climate change on agrarian societies during the 19th century are also H H Lamb, and M L Parry.
Regarding the aforementioned War of 1812 between Canada and the USA:
The USA is by far the best neighbour Canada could ever ask for. Canada is now the largest foreign supplier of oil to the USA. We are still, I think, the largest bilateral trading partners in the world.
We have managed to get along and prosper together for over two hundred years, apart from some unpleasantries in 1812, when we burned the White House and the Yanks burned Toronto.
Confidentially, people from all over Canada agree that Toronto ought to be burned from time to time, so we think we got the better of that deal.
Then the Americans thought they would have an easier time with the Quebecois, so invaded via Lake Champlain and the Richelieu River. The crafty Quebecois challenged them to a hockey game, and then dropped their gloves before the opening face-off and beat the crap out of the unsuspecting Yanks. It`s been a cherished Canadian hockey tradition ever since.
Then there was the Oregon Crisis of 1844-45: “54-40 or Fight!“ The USA is really fortunate that it did not win that one – just imagine the impact on USA politics if you had all the lefties in BC allied with all the lefties in California, Oregon and Washington – you`d have a full blown confluence of intellectual putrescence, a critical mass of Left Coast demagoguery, a catastrophic breach in the firmament, fire and brimstone coming down from the sky, dogs and cats living together… .. kind of like the Obama White House, only bigger.
Meat prices could be indicative of over supply, under supply, or insufficient feed due to poor growing conditions and thus the need to sell it before its expiration, driving down prices.
The unusual killing frosts cited above from Thomas Jefferson are far more informative for farmers than average minimum temperatures.
The wealth of information supplied in Willis’ post and the following blogger comments seem to me to point in the direction that large volcanic eruptions can, temporarily, affect temperature over select areas.
Here is an alternate (possible) cause of the Year Without a Summer.
The extreme cold bursts across eastern N America (caused by natural weather variability) result in periods of much colder than normal air over the eastern Atlantic. As I mentioned above, the temperature differential between ocean and atmosphere is what drives ocean evaporation. Colder than normal air would result in more evaporation, most of which would end up as increased cloud and rain over western Europe.
This explains why western Europe was disproportionately affected by the YWAS and the apparent episodic nature of the cool wet weather.
Otherwise, while volcanic aerosols do cause cooling, how much, where, and for how long is poorly understood. The climate models over-estimate volcanic cooling by a factor of 2 or 3 and perhaps the duration by a similar amount.
I love the smell of economic history in the morning!
Willis is right to point out that widespread crop failures would have affected prices very quickly. Futures markets have always existed for widely traded commodities such as grain crops, in the sense that as soon as it became apparent that a shortage of, say, barley was in the offing, prices would rise. That information would be available well before the harvest date in most cases.
So, if the UK summer of 1816 was uniformly disastrous for grain crops, the price indices would have risen sharply well before year’s end, and continued into the following year. But they didn’t.
berniel says:
April 15, 2012 at 9:25 pm
Thanks, berniel. From the graph in your citation of the Central England Temperature series …
I’m sorry, but I’m just not buying that in England the average temperatures in the summer of 1816 were unusual. Look how many summers were colder than the summer of 1816, literally dozens and dozens of colder summers in the CET record. Volcanoes are supposed to reduce the temperature globally. It didn’t happen in England.
Now, you can point out that crops fail for other reasons, too much rain, too little rain, whatever. Heck, I know that, I’m a country boy.
But the volcano is supposed to cause cold, not rain. That was the claim that I was investigating, that somehow the volcanoes were capable of causing the volcanic equivalent of “nuclear winter” by cooling the planet … and I don’t see that at all in the CET record that you recommend.
w.
Willis,
Thanks for a posting which has generated a fascinating discussion. It’s what I come to WUWT for.
Sandy Sinclair
I am in Pr. George, BC. Last year our average rainfall for july and august was normal, the temperatures were normal. But it rained too much to get our hay off without a huge struggle, it was cold, the hay took forever to dry. This was a widespread problem.
I think the average rainfall did not take into account the localized thunderstorms and the amount of precipitation involved. Also, daily max and mins dont sum up the amount of sun, the length of time it was warm that day, on a cold summer day like last year, it may only be warm for a couple of hours instead of in a hot summer where it could be hot for 14 hours.
Just looking at the data for last summer did not accurately depict the weather. Everyone says that they are hoping for a summer this year, yet according to environment canada we did have a normal one last year.
So, the weather charts for 1815/1816 may be accurate, but not actually depict the conditions experienced.
Just something to think about.
Willis — Here’s a link to a discussion of the Summer of 1816 in Northern New England. Some things to consider: http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/history/1816.htm
1. 1816 was one of a series of quite cold years.
2. The growing season in Northern New England is short even today. SIgnificant snowfalls in May happen from time to time (e.g. 15 inches in the mountain passes on May 19, 2008). As do frosts in early September.
3. In the early 19th century, farmers were working land considerably higher up in the mountains than today. (There’s a reason that dairy is popular in Vermont. Grass and cows can tolerate a little cold).
Bottom line: It didn’t take a lot of cold to cause crops to fail in 1816 because it really was a cold year, and marginal land was being farmed.
(BTW, I’ve always thought it interesting that the last Frost Fair on the frozen Thames at London was held in 1814 — a year before the Tambora eruption)
Dr Dave says: “I find your response unnecessarily insolent in tone. My doctorate is certainly NOT in climate science. It is in the mundane field of human health. Perhaps you do not understand the difference between “link”, “correlation” and “causation”. I specifically wrote link.”
You find my comment “insolent”. You seem like many doctors of medicine to have a high opinion of yourself and find it “isolent” if anyone else questions you (even when you have no knowledge of their training or competence).
I am very aware of the difference between correlation and causation and was criticising your acclaimed “link in my mind” comment.
If you *meant* “link but not causation or correlation” perhaps you should have said so in the post rather than when I’d pulled you up on your sloppy comment.
Since you now point out that “link” really means nothing and is used by lawyers to deceive a jury what was the aim of the comment you posted?
Obviously commodity prices are affected by more than the climate, a little local difficulty like the Napoleonic wars can have some influence….
But for those with a thirst for more data, and with a global span of many commodities try this link
http://www.gcpdb.info/index.html
Lessons from history seem short lived as stockpiling of food for a rainy day would appear to have vanished. Volcanoes or not our food supplies are not so much effected by climate as by weather.
One wide spread frost or a period of heavy rain at the wrong time and millions of tons of food can be destroyed. Weather is the reason we can grow food. Beautiful blue skies at 85F are wonderful days, if you have them every day you can not grow food. Food production is at the behest of the weathers gods.
Climate is not ours to control, it is almostly entirely outside influences that give our planet climate, it is the reaction to these influences that give us weather, as the planet chases its tail trying to find equalibrium.
We have three designated climate zones, hot, medium and cold these three zones are not fixed in stone and can move around a bit with changing influences and so the weather patterns can change. Fortunately we have vast oceans that are our heat bank, that store heat in the good times [governments do not control that] so we have some heat for the bad times. The recent increase in thermal capacity of the oceans will be rather welcome in the coming decades as the sun has its predicted holiday. Our planet may seem incomprehensible in its complications, like not seeing the forest for the trees, but overarching simplistic systems control our climate, whilst we live and try to understand climate chaos.
Apart from 1976, in my 65 years of experience, every year in the UK is a year without a summer!
Obviously! I love this theory. I love it so much that I will ignore that it would predict that day and night should be the same temperature. It’s a winner!
I agree that the effects are regional, as India was affected in its region’s from the ENSO cycle before the Brits build train lines. Before you had hunger and death here or there and at the same time surplus food there and here, but no way to transport or trade it to better priced markets.
The effect should be regional lack of food, hunger, sickness and death for areas with no trade infrastructure with other region’s.
Region’s with ship trade and later train trade region’s would have been less affected by radical food price changes hunger, sickness and death?
Kelvin Vaughan says:
April 16, 2012 at 4:37 am
>> Apart from 1976, in my 65 years of experience, every year in the UK is a year without a summer!
What a ridiculous statement. The summer in the UK usually starts in the middle of May. It lasts for about 2 weeks. 😉
You are correct about ’76 though. That was the only year sub-polar countries would count as a real summer. I remember waited through about ten years of disappointment then realised, packed my bags a when to the antipodes.
The misguided fools think they have to “lead the world” in reducing global warming, they could use some.
Old woman of the north says:
April 15, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Some people have identified solar cycles of approximately 100 and 200 years, with manifestations of cooler weather early in the 20th century. The cool period early in the 19th century is in sync with the Dalton Minimum.
While some people see a link between periods of low solar activity and volcanic activity, I’m not convinced that explains the low temperatures – Tambora was such a huge eruption that it should swamp the effect of all the other volcanoes of that period. Of course, Willis is pointing out that there is little sign of cooling in the temperature record, so perhaps there’s more to measuring weather and climate than just temperature.
Given the steady decline in sunspot magnetic fields that Livingston and Penn are tracking, I’m expecting this period to become a named minimum. The next couple of decades will be interesting.
Willis Eschenbach says:
April 15, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Neither humans, animals, nor plants relate or respond to average temperature. Averages are a mathematical construct with no reality. We relate and respond to actual temperatures. So I’ve used actual temperatures.
____________________________
You’re mixing up average temperatures and temperature anomalies. People don’t just say ‘oh, this spring is so much warmer than the winter was’, they also say ‘oh, this spring is so much warmer than any other spring I remember’. Of course such observation is not scientific if it’s not backed up by recorded temperatures and other facts but it’s I believe sufficient proof even non-scientist humans can and regularly do perform anomaly evaluation. And so do plants and animals if the actual temperature and other environmental factors differ largely from the state they are used to at that particular period of the year. Warm spring leads to plants blooming way earlier even if you wouldn’t spot any difference on the temperature graph because spring just happens to lie on the steepest part of the temperature slope.
You’re just looking for excuses for not using temperature anomalies in the place where they actually may be useful. If you want to play fair, show us both. If you don’t, you don’t play fair.
Allan MacRae says:
April 15, 2012 at 9:31 pm
I’m the direct beneficiary of the colonies’ invasion of Quebec. Every so often Quebec City (the most European city in North America) holds a major reenactment, and when my wife an I were part of a New Hampshire group we attended one (2004, it appears). Camping (for free) on the Plains of Abraham in walking distance of a restaurant that served wonderful crepes, parading through the old city, running around with a cannon crew, great weekend.
The reenactment is really more show than history, as the Battle of the Plains of Abraham was between the French and British. BTW, even modern musket replicas are allowed through customs without jump through hoops. They fall under the antiques are okay clause.
Hmm, I see the 2009 reenactment was canceled due to a dispute a with the Québécois. Something about a reminder that the Brits won that battle. Hey guys, that was the 250th anniversary. I guess some skin stays thin.
Personally, I think victory by the Quebec sovereigntists would have made for some really good entertainment. I bet the Toronto newspaper headline would have said “Good riddance.”
Given the steady decline in sunspot magnetic fields that Livingston and Penn are tracking, I’m expecting this period to become a named minimum. The next couple of decades will be interesting.
Damn right. And whatever the cause, watching the modulation of the albedo is already interesting. A 7% increase over 15 years, if sustained, corresponds to a long term drop of global average temperature of around 2 K. If that happened around the LIA Maunder minimum and the Dalton minimum, it would certainly explain a lot.
Willis is right, of course — as a mostly/locally stable climate system with a huge thermal ballast in its oceans, the Earth tends to “resist” changes on less than a decadal (over multiple solar cycles, basically) and local climate varies strongly with e.g. the decadal oscillations on top of that making it difficult to resolve secular trends in temperature — but still it is difficult to argue with the probable effect of reflecting 2% more sunlight — 27 or so watts per square meter — before it reaches the ground at all.
If climate scientists had any sense at all, they would all be establishing an “albedo watch” because this is gravely concerning. Yes, global albedo peaked in the 1980s and early 1990s (possibly coincident with the 20th century grand solar maximum, possibly coincidentally). Yes, it plunged along with the solar cycle, again, possibly coincidentally as none of the various proposed solar-albedo couples are proven and this could be completely spurious. But the variation of the albedo itself by whatever mechanism is a fact, and it is a fact that we should all find very worrisome indeed. And if and when we take our gaze away from our own carbon-based navels, perhaps we will…
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