Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Since I was a kid I’ve been reading stories about “The Year Without A Summer”. This was the summer of 1816, one year after the great eruption of the Tambora volcano in Indonesia. The Tambora eruption, in April of 1815, was so huge it could be heard from 2,600 km away (1,600 miles). The stories were always about how the following summer was outrageously cold. Supposedly, the summer was so cold it was like having no summer at all.
Being a suspicious fellow, I got to thinking about that, and I realized I’d never seen any actual temperature data for the year of 1816. So I went off to find some early temperature data. I started with the ECA dataset, and downloaded the Daily Mean Temperature TG (162Mb). That revealed five stations with daily temperature records with starting dates before 1816—Stockholm, Bologna, Milan, Praha-Klementinum, and Hohenpeissenberg.
So once again, I found myself playing “Spot the Volcanoes”, as in my previous post on this subject. When I wrote that post, I hadn’t been able to spot the smaller eruptions of Pinatubo and other modern volcanoes, but Tambora was the big cheese, the grand gorgonzola of volcanoes. Surely I could find that one … so here’s the record from Stockholm.
Figure 1. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Stockholm
So the question is, which year is “The Year Without A Summer”? The year indicated by the blue arrow, or the year shown by the green arrow?
Actually, I fear that was a trick question. Here’s the same data, this time with the years indicated.
Figure 2. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Stockholm, including the dates.
As you can see, the 1816 “Year Without A Summer” actually was warmer than a number of other summers in Stockholm. It’s the third peak from the left in the top panel, and was above 20°C. Just in this tiny sample we see some six summers that were cooler than the summer of 1816 in Stockholm …
So, I looked at the other locations. Here are the other four European cities with records that cover the Tambora eruption—Bologna, Milan, Praha-Klementinum, and Hohenpeissenberg. In these, both the upper and lower panels are from the early 1800s. No more trick questions, in all cases, one or the other of the green and blue arrows actually indicates the “Year Without A Summer”.
Figure 3. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Bologna.
Figure 4. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Milan.
Figure 5. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Praha-Klementinum.
Figure 6. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Hohenpeissenberg.
That was all the daily temperature records I could find from that far back. There’s a monthly record from Armagh, in Ireland. Here’s that record.
Figure 6. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Armagh.
I’m sure that you can see the difficulty. If Tambora actually did something to the temperature, you sure couldn’t tell it from these records. Not one of them is readily distinguishable as missing a summer.
In “The Great Tambora Eruption in 1815 and Its Aftermath” (paywalled, Science Magazine, 1984), the author says (emphasis mine):
To Europeans and North Americans, 1816 became known as “the year without a summer” (41). Daily temperatures (especially the daily minimums) were in many cases abnormally low from late spring through early fall; frequent north-west winds brought snow and frost to northern New England and Canada, and heavy rains fell in western Europe. Many crops failed to ripen, and the poor harvests led to famine, disease, and so- cial distress, compounded by the aftermath of the Napoleonic wars.Tambora’s dust veil is often blamed by modern researchers for the cold summer of 1816. The argument given is that the stratospheric dust veil would have absorbed or reflected solar radiation that could otherwise have reached the ground (42). Not all regions,however, experienced abnormally low temperatures, and the preceding winter had generally been mild. Therefore, a few researchers deny that there was any (or at least a strong) connection with the volcano (39,43).
I’m leaning towards the “few researchers” that deny a strong connection with Tambora. What other records do we have? Well, over at KNMI I find the record for Manchester, England:
Figure 6. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in Manchester.
Moving across the Atlantic, here’s the record from New Haven in Connecticut.
Figure 6. Two ten-year periods from the early 1800’s in New Haven, Connecticut.
I’m just not feeling the Tambora love here … where are the records of years without a summer? Or at least of a summer that’s significantly colder than its neighbors?
Don’t get me wrong here. I suspect that generally, the summer of 1816 was a bit colder than most summers. But as the graphs above show, in all of these datasets there are comparable summers within a few decades either side of 1816 that have summers that are as cool, or cooler, than the summer of 1816.
And I would guess that a careful search would reveal some records with cooler summers than the ones I’ve found here. But overall, let me suggest that over the years the Tambora story has gotten greatly exaggerated, just as we do today with our stories of “Cold? You haven’t seen real cold. Why, when I was a young man it was so cold that …”
Conclusions? Well, my main conclusion is what I’ve been saying for some time. The temperature of the earth is not particularly ruled by the changes in how much energy it receives. Tambora cut off a huge amount of sunlight, but the effect was small. Yes, some areas had a summer that was a bit cooler than most summers. And I’m sure there were certain locations where it hit harder than others. But overall? The thermostatic mechanisms of the planet kept Tambora from having a much of a cooling effect.
My best to all. I append all of the figures below, with the dates, so you can see the lack of effect. Note that in many of them, the temperature in 1815 was about the same as 1816 … and that despite the size of the volcano, if there was any effect, it was totally gone by 1817.
w.
If that’s what a really big volcano can do, I’m not impressed. Well, I am impressed, but what’s impressive is the strength of the thermostatic mechanisms that keep the earth’s temperature within a very narrow band. Even a huge volcano can’t put it out of sorts for much more than one summer, and even then not too much.
The place to look for the effect of volcanic eruptions on the climate is in food commodity prices. That is where climate change has its greatest impact on human society. In those records the Tambora eruption is unmissable.
Thomas Jefferson made weather observations during that period in Virginia. Among his findings:
And later in the fall:
I believe Jefferson’s book of weather observations are available someplace.
http://memory.loc.gov/ammem/collections/jefferson_papers/mtjser7.html#vol2
An excellent and interesting reference from a different Willis;
– Monthly Weather Review, Vol.52 No.12, December 1924.
– “The year 1816 – the causes of abnormalities” by Willis I. Milham
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/052/mwr-052-12-0563.pdf
Willis,
In Israel, winter of 91-92 is remembered by us weather freaks as THE winter of all times. That winter broke every record – precipitation, snow, temperature, floods, you name it.
It most obviousely was connected to the Pinatubo eruption in June 1991.
I recall a very mild summer afterwards, and also another very wet winter of 92-93.
Should you not look at the summer of 1815 together with that of 1816. From the experience of the the most recent Icelandic ash cloud which closed down many of Europe’s airports it would not have taken more than 12 months for the effects of Tambura to be felt. Bologna, Manchester, Praha and Hohenpeissenberg seem to fit a picture where there are two successvie years of (marginally) lower temperature), particularly if you swap your blue and green arrows for Praha.
And to take up Baa Humbug’s point – despite having been taken to task by Steve Mosher for having said so in the past – (Tmax + Tmin)/2 does not equate to Tmean when the latter is recorded over the whole 24 hours, except by coincidence.
John West said:
[England crop prices]
1816……..8.89…….5.09…….4.11…….3.29…..4.44……..3.95……..3.48……..220.02…..44.04
1817…….12.16…….6.95…….5.98……3.93……6.33……..5.77……..3.97……..340.82……39.12
You say these prices don’t show crop scarcity. Most of the columns certainly do. From 4.11 to 5.89 is almost a 50% in one year. If beer prices went up like that I’m sure you’d find it significant !!
Note the mild winters that follows the 1821 and 1844 summers.
In the Greenland ice cores there is an unknown volcanic eruption in 1810 thats as large as Tambora.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Greenland_sulfate.png
It also shows up in Leif’s link above.
Dennis Nikols, P. Geo says:
April 15, 2012 at 8:25 am
“Yes when I was a boy not only was it coooold but we had way more snow. Thinking about it, my butt was way closer to the ground too.”
———————
Yes that’s true but, as I recall we used to look for the deepest snow we could find at the bottom of the steepest hill we could find. Plus, we used to have to shovel all that snow. That was a good time to grow up.
Thanks Willis
Always interesting to see your explorations into the evidence.
In his life long research, WJR Alexander found the ~22 year Hale cycle driving major changes in the precipitation/flow records in Southern Africa. “Linkages between solar activity, climate predictability and water resource development” W J R Alexander et al. J. South African Institution of Civil Engineering” • Vol. 49 No. 2 June 2007 pp 32-44
See CROSSROADS by Will Alexander Monday 18 July 2011
(Alexander is making available his complete compilation of all > 100 year data & papers on CD.)
It would be interesting to see if the Hale cycle showed a similar strong correlation with precipitation in the northern hemisphere that impacted memorable agriculture.
(Somewhere I have seen some papers showing the temperate region temperature response is out of phase (opposite?) with the tropical response, so need to distinguish between those regions. e.g. the response of the Nile river being different from the temperate rivers in Southern Africa.)
That raises the question if those major volcanic eruptions happened to coincide with the Hale cycle.
A global change in temperature should show up as changes in the Length Of Day (LOD), and more particularly varying as the derivative of the LOD. i.e., change in temperature changes the tropic-polar temperature difference which changes the winds which changes the LOD. e.g. See Adriano Mazzarella, Sun-Climate Linkage Now Confirmed. Energy & Environment · Vol. 20, No. 1&2, 2009 p 121-128.
PS Scafetta’s cyclic temperature model shows more of a peak temperature near the 1883 Krakato erruption. 1816 to 1883 is 67 years which is just about 3 Hale cycles. Thus the Tambura eruption may have also coincided with a natural temperature peak, or more importantly with a change in precipitation.
Ray Tomes explores evidence for the Hale cycle in English temperature records.
izen says:
April 15, 2012 at 7:59 am
What this demonstrates is just how fragile our agricultural system has been to quite small climate changes.
I’m not sure I follow. Implicit in this is that our fragile agricultural system is under threat?
As a farmer i feel obliged to add my two cents. Last summer in Prince George was so wet that it almost caused a hay shortage. The crops grew but could not be harvested and many fields had standing water virtually all summer. Now, if you check the precipitation records you will find that we received an average rainfall. In the end it was the distribution of rain (almost daily) and the general lack of sun that was to blame. The moral? The crop failures attributed to the volcano could have some merit, even if temperatures were not as low as suggested (last summer the overnight temps were higher than average as opposed to daytime temps). Certainly here in PG last year was virtually without a summer. Just ask my fishing boat.
The effect of Tambora on New England appears to have been to cause periods of short-lived, but (dare we say) unprecedented, cold weather throughout the summer of 1816, which proved
devastating to local agriculture.
Because they were short-lived, the cold snaps did not have a large impact on overall average temperatures, which only goes to prove what a useless statistic average temperature can be. The devil is nearly always in the detail.
I see that Willis misunderstood the phrase since it is obvious that Summer was there that year.It was really referring to unusual unseasonable frosts and sometimes snow that does not normally occur.
But what is being left out is the evidence of absurdly cold spells that rolled in from the North in Canada to hammer some of the Northern States with record cold and snow that normally does not happen at all.
Parts of Northern Europe got it too.
Dr. Stommel researched this concluding that yes there was a minor and regional impact by the massive eruption that caused the perioding freezing that does not occur at all today.
http://wermenh.com/1816.html
His Book:
http://www.amazon.com/Volcano-Weather-Story-Without-Summer/dp/0915160714/ref=tmm_hrd_title_0?ie=UTF8&qid=1334509071&sr=1-2
Then this link shows examples of unusual deep freezing in north America:
Year Without a Summer
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer
Then this one from NASA JPL who also thinks there was a volcanic influence for the unusual weather in 1816:
http://climate.nasa.gov/blogs/index.cfm?FuseAction=ShowBlog&NewsID=183
P. Solar says:
“You say these prices don’t show crop scarcity. Most of the columns certainly do. From 4.11 to 5.89 is almost a 50% in one year. If beer prices went up like that I’m sure you’d find it significant !!”
Well, if you cherry pick years and crops, certainly, you can make it look like there was a significant increase. If you look just a couple years before the example you (cherry)picked the price was 4.53 (1814), so the price went down and then partially back up. That’s why I posted (not too well, no WYSIWYG) the entire decade. Contrary to “izen’s” unsupported assertion and your cherry picked based conclusion, there doesn’t seem to be an un-missable spike in food prices, at least not in England. Look’s to me like Willis has hit the nail quite squarely on the head, once again.
OTPS: I think I just dated myself with “WYSIWYG”.
“England doesn’t seem to have noticed in their food prices:”
Gotta agree with P. Solar — most of the prices given are up 30-50% in 1817. The only decrease is in straw, which could mean more grain was planted but the grain yield was very much lower, or that livestock hadn’t bred very well over the last year so there wasn’t as much demand.
Oops!Mentally insert [ and 7.09 (1813)] after (1814) for above post to make sense. LOL. I had a PEBKAC error.
“First a correction. You say “The Tambora eruption, in April of 1815, was so huge it could be heard from 2,600 km away (1,600 miles). That was the Krakatoa eruption in 1883.”
Ric,
There were a number of Spanish ships near the Islands where Mt Tambora was located. There were also natives in nearby shores. No corrections are needed.
A failed crop killed by frost can still be used for straw.
Rob Crawford says:
“Gotta agree with P. Solar — most of the prices given are up 30-50% in 1817.”
So, the year after the year after the eruption is the one that would be affected?
I have to disagree, taking the whole decade into account, there’s really nothing remarkable in food prices for 1816 (the year without a summer) or 1817 (the year after the year without a summer).
Willis, have you adjusted any of these temperatures yet? If not, there’s your problem. We know that a large volcanic eruption will disrupt the weather. If the empirical data you’ve found doesn’t support what we know, you just need to make some adjustments to the data.
If you would have taken the time to be formally trained in climate science I wouldn’t have to tell you this, now would I?
I think what you have to look for is a nights coldspell in the growing season?
John West says:
April 15, 2012 at 10:07 am
“OTPS: I think I just dated myself with “WYSIWYG”.”
The kids these days with their web GUIs don’t even know that there used to be a thing called WYSIWYG. There are, though, certain desperate attempts at re-gaining it and one day humanity might achieve it again, probably after deciphering the texts of the ancients in the rubble of PARC.
There must have been a huge eruption in 1810, since the 1812 food prices are so high. /sarc
“Rick Werme’s report (above) suggests that the poor harvests in New England were mainly a product of low temperatures. Was there a similar effect in the northern hemisphere post-Krakatoa?”
I don’t think summer time temps were affected as much as winter temps -especially in North America. The infamous Children’s Blizzard and the well documented New York City blizzard occured the following year.
And look for hunger i Scandinavia?