I’ve been watching this with concern, and NOAA just had a press briefing on the issue today. It seems we are headed for the “perfect storm”. The convective outlook from SPC yesterday showed strong potential for Friday/Saturday. Today’s SPC forecast for Friday-Saturday (US Time) is even worse:
Mile Smith (Pres/CEO of Weatherdata) writes at his blog, Meteorological Musings:
Well, we’ve gone from bad to worse with the addition of maxed-out probabilities in eastern Nebraska and the extension of the hatching farther east.
Sixty percent is the highest the numbers can go. If you live in the hatched areas keep up on the weather tomorrow and tomorrow night! Hatched areas are where violent tornadoes may occur along with winds of 75 mph or higher and/or hail 2″ in diameter or larger.
Now, I want to show you an index that can help discern where the strongest tornadoes might be:
A value of “1” is generally considered sufficient for adequate for “significant” (defined by meteorologists as a tornado of F-2 intensity or greater) tornadoes. In this case, values max out at 5 just southwest of Wichita at 7pm Saturday. Do not consider these exact locations. I’m simply trying to establish that both the computer values and the human forecasters consider tomorrow to be a dangerous day.
My advice for tomorrow if you live in one of the moderate or high risk areas? Go about your routine checking the weather every hour or so unless thunderstorms start to approach. At that point, pay continuous attention. Use good sense and you’ll be fine.
Here are the most current tornado safety rules.
If you live in these areas and have hatches, batten them.
BTW Mike has a great book about severe weather:
I recommend his book Warnings: The true story of how science tamed the weather.
I’ve read it, and I’ve lived and experienced much of what he’s written about in the quest to make forecasting, especially severe weather forecasting, more accurate, timely, and specific. For those of us that prefer practical approaches over the rampant speculation on mere wisps of connections to climate, this book is for you.
He says he has another book coming on what went wrong with the Joplin tornado.
For those that want to track storms, may I also suggest this program: StormPredator, which uses the free NWS NEXRAD network to give you alerts and up to date imagery.
From Pull My Finger on April 13, 2012 at 1:50 pm:
Hey you, tell the truth!
FIRST the meteorologists say the doppler radar shows tornadoes are likely coming.
Then they land and tear everything up.
The meteorologists note how they looked like tornadoes on the radar.
THEN the National Weather Service shows up, investigates, and declares it all was really just straight line winds, there were no tornadoes.
Come on, I’ve lived in central Pennsylvania all my life, I learned about the NWS dance routine years ago!
http://research.aerology.com/lunar-declinational-affects-on-tornado-production/
would be a good place to start reading, or maybe;
http://research.aerology.com/aerology-analog-weather-forecasting-method/
The Rossby waves and resultant jet streams are the result of the lunar declinational tides in the atmosphere, nobody looked for a connection to the lunar declinational tides because they were all focused on just the light phase relationship, which shifts in and out of phase with the declination.
The rest of the story is no more funds were allocated to lunar studies past 1950, when peer review was started. The insinuation that it was “Astrology or numerology” has always been a strong deterrent to keep funding away from the “Cycle-manics”.
http://research.aerology.com/natural-processes/lunar-tidal-movie-sample/
gives a sample view of the synchronicity. Not enough credit is given to the ionic conduction of storms and the weather in general, it should be studied more if the funding could be found.
Richard Holle
Despite comments above, we also get the “green sky” every once in a while. Once, stange as it may seem, I saw a single lightning strike that cleared the color back to normal. Very weird, and I only remember seeing it once, I thought thet ionization may have had something to do with it. Best of luck, Middle America! We’re rooting for you!
Larry Ledwick (hotrod ) says:
April 13, 2012 at 6:39 pm
I did find this explaination that makes sense. Severe thunderstorms are always very tall clouds, this answer implies that the coloration is an artifact of the depth (height) of the storm cloud, and its illumination. Hence very tall powerful thunderstorms would be most likely to take on a green cast in the proper lighting.
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Why_is_the_sky_green_before_hail
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Thanks, Larry, that explanation makes sense. A 12 mile high bank of storm clouds is a very scary concept! Although, the wiki explanation refers to light refraction around sunset, whereas I understand that Katrina hit Lousiana around 5am. I am not sure when people claimed to have seen the greenish light, whether it was late in the day before or early in the morning just before it hit.
Anyway, the message is clear. As a PP said, green light very, very bad.
Was taught by my elders how to skywatch when just a little shaver and green sky always meant hail. .. true then and true now.
2:25am and the tornado sirens are blaring… it’s calm outside- check on the weather radar and turn on the news channel- main body of storm has clearly moved to the north by some distance- tornado 15 miles north… the guy with his finger on the alarm trigger goes too far.
Maybe the neighborhood can get back to sleep and maybe the alarm guy’s itchyfinger gets a clue.
@Luther Wu says:
April 14, 2012 at 12:45 am
“2:25am and the tornado sirens are blaring… it’s calm outside- check on the weather radar and turn on the news channel- main body of storm has clearly moved to the north by some distance- tornado 15 miles north… the guy with his finger on the alarm trigger goes too far.
Maybe the neighborhood can get back to sleep and maybe the alarm guy’s itchyfinger gets a clue.”
You bring up an important point, Luther. Here in the Western East or Eastern-most Midwest (Ohio, for anyone griping that’s it’s in the Midwest) the tornado warnings are being overused, IMO. When following local radar when there is bad weather about, IMO the NWS and broadcast media are shouting WARNING to too wide of an area. Nothing happens in 7/8ths or 8/8ths of the WARNING area and I worry that crying wolf is desensitizing people to when conditions really warrant duck-and-cover actions.
I always thought that tornado watches meant conditions were right for tornado formation, and that level of alert could cover a broad area. A tornado warning was only issued when funnel clouds had been spotted.Anyhow, I agree that it seems there is a tendency to hit the siren button more often than necessary.
Aside; same holds true for “WHITE DEATH IS COMING” snowstorm warnings where we get only 4″-6″ of snow. My theory is that it’s a conspiiracy by Big Grocery to get rid of overstocks of bread and milk.
“Myth: 3. A green sky is an indicator that a tornado is coming” .. Truth: NOT necessarily …
I don’t think anyone is saying the green sky indicates 100% chance of a tornado hitting. What they’re saying is that the green sky indicates conditions are very favorable for the formation of tornadoes, because the taller a cumulonimbus cloud gets, the more powerful the updrafts in it must be.
And when it comes to the smell, if you’ve lived in Tornado Alley for 50+ years like I have, you damned well know it. You step outside and it “smells like tornado”. Next thing you know, the NWS has issued at least a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for your area. After this happens a few dozen times, you learn to associate the smell with the danger.
Richard,
Comparing prediction with actual for the date 4-13-2012 (just yesterday, Friday), there is a BIG discrepancy in the precipitation depiction.
Basically, storms (with 65 dBZ and heavier indicated precip) ‘trained’ from the vicinity of FDR (Frederick Oklahoma in SW OK) to OKC (central OK) for a good part of the day and into the evening; this is not depicted in the aerology website precipitation depiction … is there something I’m overlooking in comparing ‘actual’ and ‘predicted’?
These storms were not insignificant (simple squalls/squall lines, but rather tornadic supercells); several of them spawned tornadoes which were caught on video by storm chasers.
.
H.R. says:
April 14, 2012 at 5:47 am
…
You bring up an important point, Luther. Here in the Western East or Eastern-most Midwest (Ohio, for anyone griping that’s it’s in the Midwest) the tornado warnings are being overused, IMO. When following local radar when there is bad weather about, IMO the NWS and broadcast media are shouting WARNING to too wide of an area. Nothing happens in 7/8ths or 8/8ths of the WARNING area and I worry that crying wolf is desensitizing people to when conditions really warrant duck-and-cover actions.
I always thought that tornado watches meant conditions were right for tornado formation, and that level of alert could cover a broad area. A tornado warning was only issued when funnel clouds had been spotted.Anyhow, I agree that it seems there is a tendency to hit the siren button more often than necessary.
This is a no-win scenario for mets. Warnings are issued when a tornado has been sighted or otherwise confirmed in the target warning area. They should always be heeded, because, as great as technology is, the advance warning time of when a funnel may drop is still measured in seconds to a very, very few minutes. Predictability of exactly where out of a supercell a tornado will drop is still mostly a crap-shoot, hence the short warning time. Duck and cover may not be warranted, but certainly a frequent weather eye certainly is. At night, its made worse by both darkness, and the very real possibility (day or night, but most acute at night) that the tornado might be rain-wrapped, meaning it can’t be readily seen in the mass of falling rain around it. Not all stand out by themselves out on the hook.
A watch means only that conditions are favourable for the formation. Upon confirmation of a real one, or conditions so imminent, then a warning will be issued.
The problem for mets is the very short available warning time. There’s no “cry wolf” scenario – if the sirens go off, you can bet there’s a good reason to be concerned. Will it pass over your head? Probably not, but no met/alarm manager wants the failure of not issuing a warning that result is folk’s deaths on his conscience.
In a word: no. (I do recall, just this last week how clean and or sweet things smelled after all our storm activity was over with though but more on this below.)
This ‘tornado’ smell are due to other factors ‘construed’ and or conflated to mean ‘tornado’ …. it would appear to be one of those “old wives’s tale” passed on down from generation to generation like the advice to ‘open the windows’ to equalize pressure when expecting a tornado.
In the past, I’ve had wall clouds pass directly overhead: no green and no odor. (Wall Cloud is the precursor to funnel or tornado; it is the lowering from the base of a tornadic cell due to lowered pressure (density altitude) and the formation of visible ‘cloud’ material due to condensation.)
Simple attribution as to the odor could be from dirt, soil, attic dust, blown-in insulation etc, roofing material and other matter kicked-up/sucked-up into the atmosphere by an ‘active’ tornado; have you thought of that as a possible reason for ‘odd’ smells after a confirmed tornadic event?
Another reason, unexplored, would be due to the lightning experienced during a Thunderstorm, but take note, simple Thunderstorm does not equate to tornado.
You are aware of NitrogenCycle.html#Atmospheric_Fixation”>atmospheric fixation of Nitrogen by lightning are you not?
.
The link to ‘Nitrogen fixing by lightning’ above somehow became mangled, here’s just the link by itself:
http://users.rcn.com/jkimball.ma.ultranet/BiologyPages/N/NitrogenCycle.html#Atmospheric_Fixation
One should should also be aware that (at least here in Texas) the local municipal authorities are responsible for ‘pulling the switch’ to sound the sirens; last week the ‘switch’ was pulled in my city and the activity was well to the south in the county south of us … nothing but gray skies and wind for another half an hour before we saw rain even.
We have had sirens ‘pulled’ on the word of untrained ‘spotters’ mistaking scud and other mis-identified cloud formations; the city has the ultimate responsibility for the sirens … they would rather ‘error on the side of caution’ than not.
.
Thanks Anthony, my sister moved to Kansas about 10 years ago.She doesn’t like the weather there – big hailstones, she’s had her windshield replaced three times. Once she got stuck on a bridge that had been undermined in a flash flood. She wants to move back to California. I told her things had gotten kind of expensive here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzOWTNMruXU
_Jim says:
April 14, 2012 at 6:37 am
“”Richard,
Comparing prediction with actual for the date 4-13-2012 (just yesterday, Friday), there is a BIG discrepancy in the precipitation depiction.
Basically, storms (with 65 dBZ and heavier indicated precip) ‘trained’ from the vicinity of FDR (Frederick Oklahoma in SW OK) to OKC (central OK) for a good part of the day and into the evening; this is not depicted in the aerology website precipitation depiction … is there something I’m overlooking in comparing ‘actual’ and ‘predicted’?
These storms were not insignificant (simple squalls/squall lines, but rather tornadic supercells); several of them spawned tornadoes which were caught on video by storm chasers.””
Reply——————————–
These maps are composites of past precipitation from three previous cycles when the lunar declination and the inner planet positions were the same, the similarity between those three cycles and this one 6558 days later is off a little in the location of the paths of the precipitation [due to the turbulence normal to such a large system] but the type of weather is the same over much of the same areas. All I am trying to show is the composite of the past cycles is almost the same as this cycle on a day to day basis. This cycle there is a conjunction with Saturn coming up on the 15th that is increasing the intensity and spread of the cyclonic weather patterns above what the past patterns show. This is what you are noting, I am using these outer planet excursions of the repeating patterns to develop algorithms to correct for the outer planet interferences so I can improve the future forecasts. There is no modeling, just combined real raw data that shows what it shows. I am trying to learn from it as it progresses.
In my upgraded site I will be showing the composite of the last FOUR cycles in higher resolution so that the type of precip in the past will be more visible by the higher resolution rather than the large smoothed blobs you see now.
Paul Coppin says:
April 14, 2012 at 6:48 am
“…This is a no-win scenario for mets. Warnings are issued
when a tornado has been sighted or otherwise confirmed in the target warning area…
…The problem for mets is the very short available warning time.There’s no “cry wolf” scenario – if the sirens go off, you can bet there’s a good reason to be concerned. Will it pass over your head? Probably not, but no met/alarm manager wants the failure of not issuing a warning that result is folk’s deaths on his conscience.”
________________________
This area wasn’t even close to the target warning area- it was abundantly clear that there was no storm, here. This was a .cry wolf scenario and the metro officials in charge of warnings do it every storm- without fail. A storm not on a track through the city, but 25 miles away spawns a tornado- on go the sirens. This isn’t my first rodeo.
Caution is required when lives of others are at stake, but what’s the limit? What’s the point of issuiong warnings for unaffected areas? How do you think a populace reacts after years of exposure to false alarms?
One of the great rationalizations that the AGW propagandists have come to rely on, because their ‘scientific proof’ is demonstrably separate from reality, is that “it’s best to err on the side of caution”. Look at the price we are paying for that line of thinking.
It’s possible that a meteorite might plunge through your roof at any second… are you going to live in a bunker underground, “just in case”?
I forgot to add… the Oklahoma City metropolitan area is huge, at over 2300 square miles. It’s
unnecessary to light the alarms in the whole metro area, just because there is a tornado spotted across town, especially when the alarms go off in an area completely out of the storm’s
track and at 2:30 in the fargin’ a.m., because you’re gonna have to contend with a bunch of cranky old guys like me who need a nap.
If you want the raw data here are the csv files used to construct the new four cycle maps soon to be plotted onto my site;
CSV files for the composite map data from February through July 2012;
http://www.aerology.com/Feb2012-Jul31.rar
The software is still being tweeked at this time will release when done and site on line.
Regarding the “cry wolf” problem with tornado sirens: It seems to me that two levels of siren alerts would be helpful: A pulsating or intermittent alert and a steady alert, the latter being more urgent. I think this is what they used to do with air raid sirens, at least in some places.
[My my … why are cities investing in outdoor sirens and other means of alerting the public (like reverse 911 systems and cell-phone warning systems) then?]
I would guess because an overwhelming segment of the population have their ignorant heads buried in their cell phones or on their way to buy some piece of commercialism !!!!!
OK – I get it. Everyone who is in an area where dangerous tornadoes are forecast should heed the warnings and seek shelter.
However, I had to give pause when I saw this photo caption under the forecast map at weather.com:
“As the sun sets on a Central Plains evening filled with tornado activity, an even more dangerous element is added to the severe weather: darkness”
Darkness is dangerous?… even MORE DANGEROUS than the high speed winds and projectiles that result from a tornado strike?
http://www.weather.com/ (as of 9PM EST)
From experience I can validate the need to act quickly. I was in a Waffle House off I-75 just north of Cinncinati, when the radio annouced a tornado watch for the area. The restaurant manager made us all move to the back of the restaurant, which was windowsless. As we did, the sky went green and then dark, and all h3ll broke loose. Time was mayby 1 minute. When things settled down, we discovered the highway sign and peaked portion of the Waffle House roof was gone. An oak about 4 foot in diameter on the nearby VOA transmitting facility looked like a toothpick that had been broken by twisting. BTW, although I realize the plural of anecdote is not data, when there is enough anecdotal material, it bears serious investigating. It strikes me the green light effect qualifies.
REPLY: I’ve been to that Waffle House, and I acted quickly and got the heck outta there! The VOA station is impressive.- Anthony
@rogerkni says:
April 14, 2012 at 2:47 pm
“Regarding the “cry wolf” problem with tornado sirens: It seems to me that two levels of siren alerts would be helpful: A pulsating or intermittent alert and a steady alert, the latter being more urgent. I think this is what they used to do with air raid sirens, at least in some places.”
Now that makes sense!