From the Harvard School of Public Health , news that an extra 1°C temperature swing in summer will kill the elderly.
Summer temperature variability may increase mortality risk for elderly with chronic disease
Large day-to-day variations in temperature could result in thousands more deaths per year
Boston, MA – New research from Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) suggests that seemingly small changes in summer temperature swings—as little as 1°C more than usual—may shorten life expectancy for elderly people with chronic medical conditions, and could result in thousands of additional deaths each year. While previous studies have focused on the short-term effects of heat waves, this is the first study to examine the longer-term effects of climate change on life expectancy.
The study will be published online April 9, 2012 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
“The effect of temperature patterns on long-term mortality has not been clear to this point. We found that, independent of heat waves, high day to day variability in summer temperatures shortens life expectancy,” said Antonella Zanobetti, senior research scientist in the Department of Environmental Health at HSPH and lead author of the study. “This variability can be harmful for susceptible people.”
In recent years, scientists have predicted that climate change will not only increase overall world temperatures but will also increase summer temperature variability, particularly in mid-latitude regions such as the mid-Atlantic states of the U.S. and sections of countries such as France, Spain, and Italy. These more volatile temperature swings could pose a major public health problem, the authors note.
Previous studies have confirmed the association between heat waves and higher death rates. But this new research goes a step further. Although heat waves can kill in the short term, the authors say, even minor temperature variations caused by climate change may also increase death rates over time among elderly people with diabetes, heart failure, chronic lung disease, or those who have survived a previous heart attack.
The researchers used Medicare data from 1985 to 2006 to follow the long-term health of 3.7 million chronically ill people over age 65 living in 135 U.S. cities. They evaluated whether mortality among these people was related to variability in summer temperature, allowing for other things that might influence the comparison, such as individual risk factors, winter temperature variance, and ozone levels. They compiled results for individual cities, then pooled the results.
They found that, within each city, years when the summer temperature swings were larger had higher death rates than years with smaller swings. Each 1°C increase in summer temperature variability increased the death rate for elderly with chronic conditions between 2.8% and 4.0%, depending on the condition. Mortality risk increased 4.0% for those with diabetes; 3.8% for those who’d had a previous heart attack; 3.7% for those with chronic lung disease; and 2.8% for those with heart failure. Based on these increases in mortality risk, the researchers estimate that greater summer temperature variability in the U.S. could result in more than 10,000 additional deaths per year.
In addition, the researchers found the mortality risk was 1% to 2% greater for those living in poverty and for African Americans. The risk was 1% to 2% lower for people living in cities with more green space.
Mortality risk was higher in hotter regions, the researchers found. Noting that physiological studies suggest that the elderly and those with chronic conditions have a harder time than others adjusting to extreme heat, they say it’s likely these groups may also be less resilient than others to bigger-than-usual temperature swings.
“People adapt to the usual temperature in their city. That is why we don’t expect higher mortality rates in Miami than in Minneapolis, despite the higher temperatures,” said Joel Schwartz, professor of environmental epidemiology at HSPH and senior author of the paper. “But people do not adapt as well to increased fluctuations around the usual temperature. That finding, combined with the increasing age of the population, the increasing prevalence of chronic conditions such as diabetes, and possible increases in temperature fluctuations due to climate change, means that this public health problem is likely to grow in importance in the future.”
Support for the study was provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences.
“Summer Temperature Variability and Long-term Survival Among Elderly People with Chronic Disease,” Antonella Zanobetti, Marie S. O’Neill, Carina J. Gronlund, and Joel D. Schwartz, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, online April 9, 2012.
Visit the HSPH website for the latest news, press releases and multimedia offerings.
Harvard School of Public Health (http://www.hsph.harvard.edu ) is dedicated to advancing the public’s health through learning, discovery, and communication. More than 400 faculty members are engaged in teaching and training the 1,000-plus student body in a broad spectrum of disciplines crucial to the health and well being of individuals and populations around the world. Programs and projects range from the molecular biology of AIDS vaccines to the epidemiology of cancer; from risk analysis to violence prevention; from maternal and children’s health to quality of care measurement; from health care management to international health and human rights. For more information on the school visit: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu
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Paging Hugh Pepper! Paging Hugh Pepper! Paging Dr. Pepper!
The skeptics aren’t buying. Need a positive plug for this paper, stat!
;o)
Does that mean that Florida and Hawaii are becoming the ‘Soylent Green’ states of the nation?
“But people do not adapt as well to increased fluctuations around the usual temperature.”
So my programmable thermostat is going to kill me? Any good lawyers out there – I see a great class action lawsuit against Honeywell. /sarc
“…the researchers estimate that greater summer temperature variability in the U.S. could result in more than 10,000 additional deaths per year.”
Do those deaths occur before or after taking into account air conditioning failures due to rolling blackouts caused by shutting down coal-fired power plants across the country? And do they take into account the effects of higher energy costs due to carbon taxes and expensive green energy? This is a case where the “cure” is much worse than the “disease” and will cause far more deaths. I wish someone would do a study on that.
If the choice comes down to increasing our carbon footprint to provide adequate air conditioning for the elderly or just giving them a pain killer, which option do you think Obama, Hansen, and other eco-nuts would choose?
Louis says:
April 10, 2012 at 1:43 pm
“If the choice comes down to increasing our carbon footprint to provide adequate air conditioning for the elderly or just giving them a pain killer, which option do you think Obama, Hansen, and other eco-nuts would choose?”
Wasn’t that Question #43 on the Science Literacy Test? I missed that one.
I chose “A. Provide adequate air conditioning” but the correct answer was “C. Give the old geezers a permanent chill pill.”
Would you rather be a billionaire or a diabetic? All billionaires have to die, but only 5% of diabetics!
Increased variablity in temperatures alsmost certainly is associated with more frequent frontal storm systems and pressure changes. Their automatic “correlation is causation” for temperature cannot be assumed. It could just as easily be the pressure change. I’ve always heard stories about old or injured joints becoming painful due to the pressure change as weather fronts aproach.
The warmist’s keep telling us the polar regions are most succeptable to AGW according to the models. Well if that is true, then the temperature difference from equator to poles that drives the frontal systems will be less and there temperature variablity will lessen. My recommendation if the correlation in the paper is real, is throw some more coal in those power plants. The vulnerable elderly will see cheaper food from more plant food in the air, cheaper air conditioning, and fewer and less intense frontal systems. At least the first two are true.
You should only purchase free-range or locally grown Soylent Green (R)
“even minor temperature variations caused by climate change may also increase death rates…”
Yeah, right. I am in my sixties and the husband in his seventies. This last week the temp has gone from 30F to near 80F (-1C to 27C) We routinely work outside all summer when the temp is 90 to 100+F and the humidity is sky high. We are also probably in a lot better physical shape compared to these Ivory tower types.
If they are so darned concerned about the elderly then they would make very sure our energy is dirt cheap! Instead the USA and Australia are shipping our coal (using diesel fuel) to China to manufacture goods that will then be shipped back (using diesel fuel) to be sold in our countries.
This not only increases pollution it wastes fuel and wipes out jobs.
Talk about complete and utter insanity! After reading this it is evident that pollution/CO2 foot print has nothing what ever to do with the EPA’s stand on CAGW.
Massachusetts is the North Korea of the United States. My advice is not to elect any one from that state in the near future.
I wonder. Does this model imply that James Hansen goes round all their houses, turns off their air conditioning, and opens their windows? He already did it to the elected representatives of the people. 🙂
The biggest laugher in the whole paper: “Finally, we found evidence that cardiovascular deaths, especially cardiac arrest deaths, show much larger increases on extremely cold days than other mortality causes.”
As one who grew up in Minnesota where things can get cold and snowy, every winter storm was accompanied by numerous warnings to people, especially older gentlement to take it easy shovelling snow. Most snow storms, especially early in the season, were followed by clear cold weather. After every one the newspapers and news stations ran stories on older guys suffering heart attacks while shovelling snow.
As far as the temperatures go, that one sentence destroys the whole case they are trying to make. When it comes to temperature, cold kills lots of people fast, for a variety of reasons. High temperatures take days and can be easily ameliorated by affordable airconditiong. Every summer has a story or two about an old couple being found dead three days in a closed, unairconditioned apartment because they couldn’t afford an A/C unit and were too debilitated to walk a mile or two to a hospital or some place where they could keep cool for free.
The other laugher is the use of Medicare and Medicaid data as a source of data. The quality of the data is highly suspect since it is only connected incidentally in the course of payments. The fraud rate in Medicare/Medicaid is high, at least as high as the variability in the temperatures.
The paper makes no mention of how they determined cause and effect with so many variables that could affect the cause of death. It’s a correlation, not an analysis of causes.
“If the choice comes down to increasing our carbon footprint to provide adequate air conditioning for the elderly or just giving them a pain killer, which option do you think Obama, Hansen, and other eco-nuts would choose?”
Hansen would choose a larger speaking fee. After 8-12 hours of first class travel.
Obama would choose a two week Hawaiian vacation. With wife on a separate 747. And his dog in a Lear Jet.
The rest of the econuts would choose a fund filled week in Rio!
Good observation. The mortality rate flatlined quite early in Earth’s history. The science on that was settled a very long time ago, and the consensus goes to the mortality alarmists and solidly against the mortality deniers. If only climate science were this easy.
Bingo! The first of 141 comments in this thread is leadoff home run. I was all set to slice and dice the utter insanity of this ‘study’ from the idiotic ivory tower eggheads up in Boston Mass but MattN already cut their legs off with one simple sentence.
So I’ll just mention this one thing. Where do people go when they are cursed with chronic health problems? Hmmmm. Perhaps we might ask this question to the UK born carpet-bagger PM of Australia, a green eco-Nazi who no doubt supports the thrust of this propaganda, whose parents faced this very question many years ago and moved their ailing child many degrees of latitude south towards the equator to thrive in a climate many degrees warmer. Oh, the irony. It burns.
To our friends down under … Seriously, if she ever opens her mouth about this subject just ram this irony right down her throat.
Harvard said:
Mortality risk was higher in hotter regions, the researchers found. Noting that physiological studies suggest that the elderly and those with chronic conditions have a harder time than others adjusting to extreme heat, they say it’s likely these groups may also be less resilient than others to bigger-than-usual temperature swings.
===========================================================================
and when there is an extreme fall in temperature in winter, the “less resilient” also have a harder time, probably more so. We know that: the unhealthy have a hard time, period. That’s why we care for them, and air-condition the hospitals.
The study is meaningless.
JohnH says:
April 10, 2012 at 3:58 am
“And assuming you believe in AGW, where is the study showing the reduction in deaths due to warmer winters. Usual biased rubbish”
But..But..
Global warming doesn’t preclude colder winters !
We may get extremes: Colder winters and warmer summers !
In any case, isn’t that what greenies want ?
Oldies dying from the cold AND from the hot ?
Gottum both ways.
Throw-in a healthy dose of oral contraceptives and Win-Win !
As a UK pensioner I am far more concerned about any fall in temperature. Heating costs here thanks to climate change levies and greedy gas companies with no competition from coal have pushed prices through the roof.
If the world is in so much danger surely it is not too much to ask that climate scientists face an external examiner as I have become too cynical to ever trust any self regulated body. Not once in my life has total trust been rewarded by total integrity. Peer reviewed science is untested science in my book. Freely available scientific information is real science even when I really cannot understand fully it as is the case with relativity mathematics.
Extreme temperature variations on a particular day or series of days can be expected to be accompanied by increases in mortality, particularly in vulnerable populations. Futher, in any given season, short term temperature extermes can be expected to be encountered that will increase mortality during that interval, Statistically, howewver, those extremes will average out to a much smaller average fluctuation – i.e., 1 degree C – over the course of a summer or winter. For example, a heat wave of 10 days that is 9 degrees above normal might average out to a 1 degree average increase for an otherwise normal, up and down, 90-day summer. Mortality duiring the heat wave, however, will spike, and be attributed to the 1 degree of average variation by the Harvard folks. However, the supposed increase in mortality is not a result of a variation in average termperature, but simply a function of mortality associated with extreme temperature conditions that are present in almost any season.
How many people are killed every year by incompetent and dishonest researchers?
When you get to my age you may recall that when you were young a number of your friends died in car or motor cycle accidents. Sadly, those who were lost in armed conflict were of the same age group. You will also realise that over the last decade or two almost all of your remaining friends have already died of old age. You will hope to dodge the hurdles of cancer, diabetes and heart disease, but old age is going to get you in the end. Of the many hundreds of friends and acquaintances that I have known over the years I never came across one whose demise suggested that it was the warm weather that did for him.
Here in Canberra, Australia, the diurnal temperature range is often 20º C or more. In the 60 years I’ve lived here, no deaths have been attributed to this.
Here in Canberra, Australia, the diurnal temperature range is often 20ºC or more. In the 60 years I have lived her as an adult I have never heard of this being a cause of death.
So, they are proposing shutting off the AC to reduce the emissions from the power stations, right?