Global Temperature Report: March 2012
- U.S. hits record highs in March,
- Iowa is ‘warmest’ place on Earth
- Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.13 C per decade
March temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp.: +0.11 C (about 0.20 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.13 C (about 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.09 C (about 0.16 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March.
Tropics: -0.11 C (about 0.20 degrees Fahrenheit) below 30- year average for March.
February temperatures (revised):
Global Composite: -0.11 C below 30-year average
Northern Hemisphere: -0.01 C below 30-year average
Southern Hemisphere: -0.21 C below 30-year average
Tropics: -0.28 C below 30-year average
(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average
(1981-2010) for the month reported.)
Notes on data released April 3, 2012:
Compared to seasonal norms, March 2012 was the warmest month on record in the 48 contiguous U.S. states, according to Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. Temperatures over the U.S. averaged 2.82 C (almost 5.1° Fahrenheit) warmer than normal in March.
The previous U.S. record warm anomaly in the 33-year satellite temperature record was in November 1999, when temperatures over the U.S. averaged 2.22 C (about 4° F)
warmer than the seasonal norm for November. The next warmest March was in 2007, when temperatures over the U.S. were 2.0 C (about 3.2° F) warmer than normal.
While the long-term climate trend over the U.S. has seen warming at the rate of about 0.21 C (almost 0.38° F) per decade during the past one third of a century, March’s temperature anomaly is just that: an anomaly, Christy said. “We see hot and cold spots over the globe every month, and this was just our turn. A one-time anomaly like this is related to weather rather than climate. Weather systems aligned in March in a way that changed normal circulation patterns and brought more warm air than usual to the continental U.S.”
In fact, the warmest spot on the globe in March (compared to seasonal norms) was northeastern Iowa, where temperatures for the month averaged 6.20 C (about 11.2°
F) warmer than normal. By comparison, the winter (DJF) of 2011-2012 averaged
0.94 C (about 1.7° F) warmer than seasonal norms for the continental U.S.
In recent years March has not typically seen temperature extremes over the U.S. The March 2011 temperature for the “lower 48” was at the seasonal norm. The coolest spot on Earth in March 2012 was northwestern Alaska, where temperatures averaged 3.89 C (7.0° F) colder than normal.
Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies are available on-line at: http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
The processed temperature data is available on-line at: vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
As part of an ongoing joint project between UAHuntsville, NOAA and NASA, John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center
(ESSC) at The University of Alabama in Huntsville, and Dr. Roy Spencer, an ESSC principal scientist, use data gathered by advanced microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA satellites to get accurate temperature readings for almost all regions of the Earth. This includes remote desert, ocean and rain forest areas where reliable climate data are not otherwise available.
The satellite-based instruments measure the temperature of the atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about eight kilometers above sea level. Once the monthly
temperature data is collected and processed, it is placed in a “public” computer file for immediate access by atmospheric scientists in the U.S. and abroad.
Neither Christy nor Spencer receives any research support or funding from oil, coal or industrial companies or organizations, or from any private or special interest groups. All of their climate research funding comes from federal and state grants or contracts.
— 30 —
If you want to bet on how warm this year (or March-May, or multiple years) will be, head over to Intrade, at https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventClassId=20
0.1 of a degree, I’m melting, I’m melting, hang on no I’m not, it’s actually snowing outside here in the North of England…
@Alan the Brit:
That’s not just any old weather; that’s English weather.
izen says:
April 4, 2012 at 3:42 am
@- richard verney says: April 4, 2012 at 1:44 am
“I wish that people would not seek to place a linear trend through data which does not suggest a linear response.”
While the data may not suggest a linear trend, the overall rise in temperature requires an addition of extra energy to the climate system.
The only known source of additional energy does follow a linear trend.
The discrepency is usually explained as the interannual varations (mainly ENSO) swamping the small linear trend.
Just to illustrate izen’s point consider this:
CO2 concentrations in 1997 were 363.71 ppm
CO2 concentrations in 2011 were 391.57 ppm
Over the period 1997-2011 CO2 forcing would be ~0.4 w/m2. Even using the IPCC’s quoted sensitivity 3 deg per CO2 doubling we would still only expect an increase of ~0.3 deg. Now, note from the above graph that transition from El Nino to La Nina (e.g 2010-2011) is of the order of 0.5 deg then it’s easy to see how short term fluctuations can mask warming over relatively short periods.
The significance of the March anomaly is that it’s positive yet we are still in a La Nina phase.
izen says: But its not a question of a prefered belief, its a matter of objective data.
Try looking at the derivative (rate of change) of temperature at WFT.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1996/to:2011/derivative/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1996/to:2011/derivative/trend
You will see warming around the beginning of your 1996-2010 period. It crosses zero (no warming) in around 2004 and shows cooling since. Note the scale +0.008 to -0.008 !
Now flip off the OLS selector on one of the plots to see all the data with the OLS linear fit.
Positive dT/dt is warming, negative is cooling.
+ve slope is accelerated warming; -ve is accelerating cooling.
It’s damn near flat and zero ie NO WARMING .
P. Solar says:
April 4, 2012 at 3:31 am
> March 2012 was the warmest month on record in the 48 contiguous U.S. states
> Should that read “the warmest March on record” ?
No, but reading it as “the March 2012 temperature anomaly was the highest on record…” would. Note the article goes on to refer to the November 1999 anomaly as the old warmest month.
My compliments to UAH for not using the “Plate Carrée” projection (lat/long cartesian plot that we usually see here) and using the Mollweide Projection. (Personally I’d prefer a sinusoidal projection because it’s easier to manipulate, but visually Mollweide wins.)
http://www.quadibloc.com/maps/mcy0104.htm
http://www.quadibloc.com/maps/mps0404.htm
http://www.quadibloc.com/maps/mps0401.htm
Oh and any one who thinks we see Mercator projections here – a Mercator projection that includes the poles is infinitely tall! Climate Scientists and fakers don’t use mercator projections!
http://www.quadibloc.com/maps/mcy0101.htm
Global Temperature Report: March 2012
March temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp.: +0.11 C above 30-year average for March.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.13 C above 30-year average for March.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.09 C above 30-year average for March.
Tropics: -0.11 below 30- year average for March.
Yes.
http://volker-doormann.org/images/uah_temp_4_rghi11.gif
It’s no trick, it’s just science.
V.
John Finn…… The warming is natural. The rate of change is no different now than what it was 150 years ago, according to the thermometer record at the start of this natural warming phase… and if paleotemperature proxies can be believed, rates of temperature change both up and down have been faster in the past, so this current warming rate is not alarming…. There is nothing to suggest anything unusual is occurring.
Welcome to Planet Wobegon, where all the science is strong, all the tree rings good looking and all the temperatures are above average.
If it’s a cooler than normal US it’s just the weather and in any case the US is only a small part of the globe. If it’s warmer than normal then it’s a sign of global warming.
Chaucer’s Canterbury Tales begin with a weather forecast:-
Whan that Aprille with his shoures sote
The droghte of Marche hath perced to the rote,
Todays rain was our first since March 4th.
No change since 1389 then?
richard verney says:
April 4, 2012 at 1:44 am
the trend was virtually falt between 1978 and ~1997 and again essentially flat from ~1999 to 2011….
You stuffed that one up. The trend since 1999 is actualy GREATER the the trend for the whole data set.(.15 per decade vs .13)
The flat trend you were after was from 2002.
UAH trends
….with a step change around the super El Nino of 1998. I wish that people would not seek to place a linear trend through data which does not suggest a linear response.
Step change my eye!
UAH 1997-1999
The temp anomaly 12 months either side of the 1998 peak were
1997.25 -0.305
………
1998.25 0.668
……….
1999.25 -0.019
Sure the El Nino caused a spike in temperatures, but that was all but gone 12 months later.
Oh, and what was the trend over that 2 year period? .148, marginaly above the overall trend of .134.
OK, guys and gals, here comes the test. We are almost completely out of La Nina. If we go into an El Nino, will temps rise significantly, as they did in 1998 and in 2007? Or, if they do not rise much, does that mean that the currently weaker sun is capable of nullifying the warming effects of an El Nino?
I’m sort of on the edge of my seat….
Down 0.12 in February. What’s it all about, Alfie? It’s like it’s zigging and zagging or something. Either that or nothing much on balance in the last two months. Or the last 15 years.
Happy day’s
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=82425
“In fact, the warmest spot on the globe in March (compared to seasonal norms) was northeastern Iowa, where temperatures for the month averaged 6.20 C (about 11.2°F) warmer than normal.”
“Is this heaven? No, it’s Iowa.”
Video at:
http://www.imdb.com/video/screenplay/vi459472921/
http://www.totaleclips.com/Player/Bounce.aspx?eclipid=e42917&bitrateid=472&vendorid=102&type=.mp4
Philly had a record warm March in the past 80 years! Except not in in the past 90 years: it was this warm in the early 1920’s.
richard verney
Re: “The assertion that the trend since 1978 is 0.13C per decade is misleading,”
Please do NOT use accuse of moral failures when you provide no evidence for that.
Scientifically, a linear trend (2 parameters) is the simplist model after no change and easiest to compare against the IPCC’s models.
Your step change provides similar to more complex models (2-4 parameters).
Dr. Spencer provides a 13 month centered average and a 3rd order polynomial fit with the caveat:
Compare Scafetta’s natural multicycle model with anthropogenic contribution.
To compare how differing models fit it would help to have both and understanding of the physics behind the models and as full uncertainty information as available for readers to evaluate – especially bias uncertainties where possible. See NIST on uncertainty.
This provides a basis for objectively comparing models without making moral accusations.
The mild winter here in the central Appalachians has been devastating. Unlike most of the last 20 yrs, I actually see a reasonable number of honeybees working early in the season. Also, the most fish in my border stream I’ve seen surviving the winter. Extrapolating that, we’ll be overrun w/honeybees & bluegills/brown trout in just a mere few months!
/sarc, of course
The Northwest certainly did not get this warmth. In fact even April is turning to be cold and wet. In any case, it is typical weather during a El Nina cycle.
“In fact, the warmest spot on the globe in March (compared to seasonal norms) was northeast Iowa….)
They just opened a brand new Native American casino up there. Think there might be a corrolation???
Or is that causation?
I get them confused.
“Strong buy.”
Was a joke, of course!
Yet, there is a well seen upward channel in the temperature and it is still unbroken.
What is the reason – this is another question.
Temperature records in isolated spots are meaningless. Here in Sussex, England last month we wre treated to, apparently, temperatures well into the 20s. My experience was that, yes, in sheltered spots the sun was warm (lovely). However, in the shade the air was blooming CHILLY! And, of course, now it’s even chillier.
Anthea
Ray says:
April 4, 2012 at 7:16 am
The Northwest certainly did not get this warmth. In fact even April is turning to be cold and wet. In any case, it is typical weather during a El Nina cycle.
East of the Cascades experienced one nicely warm day in late February, and 3 or 4 in early March. Cool and cloudy is ongoing and set to continue if the week ahead forecast is consulted. Typical (as mentioned by Ray) but not appreciated.
The map at the top has us right on the -0.5 line — and that seems to be accurate – recognizing that this is lower troposphere data and not surface.