IPCC estimates of sea level rise corroborated, but large ice sheets might endure.
Richard A. Lovett
New Zealand’s mountain ranges could lose up to 85% of their glaciers by 2100. In the most comprehensive study of mountain glaciers and small ice caps to date, a team of US and Canadian scientists has projected that most of the world’s smaller glaciers will be gone by 2100.
New Zealand's mountain ranges could lose up to 85% of their glaciers by 2100. Rob Brown/Minden Pictures/FLPA
The finding confirms that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — the scientific group assessing climate risk — was correct in estimating that by that date, complete or partial melting of smaller glaciers will contribute about the same amount to sea-level rise as meltwater from the giant ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland. The study also confirms that the IPCC was wrong in stating that Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035.
[…]
Radić and coauthor Regine Hock of the University of Alaska in Fairbanks conducted their study by modelling the effect of climate change on every mapped mountain glacier or ice cap, using a middle-of-the-road IPCC scenario for future emissions of greenhouse gases. They then extrapolated the results to account for the fact that while Earth’s total glaciated areas are well mapped, many sections have yet to be divided into individual glaciers.
The projected contribution of each glacier’s partial or complete melting to sea level rise ranges from 8.7 cm to 16 cm, depending on the model. The IPCC’s estimates for sea level rise by 2100 ranged from 7 to 17 centimetres in its 2007 fourth assessment report.
Glaciologist Ted Scambos of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado says it is reassuring that the IPCC and the new study have independently reached the same conclusion. “Both could be wrong, but it gives more confidence that both are approximately right,” he says.
Ok… They used an IPCC emissions scenario. Presumably they used a climate sensitivity which conforms to the so-called consensus (~3.0°C per doubling of pre-industrial CO2). With the IPCC assumptions, they confirmed the IPCC’s projected sea level rise projections as well as predicting the demise of “small glaciers.”
Why is it a headline? They used the IPCC assumptions to model the IPCC results.
I wonder if they incorporated this little item into their model…
Glacier Mass Balance, Cogley 2009. Via NOAA Climate Indicators
It appears that glacier mass balance has been on the increase since 2003… What’s up with that?
The Greenland and Antarctic ice caps have been relatively permanent features throughout the Quaternary (possibly since the Oligocene). If these ice masses melted, it would be a big deal. On the other hand, small glaciers and year-round Arctic sea ice have not been permanent features. They are relatively recent and probably rare features of the Holocene. The geological evidence indicates that the presence these small ice masses is anomalous.
The “small glaciers” of Glacier National Park, Montana may have not existed during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO). The geological evidence suggests that they formed about 7,000 years ago as the Earth’s climate began to cool after the HCO.
History of Glaciers in Glacier National Park
The history of glaciation within current Glacier National Park boundaries spans centuries of glacial growth and recession, carving the features we see today. Glaciers were present within current Glacier National Park boundaries as early as 7,000 years ago but may have survived an early Holocene warm period (Carrara, 1989), making them much older. These modest glaciers varied in size, tracking climatic changes, but did not grow to their Holocene maximum size until the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) around A.D. 1850. While they may not have formed in their entirety during the LIA, their maximum perimeters can be documented through mapping of lateral and terminal moraines. (Key, 2002) The extent and mass of these glaciers, as well as glaciers around the globe, has clearly decreased during the 20th century in response to warmer temperatures.
Climate reconstructions representative of the Glacier National Park region extend back multiple centuries and show numerous long-duration drought and wet periods that influenced the mass balance of glaciers (Pederson et al. 2004). Of particular note was an 80-year period (~1770-1840) of cool, wet summers and above-average winter snowfall that led to a rapid growth of glaciers just prior to the end of the LIA. Thus, in the context of the entire Holocene, the size of glaciers at the end of the LIA was an anomaly of sorts. In fact, the large extent of ice coverage removed most of the evidence of earlier glacier positions by overriding terminal and lateral moraines.
“Mapping of lateral and terminal moraines” clearly demonstrates that the maximum extent of the glaciers was reached during the Little Ice Age (LIA). If “in the context of the entire Holocene, the size of glaciers at the end of the LIA was an anomaly,” how can the current reduced extent be an anomaly? Is there some ideal extent? Something between the LIA maximum and the current extent?
The glaciers of Mt Ranier National Park may date back to the last Pleistocene glaciation, but they also exhibit a similar variability to those of Glacier National Park…
The size of glaciers on Mount Rainier has fluctuated significantly in the past. For example, during the last ice age, from about 25,000 to about 15,000 years ago, glaciers covered most of the area now within the boundaries of Mount Rainier National Park and extended to the perimeter of the present Puget Sound Basin.
Geologists can determine the former extent of glaciers on Mount Rainier by mapping the outline of glacial deposits and by noting the position of trimlines, the distinct boundaries between older and younger forests or between forests and pioneering vegetation. Geologists determine the age of some of the deposits by noting the age of the oldest trees and lichens growing on them and the degree of weatherring on boulders. Between the 14th century and AD 1850, many of the glaciers on Mount Rainier advanced to their farthest went down-valley since the last ice age. Many advances of this sort occurred worldwide during this time period known to geologists as the Little Ice Age. During the Little Ice Age, the Nisqually Glacier advanced to a position 650 feet to 800 feet down-valley from the site of the Glacier Bridge, Tahoma and South Tahoma Glaciers merged at the base of Glacier Island, and the terminus of Emmons Glacier reached within 1.2 miles of the White River Campground.
Retreat of the Little Ice Age glaciers was slow until about 1920 when retreat became more rapid. Between the height of the Little Ice Age and 1950, Mount Rainier’s glaciers lost about one-quarter of their length. Beginning in 1950 and continuing through the early 1980’s, however, many of the major glaciers advanced in response to relatively cooler temperatures of the mid-century. The Carbon, Cowlitz, Emmons, and Nisqually Glaciers advanced during the late 1970’s and early 1980’s as a result of high snowfalls during the 1960’s and 1970’s. Since the early-1980’s and through 1992, however, many glaciers have been thinning and retreating and some advances have slowed, perhaps in response to drier conditions that have prevailed at Mount Rainier since 1977.
The Mt. Ranier glaciers also seem to have reached their maximum Holocene extent during the Little Ice Age.
Guess what other ice feature appears to have also reached its maximum Holocene extent during the Little Ice Age?
Fig. 7 from McKay et al., 2008.
McKay et al., 2008 demonstrated that the modern Arctic sea ice cover is anomalously high and the Arctic summer sea surface temperature is anomalously low relative to the rest of the Holocene…
Modern sea-ice cover in the study area, expressed here as the number of months/year with >50% coverage, averages 10.6 ±1.2 months/year… Present day SST and SSS in August are 1.1 ± 2.4 8C and 28.5 ±1.3, respectively… In the Holocene record of core HLY0501-05, sea-ice cover has ranged between 5.5 and 9 months/year, summer SSS has varied between 22 and 30, and summer SST has ranged from 3 to 7.5 8C (Fig. 7).
If we take the HacCRUT3 instrumental temperature record for the Northern Hemisphere and tack it on to a recent Northern Hemisphere climate reconstruction (Ljungqvist, 2009) and then scale the GISP2 climate reconstruction (Alley, 2004) to fit the instrumental record and reconstruction, we can see that the modern climate is actually rather cool relative to the rest of the Holocene…
Some may take issue with tying the GISP2 reconstruction into a hemispheric data set… But there aren’t any published Northern Hemisphere multi-proxy reconstructions that go back more than a couple of thousand years. There is a Wikipedia global reconstruction that I think was an attempt to minimise the Holocene Climatic Optimum…
The Wiki-reconstruction does attenuate the HCO a bit; but it still shows that the modern climate is down right cold in comparison to the rest of the Holocene.
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Billy Liar
March 19, 2012 2:49 pm
Bobuk says:
March 19, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Sorry wrong country. The Argentière glacier is French.
Eric in CO
March 19, 2012 2:51 pm
I live in Colorado and have been up to the St. Mary’s glacier (really a permanent snow field that people ski on in winter). After seeing how small it is to Alpine Glaciers I’ve been to, I tried to look up historic changes. In my opinion, if AGW was that powerful, this snow field should be gone. It is tiny and it is unchanged as best I can tell. My hypothesis is the glaciers are melting as a result of the end of the little ice age. Once the “easy ice” is gone, they will stabilize. Looks to be the case in a lot of Alpine glaciers which are not changing anymore.
Matt Skaggs
March 19, 2012 2:51 pm
Don Easterbrook extensively documents the same sort of waxing and waning of the glaciers on Mt. Baker in Washington State in his recent book on the geology of the Bellingham area. After you read the book it is not hard to see why Dr. Easterbrook is skeptical of the catastrophism!
Given that Warmist Alarmists appear to be going round in ever decreasing circles…can we hope that some day soon they will disappear up their own a$$holes?
tallbloke
March 19, 2012 2:58 pm
New Zealand’s mountain ranges could lose up to 85% of their glaciers by 2100 say the team.
Was the team using Jim Salinger’s imaginary NZ temperature record?
one of those “Oh My God!” moments?
Apparently the IPCC has really screwed up (no wonder there) it’s estimation of what is causing sea level rise and especially what is causing the “it’s worse than we thought” acceleration of sea level rise in the last fifty years.
Inspired by NOAA’s statement that the recent “speed-bump” decline of sea-level is due to all the rain that fell in Australia because of La Nina, I got thinking, gosh, if just a few rain-falls could affect sea-level that much – what is the affect on sea-level of global aquifer depletion?
Whoa!! Look at this! Global groundwater depletion leads to sea level rise
Because most of the groundwater released from the aquifers ultimately ends up in the world’s oceans, it is possible to calculate the contribution of groundwater depletion to sea level rise. This turned out to be 0.8 mm per year, which is a surprisingly large amount when compared to the current sea level rise of 3.3 mm per years as estimated by the IPCC. It thus turns out that almost half of the current sea level rise can be explained by expansion of warming sea water, just over one quarter by the melting of glaciers and ice caps and slightly less than one quarter by groundwater depletion. Previous studies have identified groundwater depletion as a possible contribution to sea level rise. However, due to the high uncertainty about the size of its contribution, groundwater depletion is not included in the latest IPCC report. This study confirms with higher certainty that groundwater depletion is indeed a significant factor.
Wada, Y., L. P.H. van Beek, C. M. van Kempen, J. W.T.M. Reckman, S. Vasak, and M.F.P. Bierkens (2010), Global depletion of groundwater resources, Geophysical Research Letters doi:10.1029/2010GL044571, in press.
LazyTeenager
March 19, 2012 3:06 pm
Why is it a headline? They used the IPCC assumptions to model the IPCC results.
————
It’s funny how David Middleton is such a genius but can’t answer these trivial questions for himself.
It’s simple really. There is a big stretch between an emissions scenario and the response of glaciers to that temperature regime. It seems that this paper is attempting to fill that really really big gap in understanding.
“The projected contribution of each glacier’s partial or complete melting to sea level rise ranges from 8.7 cm to 16 cm, depending on the model. The IPCC’s estimates for sea level rise by 2100 ranged from 7 to 17 centimetres in its 2007 fourth assessment report.”
———————————————————————————————————————-
Boy Howdy!
Just taking what is presented in this glacier melt report, sea level rise by 2100 will be in the range of 3 to 7 inches. That ain’t much, especially when compared to earlier IPCC estimates of up to five feet, and Gore and Hansen estimates of twenty or more feet. A maximum of 7 inches is very close to the measured rise of the twentieth century, and of course is far below the average of over two feet per century since the end of the last Ice Age.
Where’s the beef!? Or mutton, since this has a New Zealand flavor.
Marian
March 19, 2012 3:11 pm
“Dave says:
March 19, 2012 at 1:33 pm
So the prediction are in complete agreement with the IPCC predictions”
LOL. That’s why the IPCC stands for International Prediction of Climate Change. 🙂
Really, how is this any different than getting your palms read, Tarot cards read, or having a soothsayer read a crystal ball? Those are all modelling too. Modelling the future based on a sequence of Tarot cards.
LazyTeenager
March 19, 2012 3:16 pm
David Middleton says
It appears that glacier mass balance has been on the increase since 2003… What’s up with that?
—————
Here I go again explaining stuff I thought everyone knew.
Glacier mass balance depends on the rate of accumulation above the snow line versus the flow and melting at the snowline.
So inceasing temperatures has 2 effects.
1. Increased melting at the edges. The snow line moves to higher altitudes.
2. Increased humidity leading to greater snow deposition.
So warming in its early stages can increase the mass of ice, but reduce the area of ice coverage. Eventually sometime in the future the area for low lying glaciers will become zero.
I hope that David can understand all that cos he is a genius. I’m sure the ordinary WUWT readership has no problems at all understanding it either, if they wanted to.
James Allison
March 19, 2012 3:24 pm
There is no doubt three main glaciers of NZ South Island (Franz Joseph, Fox and Tasman glaciers) have all been retreating since the LIA. It will be interesting to see whether there will be any short term recovery due to seemingly larger annual snowfalls onto the southern alps during the last 10 years compared with the 80’s and 90’s. I say seemingly cos its based on personal observation as a keen skier rather than relying on any data produced by NZ climate organisation NIWA of the 7 series adjustment infamy. Which amazingly is still prominently displayed on their website. Oh the arrogance of Government Departments eh?
Let’s not forget that the New Zealand data handlers were the first to be caught warming the temperature data and doing it more than any other group. They really wanted to be number one in the warming race.
So, with that and the IPCC peer-reviewed junk science, all of their wishes and predictions will be for everything to melt, even their brains.
“Credibility! Huh! We don’t need no stink in’ credibility! Stupid Gringo!
timebandit
March 19, 2012 3:26 pm
‘New Zealand’s mountain ranges could lose up to 85% of their glaciers by 2100. ‘
Naa… Inventive Kiwi’s will shoot down to Franz Joseph Glacier, chip a bit off, put it in their chilly bins then take ’em home and put ’em in their freezers…!!!
Not circular reasoning: straightforward If A then B. Except that “A” is considered certain.
Therein lies the debate: is A certain (and settled)?
Back in 1980 I worked with engineers who modelled the value of oil reserves at Texaco in Canada, based on an in-house price index for oil. It postulated $200/bbl in 1980 dollars by the year 2000. The conclusion was that it was more profitable to NOT produce, to leave the oil in the ground for another 20 years, than to take the money in 1980. The executive at the time almost laughed: unlike the IPCC, they understood the vagaries of the official projections, and the uncertainty of model outcomes.
Today the model is king. Those executives would be firing everyone who publicly promoted the type of report described here. GIGO, I recall them saying.
Othodoxy taken to extreme is not a virtue.
AndyL
March 19, 2012 3:36 pm
They say “The projected contribution of each glacier’s partial or complete melting to sea level rise ranges from 8.7 cm to 16 cm,”
That really would be scary. 4 inches of sea level rise per glacier?? Who proof reads this stuff?
In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Lower Mississippi has shortened itself two hundred and forty-two miles. That is an average of a trifle over one mile and a third per year. Therefore, any calm person, who is not blind or idiotic, can see that in the Old Oolitic Silurian Period, just a million years ago next November, the Lower Mississippi River was upwards of one million three hundred thousand miles long, and stuck out over the Gulf of Mexico like a fishing-rod. And by the same token any person can see that seven hundred and forty-two years from now the Lower Mississippi will be only a mile and three-quarters long, and Cairo and New Orleans will have joined their streets together, and be plodding comfortably along under a single mayor and a mutual board of aldermen. There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
– Life on the Mississippi, Mark Twain
Beesaman
March 19, 2012 3:52 pm
Damned glacier has melted in my gin and tonic, oh the horror!
leave the splicing to man and jones.
Further problems with splicing
“However, the Greenland temperature
trend diverges from the global trend in the last 168 years,
which raises the possibility that much of the trend is due to
natural variability, and makes it more difficult to attribute the
recent warming in Greenland to increasing anthropogenic
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [Box et al., 2009; Chylek
et al., 2006, 2010]. For example, according to observed
temperature records, Greenland underwent a 33% larger
warming in 1919.1932 than the warming in 1994.2007 [Box
et al., 2009], and recent decadal average temperature is
similar to that of the 1930s.1940s [Chylek et al., 2006;
Box et al., 2009]. A deviation of the Greenland temperature
from the global average temperature trend is likely caused by
regional climate variability via modes such as the North
Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO) and the
Atlantic Multi]decadal Oscillation (AMO) [Hanna et al.,
2008; Long, 2009; Chylek et al., 2010]. These twentieth
century oscillations are thought to be induced by the internal
variability of climate system [Ting et al., 2009].”
Billy Liar
March 19, 2012 3:56 pm
LazyTeenager says:
March 19, 2012 at 3:16 pm Here I go again explaining stuff I thought everyone knew.
Take a hint – don’t bother.
GeoLurking
March 19, 2012 4:00 pm
gregschiller cites
“Global groundwater depletion leads to sea level rise” which states: “…It thus turns out that almost half of the current sea level rise can be explained by expansion of warming sea water…”
Which begs the question: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/09/18/trenberths-missing-heat-look-to-the-deep/
Where Ocean Heat Content seems to be pretty flat since 2003.
Jenn Oates
March 19, 2012 4:01 pm
But 99% of all climate scientists say the world is warming, don’t confuse the issue with So-called “facts”like these. If it was true I’d hear about it on NPR.
/
Bobuk says:
March 19, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Sorry wrong country. The Argentière glacier is French.
I live in Colorado and have been up to the St. Mary’s glacier (really a permanent snow field that people ski on in winter). After seeing how small it is to Alpine Glaciers I’ve been to, I tried to look up historic changes. In my opinion, if AGW was that powerful, this snow field should be gone. It is tiny and it is unchanged as best I can tell. My hypothesis is the glaciers are melting as a result of the end of the little ice age. Once the “easy ice” is gone, they will stabilize. Looks to be the case in a lot of Alpine glaciers which are not changing anymore.
Don Easterbrook extensively documents the same sort of waxing and waning of the glaciers on Mt. Baker in Washington State in his recent book on the geology of the Bellingham area. After you read the book it is not hard to see why Dr. Easterbrook is skeptical of the catastrophism!
Given that Warmist Alarmists appear to be going round in ever decreasing circles…can we hope that some day soon they will disappear up their own a$$holes?
New Zealand’s mountain ranges could lose up to 85% of their glaciers by 2100 say the team.
Was the team using Jim Salinger’s imaginary NZ temperature record?
This site has got its gander up about glacier retreat.
http://www.iceagenow.com/Growing_Glaciers.htm
one of those “Oh My God!” moments?
Apparently the IPCC has really screwed up (no wonder there) it’s estimation of what is causing sea level rise and especially what is causing the “it’s worse than we thought” acceleration of sea level rise in the last fifty years.
Inspired by NOAA’s statement that the recent “speed-bump” decline of sea-level is due to all the rain that fell in Australia because of La Nina, I got thinking, gosh, if just a few rain-falls could affect sea-level that much – what is the affect on sea-level of global aquifer depletion?
Whoa!! Look at this!
Global groundwater depletion leads to sea level rise
Why is it a headline? They used the IPCC assumptions to model the IPCC results.
————
It’s funny how David Middleton is such a genius but can’t answer these trivial questions for himself.
It’s simple really. There is a big stretch between an emissions scenario and the response of glaciers to that temperature regime. It seems that this paper is attempting to fill that really really big gap in understanding.
“The projected contribution of each glacier’s partial or complete melting to sea level rise ranges from 8.7 cm to 16 cm, depending on the model. The IPCC’s estimates for sea level rise by 2100 ranged from 7 to 17 centimetres in its 2007 fourth assessment report.”
———————————————————————————————————————-
Boy Howdy!
Just taking what is presented in this glacier melt report, sea level rise by 2100 will be in the range of 3 to 7 inches. That ain’t much, especially when compared to earlier IPCC estimates of up to five feet, and Gore and Hansen estimates of twenty or more feet. A maximum of 7 inches is very close to the measured rise of the twentieth century, and of course is far below the average of over two feet per century since the end of the last Ice Age.
Where’s the beef!? Or mutton, since this has a New Zealand flavor.
“Dave says:
March 19, 2012 at 1:33 pm
So the prediction are in complete agreement with the IPCC predictions”
LOL. That’s why the IPCC stands for International Prediction of Climate Change. 🙂
Colin in BC,
“IPCC data” = oxymoron.
Really, how is this any different than getting your palms read, Tarot cards read, or having a soothsayer read a crystal ball? Those are all modelling too. Modelling the future based on a sequence of Tarot cards.
David Middleton says
It appears that glacier mass balance has been on the increase since 2003… What’s up with that?
—————
Here I go again explaining stuff I thought everyone knew.
Glacier mass balance depends on the rate of accumulation above the snow line versus the flow and melting at the snowline.
So inceasing temperatures has 2 effects.
1. Increased melting at the edges. The snow line moves to higher altitudes.
2. Increased humidity leading to greater snow deposition.
So warming in its early stages can increase the mass of ice, but reduce the area of ice coverage. Eventually sometime in the future the area for low lying glaciers will become zero.
I hope that David can understand all that cos he is a genius. I’m sure the ordinary WUWT readership has no problems at all understanding it either, if they wanted to.
There is no doubt three main glaciers of NZ South Island (Franz Joseph, Fox and Tasman glaciers) have all been retreating since the LIA. It will be interesting to see whether there will be any short term recovery due to seemingly larger annual snowfalls onto the southern alps during the last 10 years compared with the 80’s and 90’s. I say seemingly cos its based on personal observation as a keen skier rather than relying on any data produced by NZ climate organisation NIWA of the 7 series adjustment infamy. Which amazingly is still prominently displayed on their website. Oh the arrogance of Government Departments eh?
Let’s not forget that the New Zealand data handlers were the first to be caught warming the temperature data and doing it more than any other group. They really wanted to be number one in the warming race.
So, with that and the IPCC peer-reviewed junk science, all of their wishes and predictions will be for everything to melt, even their brains.
“Credibility! Huh! We don’t need no stink in’ credibility! Stupid Gringo!
‘New Zealand’s mountain ranges could lose up to 85% of their glaciers by 2100. ‘
Naa… Inventive Kiwi’s will shoot down to Franz Joseph Glacier, chip a bit off, put it in their chilly bins then take ’em home and put ’em in their freezers…!!!
Not circular reasoning: straightforward If A then B. Except that “A” is considered certain.
Therein lies the debate: is A certain (and settled)?
Back in 1980 I worked with engineers who modelled the value of oil reserves at Texaco in Canada, based on an in-house price index for oil. It postulated $200/bbl in 1980 dollars by the year 2000. The conclusion was that it was more profitable to NOT produce, to leave the oil in the ground for another 20 years, than to take the money in 1980. The executive at the time almost laughed: unlike the IPCC, they understood the vagaries of the official projections, and the uncertainty of model outcomes.
Today the model is king. Those executives would be firing everyone who publicly promoted the type of report described here. GIGO, I recall them saying.
Othodoxy taken to extreme is not a virtue.
They say “The projected contribution of each glacier’s partial or complete melting to sea level rise ranges from 8.7 cm to 16 cm,”
That really would be scary. 4 inches of sea level rise per glacier?? Who proof reads this stuff?
The wikigraphs are by Robert A. Rohde
see also http://globalwarmingart.com/wiki/User:Robert_A._Rohde
In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Lower Mississippi has shortened itself two hundred and forty-two miles. That is an average of a trifle over one mile and a third per year. Therefore, any calm person, who is not blind or idiotic, can see that in the Old Oolitic Silurian Period, just a million years ago next November, the Lower Mississippi River was upwards of one million three hundred thousand miles long, and stuck out over the Gulf of Mexico like a fishing-rod. And by the same token any person can see that seven hundred and forty-two years from now the Lower Mississippi will be only a mile and three-quarters long, and Cairo and New Orleans will have joined their streets together, and be plodding comfortably along under a single mayor and a mutual board of aldermen. There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
– Life on the Mississippi, Mark Twain
Damned glacier has melted in my gin and tonic, oh the horror!
leave the splicing to man and jones.
Further problems with splicing
“However, the Greenland temperature
trend diverges from the global trend in the last 168 years,
which raises the possibility that much of the trend is due to
natural variability, and makes it more difficult to attribute the
recent warming in Greenland to increasing anthropogenic
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [Box et al., 2009; Chylek
et al., 2006, 2010]. For example, according to observed
temperature records, Greenland underwent a 33% larger
warming in 1919.1932 than the warming in 1994.2007 [Box
et al., 2009], and recent decadal average temperature is
similar to that of the 1930s.1940s [Chylek et al., 2006;
Box et al., 2009]. A deviation of the Greenland temperature
from the global average temperature trend is likely caused by
regional climate variability via modes such as the North
Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO) and the
Atlantic Multi]decadal Oscillation (AMO) [Hanna et al.,
2008; Long, 2009; Chylek et al., 2010]. These twentieth
century oscillations are thought to be induced by the internal
variability of climate system [Ting et al., 2009].”
LazyTeenager says:
March 19, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Here I go again explaining stuff I thought everyone knew.
Take a hint – don’t bother.
gregschiller cites
“Global groundwater depletion leads to sea level rise” which states:
“…It thus turns out that almost half of the current sea level rise can be explained by expansion of warming sea water…”
Which begs the question:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/09/18/trenberths-missing-heat-look-to-the-deep/
Where Ocean Heat Content seems to be pretty flat since 2003.
But 99% of all climate scientists say the world is warming, don’t confuse the issue with So-called “facts”like these. If it was true I’d hear about it on NPR.
/