From Tom Nelson
Email 600, Sept 2007: Watts expose makes NOAA want to change entire USA method
[Tom Karl, Director of the National Climatic Data Center] We are getting blogged all over for a cover-up of poor global station and US stations we use. They claim NCDC is in a scandal by not providing observer’s addresses. In any case Anthony Watts has photographed about 350 stations and finds using our criteria that about 15% are acceptable. I am trying to get some our folks to develop a method to switchover to using the CRN sites, at least in the USA.
Hat tip: AJ
===============================================================
Note this email, because it will be something I reference in the future. – Anthony
Related articles
- Widespread Flaws in Weather Stations Networks Used to Track National Temperature Trends, Says New Study (prweb.com)
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LazyTeenager says:
February 4, 2012 at 3:57 pm
‘I wish you would not just make stuff up. Without the context you can’t interpret this properly so you should not be making up interpretations just to suit your propaganda objectives. It’s fundamentally dishonest.’
Your usual projection, with that added pinch of cognitive dissonance thrown in for seasoning. Such an inadvertent comedian and entirely without any self-awareness, as befits your monniker.
After watching JeffId’s Sea Ice Video 1978-2012….
The maximum Arctic ice area seems to vary only by about 10%, that can easily be within a natural fluctuation.
If I had normal 20 foot snow drifts in my driveway, but only got 18 feet for a few years, I’d still be complaining about the shoveling, even though it was 10% less.
Good work Anthony and Jeff too, these fluctuations are no crisis.
Thanks for enlightening the world.
cui bono says:
February 4, 2012 at 4:28 pm #
and
David Ball says:
February 4, 2012 at 4:37 pm
If you want to see their true colours ask the Met Office about the following:-
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/decadal-prediction
Note that they have chosen not to update it.
And now look at their next offering:-
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc
PS, don’t expect the MO to update that one either, but whether or not the MO joins in it will be updated.
I was under the impression that it’s relatively easy to code your own adjustment code and that it has been done multiple times. And they all come much the same conclusions about the temperature trends.
Your impression is absolutely incorrect. Furthermore, we are not interested in anyone else’s adjustments. We are interested in how NOAA makes the adjustments. In order to find out, we require the – exact – procedures/algorithm, working code (and operating manuals) so that NOAA’s adjustments can be replicated.
Unless the adjustments can be replicated using NOAA’s exact procedures, they cannot be independently reviewed.
You can’t just show up with adjusted data and say, “I got it from the boys.” Not and expect to be treated seriously.
So doesn’t that make access to the NOAA code kind of irrelevant since the actual principles involved are well known.
This Liberal New Yorker hails from Show Me, Missouri, on that one.
The code, Jack. That’s what we need. A nice up of tea and the code . . .
The new improved HADCRUT4 lowers earlier recorded temps to make current actual temps look higher. It’s been found already, it’s old news. There was an Iceland story here on WUWT a week or two back on exactly that.
Two hundred years ago, people took to the streets. Now we take to the blogs. The military-industrial complex must be pissing their pants.
We’ve got nice graphs though.
LazyTeenager says: February 4, 2012 at 3:57 pm
The only boots I am familiar with LT are those worn by people such as Willis E and a few good women.
And what is right is right, but you ain’t been right yet……………
Tom Karl and the NCDC have been given a pretty big pass so far.
All of the problems and all the unjustified corrections to the temperature record are done through the non-transparent NCDC.
We shouldn’t be going after James Hansen and Phil Jones so much as we should be looking at what Tom Karl (and his NCDC employees) have done.
Dear Lazy Teenager, I’ll dramatically simplify the problem and turn it around:
Pretend you have only two thermometers, their accuracy is ±0.1C. They’re “CRN1”, meaning there aren’t any barbeques, overhanging trees, nor jet exhaust (a criteria that 85% of the existing stations fail). Assume they’re auto-adjusted for humidity and elevation. (Some of the adjustments make perfect sense.) Put them anywhere you like so long as they’re fifty miles apart.
Now: Pretend the two thermometers are two corners of a rectangular area (projected on a sphere) and provide the average temperature of the -entire- box to an accuracy of 0.01C under all weather conditions.
Making one’s own code to do exactly that is non-trivial.
Roger Sowell February 4, 2012 at 12:53 pm RE: Pristine sites
Australia probably has more instrinsically pristine weather stations than USA. I selected the best subset I could, for the year 1970 onwards (due to availability of modern data). A summary is at
http://www.geoffstuff.com/030303CONDENSED%20PRISTINE%20SLOPE%20AUSTRALIA.xls
As one can see from the graphs at the bottom of the summary, the linear slope of the movement on Tmax and Tmin varies enormously and does not correlate with any extraneous variable I could identify. (The linear fit is for decoration, not math). It is therefore somewhat pointless to try to set a baseline temperature when there is no consistency among pristine sites, whose trends here varied from -2.5 to + 4.8 degrees per century equivalent. over some 50 sites.
Going back earlier, when data colection often relied on individuals in remote locations, Dr Simon Torok wrote his Doctoral Thesis in 1996 on the more accurate compilation of weather data. Some of his complications on my web site, with thanks& acknowledgements to him, at
http://www.geoffstuff.com/Torok%20thesis%20excusesW2003.doc
Lazy Teenager’s view of the world is that his honest opinions are honest, but anyone who has honest opinions that differ from his are being dishonest.
Keep fighting that rearguard action LT. Not long to go now ….
… watch out for bootprints.
While I can see how a large network of volunteer run stations could have error over time, I can’t see how the “corrections” aren’t fully documented. If only due to bureaucratic inertia and not data integrity.
To the best of my knowledge, there has only been one book published that lays out Anthony’s extraordinary doings regarding the recording of temperature:
http://amzn.to/yLN0Zm
Congratulations Anthony, surfacestations.org has done a great job!
If it were me, I would stop for a minute and have a scotch.
Is were even a word?
philincalifornia says: February 4, 2012 at 6:56 pm
Lazy Teenager’s view of the world is that his honest opinions are honest, but anyone who has honest opinions that differ from his are being dishonest.
Keep fighting that rearguard action LT. Not long to go now ….
… watch out for bootprints.
or hand prints……………………of one artistic form or another………………………..
Parental guidance recommended. Some will need parenteral guidance……………
Steve from Rockwood says:
February 4, 2012 at 8:07 pm
> If it were me, I would stop for a minute and have a scotch.
I finished off a bottle of Drambuie in Anthoy’s honor. Is that good enough?
Notes on science, bootprints, sites, legislation and economics……… perhaps policy and expenditure…………
cf address of Dr T R Karl in email600.
July 1969 Buzz Aldrin, Bootprint on Lunar Soil
http://www.britannica.com/bps/media-view/73230/1/0/0
AND
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/world/vintage-nasa-photographs-20111024-1mga7.html
104th Congress, 1st Session HR 2504
To designate the Federal building located on the corner of Patton Avenue and Otis Street ………………. as the ‘Veach-Baley Federal Complex’.
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-104hr2504rh/pdf/BILLS-104hr2504rh.pdf
20/7/2009 Army Contracts to Study Its ‘Carbon Bootprint’
WASHINGTON — As the federal government prepares to regulate greenhouse gases, the U.S. Army has contracted a firm to evaluate the military’s “carbon bootprint,” a balance sheet of its emissions.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124811157068565825.html
29/9/2009 RECOVERY (ARRA) – Lighting Feasibility Studies
RECOVERY ACT PROCUREMENT. THIS NOTICE IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
The project will be funded through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). The proposed procurement is being made under an Architect-Engineer (A-E) Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) Multiple Award Supplemental Contract for the primary geographic area of GSA Region 4 (GS-04P-06-EX-D-0027).
The scope of this work is for lighting feasibility studies using relighting best practices to the Veach-Bailey Federal Building, 151 Patton Ave., Asheville, NC 28801.
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=f9632b2f4d73fec3bea240135d2e2e73&tab=core&_cview=1
21 /5/2010 GSA Goes Green
The General Services Administration is Using ARRA Funds for Southeast Green Projects
The U.S. General Services Administration received nearly $5.6 billion in American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funding to modernize federal facilities and convert them into high-performance green buildings. Those dollars are starting to flow into communities in the Southeast as projects ramp up…..“The government spends a lot of money on energy use in buildings, and anything we can do to make that better and reduce our carbon footprint is a good thing…..”
• $4.4 million upgrade to the Veach-Baley Federal Complex in Asheville, N.C.
……. that offered energy conservation and renewable energy generation, could start within 120 days and had limited risk of failure. It also considered the facility’s condition, the project’s ability to improve asset utilization, return on investment, the opportunity to avoid lease costs and historic significance.’ (bold added)
http://southeast.construction.com/features/2010/0401_GreenConstruction.asp
Nov-Dec 2011 The Economic Bootprint of Defense Spending in Indiana
‘Since 2001, the value of defense contracts awarded to Indiana has more than doubled, the annual number of unique contracts awarded has increased nearly five-fold, and the number of Indiana defense contractors has grown significantly (see Table 1). The 2010 value of Indiana’s defense-related contracts ranked 23rd among states……………the estimated average compensation for direct defense-supported jobs was nearly $20,000 greater than Indiana’s average compensation per worker for all jobs.
http://www.incontext.indiana.edu/2011/nov-dec/article1.asp
Also mentioned in email600 was the need for information for the upcoming publication ‘Leadership, Innovation….’. An eg given was for epidemiology. Tony McMichael (Australia) contributed to reports in the IPCC and is mentioned in The Delinquent Teenager practices and advises on both epidemiology and climate. Sir Michael Marmot, also an epidemiologist also has an interest in architecture and town planning (http://globetrotter.berkeley.edu/people2/Marmot/marmot-con1.html). Perhaps later in green star ratings of civil buildings? Or was that the longitudinal studies (Whitehall etc) on civil servants. Will need to check.
congrats anthony. your hard work was not in vain.
big thanx to mrs. watts for allowing u to perservere.
OT but interesting. 101 Tory MP´s in the UK parliament have revolted on the Coalition´s position on renewable energy, saying that subsidies to onshore wind, and the siting of more wind turbines is wrong. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9061997/100-Tories-revolt-over-wind-farms.html
@ur momisugly juanslayton February 4, 2012 at 4:00 pm
“I couldn’t find in Daly’s article where he pulled these stations out for commendation, ”
Along with many other stations from round the world John considered met the requirements to be classed as “greenfields” sites, they are listed in a “clickable” Appendix – Station Records to 1998 or 1999, at the end of his article.
That list contains what John considered to be one the finest “greenfield” sites in the world because of its history and ideal location: Valentia Observatory. Ireland. Read what John said about it, click on the graph and see why the warmists and the whole CAGW crowd hate it.
And to anticipate any comment from LT about cherry picking, if ever there was a “bell-wether” surface station to monitor any climate change, Valentia would be the one!
Anthony
With that email, all your efforts have been rewarded.
Congratulation!
Why the switchover if it were okay?
Congratulations, Anthony, well done yet again. It looks like a massive payday from out here.
Steve from Rockwood says:
If it were me, I would stop for a minute and have a scotch.
…
Is were even a word?
Yes. Subjunctive mood. Seldom used these days except by the highly educated, pirates, and in Ebonics.
A much-deserved, good old sock in the eye for the nay-sayers – nice pwnage, Anthony!