Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
From the “weather is not climate” department, the sea ice is in early and thick in Alaska. It makes me shiver just to look at the picture. They had to use an icebreaker to get fuel to Nome.
Figure 1. The Bering Sea region in Alaska. Anchorage is at the upper right. The Aleutian peninsula and chain runs down to the lower left. Ice covers all of Bristol Bay, and extends well out from the shore to the west. Photo Source
I fished commercially up there, in the Bering Sea. I’ve lived in a container in the Peter Pan Cannery boatyard in Dillingham, and gill netted for the noble salmon in Bristol Bay, drunk too much and worked it off laughing in a blazing hot steam bath with some Yupik guys trying to roast me out the door by cranking up the heat. I’ve made great money in driving sleet arguing with the herring regarding the eventual fate of their roe in Togiak, and seen the walrus hauled ashore in their thousands on Round Island. Those fisheries kill a man or two a year, plus the usual crushed hands and feet and the like. But I haven’t fished the January Bering Sea crab fishery, the one made famous as “The Deadliest Catch”. Figure 1 shows why I don’t do that.
The Bering Sea ice this year is in early, and it’s thick. Not only that, it’s moving south fast. The crab fleet has some $8 million dollars of gear in the water, and the ice is moving south at twenty miles a day. Usually ice comes in later and thinner, and moves south at three miles a day. Boats are tied up to the Dutch Harbor docks. At St. Paul Island, out of the photo to the left, the crab boats usually sell their loads to the processor boats. It is also totally iced in. Millions of dollars have already been sunk into moving the crab boats and the processor boats and the crab pots to Dutch. If this cold continues, the season will likely be a total bust.
My point in this post? Awe, mostly, at the damaging power of cold. As a seaman, cold holds many more terrors than heat. When enough ice builds up on a boat’s superstructure, it rolls over and men die. The sun can’t do that. The Titanic wasn’t sunk by a heat wave.
The thing about ice? You can’t do a dang thing about it. You can’t blow up a glacier, or an ice sheet like you see in the Bering Sea above. You can’t melt it. The biggest, most powerful icebreaker can’t break through more than a few feet of it. When the ice moves in, the game is over.
Now me, I’m a tropical boy. My feeling is that well-behaved ice sits peacefully in my margarita glass, making those lovely cold drips run down the outside, and giving me a brain freeze when I hold the glass to my forehead.
But when ice jumps out of my glass and starts running all around painting the landscape white and solidifying the ocean and falling on my head and freezing my … begonias, well, at that point the fun’s over. I call that “water behaving badly”.
And if you want to worry about a climate related occurrence, I certainly wouldn’t worry about the dread Thermageddon™, the long-foretold and ever-receding premature heat-death of civilization.
I’d worry about water behaving badly …
Best of the cold to my friends in Alaska, stay safe on the ocean, and my regards to all,
w.
Most of my time in Alaska was spent mountain biking the Iditarod trail in late February. I experienced -35F to 40F temperatures and no two years were ever alike in the decade I did that sort of thing. Warm, cold, snow, no snow and everything in between, heck we even had rain one year. Glad I’m not there this year.
Willis Eschenbach says:
January 27, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Best wishes regarding the friendliness disability, it’s conquerable, don’t give up hope …
Willis, I may have trained as an accountant but I have successfully managed a good career in the IT field so it turns out I do not have a friendliness disability …
I am one of those that come in after the project guy has “delivered” the said project and actually make it work for the those that have to live with the results on an ongoing basis.
However you seemed to miss the point of the smiley face after my comments (maybe the /sarc tag was required?).
Matt:
Ratings for Arctic class icebreakers:
http://www.veristar.com/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_107O/.cmd/ad/.ar/sa.openArticle/.pm/-/.c/6_1_105/.ce/7_1_8J3/.p/5_1_7Q3/.d/0?PC_7_1_8J3_article=polarrules&PC_7_1_8J3_section=bvrules&PC_7_1_8J3_publication=veristarinfo
There are not many PC1 class icebreakers in the world and the US fleet (3), is aging.
Having been a few years sailor (engin room), instead of (then still obliged) military service, amongst others on a tanker, we had to deliver fuel to Stockholm, January 1966. Temperature then was -20°C, not an ideal temperature if you have to repair the motor of a lifeboat. After the delivery the tanker was locked in the ice, because a severe storm did drive pack ice from the North Baltic down to the South. After a few days we were set free by an ice-breaker and the last ships of that winter followed the ice-breaker in convoy to open waters. My deepest respect for the crew of the tanker and ice- breacker that rescued Nome from a disaster.
Very true Willis. Mind you those crabs do taste good. A few years ago we went to the US on holiday and stayed in West Yellowstone, Montana, and had an Alaskan Crab meal, in Bulliwinkles Bar. What surprised me was the low cost of this meal. The crab was about a day old and flown into West Yellowstone, prepared and served, all for $17. Amazing taste and great value, and the beer was good as well.
8364khz says:
January 27, 2012 at 11:40 am
Should have said…
Joined MV Falmouth Bay, Seattle, as R/O 21st February, 1984.
There is something about getting older… Can’t remember what it is though
It’s, it,s it,s oh damn I can’t remeber either!
Louise a simple comparison: Try breaking down in your car in the NW of Australia during summer and compare that with breaking down in Minnesota during the winter. If you get stranded in plus 40C as long as you have water you will be fine. You will survive indefinitely. Try surviving stranded in a blizzard.You will last hours at the most unless you have a heat source or are rescued. I’ve experienced both and I can assure you the first example is preferable.
Louise.:Those in the sub-sahara are unlikely to suffer frostbite .
ummm
well go LOOK at the snows IN Sahara just this week!
and yeah it HAS happened before so warming didnt do it.
Speaking of ice breakers, it seems one captain is practicing in Kentucky for service in Siberia:
Eggner Ferry Bridge Hit By Delta Mariner Ship In Kentucky (PHOTOS)
Re heat versus cold deaths. This study draws the conclusion that cold related deaths are significantly life shortening whereas heat related deaths have less impact in this respect.
http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/rest.91.4.659
Report conclusion.
Our findings indicate that increases in mortality caused
by cold temperature are long lasting. We find evidence of a
large and statistically significant permanent effect on mor-
tality of cold waves. By contrast, the increases in mortality
associated with heat waves are short lived. The increase in
mortality that occurs in the days immediately following heat
waves appears entirely driven by temporal displacement.
The aggregate effect of extreme cold on mortality is
large. We estimate that the number of annual deaths attrib-
utable to cold temperature is about 0.8% of annual deaths in
the United States during the sample period. This effect is
significantly larger among males living in low-income ar-
eas.
The main contribution of this paper is to document the
importance of a previously unrecognized determinant of
gains in life expectancy in the United States. Over the past
several decades, the U.S. population has moved from the
northeastern and midwestern states to the southwestern
states. This secular trend has resulted in a diminished
exposure to cold weather. We calculate that every year,
4,600 deaths are delayed by the changing exposure to cold
temperature. Such effect on longevity accounts for 3% to
7% of the overall increase in longevity experienced by the
U.S. population over the past thirty years.
The unmentioned component of the Oil for Nome story it what it represents in terms of energy supply and delivery. It is useful to observe the Renda delivered diesel and gasoline, not firewood, not coal, no wind mills, no solar panels. The economies of scale in the global oil industry made it possible to deliver the most appropriate energy the world has ever known, on short notice, using assets on hand, from across the world.
In December a Russian tanker was called out – a rare one, too, as there are not a lot of tankers in the world that can follow an icebreaker through that mess. Because of engine problems it almost did not make it. The reason she was called out? The massive storm that hit Alaska in 2011 blocked the usual path of fuel which is barged in from Washington State.
The Renda was carrying Korean diesel fuel. People should think about that when they start grumbling about globalization. It stopped in Dutch Harbor and picked up gasoline. That required a waiver of the Jones act, btw. The Renda followed the US icebreaker Healy, a shadow of her former self, through hundreds of miles of pack ice and ice ridges. On arrival at Nome the ship was required to stand off shore because of the gentle bottom slope. A guy with a tractor, fueled not by carrot juice, corn oil, coal, solar, or rechargeable batteries, laid in an ice road to allow stretching hoses made from petrochemicals the 4 miles to the distribution head.
Efficiencies of scale put this rescue on the drawing board. Oil made it possible. No wind mills were used in this delivery. If green energy zealots have their way and we lose those efficiencies it is quite possible Nome will become a ghost town for a winter or two, then disappear all together.
Colder weather related deaths does not only include hypothermia but also includes problems that become fatal for those with circulatory problems, these can come to the fore even at 17c.
From an earlier blog at WUWT.
“Since extreme cold has gripped much of the Northern Hemisphere, some newspapers have been keeping a tally of the number of deaths obviously caused by extreme cold (e.g., freezing). But the BBC’s Health Correspondent, Clare Murphy, in a very timely and, in my opinion, excellent article, How cold turns up the heat on health, reminds us that many more deaths occur from chronic conditions that are exacerbated by cold weather. She also notes that, “For every degree the temperature drops below 18C, deaths in the UK go up by nearly 1.5%.””
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/06/winter-kills-excess-deaths-in-the-winter-months/
Jeff L says:
January 27, 2012 at 6:51 pm
As a point of reference, all of our field operations on the North slope (yes, I am one of those oil guys the AGWers despise) this week have been shut down because it’s too cold
My youngest daughter worked on the North Slope until a few years ago as helicopter pilot. They might not fly during such extreme cold conditions, as the rotor blades could break off, because getting too brittle. Same problem for lots of steel equipment I suppose.
Nowadays she works in Nigeria, quite a different (weather) climate, but not directly the safest country of the world for its (political) climate…
Barrow sea ice progressing well this year
Barrow Sea Ice Thickness and Sea Level
Barrow Sea Ice Mass Balance Site 2012
The Mass Balance Site was deployed on landfast sea ice in the Chukchi Sea at Barrow, Alaska on January 11, 2012. At the time, ice thickness was 0.97 m (38 in) and snow depth was 0.05 m (2 inches).
The latest measurements available are of Jan 28, 2012, 11:15 AM AKST
Air temperature:
-32 °C, -25 °F
Ice thickness:
1.12 m, 3 ft 8″
Current ice growth rate: 0.9 cm/day (3/8 in/day).
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_sealevel/brw2012/BRW_MBS12_overview_complete.png
Data from previous years can be found:-
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/data/barrow_massbalance
“Spike in deaths blamed on 2003 NYC power outage”
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/health/2012/01/27/spike-in-deaths-blamed-on-2003-nyc-power-outage/#ixzz1kmvpFDh9
Imagine a power failure in NYC in the dead of winter…..cardiovascular and respiratory deaths would skyrocket much more that they did in the summer of ’03.
@Willis:
Some time in February, you ought to post your “Bucket List”.
Given your “Been There – Done That List”, your Bucket List ought to be quite a read.
Matt says:
January 28, 2012 at 12:29 am
gosh – ice breakers can’t break through one foot of ice? What are you trying to say? A sailing yacht can do that. Looking up ice breakers at Wiki reveals that they can plow through ice 2.5 meters (that is 10 feet) thick at 10 knots / 19Km/h
Matt, It is clear that You know very little about either ice or icebreakers. There are indeed a very few icebreakers that can break 2.5 meters thick ice. I suppose all eight Russian nuclear icebreakers can do it, and the Swedish Oden and perhaps one or two Finnish or Canadian ones, but.probably no others. Incidentally no sensible person would run at 10 knots in such heavy ice, since there is always an appreciable risk of running into a pressure-ridge, and a sudden stop from 10 knots would be quite dangerous.
And a sailing yacht has precisely zero ice-breaking capability. And as for breaking one foot thick ice you might be interested to know that here in Sweden, where we have a lot of ice in winter and use ice-roads quite a bit, one foot thick ice is considered safe to use for trucks weighing up to 4.5 tons. Ice is pretty tough..
People who live in Alaska expect it, prepare for it, and are used to it. They are unlikely to need, or appreciate, expressions of concern, nor psychological counselling. One comment to Willis: those out on the high seas fear neither heat nor cold, but wind and the associated high seas.
That’s the problem with the AGW crowd – they have it back to front – it’s temperature driving the biosphere that ends up producing more CO2, not the other way around.
Of course if you are suffering from excess hubris then it might be plausible to put the idea that humans are causing the warming, (and in virtual reality la-la land quite so), rather than accept the reality that, as hairless simians, we tend to react to changes in the environment, and doing it quite well, it seems if Willis’ life experiences are any guide.
The big question then has to focus on the cause of the temperature fluctuations that changes climate, and to me it’s the plasma.
@John Billings says:
January 28, 2012 at 4:11 pm
////////////////////////////////
I do not agree with your dig at Willis. Whilst it may be true that you are more likely to come a cropper in strong winds and high seas, cold and ice undoubtedly pose significant risks and probelms for any commercial shipping.
One should not under-estimate the dangers of a cold sea. The reason why so many people died in the Titanic incident was due to the cold sea. Survival rates in that cold water was measured in minutes perhaps 10 to 15 at the very outside. People in life vest would have survived had a similar incident (perhaps a vessel floundering on an unchartered submersed rocky outcrop) taken place in the warm waters of the Med for the 1.5 to 2 hours that it took the Carpethia to arrive on the scene.
One can see a simialr casualty rate in the Estonia incident when a ship sunk (a RoRo failing to properly close its doors) in the Baltic in winter claiming a 1000 or so lives. Many people died not simply in the cold water but also on life rafts (due to Hyperthermia). Cold is a very serious problem for any mariner.
For all those arguin cold verse hot related deaths, Cold can kill in minutes and that is why the ultimate adventure was the trek to the North or South pole and why the intrepid explorers of old are still held in such high esteem today.
richard verney says:
January 28, 2012 at 5:10 pm
I’m not digging at Willis. Just saying that every seafarer knows that there is no particular danger in heat or cold. But there is horrible danger in wind, because that can turn your boat on its ass and throw you into the sea 200 miles from land. And this is the greatest fear, and there is none to surpass it among those that go to sea. That’s all.
Having spent many years on the sea-the WORST thing that a sailor can face is fire, which is why we drilled on fighting it so often. There is no fire department to call for help and if you can’t get it out yourself you will find yourself in the water much further than you can swim, with a very high probability that you won’t make it.
Truthseeker says:
January 28, 2012 at 1:43 am
Definitely required a /sarc tag, and my apologies for the misunderstanding. I hate smileys, people think they can say anything and put a smiley and it’s OK. It’s not. The /sarc tag is clear and unambiguous.
My best to you, again, regrets for my error,
w.
John Billings says:
January 28, 2012 at 4:11 pm
I’ve spent a lifetime on and under the sea. The odds you can school me on what mariners fear are about zero. As the saying goes, I’ve worn out more seabags than you have socks. I know damn well what mariners fear, and contrary to your nonsense, one of the worst is ice.
If ice starts forming on your superstructure, you have to go out with your Louisville slugger or your sledge hammer and break it off. And all the time you’re knocking it off, it is forming back again, plus adding weight to the rest of the ship that you haven’t cleared the ice from yet.
It is this battle that is so frightening. A battle against wind and seas, that’s scary, but there’s nothing inexorable about it. It doesn’t grind you to a pulp.
But if the ice conditions turn bad enough, and it begins freezing faster than you can break it off, then there will be a long, exhausting battle that may very well end in your death. Not the nice easy death of wind and wave. But a death of ennervating, bone-crushing, spirit-numbing work that goes on endlessly, hanging on for dear life with one hand on a slippery deck and smashing ice with the other, with you gaining a little and losing a little more, for hours and hours until the ice triumphs over your exhaustion. At that point, the boat rolls over and sinks in the icy sea. Not a good way to go.
Finally, when fighting wind and seas, it’s often cold but not icy, and sometimes (hurricanes) it’s even warm. If you go in the water you have a fighting chance.
But when you are up against ice, consider the water temperature … and it’s just one misjudged ice-covered foothold away … yeah, bro’, fishermen fear the ice.
So spare us your imaginations about how mariners don’t fear the cold, John. They don’t fear the heat, it won’t harm them, but mariners fear ice with a bone-chilling fear, just like aeronauts fear ice, and for the same reason—it’s deadly to both.
w.
Did you ever party with the polar bears? http://i851.photobucket.com/albums/ab73/gottabuzz/BearBBQ.gif