Multiple indicators show global temperatures headed down this month, and fast.
by Joe D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow
As shown above (see the datapoint in the square box), the UAH AMSU daily temperatures are the coldest for the globe at 600mb of all the years tracked since 2002 (warmest 2010, previously coldest 2009).
The new Dr. Ryan Maue reanalysis based global temperature anomalies has declined dramatically this month – almost a full degree Celsius!
Forecasts for temperature 8 days in advance are appended to the reanalysis values.
Is this a reflection of the stratospheric warming pushing the cold to middle latitudes?
The cross section suggests that initial warm burst has ended. Often they repeat as the cold reloads and dumps again.
The 10mb warmth has only backed off slightly.
Notice at the north pole how temperatures warmed 50C (90F) at 10mb.
See how the warmth at the top has spread north then east then west.
Some lowering of the cold as warmth above presses down.
Meanwhile much of the lower 48 and western Europe is having a mild winter in contrast to recent years. It may end up among the coldest ever in Alaska. With a recent heat wave that I am sure Gerald Meehl at NOAA/NCAR is looking at where temperatures in Fairbanks rose to a balmy -3 (warmest this month), the average monthly temperature is an amazing 16.5F below normal. In Anchroage it has been about 13F below normal with double the normal snowfall.
The Alaska temperatures follow with the PDO. A cold PDO (with cold water offshore) means colder than normal, a warm PDO warmer than normal. Any surprise warming was observed as we moved from the La Nina rich cold PDO before 1977 to the El Ninos and +PDO in the 1980s and 1990s (attributed the CO2 of course). Any surprise with a negative 2 STD PDO and La Ninas, it is brutally cold again.
How will all of this play out in February and March???
BTW, instead of taking a PR cruise to Antarctica during their late summer to see melting ice maybe Hansen, Gore and Trenberth should go to Alaska in mid winter to see their fairy tale collapse as they freeze their tails.
Here in CA – False Spring will be followed by a world of hurt. It’s going to be a bad year for ag. This cold / dry stuff is horrible. I think the type year for this would be something like … 1976!
Argh!
While you blokes have been arguing the toss. I’ve put me money where me mouth is.
Those dirty little coal stocks are ganna make me rich..
Greenhouse? Suckers, youse live in a refrigerator.
SteveSadlov says:
January 26, 2012 at 11:38 am
“Here in CA – False Spring will be followed by a world of hurt. It’s going to be a bad year for ag. This cold / dry stuff is horrible. I think the type year for this would be something like … 1976! Argh!”
Spot on. We have seen False Springs before.
“First, this isn’t a “time of quiet sun”…if you haven’t noticed, we’re headed toward a solar max in a little over a year or so.”
So far it is a feeble solar max and you have to consider the trends on a multidecadal basis over several solar cycles .
” a large mass of warm air bubbled up from the troposphere into the stratosphere, ”
Such bubbles have a more prominent effect if they occur at a time of warming stratosphere rather than at a time of cooling stratosphere such as the late 20th century.
Louise says:
January 26, 2012 at 11:28 am
“It wouldn’t be ‘noise’ if it was inclining *up though would it Louise?”
Of course it would – any change over 1 month is noise, up or down. Nobody really suggests that a change over 1 month means anything at all surely?
Reply————————-
The lunar declinational tides in the atmosphere on both the 27.32 and 13.6 day periods show up well in the graph posted by Ryan, Maximum North culmination on the 6th January, crossing the equator headed south on the 13th, maximum South on the 20th, crossing the equator headed North on the 26th, and maximum North on the 3rd of February, all show nice little troughs (when crossing the equator) and bumps while at maximum culmination with both primary and secondary tidal bulges nicely represented.
http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/gfs_t2m_bias.png
It is nice to see so easily the pulses in the atmospheric cooling as the moon pumps heat off of the equator to the poles for release to space. Not all “noise” is insignificant.
Dr Maue’s graph appears to be at 2 meters above ground level.
I can’t follow, what stratospheric warming would explain that.
The 1 month drop appears to be the largest for decades.
Weather is the new climate?.. Now we’re looking at monthly averages to assess ever-changing climate it seems. And oh, don’t forget the ubiquitous reader’s comment about this cold snap or this heat wave in his own particular city, or county or even state if he sees big.
Could be the steepest 1 month drop in 150 years
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/derivative
When are they going to stop using those lousy map projections that make the polar regions look many times bigger and more important than they are in reality?
R. Gates. First, this isn’t a “time of quiet sun”…if you haven’t noticed
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Real eyes realize real lies:
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_256_4500.jpg
in case you hadn’t noticed.
regarding the satellite photo of sea ice: That isn’t the ice you are looking for. Move along.
Are you saying the sun isn’t quiet right now or future activity is affecting the current temps?
Who is this “new Dr. Ryan Maue”? Is he as cool as the old one?
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/Ap.gif
Background:
Solar geomagnetic index reaches unprecedented low – only “zero” could be lower – in a month when sunspots became more active
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/07/suns-magnetic-index-reaches-unprecedent-low-only-zero-could-be-lower-in-a-month-when-sunspots-became-more-active/
I still say that to predict climate long-term you need to look at long-term history. The best I have seen is the moving monthly mean trend rate based on 30 year intervals. Study the plot at the foot of my Home page* and you can see these key facts ….
(1) The rate of increase was about 0.6 deg.C / decade for the 30 years ending Dec 1930
(2) That rate of increase has now reduced to about 0.5 deg.C / decade for the last 30 years (see yellow trend line)
Projecting the declining trend line would indicate …
(a) The likely increase in temperatures by 2100 should be under 1 degree
(b) A long term (~1000 year) maximum may be likely before 2200 when the trend line for the rate of increase passes through zero. (It may start to decline faster if it is cyclic.)
These figures are based on sea surface temperatures which are a better indicator than any which weight land by about 30% because the oceans have about 15 times the thermal energy of the land and should be weighted accordingly. When will someone produce figures that weight land and sea surface in this sort of ratio?
* http://climate-change-theory.com
Joachim Seifert says:
January 26, 2012 at 12:06 pm
That’s what I was thinking but uncertain due to the timing of this phenomena. Does such transition of El Nino into a jet stream of warm air occur in the end of every El Nino-period and does it have a name?
Correction: Sorry I left out a zero – those figures in (1) & (2) should be 0.06 deg.C/decade and in (2) 0.05 deg.C/decade. (Note that these are the figures for the trend line, not the actual rates. The trend effectively adjusts for the 60 year cycle.)
Apparently the Arctic oscillation is set to dip negative for the first time this winter. Is there still time to get any serious snow at the western end of Europe? If not my daughters will be disappointed.
R. Gates says:
January 26, 2012 at 10:49 am
Utilidades says:
January 26, 2012 at 9:14 am
Good and complete Information about climate
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Good, though incomplete information about weather would be more accurate.
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Be nice to the newbies, they know not where they have entered.
Good job.
@Pethefin says:
January 26, 2012 at 11:25 am
“Take a closer look at the CDAS 10-hPa Temp Anoms-animation. The warmth pops up just outside the Japanese coast and then spreads to north then east and west. What caused this warm pop-up in mid December?”
Maybe to do with the cooling at the equator ? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mb2525.gif
This is NOT about weather.
The temperature decrease may be the largest since the little ice age and more than twice than any other decrease since 1960
and at the same time the solar geomagnetic index falls in percent terms by the largest amount for decades (or ever 😉 ).
This puts Svensmark theory into the driver’s seat of climate science.
Monthly temperature variation
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/derivative
Ap Index since 2000
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/Ap.gif
Long Term Ap Index:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/ap-index-1932-2008.png
Last year, the temp anomaly for Jan was -0.01. The avg temp this year for the first 24 days of Jan compared to last year is about 0.09 colder. I’m just averaging the daily figures from the level 05 graph at Dr. Spencer’s site. It’s about 0.1 warmer than 2008. Not that this will be the final figure, but it does give us a good idea what kind of anomaly we could expect. The free fall has ceased and temps are rising slightly. If that trend continues, I’d guess an anomaly of between -0.05 to -0.1 would be likely. If it stays around current levels, -0.1 to -0.15 would be likely. But the next couple months bear watching for sure. Could be large negative anomalies for those months if there is no real warming trend from the current level.
I sure would have liked to obtained an air sample just above the water off the stern of the ice breaker that recently arrived in Nome ahead of the fuel tanker. I would liked to have known what the CO2 concentration was. I would also like to have had a sample of sea water for the same purpose and then compared those measurements to another sample set from say, Seattle, Long Beach, and/or Tampa.
It’s Anthropogenic Climate Disruption! Just as
guessedprojectedpredicted.R. Gates says:
January 26, 2012 at 11:34 am
“I will be more interested to see how strong of an El Nino we get around the time of the actual Solar Max 24, as this extra forcing coming from two sources will give a boost to global temperatures and the best chance to set new instrument record global temperatures.”
That can only be from one source as El Nino episodes are a response to a drop in solar activity. If we get an El Nino at solar cycle maximum it will be at the Ap drop that is typical at solar max.