Joe D’Aleo reports via email that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Index has gone negative for this past month, see the graph below:
Source:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data
This is the first time the November value has been negative since about 1996. It appears the down cycle has started. This portends a cooler period, especially winters.
The Monthly value plot also shows the down cycle in progress, though this one is only updated to 2009:
The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, North America and Europe such as North Eastern Brazilian and African Sahel rainfall and North American and European summer climate. It is also associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes.
| Matt Vooro writes in this document: AMO, THE KEY GLOBAL CLIMATE INDICATOR |
The main climate indicator (in my opinion in the near term) is likely going to be the cool AMO, cool PDO. ENSO events and the changing polar jet stream which swings more often now north before coming south or heading east, bringing cold air to most of North America, and specially the western half and subsequently east, as the our climate moves from west to east.
The graph below shows the relationship between AMO and GLOBAL [ land and marine] TEMPERATURE ANOAMLIES [Hadcrut 3]. AMO appears to be like a thermostat or predictor of global temperatures. ENSO events if moderate or strong seem to modify, amplify or over-ride the AMO effects.
There are interesting times ahead.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Ruh, roh!
Not to question his statement but here I go anyway. Using the data source cited below the graphic, the AMO has been negative in Nov 1999 and Nov 2000.
It was also negative in part of 2002 and 2009. Since AMO seems to be more of a 30 yr cycle and due to the fact that there have been several short negative periods of AMO during longer term cycles of positive AMO, I’d be a bit hesitant to say we are on the downhill side of positive AMOs just yet…maybe around 2020 it starts to look more interesting. Then we can start thinking -PDO and -AMO = Brrrrrr…..
Peter Berger says:
December 9, 2011 at 1:35 pm
…
-99.990 = no data available.
General direction of the AMO is predictable long in advance by observing changes in the Icelandic atmospheric pressure.
See: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/64/12/35/PDF/NorthAtlanticOscillations-I.pdf
page 8.
Now all we have to do is figure out how the monotonically increasing CO2 concentration is causing the AMO to oscillate. And by we I mean the Luddites.
Can someone overlay the AMO and the temperature record, so I can get a handle on this?
So as the AMO goes negative it is getting colder (1950-1970 was cooler), but during the negative phase the temperature is actually reversing and getting warmer (1980 – 2000 was warmer). So this initial dive into negative should be combined with cooling.
.
Makes me think of that Tibetan tree ring study that was posted about yesterday. The one that said we would cool off until 2068.
Interesting times indeed.
DRE says:
December 9, 2011 at 2:24 pm
“Now all we have to do is figure out how the monotonically increasing CO2 concentration is causing the AMO to oscillate. And by we I mean the Luddites.”
According to the best mainstream climate science, CO2 concentrations have various character traits. The present concentration is moving into its “shy” character. That is the reason that the AMO is headed down. She reacts to shyness with frigidity.
Joe /Anthony
You may want to check your records again about who really wrote the original article ,AMO, THE KEY GLOBAL CLIMATE INDICATOR back in July 2009
Well, while I see a good deal of correlation, I don’t see the AMO being a precursor, but rather a mirror…..
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1940/mean:12/plot/esrl-amo/from:1940/mean:12
Here is the AMO versus the RSS/UAH lower troposphere temps. Certainly, a semi-interesting close relationship.
http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/7660/rssuahvsamo.png
The AMO (which is a detrended index) versus Hadcrut3 on the same detrended basis. Also, a semi-interesting close relationship.
http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/9449/hacrut3detrendedandthea.png
And here is last weeks numbers for the AMO (-0.111C) , ENSO (-1.13C) and global SSTs (+0.019C) and where I think they are going over the next 6 months.
http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/1716/weeklyenamosstnov3011.png
Next up……Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Cooling??
Jon Jewett says:
December 9, 2011 at 1:04 pm
…..I read somewhere that an estimated 220,000 children starved to death last year. One of the “root causes” of the revolutions in the mid-east was the high price of food. When you can’t feed your children, it tends to make one restive. And we turn some 40% of our corn production into fuel and burn it even though we have enough fossil fuels for maybe a couple of hundred years…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
That probably would have been me.
A quick and dirty look at the politics (with much left out) http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/13/borlaug-2-0/#comment-767575
Peter Berger says: “keep an eye on the the linked data file, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data
-99.990 ?!?”
Peter, the number -99.990 is simply a way for the dataset supplier to indicate that there’s no data available for that month or period. Some websites like the KNMI Climate Explorer use -999.9000. They use the unrealistic value to get your attention when you try to plot them or use them some other way.
Great research (grant) opportunities for anyone who wants to study how man-made CO2 emissions caused the AMO to go negative.
Or you can Hide The Decline, find The Missing Heat, and pre-declare 2012 though 2021 The Hottest Decade in the History of the Solar System! Could even turn into a BBC miniseries!
Mike Smith says:
December 9, 2011 at 1:19 pm
We’re doomed I tell you. The Ice Age cometh.
Please send me $2 trillion of taxpayer money to research the devastating climate impact and formulate plans for mitigation so I can save the planet…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Nah, They did that study in the 1970’s. That is why the big money is moving out of the USA, and EU and headed for warm sunny climes and taking their manufacturing with them.
Politics and Science time lines SEE: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/07/in-china-there-are-no-hockey-sticks/#comment-824265
The Monthly value plot also shows the down cycle in progress, though this one is only updated to 2009:
———
Assuming the AMO is a real cycle the we would expect some degree of periodicity.
Comparing this peak with the last 2 peaks it’s clear we are only half way through the current peak.
So to say the current drop off is a sign of the end of the AMO is wrong. The current dropoff is just random variation. Which is very clear if you look at the rest if the series.
Smoothed long format gives you a better idea….late 1850’s..
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.sm.long.data
“Seriously though, doesn’t this portend the end of climate alarmism?”
Not until they run out of your money.
matt v. says:
December 9, 2011 at 2:34 pm
Joe /Anthony
“You may want to check your records again about who really wrote the original article ,AMO, THE KEY GLOBAL CLIMATE INDICATOR back in July 2009”
It appeared on “Joe’s Blog” at http://icecap.us – “Joe” being Joe D’Aleo.
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/amo_the_key_global_climate_indicator
Mystery solved. You’re welcome.
The graph below shows the relationship between AMO and GLOBAL [ land and marine] TEMPERATURE ANOAMLIES [Hadcrut 3]. AMO appears to be like a thermostat or predictor of global temperatures.
———–
And the graph shows no relationship.
Drawing a couple of trend lines on very noisy data over a short time span proves nothing whatsoever.
I could plot women’s skirt lengths and global temperatures on the same graph and maybe get “proof” that womens fashion affects climate or that women prefer being cold. It would be just as valid as what is presented here by Joe.
Bill Illis says:
December 9, 2011 at 2:44 pm
“……….and where I think they are going over the next 6 months.”
============
Bill, i always pay careful attention to your posts.
Keep them coming.
I also like this:
” When men speak of the future, the Gods laugh.”
Proverb, Chinese
We, like it or not, are only along for the ride.
I’ll second what Durr said, and add that cooling really really sucks for anyone who was thinking of planting a small vineyard in one of the northern states. Oh well, time to buy a ski-doo.
LazyTeenager says:
December 9, 2011 at 3:09 pm
“…So to say the current drop off is a sign of the end of the AMO is wrong. The current dropoff is just random variation. Which is very clear if you look at the rest if the series.”
That’s very Skeptical of you, LT. How does it feel?
ShrNfr says:
December 9, 2011 at 1:26 pm
This is usually a 30 year leading indicator of next ice age articles in the “popular” press.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
We are fine with a cold PDO, AMO, La Nina and lethargic sun… As long is we do not get some major volcanoes added to the mix.
YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO: “During the month of November 2011, 51 earthquakes were located in the Yellowstone National Park region… No swarms were recorded in November.
Yellowstone earthquake activity continues at relatively low background levels.
Slow subsidence of the caldera, which began in early 2010, continues….. http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/activity/index.php
56 volcanoes that had confirmed eruptions during 2011 so far: http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/find_eruptions.cfm
Alaska/Russian: http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/avoreport.php?view=kaminfo
Icelandic earthquakes: http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/
Gives you the warm fuzzies doesn’t it.