It's Worse Than We Thought… Again… "Warming may be irreversible by 2017"

This was in our guest author queue, but I was never notified of its existence. Better late than never. – Anthony

Guest post by David Middleton…

EA: Warming may be irreversible by 2017

Published: Nov. 11, 2011

LONDON, Nov. 11 (UPI) — Rising energy demands could result in irreversible global warming by 2017 without strict new standards, an energy watchdog group said this week in London.

The International Energy Agency said in its latest World Energy Outlook, released Wednesday, that a “remarkable” 5 percent jump in global primary energy demand last year pushed greenhouse gas emissions to a new high due to the rebound of the world’s economies following the 2008 financial crisis.

And that, it said, bodes ill for efforts to reach a long-term target of limiting the global average temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — especially with moves by governments to shift resources away from developing clean energy technologies as more economic problems arise.

“Without further action by 2017, the energy-related infrastructure then in place would generate all the CO2 emissions allowed” to keep the temperature rise at 2 degrees or lower, the report said

[…]

LINK

What warming?

HadCRUT3 variance adjusted global mean temperature anomaly, 12-month average. Source: Wood for Trees.
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Al Gored
December 5, 2011 3:42 pm

It is true. The UK’s Met Office has confirmed how bad things are:
05 Dec 2011
“The Met Office’s Hadley Centre has today added to the flurry of recent reports warning of potentially catastrophic climate impacts if urgent action is not taken to try to limit global average temperature rises to 2º Centigrade.”
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2130139/met-office-report-warns-soaring-climate-risks
So, with this slam dunk research by top experts, looks like the debate is over. Thank goodness this confirmation came out in time for Durban.

crosspatch
December 5, 2011 4:00 pm

Oh, yes, absolutely SOARING risks. Don’t you feel much more afraid now and willing to do whatever they say in order to avoid that SOARING risk? Think of the children!

Nic L
December 5, 2011 4:06 pm

Nice photo to go with the story.
“Taken from the US Coastguard Icebreaker Healey.”
Ice Breaker – In Summer ?

DT
December 5, 2011 4:13 pm

How many deadlines have already passed? Anyone keeping track?

Al Gored
December 5, 2011 4:32 pm

crosspatch. It is worse than you think. These soaring risks are unprecedented. Risks never used to soar. Now, like soaring hawks, they are rising due to all the hot air which is, of course, a result of unprecendented catastrophic runaway extreme climate change disruption caused by greedy immoral lizard brained capitalists, and their ilk.
Just like Tutu said.

Gail Combs
December 5, 2011 4:54 pm

Curiousgeorge says:
December 5, 2011 at 11:23 am
….Excuse me? What “rebound” are they talking about? Entire nations are about to go bankrupt. Millions are out of work and quit looking just in the USA. Energy policy related to fossil fuel is being written to ensure the de-industrialization of the planet. And all the while, taxpayers are being scammed by govt’s pushing expensive light bulbs, intermittent and unreliable energy technologies, and electric golf carts at enormous cost. What is wrong with these morons?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
There is nothing wrong with the “Morons” Everything is going according to plan. (Sustainability = UN Agenda 21)
You can not institute “Global Governance” without first demolishing the United States and Europe economically and the EU and WTO were specifically instituted to do so. You also need a horrible world crisis to convince everyone that we have to have a WORLD government to solve it. Enter CAGW stage left.
Our kids are already being taught to be “World Citizens” why the heck do you think the flag and the pledge of allegiance has been attacked and pretty much removed from schools?

The Global Schools Network
…The Global Schools Network will focus on creating education systems with a deep commitment to international education and 21st century student preparation, leveraging those extraordinary systems to attract multi-national businesses and international investment to local communities.
Key Objectives
* Create education systems that are deeply committed to highly effective, sustainable international education and student preparation for college and careers.
* Leverage extraordinary education systems to attract multi-national businesses and international investment to local communities.
* Prepare students with the global skills and knowledge required to compete in an increasingly interconnected world.
*Improve teacher retention by providing unique professional development opportunities that prepare teachers to deliver globally-infused curriculum.
http://globalschoolsnetwork.org/

While we were not looking our politicians decided to sellout our nations. The USA and the nations of Europe no longer exist except in the minds of old people.
Of What Use Global Governance? by Pascal Lamy, Director, World Trade Organization (WTO). https://theglobaljournal.net/article/view/56/
Acquired through a FOIA request ~ CIA document Global Governance 2025: http://www.foia.cia.gov/2025/2025_Global_Governance.pdf
Welcome to the National Intelligence Council (NIC) The National Intelligence Council is pleased to release Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture…. https://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_home.html
I am very much afraid we have awakened too late and our grandchildren will curse our names.

matt v.
December 5, 2011 4:57 pm

“Warming may be irreversible by 2017″ because by 2017 the planet will be cooling and further plunging into a 30 year cool phase. These same individuals will be telling ” Cooling will be irreversible unless we restart and refire those fossil fuel furnaces “. Just wait as the 2011-2012 winter unfolds in the new year.The Pacific and Atlantic oceans are cooling and it is only a matter of time before the Northern Hemisphere will have weather like the late 1970’s. Several inland areas have already experienced this extra cold weather for the last 3-5 winters .

KTWO
December 5, 2011 5:11 pm

2017? Sounds like the new 5 year plan is ready for prime time.

crosspatch
December 5, 2011 5:14 pm

Explain to me why the earlier rise is natural and the more recent one isn’t
I didn’t think he would.

Larry Fields
December 5, 2011 5:31 pm

“Warming may be irreversible by 2017″
Oh yeah, what about the Klingon invasion in 2016 that’s predicted by Psychic Larry? Without exaggerating, the evidence for that is every bit as good as the evidence for CAGW. We desperately need to allocate trillions of dollars for space-based weapons, for tribbles (to detect stealth Klingons who’ve had plastic surgery), and for other countermeasures. By the way, I volunteer, to be the administrator for that particular U.N. agency. Moderator, do I really need a sarc tag here?

Old England
December 5, 2011 5:32 pm

Don’t all panic at once … the EU economies will, as they say in Ireland, be fecked for the next few years so not a lot of chance of emissions rising as a result of the EU economies. The euro is likely to disappear and the EU (God willing) will disintegrate leaving the marxist EU politburo wondering what to do next. The last thing on their mind then will be the global warming scam – apart from it’s tax raising powers.

TerryT
December 5, 2011 5:34 pm

Meanwhile in Sydney we’re wondering wtf happened to summer.
“Yesterday Sydney had its lowest December minimum for 16 years, with the morning temperature dropping to 11.8 degrees. Katoomba almost froze, and at 2.4 degrees experienced its lowest December minimum on record. It’s the coldest first week in December since 1960.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/everyones-got-cold-feet-and-brides-are-getting-nervous-20111205-1ofjo.html#ixzz1fiKeCwPi

Curiousgeorge
December 5, 2011 5:37 pm

Gail, thanks for the links. I’m aware of Agenda 21, but the others I’d not heard about. I hope you know that my morons question was rhetorical. 😉
As for global governance, that’s been a dream of various conquerors for a few thousand years of course. A couple even came pretty close to it, in terms of the then known world.

David Falkner
December 5, 2011 5:52 pm

Will the 1/3rd of the stations shown to be cooling in the Berkley analysis be permanently cooling then? Inquiring minds want to know.

Gail Combs
December 5, 2011 6:02 pm

crosspatch says:
December 5, 2011 at 11:53 am
And the point of my bringing that entire “Climate, Mind and Behavior Program” into this thread is to place this particular news story about the “irreversible” melting of the ice into that context. It is designed to be manipulative by making people afraid so they will buy in to the deal……
___________________________
The worst part is even if the people do not “Buy into the deal” they will just shove it down our throats any way.
The carbon fiasco in Australia is an excellent example and the Food Safety Modernization Act 2010passed during the lame duck section and the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 enacted December 23.
Heck all they need is a very vocal mob like Occupy Wall Street and a stinking lying media to convince people that the “Majority” want carbon taxes to “Save the Earth”
Here are examples of how the Media twists things:
While Rasmussen polls say “69% Say It’s Likely Scientists Have Falsified Global Warming Research” http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/environment_energy/69_say_it_s_likely_scientists_have_falsified_global_warming_research
The general News Media is broadcasting.

Poll watcher: Republicans split on global warming;
Belief in global warming has recovered somewhat this year after a sharp falloff in 2008 and 2009, according to a new survey from the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press released Thursday. Currently, 63 percent of Americans say there is “solid evidence” that the earth’s temperature has increased in past decades….
More than six in 10 moderate or liberal Republicans in the new poll say there is solid evidence of global warming (up 22 points from 2009), while barely three in 10 conservative Republicans say the same. And while 30 percent of Republicans who agree with the tea party believe in global warming, that jumps to 56 percent of non-tea party Republicans. Democrats continue to be the strongest believers – over three quarters say there is solid evidence…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/behind-the-numbers/post/poll-watcher-republicans-split-on-global-warming-health-care-reform-and-gop-intensity/2011/12/01/gIQAAfMcHO_blog.html

Notice how the News Media has twisted the wording from “63 percent of Americans say there is “solid evidence” that the earth’s temperature has increased in past decades…” which the majority of skeptics here at WUWT agree with to “… believe in global warming” inferring a belief in CAGW.
The Council on Foreign Relations goes even further

….On the domestic front, a majority of U.S. citizens (58 percent in a 2009 WPO poll) believe the United States is not doing enough to address global warming and want it to commit to new international goals. Indeed, support for some actions has actually climbed since the start of the global financial crisis. In a Yale poll in May 2011, 66 percent of Americans endorsed signing an international treaty “that requires the United States to cut its emissions of carbon dioxide 90 percent by the year 2050.” In a 2010 poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs (CCGA), 62 percentof U.S. respondents favored “a new international institution or agency” to monitor countries’ compliance with treaty obligations to cut greenhouse gas emissions. At the national level, Americans endorse a variety of schemes to reduce U.S. emissions. Eighty percent of Americans in a 2010 CCGA poll, for instance, favored “tax incentives to encourage the development and use of alternative energy sources, such as solar or wind power.” Another 80 percent “supported increasing the availability of local public transportation and 77 percent supported installing bike lanes on city streets, according to a May 2011 Yale poll. Finally, 76 percent agreed that the “U.S. government should limit the amount of climate change gases businesses can produce” in a June 2010 Stanford poll…..
http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2011/11/30/public-more-willing-than-politicians-to-address-climate-change/

Where in heaven are they pulling these numbers from? Polls taken only on college campuses? I would throw int the towel after reading this garbage if I did not know better.
The Blair-Rockefeller poll shows how questions can be twitsed to get the desired answers. (I have access to the questions)
The University of Arkansas press release of JUNE 21, 2011 states: The Tea Party is Not the Same as the Grand Old Party
Tea Party marked by negative views on health care, race and future
….Maxwell’s report, titled
“Tea Party Distinguished by Racial Views and Fear of the Future,” was drawn from the first Blair-Rockefeller Poll, conducted in November 2010. In the report, Maxwell delineates demographics, characteristics and policy preferences of the Tea Party movement….
The press release of course lead to all the news media labeling the Tea Party as “Racist”
Yet when you dig into the report and questions you find:

Race Consciousness and Divergent Views about Equality are Characteristic of Tea Party.
….. When the sample is restricted to only White respondents,
Tea Party distinctions on racial issues are clearer. Specifically, Tea Party members are more likely to believe that job, school, housing, and health equity are not the responsibility of the federal government. Nearly two-thirds (62.8%) of White Tea Party members think “we have gone too far in pushing equal rights in this country.” ….
TABLE 2. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TEA PARTY WHITES & NON-TEA PARTY WHITES NATIONWIDE
Do you think it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure that minorities have job equality with Whites, even if it means you will have to pay more taxes?
Do you think it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure that minorities have schools equal in quality to Whites, even if it means you have to pay more taxes?
Do you think it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure that minorities have housing equal in quality to Whites, even if it means you have to pay more taxes?
Do you think it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure that minorities have health care services equal to Whites, even if it means you have to pay more taxes?
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: We have gone too far in pushing equal rights in this country?
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Our society should do whatever is necessary to make sure that everyone has an equal opportunity to succeed.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Thinking about Barack Obama’s religious beliefs… Do you happen to know what Barack Obama’s religion is? (Christian)
Thinking about Barack Obama’s religious beliefs… Do you happen to know what Barack Obama’s religion is? (Muslim)
http://blairrockefellerpoll.uark.edu/5295.php

Again this is a subtle wording of the questions to twist the meaning. It is well known the Tea Party wants a curb in spending and a much smaller government. Therefore ANY question started with “Do you think it is the responsibility of the federal government…” is likely to be answered NO! Dislike of Obama also has about as much to do with race as the liberals dislike of Bush Cain has to do with race.

crosspatch
December 5, 2011 6:08 pm

When people begin to rail about how humans would drive the atmosphere into something uninhabitable due to burning of some fossil fuel, I am reminded of this article:

What lessons can be learned about climate change from events nearly a half billion years ago, when life on our planet was much different than it is today? To start with, the dramatic swings in global temperature during the last half of the Ordovician required massive amounts of CO2, some 20 times the amount in our atmosphere today. To generate that much CO2, our planet had to undergo one of the greatest volcanic outbreaks in the history of life on Earth. Mountain ranges were raised and then eroded, with their remains forming sediments at the bottom of the sea. Yet life carried on.
Granted, it would not have been pleasant to live through the events of 450 million years ago. They should serve as a reminder of the gigantic forces that are required to cause dramatic changes in the world’s climate. Some have claimed that this study reinforces the notion that CO2 levels in the atmosphere are a major driver of Earth’s climate. CO2 can cause global warming, but only at 10-20 times today’s levels. Anyone who thinks that man’s puny efforts can push Earth’s climate system into irreversible and unprecedented change does not understand the history of our planet. Anyone who thinks that anthropogenic global warming caused by human CO2 emissions is a big deal need only gaze upon the worn down bones of the Appalachians, a mountain range once as tall and as rugged as the Alps, to understand mankind’s insignificance.

http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/appalachian-mountains-rock-ice-age
The more CO2 you put into the atmosphere, the faster nature will remove it.

Pamela Gray
December 5, 2011 6:23 pm

Crosspatch: If someone has figured out how to influence and direct the next generation, sign me freakin up for that seminar. I couldn’t influence my teens to open their mouths when presented with food, let alone influence what they believed. And neither could their teachers.

crosspatch
December 5, 2011 6:45 pm

Pamela, if they have alternative information, I would agree with you. I would be willing to make a bet with you. Offer to give an assembly at your local school with a lecture on the “uncertainties surrounding Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming” (or is it now SOARINGLY Catastrophic … I don’t recall) and see how quickly your request would be denied. In California, the teachers union runs the school and the curriculum in the public schools and it is the same in many other states. The teachers would not stand for it. One reason is that it would go against the curriculum they are teaching. The LAST thing these teachers want is students questioning their lessons on AGW.
The teachers union and most of the rest of academia is very supportive of the “progressive” agenda. CAGW is the issue that enables much of the underlying policies and concepts of the progressive agenda. Because the atmosphere is global, it requires the enabling of some sort of world governance to “fight” it on a global scale even if there is no possible way that human beings could cause the sort of problems they predict even if we dumped every single bit of fuel we had into the air ( and a volcano erupted through an oil field and coal seam at exactly the same time). The CAGW crowd even wants us to believe we will “saturate” natures ability to remove CO2 from the atmosphere in the face of direct historical information that when Earth had CO2 levels 20 times today’s levels, the impact was for it to be scrubbed out even FASTER.

Gail Combs
December 5, 2011 6:45 pm

jntkwx says:
December 5, 2011 at 3:08 pm
You can’t use a graph of only 10 years of data to talk about climate change. Climate needs to be discussed in terms of several decades, if not centuries.
Here is the same data used in that graph (HadCRUT3 Temperature Anomaly) since the 1860s http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif (source: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/)
___________________________________
I prefer Lucy ‘s graph it tells the story much better: http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Images/ice-HS/noaa_gisp2_icecore_anim_adj.gif

Gail Combs
December 5, 2011 6:54 pm

TerryT says:
December 5, 2011 at 5:34 pm
Meanwhile in Sydney we’re wondering wtf happened to summer.
“Yesterday Sydney had its lowest December minimum for 16 years, with the morning temperature dropping to 11.8 degrees. Katoomba almost froze, and at 2.4 degrees experienced its lowest December minimum on record. It’s the coldest first week in December since 1960.
_______________________________
SEE Julia Gillard’s Carbon Tax is already working. It is MAGIC!

crosspatch
December 5, 2011 6:56 pm

Gail, even in the link he provided, there is clearly warming of the same rate and magnitude as the most recent spell but that 30 year period was “natural” and the most recent 30 year period was “anthropogenic”. Weird.

Gail Combs
December 5, 2011 7:00 pm

Curiousgeorge says:
December 5, 2011 at 5:37 pm
Gail, thanks for the links. I’m aware of Agenda 21, but the others I’d not heard about. I hope you know that my morons question was rhetorical. 😉 …
___________________________
Yes but I prefer knaves for polite company..

Editor
December 5, 2011 7:04 pm

Speaking of “what warming”, the November data from RSS is just in at ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_3.txt Can someone confirm my quickie spreadsdsheet linear trendline analysis? I get a negative slope using RSS monthly data from March 1997 to November 2011. That’s over 14 years of global cooling, approaching 15 years.
Another interesting item in the latest RSS data, it looks like 2011 will be cooler than 1995, unless the December anomaly spikes up to +0.245 or higher. Again, can people please check the data at the URL above to confirm my numbers?
Month 1995 2011
==================
Jan 0.178 0.085
Feb 0.133 0.051
Mar 0.037 -0.028
Apr 0.248 0.106
May 0.131 0.125
Jun 0.164 0.297
Jul 0.044 0.328
Aug 0.285 0.286
Sep 0.324 0.287
Oct 0.204 0.089
Nov 0.209 0.033
Dec -0.053

old44
December 5, 2011 7:09 pm

AGW has had more farewells than John Farnham and Nellie Melba put together.

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