Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
In the run-up to the next-to-last big meeting of the UNFCCC (United Nations Frequent Climate Change Carnival) held in Copenhagen in 2009, I showed the following graph under the title “Why Copenhagen Will Achieve Nothing”
Figure 1. Carbon Emissions 1970-2006 by Region, and Global (red).
At that time it was clear that if the entire industrialized world cut back to 1980 emission levels, the climbing global emissions would scarcely change.
We are now coming up on the 17th UN Climate Change Carnival … so many clowns … so few circuses. This Carnival will be held in Durban, South Africa. How have CO2 emissions evolved since the Copenhagen Carnival? The latest figures are just in. Many electrons are being sacrificed in anguish about the numbers. “Record High 2010 Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Combustion and Cement Manufacture Posted on CDIAC Site” shouts the headline from … well, that’s actually the self-referential headline on the CDIAC page itself. The CDIAC site says that the CDIAC site says that the CDIAC site says that a record …
Our friends at the UK Guardian newspaper enthuse that “Greenhouse gases rise by record amount.” Elsewhere the hype rises roughly proportionally with the distance from understanding what the numbers actually mean.
So how did we set this new record for carbon emissions? Figure 2 shows the information from the CDIAC site.
Figure 2. Changes in emissions from 2008 to 2010.
Hmmm …
In interpreting these numbers, it is useful to remember that carbon emissions measure what is generally called “development” —access to all of the good things that energy brings to the citizens of the country. Medicine, and food, and shelter from the sun, and heat when its cold, and transportation, and communications, and refrigeration, and farm tractors … the list is long. It’s development, and it runs on and is synonymous with energy.
So when the developed world asks India and China and Brazil and Indonesia to cut back on carbon emissions, we’re asking them to cut back on developing their country’s health and well-being and infrastructure and manufacturing … good luck selling them that line of what my step-grandpa used to call “bull-dust” …
Remember that the Kyoto Protocol expires soon. The dream of the carbon alarmists is to extend Kyoto. They want to see a new set of global binding restrictions on the increase in carbon emissions. That is to say, they want to see binding restrictions on the increase in energy use in the developing world.
Me, I think that is one of the most inhumane proposals ever floated. The great masses of India and China and Brazil and the rest are finally clawing their way out of abject poverty, and the carbon alarmists want to put binding restrictions on their access to energy?!? Get real! The good news is, they will never, never agree to that. That carbon is what is fueling, quite literally, their rise out of the mire.
In addition, consider that agreements like Kyoto keep energy use from increasing. That approach sounds reasonable, at first blush. And for the developed countries, that’s not much problem, our use is plenty high already. But for China and India and the like? It means we’re saying they can’t ever catch up with us. I can assure you that they see the rank hypocrisy in that approach.
So if Kyoto is thankfully dead in a global sense, what does that leave? Well, I hate to be crass and crude about it but the bad news is that just leaves …
Money. Euros. Greenbacks. Simoleons. Follow the Benjamins.
What will happen in Durban is that the developing countries will pull out all of the stops to convince the developed world to give them money. We’ll hear endless heart-wrenching stories of climate refugees and dying reefs and ecological zones being uprooted and moved polewards without so much as a by-your-leave. And not forgetting, people in polar bear suits. Can’t have a UN Climate Change Carnival without polar bears.
And if history is any guide, in all probability, the carbon activists and quiche-eaters and Eurotrash we have representing the developed world will be unable to bear the guilt of actually being developed, and they will cave in to the demands and promise some money some time down the line … and then, thankfully, most countries likely won’t honor the promises, leading to diplomatic complaints and strongly worded protests.
(As an aside … Dear US Congress-Persons … can we stop funding the IPCC? They’re giving away the taxpayers’ money and getting nothing in return. That’s supposed to be your job, could you at least get rid of the competition? — TIA, willis.)
I leave it to the reader to consider further implications of these numbers. The sun is shining. I’m going outside to build something.
w.
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Gee Willis, at first I thought I saw a (carbon fibre) Hockey Stick! On further study I think it is actually a filthy great scythe seen from the side.
Willis wrote: “We are now coming up on the 17th UN Climate Change Carnival … so many clowns … so few circuses.”
I’m hoping these fine folks can hold off the competition.
http://worldclown.com/
At their next annual convention, they might want to discuss how to rein in the the Durban crowd as they are giving them a bad name.
@Anthony
Score one for Willis. This is exemplary original content posted nowhere else. It might not be grade A stuff but it’s better than copy & paste content and is worth its weight in bronze. It it went viral it would be worth its weight in gold. At the blog I used to run we had some occasional original viral posts but it was always our enemies that did it for us. There’s something to be said about making people angry on the internet. They talk about you and link to you and obsess over you. It’s far easier to be hated than loved and the former gets more publicity. Write that down!
Dave springer said:
“No, not yeast. The flute has more nucleation sites on the bottom of the glass due the way it is made (stem separately). Higher quality beer glasses have purposely made imperfections at the bottom in order to get the same visual effect in the bubbles”
Does this mean rocky seabeds cause more CO2 bubbles than sandy ones?
Dave Springer says:
November 9, 2011 at 12:22 pm
I love folks who come here and expend a lot of heat and steam and claims and research and words and ideas on a thread, toss out insults, claim the folks here just don’t understand their brilliant genius … and then for their grand dismount after all the gymnastics, they finish by claiming the thread is “boring”.
Boring? You’re sure not acting like you are bored … but heck, if boredom is your problem, Dave, there’s an easy cure … leave. There’s a big and exciting web just on the other side of the door marked “EXIT”, with lots of folks waiting eagerly for you to show them the error of their ways, and perhaps even hoping you’ll explain to them how the evil West is responsible for every atom of the increase in Chinese CO2.
w.
… perhaps apocryphally, the story is that the proprietor of “Ripley’s Believe It Or Not” museum was having trouble because people just wanted to stay and stay and stay, looking at the oddities. So he put up one of those revolving doors that you can’t return through, along with a big sign pointing to the door saying:
THIS WAY TO SEE THE EGRESS!! =====>
Jay,
Your presentation of what Dr. muller says is interesting. But it it based on flawed data. It shows Mankind’s emissions as reported by forms and reports to bureaucrats that reveal real what Man has emitted. It does not record what the countries in question emit or sequester though.
No matter how hard they try, the bureaucrats can’t get the Oak, Birch and Alder and their brethren to fill out forms revealing how much CO2 that they sequester. Nor can they get the corn and wheat fields to turn in thee paperwork about how much CO2 they have absorbed, either. IOW they don’t have double entry bookkeeping showing both debits AND credits.
FACT: per the peer reviewed and published results of groups of Scientists working at Princeton University, who measured the CO2 in the air as it traversed North America from seas to sea, that North America emits less than zero amounts of CO2. We absorb more then we emit.
Our forests, harvested for lumber and paper, grow and absorb CO2. Our farms grow food and fiber and to do that, the growing plants absorb CO2.
To a lesser degree South America does too, as does Australia. Eurasia and Africa are the CO2 emitters.In South America, the Amazon is a mature forest, merely replacing what grew before, and has died, but the population is smaller and Mankind are lesser emitters.
So they too are NET Carbon Dioxide Sinks.
We have met the Kyoto targets without accepting the Treaty. Even if there really were some validity to CAGW, which there most certainly is not, it is someone else’s problem, not ours! Our job is completed and done.
To many replies to my replies to be able to address them all, but thanks. I want to say that I am a long time Greenie. I am also a scientist with no ties to any prejudices and have looked at the issue of AGW with an open mind. My conclusion is that most GW is caused by natural cycles (mainly solar).
The most important cycles (other than Milankovitch ones which affect longer term) are 2300 years, 208 years and about 50-60 years. The 208 year cycle was rising the entire 20th century and is now peaked out. The ~55 year cycle had peaks in ~1940 and ~1998 and so is also now falling. The 2300 year cycle has been and will be rising for hundreds of years.
I have examined the question of atmospheric CO2 and global temperature and find that there is evidence that temperature leads CO2 by 6 months. See http://cyclesresearchinstitute.wordpress.com/2011/06/23/which-causes-which-out-of-atmospheric-temperature-and-co2-content/
Despite all of the above, it would be foolish to believe that human activity has or will have no effect on climate and humans need to tidy up their act. Doing experiments on our environment that may cause disasters is insane. Much of our production of CO2 is connected with making stuff that will not improve anyone’s health, welfare or happiness. Human problems run very deep and connected with all sorts of mental impurities. There is no easy answer.
“Three quarters of the people in Mali live on less than $2 per day. You’ll likely have to notify them about how they’ve received so many things from the West, jobs and equipment and the like. They may not have noticed how fortunate they’ve been.”
The blame for this can hardly be placed at the footsteps of the “West.” The original poster’s point stands. They have received gifts from the western world in the form of knowledge that they probably would never have been able to accumulate themselves. What they do with it is up to them.
And this is the reality isn’t it? We are talking about a country with a class of people known as “the untouchables” – so you know the REAL problem runs very deep. Cultural and philosophical differences that cannot just be overcome through economic activity.
The truth being told, I don’t think it will ever change for the vast majority of these people – because their “world view” is substantially different from that of the West.
Ray Tomes makes a great point, many western countries had achieved good standards of living without a good deal of the things we have today and without global trade being what it is now. It’s *not* just “free enterprise” that is responsible for this.
@willis
The article is boring and there’s nothing I can do about that. But the comments are a living thing apart from the article.
[snip. Get the name right. ~dbs, mod.]
Ray Tomes says:
November 9, 2011 at 3:43 pm
“Despite all of the above, it would be foolish to believe that human activity has or will have no effect on climate and humans need to tidy up their act.”
Says you. Pffffffffffffffffffffffft.
“Doing experiments on our environment that may cause disasters is insane.”
It may avert disaster too. Duh.
“Much of our production of CO2 is connected with making stuff that will not improve anyone’s health, welfare or happiness.”
Bullcrap. People do little to nothing that doesn’t have a purpose and that purpose is almost universally making someone happier, themselves or others. You don’t get to judge what makes someone else happy. Got it? Write that down.
“Human problems run very deep and connected with all sorts of mental impurities”
.You’d know, ya fruitloop.
“There is no easy answer.”
You don’t even know what the question is. None of us do.
Dr.Mabuse says:
November 9, 2011 at 5:22 pm
“Ray Tomes makes a great point, many western countries had achieved good standards of living without a good deal of the things we have today and without global trade being what it is now.”
Yeah yeah yeah. Are you living in one of them yet? If not, why not? The average expected life span in Hong Kong is about 10 years longer than the U.S. That’s ten years per person of living standard that’s infinitely higher per person in the U.S. because one’s alive and the other is dead. How come we all don’t rush the exits to get there? I’ve been there so I can only answer for myself. Mebbe if you only answered for yourself and everybody else did the same we wouldn’t have so much friction. People tend to not like being told what they should and shouldn’t like, what they should and shouldn’t do, by the holier (or smarter or whatever) than thou crowd.
[snip. Get the name right. ~dbs, mod.]
If you must know the person I was addressing that last sentence to is named Wilma and that’s the correct spelling. It’s my lost sister’s third cousin twice removed on her aunt’s side.
Willis Eschenbach says:
November 9, 2011 at 1:11 pm
“They need the infrastructure to produce that ten trillion dollars worth of goods and services, you are absolutely correct.”
Of course I’m correct. That’s a given.
“But they only export about 14% of that ten trillion dollars of production. 86% of the manufacturing and the power and the water is for domestic use.”
If by “domestic use” you mean to feed, clothe, and house the little kids during the 8 hours a day they get to spend away from sewing together the sneakers that line the aisles at Academy Sports and Outdoors then I agree. You can’t exploit a huge slave labor force without at least providing them the bare necessities like food, clothing, and shelter.
So what’s your point?
Ray Tomes says:
November 9, 2011 at 3:43 pm
“Too many replies to my replies to be able to address them all, but thanks. I want to say that I am a long time Greenie. I am also a scientist with no ties to any prejudices and have looked at the issue of AGW with an open mind. My conclusion is that most GW is caused by natural cycles (mainly solar).”
No argument there
This differs from many other studies blogged about at WUWT. Maybe you can get a guest post? Seriously, I’d like to see it.
“Despite all of the above, it would be foolish to believe that human activity has or will have no effect on climate and humans need to tidy up their act.”
Are we talking beliefs or facts here? Regardless, most skeptics will likely agree with the opinion that human activities have some effect on climate. The questions are what effects? And how much effect? Is it better to mitigate or adapt? And what are the unintended consequences of our actions to stop those changes?
If we’re discussing CO2, the observed effects appear negligible and current atmospheric levels and rates of emissions. Land use changes appear to have an underestimated effect on climate. But land use changes are local and regional, and station siting is poor. The warming attributed the GHG emissions may be caused by local land-use changes and the effect exaggerated by bad data, poor modeling and bad analysis.
“Doing experiments on our environment that may cause disasters is insane. Much of our production of CO2 is connected with making stuff that will not improve anyone’s health, welfare or happiness.”
Really? How much? And what stuff? Do we need a Health, Welfare and Happiness Panel to determine what stuff should and should not be manufactured and purchased?
“Human problems run very deep and connected with all sorts of mental impurities.”
The Soviets used to believe that people could be perfected by perfecting society. They believed people are victims of their environment and circumstances. Crime, greed, sloth, mental illness, etc, could all be eliminated if people were conditioned properly. This is still a popular idea with many collectivists, statists, elitists and academics.
Besides, if think you mean impurities of our precious bodily fluids.
“There is no easy answer.”
That’s not a question.
More Soylent Green! says:
November 9, 2011 at 12:35 pm
“Slightly OT, but are you aware that President Barrack H. Obama never signed the Kyoto Protocol Treaty?”
The senate has to ratify any treaty before it goes to POTUS for signing into law. No president has even submitted it to the senate for consideration. Prior to negotiation of the it the senate passed a resolution saying the U.S. should not sign any treaty that failed to include binding targets for both developing and industrialized nations alike or anything that “would result in serious harm to the economy of the United States.”
It takes a 66% super-majority in the senate to ratify a treaty. There’s zero chance of that ever happening with Kyoto. Obama submitting it for ratification would be nothing more than a gesture. I’m not sure why he doesn’t make the gesture though.
Chuck Nolan says:
November 9, 2011 at 12:42 pm
“Dave, the internet sure makes it hard to lie.
And please don’t get me started with child labor in developing countries which is mostly beneficial.”
Oh please do get started defending child labor in communist China. Is the reason you don’t want to because it’s so hard for you to lie on the internet?
Chuck Nolan says:
November 9, 2011 at 12:32 pm
“So, you must agree with Willis and me that the growth in CO2 is not from exports but from massive LOCAL building.”
Part of it is from local buiding, sure. You can’t very well send people to work in factories if they’re dead because there isn’t enough water to grow rice or there isn’t enough electricity to light the factories.
“My guess is this increase is providing jobs which is helping people improve their lives.
You know, little things like eating most days and sleeping indoors.”
You say that like you believe that China is a democracy and people have a choice about where to work or how to live. Exactly what kind of internal fantasy have you constructed in that little head of yours about China? You think it’s like wherever you live only they don’t have as much money or something equally far removed from reality? They don’t even get a choice in how many children they can have, dummy. You have no clue, do you?
Willis Eschenbach says:
November 9, 2011 at 11:37 am
“I doubt that the Chinese dam and power plant building went up by that much in 2008-2010, but I’m happy for you to surprise me. My guess? Total Chinese expenditures on dams and coal plants represent less than one percent of their GDP … but like I said, I’m happy to be proven wrong.”
You’re so far from happy to be proven wrong you’ll go to any length or means necessary to avoid even the appearance of it.
You need to read more and write less. China famously undertook building the largest dam in the world in the past decade, the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River. Dams and power plants are metaphors for industrialization. China is industrializing on a huge scale after literally thousands of years of avoiding it. Enquriing minds might wonder why this is happening at this point in its history. Maybe all the people just woke up one day and said hey, wouldn’t it be great if we abandoned the pastoral lives we’ve been happy to lead for 4000 years and sat around in factories sewing sneakers and soldering parts into car radios? Warning: “sneakers and car radios” are metaphors representing international trade goods.
Your knee jerked predicatably when I quoted an article in Earth Magazine. Funny reaction for an earth-baby LSD-dropping war-protesting surfer/hitchhiker still carrying a guitar and thumbing rides as a senior citizen. But I digress. Maybe Money might be more up your alley.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/26/news/international/china_energy_efficiency/index.htm
Why China is an energy consumption hog
By Steve Hargreaves, senior writerNovember 29, 2010: 5:38 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Over the next 15 years China is expected to build the equivalent of New York City — 10 times over.
That’s a lot of concrete and steel, and it goes a long way to explaining why the country is using so much energy.
Email Print CommentRoads, bridges, rail lines, skyscrapers and factories take tons of concrete, steel, chemicals and glass.
“They are building massive amounts of infrastructure,” said Lynn Price, a scientist in the China Energy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, a U.S. Department of Energy research lab. “It takes incredible amounts of these energy-intensive commodities.”
Earlier this year, the International Energy Agency said China surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest consumer of energy. The news was somewhat surprising.
While China does have four times as many people, its economy is only a third the size. So where is all that energy going?
Statistics from the DOE show it is China’s industrial production, not its 1.3 billion people, that is using all this fuel. Sure, the Chinese are driving more cars and using more electricity but that’s a drop in the bucket, relatively speaking.
Dave Springer,
“Now the question for you to answer for yourself is what value bridges, skyscrapers, rail lines, and factories have to a billion people who just want to live in peace in small villages raising their own food and children (whatever number they choose to have) and worshipping in their traditional manner – in short living the lives they and their ancestors have been living for thousands of years.”
Do you believe that the chinese peasants (those “living in peace” in small villages) actually preferred a life of grinding poverty eaking out an existence digging in the dirt? If this is the case, then why are they migrating to the cities? Are the authorites holding a collective gun to their heads, or are they going by choice?
Dave,
You probably recognize that I’m just parroting the nonsensical criticism the greens and progressives made of GWB and using that to point out the double standard.
Dave Springer says:
November 10, 2011 at 6:58 am
OK, I give up, Dave. Your unpleasantness has finally gotten to me. Your insults have worn me down. Go bother someone else, you’re no fun, what was it they say about asinine unpleasant children like yourself, oh, yeah, “Doesn’t play well with others”.
Don’t bother to reply. I’m finished with your boorish nastiness. I invited you, quite politely as you can see above, to do something simple. Provide a citation for your claim.
Instead, first thing out of the box, you rock back with an insult.
Go away, you nasty little man, play your nasty little word games with someone else. I’m through making allowances for your impolite behavior. You know about this thing called a “tipping point”? You’ve passed it for me.
Bye, Dave, and it sure hasn’t been nice talking to you. Your claims may be right, who knows, but your attitude sucks, so who cares?
w.