Paul L. Vaughan, M.Sc. – October 2011
This post has no introduction, per the author’s request, start with the graphs. A PDF of a more complete paper is linked at the end. – Anthony
Motivation
One purpose of this article is to direct the attention of sensible observers to a serious oversight in the mainstream quest for understanding of multidecadal solar-terrestrial relations (section I).
Another is to ask the community to start thinking carefully about what can be learned from rotating multivariate lunisolar spatiotemporal phase relations shared by Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) and terrestrial climate records, while seizing the same opportunity to highlight critical omissions in “classic” works on alleged solar-barycentric terrestrial influences (section II).
These data exploration notes are volunteered in support of ongoing publicly collaborative multidisciplinary research.
Audience
The diverse audiences addressed might not be the ones preferred by some readers. Addressing rotates priority across a spectrum of functional numeracy & orientation.
Format
Volunteer time & resources are limited, so presentation is skeletal & informal.
Conclusion
The majority of recent multidecadal terrestrial variability is due to natural spatiotemporal aliasing of differential solar pulse-position by terrestrial topology over basic terrestrial cycles including the year.
It’s not the deviation of solar cycle frequency from average solar cycle frequency that’s of practical significance from a terrestrial perspective. Earth, the receiver, has no clock locked to the average solar cycle length, so the pulse-position modulation is differential.
These observations depend on neither the success nor failure of CERN’s CLOUD experiment.
Details
Vaughan, P.L. (2011). Shifting Sun-Earth-Moon Harmonies, Beats, & Biases.
Vaughn Sun-Earth-Moon Harmonies Beats Biases (1MB 25pp PDF)
Best Regards to All,
Paul L. Vaughan, M.Sc.
Read the thing; read it twice more; no help.
On this subject I plead complete and total ignorance. The Library of Congress is the World’s largest repository (suppository too) of information about stuff of which I also plead complete and utter ignorance.
So I’m here to learn along with many others.
Thank god, I thought I was an idiot…
Uh, practical jokes are ALWAYS funny…..to the originator. Or is it a job application screening device for literacy?
Rotating Multivariate Lunisolar Spatiotemporal Phase Relations needs some more words, ones starting with vowels, to make an easier-to-pronounce acronym. How would you say RMLSPR? ReMLiSPoRe? RoMuLuS PR? RaMaLhaSaPuRa? Tough one.
Total garbage.
My apologies to the author, but does this article have something to do with the run up to Halloween? My clue is in the PDF where I learn, “1. Lunar Draconic Month = 27.212221 days
(time between node-crossings in same direction)”.
I have no clue what the point of the article is. This should be a lesson that decent introductions are necessary, no matter who the intended audience may be. Mr Vaughan may be the best scientist since Jim Hansen, or the worst since Hansen. I may never know.
Mr. Vaughn, have you considered that your oscillations may be a way of proving string theory? If you are seeing variations in gravity, caused by the sums of various oscillations, which are manifested as sunspots and weather patterns, this may be a way of proving a physics theory.
It looks like a Spatial Phase shifted Sun induced Tourette syndrom.
Many of the acronyms and more info on what is being plotted can be found in
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/23/confirmation-of-solar-forcing-of-the-semi-annual-variation-of-length-of-day/
I’m attempting to figure out whether this is all just random garbage.
#1 appears to be a non-technical, general comment about the target audience:
“Audience. The diverse audiences addressed might not be the ones preferred by some readers. Addressing rotates priority across a spectrum of functional numeracy & orientation.”
Can you clarify this statement? What is being addressed? What is rotating?
While this statement is not central to the hypothesis, it has in common with most of the following prose the characteristics of 1) sounds very elegant until you I to understand it, and 2) I can’t figure out what in the world it means.
Uggg. Editing problems. Please ignore comment above
Many of the acronyms and more info on what is being plotted can be found in
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/23/confirmation-of-solar-forcing-of-the-semi-annual-variation-of-length-of-day/
I’m attempting to figure out whether there is something of value in the article or if it is all just random garbage.
Perhaps looking into one of his general, non-technical statements will help me calibrate on Mr. Vaughan’s communication method.
He writes : “Audience. The diverse audiences addressed might not be the ones preferred by some readers. Addressing rotates priority across a spectrum of functional numeracy & orientation.”
Can you clarify this statement? What is being addressed? What is rotating?
While this statement is not central to the hypothesis, it has in common with most of the following prose the characteristics of 1) sounds very elegant until I try to understand it, and 2) I can’t figure out what in the world it means.
Praise sandwich:-
I really like the colors. The Chandler Wobble ones are THE best.
Incomprehensible dissertation is incomprehensible.
The colours are really nice. Definately use them again.
Sorry to pile on, but the exposition was too terse. It would be helpful if the author defined all acronyms, and filled in the logic and data analysis between graphs. The graphs need much more clear and complete labels.
Another is to ask the community to start thinking carefully about what can be learned from rotating multivariate lunisolar spatiotemporal phase relations shared by Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) and terrestrial climate records, while seizing the same opportunity to highlight critical omissions in “classic” works on alleged solar-barycentric terrestrial influences (section II).
That’s not necessarily gibberish, and the author did make clear in part that he was addressing differences between northern and southern hemispheres throughout the year (spatiotemporal.) It certainly needs to be expanded. A whole lot of simple active declarative sentences would help. What other people call a narration: of the events purportedly represented by the graphs, and of the logic stringing the beginning, middle, end, and other parts, together. There is bound to be a journal, perhaps one of the Annual Reviews, that would like a paper uniting all those disparate papers together.
For expository purposes, none of the quantities should be represented with more significant figures than are supported by data.
Wow! This paper is brilliant! /sarc
Actually there are a lot of pretty graphs, but the text does little to help the interpretation of said graphs.
Going to need some help with this one, Paul Vaughan.
Roy Weiler
If a student handed in such a thing to me, that student would get a very long lecture. It is essential that engineering communication be absolutely clear and unambiguous. People have to actually understand what an engineer says or writes.
My latest mantra: “A doctor can kill only one person at a time. An engineer can kill thousands.”
The correct explanation for the Wobble is the reactions between Solids and Liquids.. Wait for next months answer.. As Spock would say “Fascinating!”
Whatever this is, it is a hell of a lot better than taking the chaotic data the climate hands us and extrapolate linearly. (Hey Hansen, are you listening, you rich moron?).
Hal
Paul Vaughn, I don’t understand everything that you have here but I’m pretty good at pattern and signal analysis. Would you please explain the graph on the bottom of page 2 of the PDF. In particular the abbreviations and units for the northern and southern hemisphere plots.
You plot says that there is a relationship between the rate of change in the length of the solar cycle and the other two plots.
Please explain.
I missed the tie-in to the Mayan calendar the first time through. Since they were basing their calendar are simple observation, I think it is quite right to say this was right in front of our eyes the whole time (as in most of recorded history), and we didn’t see it.
It would make sense that the gas giants are the ones with the primary harmonics (though of course the sun would have the dominant harmonic). Something composed of gas would “ring” much easier than something composed of solids, in addition to being more homogenized.
Thanks for your paper, Mr. Vaughn. It helped me to understand some basics that I have wondered about. Glad that you expanded your research from Earth to the Solar System.
Word soup is on the menu and all I brought was my meat and potatoes science fork. No thanks, going back to poking fun at the hippies.
Taras at 2:47pm
Anthony Watts at 2:49 pm
Anthony, I am not blaming you for this post. At Watts Up With That, after reading an article that is difficult to undestand, I follow very simple rule: when in doubt, read all comments. This time it did not work.
Joseph Thoma
Paul Vaugh,
In the Month normalized SOI- Integral plot, why did you plot 18 months on the vertical axis,
RE:William A Blackwell says: “Or is it a job application screening device for literacy?”
Close, see: http://www.oakdenehollins.co.uk/european-uk-policy.php
Brent Hargreaves says: October 15, 2011 at 2:04 pm
Well, that’s a relief. For a while I was getting worried about rotating multivariate lunisolar spatiotemporal phase relations.
That’s what marriage counselors are for.
It’s like the Rosetta Stone. No doubt Paul this work is the key to the hieroglyphics of climate science. I am very sure that the heavenly cycles correlate with climate on Earth, modulated by the inertia of the oceans and landmasses. I trust Courtillot. But we still need some help in understanding and I’m sure you’d find that if you did this, help would return to you vis-a-vis the lack of time/funds you state.
Are you on the autistic spectrum?
I checked all the acronyms here and they do all figure. The differentials (rates of change) are easy to miss eg LOD’ vis-a-vis LOD (Length Of Day), Paul, wouldn’t a delta sign be more familiar?
I knew it all the time, and now it has been proven
🙂