Newsbytes from Dr. Benny Peiser of the Global Warming Policy Foundation
Britain should brace itself for another freezing winter with the return of La Niña, a climate phenomenon known to disrupt global weather, ministers have warned. The warning coincides with research from the Met Office suggesting Europe could be facing a return of the “little ice age” that gripped Britain 300 years ago, causing decades of bitter winters. The prediction, to be published in Nature, is based on observations showing a slight fall in the sun’s emissions of ultraviolet radiation, which over a long period may trigger mini ice ages in Europe. –Jonathan Leake, The Sunday Times, 9 October 2011
BRITAIN is set to suffer a mini ice age that could last for decades and bring with it a series of bitterly cold winters. And it could all begin within weeks as experts said last night that the mercury may soon plunge below the record -20C endured last year. Latest evidence shows La Nina, linked to extreme winter weather in America and with a knock-on effect on Britain, is in force and will gradually strengthen as the year ends. It coincides with research from the Met Office indicating the nation could be facing a repeat of the “little ice age” that gripped the country 300 years ago, causing decades of harsh winters. –Laura Caroe, Daily Express, 10 October 2011
Some scientists predict that the Sun is heading for a long slump in solar activity known as a Grand Solar Minimum. If this happens, it is possible that Britain could return to conditions similar to those 350 years ago when sunspots vanished during “the Little Ice Age”, when ice fairs were often held on the frozen Thames in London. –Paul Simons, The Times, 10 October 2011
Investment in more winter equipment may not be economical given rarity of British snow, says RAC Foundation chairman. The row over the need for a multimillion-pound investment in snowploughs, de-icing equipment and salt stocks deepened this morning with the publication of a government-backed report using Met Office predictions that successive hard winters are rare. Quarmby said the Met Office remained convinced that the severe cold snap is a one-off phenomenon. “We cannot say this is an annual event,” he said. –Dan Milmo, The Guardian, 23 December 2010
The Met Office is working with academics to try and predict the likelihood of severe winters over the next 20-30 years. The work aims to help transport authorities understand the risks of further severe winters after the coldest December since records began in 1910. But the work was criticised this week by Benny Peiser, director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation. “I would strongly advise not to rely on any 20-30 year winter forecasts,” he said. “The point is that nobody really understands the basic feedbacks and climate dynamics that drive annual winter variability, let alone that long in advance.” –Local Transport Today, 25 February 2011
In October 2009 the Met Office predicted a mild winter because of El Nino. Temperatures in December would be above average, they said. In reality December temperatures were a whopping 1.1 degrees below the recent average. In 2010, contributing to the Quarmby Report, the Met Office advised to assume that the chance of a severe winter in 2010–11 is no greater (or less) than the current general probability of 1 in 20. Boy, were they wrong! Mean temperatures over the UK were 5.0 °C below average during December and 0.3 °C below average in January. –-David Whitehouse, The Observatory, 10 October 2011
The fact is that nobody knows if the forthcoming winter will be severe or mild. The only wise advice that can be given is to plan as if 2011 is going to be like the previous three winters, and one doesn’t need multi-million pound computers to make it. –-David Whitehouse, The Observatory, 10 October 2011
Snow is starting to disappear from our lives. Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain’s culture, as warmer winters – which scientists are attributing to global climate change – produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said. –The Independent, 20 March 2000
Green thinking represents a challenge to the status quo? That’s a laughable idea. From schools and universities to every corner of the Western political sphere, the climate-change outlook is the status quo. In fact, it’s the new conservatism. –Brendan O’Neil, The Australian, 8 October 2011
Katla, eartquake swarm 5 days ago. Sounds like it might erupt? icelandic authorities seem concerned
This whole thing reminds me of one of those games where you pass on a message with minor alterations until it becomes radically different. The article here is composed of quotes from an assortment of media sources.
Here is the abstract of the article they are starting from:
Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere
Sarah Ineson, Adam A. Scaife, Jeff R. Knight, James C. Manners, Nick J. Dunstone, Lesley J. Gray & Joanna D. Haigh
AffiliationsContributionsCorresponding author
Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1282
Received 18 April 2011 Accepted 07 September 2011 Published online 09 October 2011
An influence of solar irradiance variations on Earth’s surface climate has been repeatedly suggested, based on correlations between solar variability and meteorological variables1. Specifically, weaker westerly winds have been observed in winters with a less active sun, for example at the minimum phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle2, 3, 4. With some possible exceptions5, 6, it has proved difficult for climate models to consistently reproduce this signal7, 8. Spectral Irradiance Monitor satellite measurements indicate that variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance may be larger than previously thought9. Here we drive an ocean–atmosphere climate model with ultraviolet irradiance variations based on these observations. We find that the model responds to the solar minimum with patterns in surface pressure and temperature that resemble the negative phase of the North Atlantic or Arctic Oscillation, of similar magnitude to observations. In our model, the anomalies descend through the depth of the extratropical winter atmosphere. If the updated measurements of solar ultraviolet irradiance are correct, low solar activity, as observed during recent years, drives cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature. Given the quasiregularity of the 11-year solar cycle, our findings may help improve decadal climate predictions for highly populated extratropical regions.
Now does that look like a forecast of a new LIA?
Rule 1: Always look at the original source
Rule 2: Do not believe media reports without checking
It’s quite sickening to see comments advocating physical violence against specific people, and then lots of other comments endorsing them. Do you think it makes you look clever to host such people?
Steven Mosher says:
“The LIA was limited in geographical distribution. As was the MWP.”
Correct Mosh. To the third rock from the sun I believe.
I am quite skeptical that Europe is in for 20-30 years of cooling, or anything approaching a “Little Ice Age”. They may get a few bad winters in a row (not all due to La Nina by the way), but by the next sizable El Nino, it will be forgotten. Earth 2011 does not equal Earth 1600. It would nice and tidy if it did, but that would be too easy. Related to this, those who have been following the ocean levels have noted a bit of a drop these past few years. Have you noted where all that water went, and how much energy was transferred from ocean to atmosphere to get it there? GRACE knows. Hint: it didn’t go into building up glaciers. What does this have to do with Europe’s weather? Everything.
This is terrible news!! Everybody knows the Met office gets it exactly wrong!
clipe says:
October 10, 2011 at 3:28 pm
Palm trees of Rothesay, Scotland.
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rothesay_gardens_-_geograph.org.uk_-_799345.jpg
Sailed on The Waverley from Glasgow to Rothesay (1964ish) as a wee boy. Was stunned to see, live and in colour, real Palm trees.
—————————————————————————————————————————
Those are not palm trees, they are New Zealand cabbage trees
“Cabbage trees are one of the most widely cultivated New Zealand natives and are very popular in Europe, Britain and the U.S. In the U.K. they are known as Torquay palm.”
They are very hardy plants and easily survive snow.
http://www.doc.govt.nz/conservation/native-plants/cabbage-tree-ti-kouka/
Imagine that. I would have never thought that the northern hemisphere would be so different than the southern.
[SNIP: SteveO your act is wearing thin. When you learn the difference between hyperbole and the real threats made against climate skeptics, come back. Continue in this vein and you will be snipped. –REP]
Notwithstanding the unassociated assertions and filibustering preceding this last statement above, but, what do you cite as objective proof or evidence for this statement?
.
philincalifornia says:
October 10, 2011 at 3:56 pm
Dave Springer says:
October 10, 2011 at 11:48 am
So what I want to know from the climate boffins is exactlty how much CO2 we need to inject into the atmosphere to make things like the Little Ice Age a practical impossibility in the future.
============================
I think that R. Gates considers this to be his particular field of specialty. I’m expecting that he will be able to tell you to within 10ppm.
______
? Too many variables. I think it’s pretty apparent that the last “Little Ice Age” was likely solar-caused in origin, and remarkably, and surprisingly (to the ignornant), even the much beloved Michael Mann has stated as much. See:
http://academic.evergreen.edu/z/zita/articles/solar/MaunderMin04Shindell.pdf
More remarkable perhaps to some would be this quote from this study by Michael Mann:
“These results provide evidence that relatively
small solar forcing may play a significant
role in century-scale NH winter climate
change. This suggests that colder winter temperatures
over the NH continents during portions
of the 15th through the 17th centuries
(sometimes called the Little Ice Age) and
warmer temperatures during the 12th through
14th centuries (the putative Medieval Warm
Period) may have been influenced by longterm
solar variations.”
Wow! How could it be? You must admit, some of you are surprised that such words could have been written by Michael Mann. The level of your surprise (I would suggest) is in direct proportion to your inability to see the bigger picture. Earth 2011 does not equal Earth 1600.
“
Gates quotes Mann:
“This suggests that colder winter temperatures over the NH continents during portions of the 15th through the 17th centuries (sometimes called the Little Ice Age) and warmer temperatures during the 12th through 14th centuries (the putative Medieval Warm Period)…”
“Putative”??? [That means ‘supposed’]. Mann is still pushing his repeatedly debunked fiction that the MWP didn’t happen. But if there is anything close to settled climate science, it is the historical fact of the MWP, which is ubiquitous in numerous records, and as ice core evidence from both hemispheres.
N.B.: Off Topic.
pauline says:
October 10, 2011 at 4:37 pm
Saw it, it was interesting, but low intensity. It’s back to typical activity of late now, see
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/
I doubt anyone is expecting that to move up the eruption date.
Smokey,
You’re missing the bigger picture. Mann admitted that the sun influenced the Little Ice Age and the MWP (putative or not, he admitted it was warm period)! This should be headlines for some skeptics who fail to grasp the bigger context. I would suggest, this failure comes about from an over-reaction against any acceptance of the possibility that a 40% increase in CO2 could have any impact on Earth’s climate.
R. Gates says:
October 10, 2011 at 6:06 pm
I would suggest, this failure comes about from an over-reaction against any acceptance of the possibility that a 40% increase in CO2 could have any impact on Earth’s climate.
===================================================
Gates, if you have one drop of water – increase it 40% – you have less than 1 1/2 drops of water….
It’s relative…..
Steven Mosher said:
“The LIA was limited in geographical distribution. As was the MWP. Interesting problems that have nothing to do with global warming.”
If you can ignore hundreds of records from every continent, and dismiss them all as regional phenomena, how come you believe the opposite proposition (that the climate, contrary to the entire geological record of the Earth’s history, has stayed exactly flat for a thousand years) based on the evidence of one single tree?
Another little ice age?
We’re doomed.
R. Gates says:
October 10, 2011 at 6:06 pm
Smokey,
You’re missing the bigger picture. Mann admitted that the sun influenced the Little Ice Age and the MWP (putative or not, he admitted it was warm period)! This should be headlines for some skeptics who fail to grasp the bigger context. I would suggest, this failure comes about from an over-reaction against any acceptance of the possibility that a 40% increase in CO2 could have any impact on Earth’s climate.
R., Your fingernails are not digging into that slippery slope very well. And the skritching racket is very annoying. Your attempt at exoneration is ludicrous.
So now it’s just a possibility? Have you alerted Dr. Mann or the IPCC?
BTW: Have you accepted the possibility it’s having an immeasurable impact upon the climate?
Have you accepted the
possibilityfact that nobody has shown any evidence that the current climate has not exceeded the range of natural variation?Have you accepted the fact that nobody has shown any evidence that the climate models accurately model the actual climate?
The UK Met forecasts a colder winter…. Okay, there’s gonna be no snow in England this year and wear yer bathers…. It’s gonna be Hot hot hot….;-)
Seriously though, Benny Peiser is the only guy that is thinking clearly and applying scientific understanding in this issue, when he says….”I would strongly advise not to rely on any 20-30 year winter forecasts……..The point is that nobody really understands the basic feedbacks and climate dynamics that drive annual winter variability, let alone that long in advance.”
Skeptics do science….. all the rest do politics instead.
Gates,
You believe whatever you want to believe:
“Mann admitted that the sun influenced the Little Ice Age and the MWP (putative or not, he admitted it was warm period)!”
But the word “putative” changes the meaning entirely, to mean ‘the LIA and the supposedly warm MWP.’
And I remind you that thirteen years after MBH98, which mendaciously attempted to erase the LIA and the MWP, Mann still stonewalls requests for his complete methodology, data, metadata and code. The scientific method requires transparency, therefore Mann is acting like an anti-scientist. As are the rest of the “Team”. They are pseudo-scientific climate charlatans, in it for the money, the prestige, and for their personal aggrandizement.
I’m just pointing out what they, and you, won’t.
Wanna bet? Here’s where:
https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743901
Intrade’s latest odds say there’s only a 30% chance of this (2012 being the warmest year on record) happening. I’ve bet over $400 that it won’t happen, and I’m willing to bet more. See you there.
You can also bet on whether 2012 will be among the five warmest years on record (per GISS, like the prior bet). Intrade’s odds on that happening are 50%. Again, I have over $400 bet that this won’t happen. Here’s the link:
https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=706205
Come on!
These over the top predictions are commonly wrong.After all it is rare to have such a sustained chill during the interglacial period.
I would be interested if Britain ends up with the “average” winter.I wonder how they would be able to explain it away?
Speaking of Ice Ages, does everyone know how quickly the temperature is dropping on the West Coast of the US? Oregon’s coastal zone is cooling at the rate of 37.1 degrees F per century (Minus 20.6 deg C per century). Coastal Washington state, and northern and mid-state of California are dropping like a rock, also.
At this rate of cooling, Oregon will be in a perpetual icy state by 2050, with an average temperature of 32 deg F or zero deg C.
See http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=tmp&month=9&year=2011&filter=12&state=35&div=1
Adjust the “State” and “Climate Division” selectors as necessary.
(/sarc, well, I’m not quite sure on this one. Maybe off, but then, maybe not!! The data shows a very rapid cooling over the past 8 years. )
“R. Gates says:
October 10, 2011 at 5:34 pm
You must admit, some of you are surprised that such words could have been written by Michael Mann.”
Not really.
Phil Jones also said:
“There is much debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period was global in extent or not. The MWP is most clearly expressed in parts of North America, the North Atlantic and Europe and parts of Asia.”
If you really wish to surprise us, show us where either Michael Mann or Phil Jones agree that either the LIA or MWP were global.