Newsbytes from Dr. Benny Peiser of the Global Warming Policy Foundation
Britain should brace itself for another freezing winter with the return of La Niña, a climate phenomenon known to disrupt global weather, ministers have warned. The warning coincides with research from the Met Office suggesting Europe could be facing a return of the “little ice age” that gripped Britain 300 years ago, causing decades of bitter winters. The prediction, to be published in Nature, is based on observations showing a slight fall in the sun’s emissions of ultraviolet radiation, which over a long period may trigger mini ice ages in Europe. –Jonathan Leake, The Sunday Times, 9 October 2011
BRITAIN is set to suffer a mini ice age that could last for decades and bring with it a series of bitterly cold winters. And it could all begin within weeks as experts said last night that the mercury may soon plunge below the record -20C endured last year. Latest evidence shows La Nina, linked to extreme winter weather in America and with a knock-on effect on Britain, is in force and will gradually strengthen as the year ends. It coincides with research from the Met Office indicating the nation could be facing a repeat of the “little ice age” that gripped the country 300 years ago, causing decades of harsh winters. –Laura Caroe, Daily Express, 10 October 2011
Some scientists predict that the Sun is heading for a long slump in solar activity known as a Grand Solar Minimum. If this happens, it is possible that Britain could return to conditions similar to those 350 years ago when sunspots vanished during “the Little Ice Age”, when ice fairs were often held on the frozen Thames in London. –Paul Simons, The Times, 10 October 2011
Investment in more winter equipment may not be economical given rarity of British snow, says RAC Foundation chairman. The row over the need for a multimillion-pound investment in snowploughs, de-icing equipment and salt stocks deepened this morning with the publication of a government-backed report using Met Office predictions that successive hard winters are rare. Quarmby said the Met Office remained convinced that the severe cold snap is a one-off phenomenon. “We cannot say this is an annual event,” he said. –Dan Milmo, The Guardian, 23 December 2010
The Met Office is working with academics to try and predict the likelihood of severe winters over the next 20-30 years. The work aims to help transport authorities understand the risks of further severe winters after the coldest December since records began in 1910. But the work was criticised this week by Benny Peiser, director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation. “I would strongly advise not to rely on any 20-30 year winter forecasts,” he said. “The point is that nobody really understands the basic feedbacks and climate dynamics that drive annual winter variability, let alone that long in advance.” –Local Transport Today, 25 February 2011
In October 2009 the Met Office predicted a mild winter because of El Nino. Temperatures in December would be above average, they said. In reality December temperatures were a whopping 1.1 degrees below the recent average. In 2010, contributing to the Quarmby Report, the Met Office advised to assume that the chance of a severe winter in 2010–11 is no greater (or less) than the current general probability of 1 in 20. Boy, were they wrong! Mean temperatures over the UK were 5.0 °C below average during December and 0.3 °C below average in January. –-David Whitehouse, The Observatory, 10 October 2011
The fact is that nobody knows if the forthcoming winter will be severe or mild. The only wise advice that can be given is to plan as if 2011 is going to be like the previous three winters, and one doesn’t need multi-million pound computers to make it. –-David Whitehouse, The Observatory, 10 October 2011
Snow is starting to disappear from our lives. Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain’s culture, as warmer winters – which scientists are attributing to global climate change – produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said. –The Independent, 20 March 2000
Green thinking represents a challenge to the status quo? That’s a laughable idea. From schools and universities to every corner of the Western political sphere, the climate-change outlook is the status quo. In fact, it’s the new conservatism. –Brendan O’Neil, The Australian, 8 October 2011
steven mosher says: October 10, 2011 at 9:44 pm
_jim. “what do you cite as objective proof or evidence for this statement?”
The evidence for the MWP ( scant, questionable proxy evidence and non testable documentary evidence) is confined geographically.
To echo what many others (Lucy Skywalker, MattG etc) have pointed out, the CO2 science website has a database of (to date) 1015 published scientific papers – i.e. ones that got past your pals’ review – attesting to the MWP everywhere on earth.
http://www.co2science.org/
To quote from this website frontpage link to the MWP published paper database:
Medieval Warm Period Project”
Was there a Medieval Warm Period? YES, according to data published by 1015 individual scientists from 584 research institutions in 44 different countries … and counting! This issue’s Medieval Warm Period Record comes from Rumailiah River Floodplain, North-western Coast of Syria. To access the entire Medieval Warm Period Project’s database, click here.
Jonathan Leake says:
October 11, 2011 at 12:02 am
From Jonathan Leake
Thanks to those who have commented on this article. However, there appears to be a common misunderstanding. My Sunday Times article was not about anthropogenic climate change. The phenomena mentioned in this article are natural and separate from climate change. They operate in parallel to climate change, in parallel to each other but, of course, each on very different time scales.
La Nina, for example, is really about weather. It’s part of a relatively short term natural cycle operating over periods of a few years.
Concerning La Nina being “just weather” that’s not the story we get from many warmista contributors here. Not so long ago (while the earth still was warming) it was proposed that continued warming could result in a continuous el Nino state. (ENSO is a nonlinear oscillator so this is an inherent impossiblity.) More recently Bob Tisdale posted with detailed evidence that the warming since the 1970s is almost all attributable to an increased prevalence of el Nino events. The warmistas replied in unison that “el Nino is the mechanism of CO2 warming”.
Bob Tisdale also points out ( http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/) that alternate warming and cooling phases of the PDO correspond to periods of alternate dominance of el Nino and La Nina.
So ENSO cannot be claimed as “just weather” – it is one of the earth’s most dominant climate drivers.
Correction – it was Eyjafjallajøkull that had a protracted conniption in 1918, Katla erupted from 12 – 05NOV1918, during which it ejected 0.7km3 of ash.
John A says:
October 10, 2011 at 1:02 pm
“It has very little to do with the Gulf Stream.”
What on earth are you talking about???? I have lived in northern Norway many years. Along the coast it is quite mild in the winther. (For a Norwegian). Go straight east some miles and the temperature plummets to Siberian levels. Where do you get your facts from? Al Gore?
Dodgy Geezer says:
British Ministers … would give Australian politicians a run for their money…
Streetcred says:
They wouldn’t even come close to our Prime Minister ‘Juliar’ and her pack of thieving lying sycophants.
Aha, you Southern Hemisphere teams.. think you’re the bees knees…
Our politicians have just cost every family in the land £2000+ per year in inflation. See http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8819254/Families-lose-2000-to-inflation-and-low-pay.html
Our lot will bring our country to it’s knees before your crowd can even put a carbon tax on. Professionals? Your lot haven’t even started printing loads of extra money yet….
Re: coming Little Ice Age. Some things that mainstream media forgets to mention…
Wolf Creek ski resort in Southwest Colorado, where we live, announced the “earliest ever recorded” opening of the skiing season, due to 8 inches of snow that fell on October 8th.
Meanwhile, traveling on “working vacation”, we experienced yesterday freezing temperatures in Cetinje, historic former capital of Montenegro, where normal average temperature in October should be above +20 degrees Celsius.
Last two or three years were marked by the record fish and lobster harvest all over the world. Fish and lobster eat creatures that eat phytoplankton and sea weeds, while phytoplankton and see weeds eat… carbon dioxide and sunlight.
Never forget: Al Gore inherited millions from his father, who made his fortune in tobacco industry, As Russians say, “Whose cow is to moo here?”
Indeed! But be consoled that you will still be performing a useful function. That of a “horrible example”: what happens when a country buys into and forms economic policy based on the cAGW thesis.
Thanks for your sacrifice!
“According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said. –The Independent, 20 March 2000”.
Hopefully Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, will now be Dr David Viner, retired, former research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia.
Reality can now, get a look in, and please will any alleged climate scientists stop confusing weather with climate.
Actually if you look at the big picture, Earth is a natural ice planet, obviously the Northern Hemisphere is more effected by glacial periods, that only occur after years of cold winters and short summers. Warming has occurred before a mini ice age, like the Medieval Warm Period.
And the Gulf Stream stops or is diverted. Problem is human civilization has mainly been treated to an interglacial. So all the BS about sea rising etc., is far from the reality. In a full glacial period
sea levels drop dramatically, as more water is taken up by ice sheets, and less evaporation of course. But – despite the larger population now, yes, a mini ice age will be detrimental to growing some foods. Not impossible, but highly likely. All these alarmist are saying is ‘We told you so?’
But the reasons are bent as the crooked scientists that say warming is caused by human activity.
They have just passed the carbon tax in the House of Reps, it will pass the Senate, but the vote in the lower house was 74 – 72. One Liberal MP had been banned for 24 hours, and if she had been there the vote would have been 74-73. Watch out for more fireworks, as it seems the Kyoto
11 conference won’t happen.
Alexander Feht says:
October 11, 2011 at 2:25 pm
we experienced yesterday freezing temperatures in Cetinje , historic former capital of Montenegro….
I hope you went up the
Lovcen mountain from where on a clear day you can see most of Montenegro, Italy, Croatia and Albania. If you are still around don’t miss the old town of Kotor . Btw. it was snowing to the east of the capital Podgorica only a day earlier.
Not a prayer. His half-baked hyperbole was in support of The Narrative™ of the Noble (Common) Cause. That’s a free pass and Permanent Falsification Exemption. Unless the mockery gets too loud, and he becomes an embarrassment. But the CAGW Team is almost impervious to embarrassment, of course. It also has no shame, or willingness to be held accountable, or …
More snow in Mediterranean country of Montenegro:
http://www.vijesti.me/zoom-zoom/
Apple tree
“The fact is that nobody knows if the forthcoming winter will be severe or mild.”
From forecasting short term solar variables, the cold blasts can be timed with great accuracy. AO and NAO status strongly affect their severity. For last winter, I saw below normals from the last week in Nov till Xmas, with normals through Jan/Feb, but with a cool spot later in Feb (UK).
I`m looking at one month in particular being well below normals this coming winter.
Sun Spot says:
October 10, 2011 at 3:09 pm
@Dave Springer says: October 10, 2011 at 11:48 am
“I agree with your statement. An addition of CO2 to our atmosphere is not ony benificial, it might save us from the catastrophy of an ice age. It’s pathetic that science spend billions on researching CO2′s effect on weather/climate and we still don’t have a clue as to what causes an icae age. Its an ice age that will kill billions not CO2.”
CO2 in any amount isn’t going to stop an ice age from coming. No one has been able to adequately explain why there is a rapid collapse into an ice age (in as little as a matter of decades) when CO2 levels are at their peak for that interglacial and don’t decline substantially until about 3000 years after the start of that ice age (and, no, Milankovitch cycles cannot explain that sudden descent). If CO2 theory was correct, then there is no way that an ice age could start that rapidly (almost instantly in geologic, and even climatic, terms) with all that warming potential from CO2.
bushbunny says
October 11, 2011, 9:29 pm
Actually if you look at the big picture, earth is a natural ice planet…
The present configuration of continents brought about by tectonic movement favours cold and ice. The poles are opposites – the north pole is a sea surrounded by land, the south pole an island continent surrounded by ocean. In the case of the south pole, as has been explained by Bill Illis, the Antarctic is isolated by the circumpolar current from any warming effect from currents from the north. (Before Antarctica broke from Africa a southward current warmed Antarctica which was then fully forested.)
At the north pole the polar lake configuration gives rise to instability and potential positive feedbacks and consequent oscillation in the extent of both sea ice and glaciation and snow cover (i.e. it is an excitable medium) thus the endless fun in guessing sea ice from year to year. A large enough oscillation swing is able to set off a transition to a colder glacial period – hopping from one attrator to another.
Since the continents move tectonically at about the speed that your fingernails grow, it will be a while before this situation changes. Talk of global warming is thus indeed a tad premature.
Hi, phlogiston on 13 Oct @ur momisugly 2 am. However, recall the North Pole is not a continent like the Antarctic. The Arctic Circle effects lots of countries and islands, especially with the shorter and longer days of sunlight? But Australia, not New Zealand, has been occupied by humans for about 50 – 60,000 years and we are just out of the ring of fire. The only glacial regions known are in Tasmania that was joined to the mainland until the last full glacial period ended around 10,000 years ago, and on top of the Australian Alps that are a high altitude. But Australia was also joined to Papua New Guinea too.
However, the Panama canal wasn’t built then, maybe that will keep invigorating the flow of the Gulf Stream that was affected during the last ice age and helped to freeze those land masses by stopping or diverting its warmer waters?
@bushbunny;
The Canal isn’t a Channel. Very little water moves through the locks, etc. Certainly not enough to “invigorate the Gulf Stream”.
Hi Brian, well it was a thought. The latest is that the Gulf Stream has stopped or diverted because of the oil spill in the Gulf? I am not that informed but if the oil kept to the surface waters, it would drive the warmer gulf stream flow down further? Maybe some one can comment on that?
No, that’s not the latest. Oldie-von-moldie nonsense, long debunked. The GS is just fine. And the oil pretty much vanished, much faster than was thought possible. Seems the non-stop natural seeps in the Gulf have bred some hungry and efficient bacteria, who accepted the BP contribution as “business as usual”.