Aircraft measurements show surprisingly high levels of black carbon particles in the global atmosphere – Asia blamed

From NCAR/UCAR:

First global portrait of greenhouse gases emerges from pole-to-pole flights

HIPPO logoBOULDER—A three-year series of research flights from the Arctic to the Antarctic has successfully produced an unprecedented portrait of greenhouse gases and particles in the atmosphere, scientists announced today.  The far-reaching field project, known as HIPPO, is enabling researchers to generate the first detailed mapping of the global distribution of gases and particles that affect Earth’s climate.

The series of flights, which come to an end next week, mark an important milestone as scientists work toward targeting both the sources of greenhouse gases and the natural processes that draw the gases back out of the atmosphere.

“Tracking carbon dioxide and other gases with only surface measurements has been like snorkeling with a really foggy mask,” says Britton Stephens, a scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and one of the project’s principal investigators. “Finally, HIPPO is giving us a clear view of what’s really out there.”

“With HIPPO, we now have views of whole slices of the atmosphere,” says Steven Wofsy, HIPPO principal investigator and atmospheric and environmental professor at Harvard University’s School of Engineering and Applied Sciences. “We’ve been quite surprised by the abundance of certain atmospheric components and the locations where they are most common.”

The three-year campaign has relied on the powerful capabilities of a specially equipped Gulfstream V aircraft, owned by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and operated by NCAR. The research jet, known as the High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER), has a range of about 7,000 miles (11,000 kilometers). It is outfitted with a suite of specially designed instruments to sample a broad range of atmospheric constituents.

The flights have helped scientists compile extraordinary detail about the atmosphere. The research team has studied air samples at different latitudes during various seasons from altitudes of 500 feet (150 meters) above Earth’s surface up to as high as 45,000 feet (13,750 meters), into the lower stratosphere.

HIPPO, which stands for HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations, brings together scientists from organizations across the nation, including NCAR, Harvard University, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the University of Miami, and Princeton University. NSF, which is NCAR’s sponsor, and NOAA are funding the project.

Surprises on the way to a global picture

The first of the five HIPPO missions began in January 2009. Two subsequent missions were launched in 2010, and two in 2011. The final mission comes to an end on September 9, as the aircraft returns from the Arctic to Anchorage and then to its home base at NCAR’s Research Aviation Facility near Boulder.

Each of the missions took the research team from Colorado to Alaska and the Arctic Circle, then south over the Pacific to New Zealand and near Antarctica. The flights took place at different times of year, resulting in a range of seasonal snapshots of concentrations of greenhouse gases. The research was designed to help answer such questions as why atmospheric levels of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, have tripled since the Industrial Age and are on the rise again after leveling off in the 1990s. Scientists also studied how logging and regrowth in northern boreal forests and tropical rain forests are affecting levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Such research will provide a baseline against which to evaluate the success of efforts to curb CO2 emissions and to enhance natural CO2 uptake and storage.

GV in Anchorage, Alaska
The GV in Anchorage, Alaska during HIPPO. (©UCAR, Photo by Carlye Calvin. This image is freely available for media use.

 

The team measured a total of over 80 gases and particles in the atmosphere.

One of HIPPO’s most significant accomplishments has been quantifying the seasonal amounts of CO2 taken up and released by land plants and the oceans. Those measurements will help scientists produce more accurate estimates of the annual cycle of carbon dioxide in and out of the atmosphere and how the increasing amount of this gas is influenced by both the natural world and society.

The team also found that black carbon particles—emitted by diesel engines, industrial processes, and fires—are more widely distributed in the atmosphere than previously thought. Such particles can affect climate in various ways, such as directly absorbing solar radiation, influencing the formation of clouds or enhancing melt rates when they are deposited on ice or snow.

“What we didn’t anticipate were the very high levels of black carbon we observed in plumes of air sweeping over the central Pacific toward the U.S. West Coast,” says NOAA scientist Ryan Spackman, a member of the HIPPO research team. “Levels were comparable with those measured in megacities such as Houston or Los Angeles. This suggests that western Pacific sources of black carbon are significant and that atmospheric transport of the material is efficient.”

Researchers were also surprised to find larger-than-expected concentrations of nitrous oxide high in the tropical atmosphere. The finding has significant environmental implications because the gas both traps heat and contributes to the thinning of the ozone layer. Nitrous oxide levels have been increasing for decades in part because of the intensive use of nitrogen fertilizer for agriculture. The abundance of the gas high in the tropical atmosphere may be a sign that storms are carrying it aloft from sources in Southeast Asia.

Balancing the carbon budget

The task of understanding how carbon cycles through the Earth system, known as “balancing the carbon budget,” is gaining urgency as policy makers discuss strategies to limit greenhouse gases. Some countries or regions could be rewarded with carbon credits for taking steps such as preserving forests believed to absorb carbon dioxide.

“Carbon markets and emission offset projects are moving ahead, but we still have imperfect knowledge of where human-emitted carbon dioxide is ending up,” NCAR’s Stephens says.

Before HIPPO, scientists primarily used ground stations to determine the distribution of sources of atmospheric CO2 and “sinks” that reabsorb some of the gas back into the land and oceans. But ground stations can be separated by thousands of miles, which hinders the ability to measure CO2 in specific locations. To estimate how the gas is distributed vertically, scientists have had to rely on computer models, which will now be improved with HIPPO data.

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charles nelson
September 8, 2011 3:50 am

I am amused that someone who has undertaken a unique, first time study should be ‘surprised’ by the results…sounds like prejudice to me.

Chris Edwards
September 8, 2011 4:10 am

Well done MR Rore! this is mainly, I think, due to carbon credits, the loss of manufacturing in the west due to the overload of green taxes and the movement to unregulated factories in asia with the resultant carbon greants, what a crock!

September 8, 2011 5:25 am

Anthony,
“REPLY: Soot is far easier to limit and manage than CO2, but since the USA’s EPA standards have pretty much eliminated soot, it can’t be taxed or fined much, so they go after CO2 – Anthony”
You cynic! I’ll bet you thought the sales of emissions allowances in Waxman-Markey were just another tax too, just because the $65 billion per year expected revenue was discussed widely, while the expected annual carbon emissions were not. For shame. (sarc off)

September 8, 2011 5:26 am

So if there is more nitrous oxide and black carbon than we thought but its warming less than we thought, if at all, what does that imply for the sensitivity of temperatures to CO2?
One guess.

chris y
September 8, 2011 5:53 am

I missed the part where they discuss measurements of the spatial variation of CFC and/or CO2 concentrations. This would be the first attempt to measure this piece of ‘settled science’ that is common in climate and stratospheric ozone models.

Dixon
September 8, 2011 6:27 am

Data – yay!
But surely we don’t need research into the carbon cycle anymore? I’m sure I heard the science was settled…
I wonder (seriously) how much of the black carbon comes from smokey old jet engines, or has the price of jet fuel got so high it’s worth replacing all the old ones?

Billy Liar
September 8, 2011 6:38 am

Harry Dale Huffman says:
September 8, 2011 at 3:32 am
I admire your integrity. A rare commodity these days.

Rich
September 8, 2011 6:52 am

They say, “Some countries or regions could be rewarded with carbon credits for taking steps such as preserving forests believed to absorb carbon dioxide.” So they’re not sure that forests absorb carbon dioxide. Perhaps they need to study the carbon cycle after all.

Bruce Cobb
September 8, 2011 6:54 am

The rebranding of soot, which is a true pollutant as “black carbon” is just one further in their overall scheme to stigmatize and demonize carbon, the building block for all life. Any warming effects of soot are vastly outweighed by the negative health effects. Thus, “black carbon” operates as a nice, convenient red herring for them.
HIPPO’s agenda clearly is pseudoscience, and simply more of the same CAGW garbage to help determine “who’s to blame”, and thus who pays and who is rewarded in the whole carbon trading ponzi scheme.

Jimbo
September 8, 2011 6:55 am

The very same soot has been fingered for Arctic ice extent and Himalayan glacier recession. It seems to me Warmists have been fingering the wrong culprit (c02).

Arctic – 2005 research
“It is not the sort of place one would expect pollution to be a problem, but new NASA research reveals that soot is traveling farther north than previously believed…….Koch and Hansen’s research reveals that soot might have a longer range than previously believed, with higher concentrations reaching far into the Arctic. As dark soot falls on the snow and ice of the Arctic, it turns the white, reflective surface into a dark surface that absorbs the Sun’s energy. This extra energy makes the snow melt more quickly.”
Dr James Hansen and Dorothy Koch
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=5363

Himalayan glaciers – 2009 research
“…the new research, by NASA’s William Lau and collaborators, reinforces with detailed numerical analysis what earlier studies suggest: that soot and dust contribute as much (or more) to atmospheric warming in the Himalayas as greenhouse gases.”
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/himalayan-warming.html
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/terrain-heat-pump.html

Seeing is believing……
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=impure-as-the-driven-snow
More from the Soot Files
http://www.science20.com/the_soot_files/soot_black_icebergs_and_arctic_ice

Nuke Nemesis
September 8, 2011 7:10 am

Soot isn’t a greenhouse gas, but it still seems to be from human emissions, so it’s possible “black carbon” will be the next demon.
However, we don’t know if the soot provides a net cooling or a net warming effect. Once this is decided, they can scapegoat it, such as blaming it for masking the greenhouse warming. Or they can blame it for melting the Arctic, or killing off the pika or endangering polar bears.

Rob Potter
September 8, 2011 7:47 am

So where are the results? In particular, the balance between release and fixation over not just forests, but agricultural land?
Agricultural plants are now so efficient at fixing CO2 that not only is a limiting factor in crop productivity, but by early afternoon there is effectively no CO2 in any corn, wheat or soybean field for about 2-3 months each year. How high in the atmosphere this can be measured would be nice to know, but since they mention looking at the effects of logging and re-forestation in temporal regions (and forest growth having much lower CO2 fixation rates compared to crop plants) I am expecting something from the data.
I guess we should be pleased that someone is actually collecting these data, but I want to see it – and not just some kind of colour-coded pretty global images (like we get from the temperature people), but the raw numbers that can be analyzed independently.

David Falkner
September 8, 2011 7:54 am

Glad to see real data (CERES, anyone?) is being used to enhance the modeling process. Ahem.

Rob Potter
September 8, 2011 7:59 am

As regards soot, a quick thumbs up to all those who mentioned the impact of clean diesel engines on air quality – together with a proviso.
In Dhaka (Bangladesh) the soot from old buses is rally quite impressive, but when the government tried to legislate old buses off the road, the city simply stopped working as there were no other options for public transport (and no-one had funds to buy new buses) and the rules are now simply ignored. Some of the millions (billions?) being spent on subsidies (for windmills say, or solar panels) diverted into replacement buses for the mega-cities in the developing world would actually have an impact on air quality.
I was going to add a snarky comment about this being too low-tech – using current (proven) technology to address a solvable problem, but it is just too damn depressing to see so much money wasted on demonizing an essential trace gas.

David Falkner
September 8, 2011 8:00 am

Also, a note on the impending doom of Western civilization:
HIPPO stands for the HIAPER Pole to Pole Observations. HIAPER is an acronym for the name of the airplane. HIAPER is an acronym for High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research. Presumably because naming the project the ‘High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research Pole to Pole Observations’ is a mouthful, they decided to put an acronym with an an acronym.

September 8, 2011 8:00 am

It looks to me that they are finally trying to determine the natural background of CO2 and to identify the major source and sink rates. Also, I’m not surprised that they are finding sub-micron carbon aerosols in the upper atmosphere. Around 0.5 microns is the size that has a minimum “deposition velocity”. Also, it is the size that can get deep into our lungs and initiate lung cancer. It dosen’t make a difference if it come from a cigarette or a truck. The EPA PM10 standard is supposed to address that issue. Scrubbers have removed a lot in the US (accumulated in sludge lagoons).
Based on my analysis of the ground observed CO2 data, I expect they will find the following:
1. The seasonal variations are due to natural changes in source and sink rates and are not related to anthropogenic sources.
2. Only the fraction of CO2 from organic sources is affected by seasonal changes.
3. The highest seasonal peak concentrations will be found in the mid latitudes probably in November or December. (I believe cloud dynamics is fractionating 12CO2 and 13CO2 and pumping the lighter into the upper atmosphere).
4. The Arctic is the greatest biological sink and dwarfs trees in the mid-latitudes.
A technique for estimating the fraction that comes from organic sources is to divide the 13/12 index by -27.3 (the NBS standard for graphite). The index already assumes the inorganic fraction is the PDB. In the atmosphere, both have ranges and are not set values.

Interstellar Bill
September 8, 2011 8:08 am

Rob Potter
You are the first I’ve heard mentioning low CO2 concentrations over agricultural fields.
Is this your own measurements, or a scientific study somewhere?
I would expect that such an effect would only be for zero windspeed.
If it’s so drastic as to be ‘zero’, it should be easy to prove with a CO2 meter.
If it’s true then farmers need to put a CO2 source in their fields.

September 8, 2011 8:39 am

Harry Dale Huffman says:
September 8, 2011 at 3:32 am
Harry,
One reason I took early retirement from EPA in 1991 was because politics was becoming increasingly the driving force for doing research and reporting results. For example, The executive summaries of criteria documents had to be carefully written to meet OMB policy requirements. Ironically, shortly after I retired, I was hired by EPA as a consultant to revise a chapter in the particulate matter criteria document.

September 8, 2011 9:02 am

As always, lots of interesting information coming from WUWT. You guys are the frontrunners in the scientific information department. I have to say though that my distrust of mainstream scientists is such that I doubt what they say and I believe they should have all funding rescinded.

RACookPE1978
Editor
September 8, 2011 9:25 am

On a world-wide level, the plotted CO2 levels increase dramatically over ALL the deserts (where there are no plants to absorb and use the CO2 in photosynthesis reactions. This happens over both hot dry gravel-and-rock deserts (Kalahari, central Australia, Saudi, Sahara, US Great Basin deserts) and over the high cold dry deserts (Greenland, Gobi, Mongolian, etc.)
It is not clear from these same graphics that CO2 levels are actually measured to increase over populated regions with large industry: matching the known maximum limit of man-made CO2 being only 4% of natural-source CO2. The fact that populated regions with industry (northeast US, eastern China coastal regions, and central Europe are ALSO tremendous CO2-absorbing regions with much farmland and forests and are also near shallow ocean regions of great algae/plankton growing regions
Just as clearly, CO2 levels are always measured to decrease substantially over all plains and farmland and forests regions all over the world.

GeologyJim
September 8, 2011 9:58 am

Interesting that they issue the press release even before the 3-year data-collection is complete.
Perhaps the analysis and interpretations are already in a manuscript ready for journal submission (just sprinkle with a little data for “credibility”, pop in the oven for 5 minutes, and serve!)
This is how the research money-wheeeeeeeeel works

Rob Potter
September 8, 2011 10:50 am

Interstellar Bill,
There is a well-described slump in photosynthesis rates in most crops even when well watered (previously, the slump was regarded as water stress, but has been confirmed under zero stress). At the same time, it is greatly affected by wind, as you say, with part of the reason for the timing being a mid-afternoon slump due to this often being the calmest part of the day.
However, if the HIPPO observations are supposed to be able to evaluate logging and re-growth of forests, I would expect it to see the seasonal effect of crops grown in the mid-West during the summer as well as other areas of high annual crop planting.
As for CO2 sources in fields, greenhouses (real ones) are sometimes supplied with increased CO2 and I have seen one grant application for project where CO2 was intended to be delivered to crops in the field. Costs were high, however, since getting hold of CO2 turned out to be not as cheap as first imagined. It takes a surprisingly large amount of energy to remove CO2 from power station emissions…..

Dave
September 8, 2011 12:01 pm

Test Co2 against Carbon
Soot is a carbon solid – Co2 is a Gas

Ray
September 8, 2011 12:06 pm

Could cosmic dust along with cosmic rays also increased since the sun when down in activity?

Gary Hladik
September 8, 2011 12:45 pm

Rich says (September 8, 2011 at 6:52 am): “So they’re not sure that forests absorb carbon dioxide. Perhaps they need to study the carbon cycle after all.”
A growing forest (e.g. after logging or a fire) is a net carbon sink. An old, mature forest is in CO2 equilibrium, with CO2 absorbed into growing trees offset by the decay of dead trees and forest litter. In the long run, then, any forest left to itself will become “carbon neutral”.
Humans can shift the equilibrium a bit by increasing or decreasing forest extent and “sequestering” forest carbon temporarily as lumber and paper products.

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