Earlier today I checked in to the WUWT dashboard and was surprised to see that WUWT had the #1 story on all of WordPress.com this morning:
Tonight, checking in again, I discover not only is WUWT still near the top with a follow up story, but the Spencer and Braswell story is dominating the top 10, labels mine:
The last time I’ve seen anything like this, where climate blogs dominated the top ten, was just after Climategate broke. And it’s a significant feat, as these numbers from the wordpress.com home page illustrate:
The best of 367,768 bloggers, 338,405 new posts, 290,328 comments, & 78,762,938 words posted today on WordPress.com.
I’ll bet the editor Wolfgang Wagner of Remote Sensing had no idea this sort of viral reaction would happen. On the downside, it’s a bad move for them and for the integrity of the peer review process, because IMHO, this was handled almost as badly as CRU/UEA handled Climategate itself. As Dr. Roger Pielke Senior says:
The place to refute a published paper is in peer-reviewed papers, not in blogs (or the media). If the paper is not robust, it appropriately should be responded to by paper, not by the resignation of the Editor. In my view, he made a poor decision which has further damaged the scientific process of vetting new research results.
On the upside, this debacle has placed thousands more fresh eyes on the Spencer and Braswell paper, as well as on the folly of the “failed peer review” process claim by the resigned editor of Remote Sensing.
And yet, we have no peer reviewed rebuttal or comment, just a lot of hand waving and noisemaking and claims the paper is “flawed” without any peer reviewed rebuttal to back up those claims. Pielke says:
Moreover, if there is a fundamental flaw in their work, then publishing a Comment in Remote Sensing would have resolved the issue. That is how science is supposed to work. As it is, Wagner has further politicized climate science.
I have a feeling that this won’t end the way Wagner thought it would.
Pielke Sr. has a new post up on an exchange between him and Peter Glieck of the Pacific Institute. It is well worth a read to get some perspective on how the other side thinks.
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tallbloke says: September 4, 2011 at 1:43 pm
That’s true, he’s a climate modeler.
Prof Wagner is not a climate modeller either.
Ric Werme says:
September 4, 2011 at 5:33 am
Anthony notes:
The numbers I saw were on the “site statistics” page (note to readers – this requires posting privileges to see), in particular the top posts for today and yesterday, I reported just the yesterday (Saturday) figures. I also looked at the “Referrers” section to see how people were coming here. There may well be things I can’t see – ah, I can click on the individual bars in the daily summary graph and get to the details for that day – “Breaking” has 13,583 + 7,899 + 3,740 = 25,222 views now.
I hadn’t realized it had reached Slashdot, that’s pretty much instantly viral. So, shouldn’t more of these sources be linking here? 🙂
Hmm, I wonder if I can conveniently scrape the stats pages and track how many views each page have. Not this weekend….
gnomish:
Nah, he was simply embarrassed that the Journal he was chief editor for published Dr Roy’s paper which trashes the climate models of all his colleagues. He works at Vienna, as an environmental modeler you see.
gnomish, “It really smells like he was ordered to resign under penalty…”
That would make his behavior cowardly. Wolfgang Wagner is a physical climate modeler and Prof. of Remote Sensing at the Vienna University of Technology, with a full title of a complexity only Germans can assign (or revere): “Univ.Prof. Dipl.Ing. Dr.techn..” Given his position, there is little anyone could do against him, apart from making grant money harder to get. This is a problem already faced by honest academic climate scientists, such as Demetris Koutsoyiannis, who has commented at Roger Pielke’s blog on his reception by the larger climate science community, here.
So, it’s not as though Wolfgang Wagner didn’t have a role model for how to behave honestly and how to meet the consequent challenge of prejudicial opprobrium by his erstwhile friendly colleagues.
It doesn’t seem likely, therefore, that Univ.Prof. Dipl.Ing. Dr.techn. Wolfgang Wagner could readily have been forced into resigning his position because the consequences of principled scientific integrity would not have been mortal to his career. He must know this.
We’re left with the supposition that he resigned out of some sort of conviction of rectitude. In paragraph 2 of his editorial, after all, Prof. Dr. Wagner wrote that he, “[agrees] with the critics of the [Spencer – Braswell] paper. He immediately after goes on to give his reason for resignation: “With this [resignation] I would also like to personally protest against how the authors and like-minded climate sceptics have much exaggerated the paper’s conclusions in public statements…” This is a principled rationale. He resigned to emphatically dissociate himself from the Spencer – Braswell paper in view of the claims that were made in its name. It’s not that the claims were factually or scientifically wrong. it’s that Prof. Dr. Wagner disagreed with them on principle.
He goes on to defend his modeling arena with the following scientifically incorrect statement, “But trying to refute all scientific insights into the global warming phenomenon just based on the comparison of one particular observational satellite data set with model predictions is strictly impossible.”
But, of course, refuting climate model validity with one particular observation strictly is possible. It can be no other way in science. There have been many instances of a ‘beautiful theory refuted by one ugly fact.‘ The theoretical beauty of a static eternal universe was refuted by the (theoretically) ugly fact of universal redshifts, for example. This principle of science falls under Einstein’s observation that one scientist is enough to refute Relativity Theory, discussed here in a larger context.
The way I see it, having focused on being a physical modeler, Univ.Prof. Dipl.Ing. Dr.techn. Wolfgang Wagner never gained the deeper perspective needed by a fully fledged scientist, namely that science is the ruthless interplay between repeatable empirical observations and falsifiable predictions from theory. He says that, “The use of satellite data to check [models] … should not be done in isolation by the remote sensing scientists.,” but rather that, Interdisciplinary cooperation with modelers is required…” But this, to use a term Prof. Dr. Wagner will recognize, is quitsch quatsch mit sosze (nonsense with gravy). Science is not a waltz of theory with result, a Viennese view notwithstanding.
Remote sensing scientists have every right to publish their critical work without consulting modelers. They also have every right to point it out when their empirical results contradict the evident predictions of the models. Empirical scientists have no obligation to consult modelers before publishing critical results. Nor do they have any obligation to work with modelers to attain a joint consensus on the points of deviation. It’s up to modelers themselves to notice the problem and correct the failures of their models. Doing so is an expression of their scientific integrity.
It’s only in the now normative corruption of modern climate science where Prof. Dr. Wagner’s distorted view of science can garner any sort of acceptance.
So, I see Univ.Prof. Dipl.Ing. Dr.techn. Wolfgang Wagner’s resignation as a honest expression of his hurt feelings, of his personal dismay, and of his entirely lop-sided and crippled understanding of what science is and how science works. It’s also an expression of his attempt to rescue climate modeling now in the present, and to protect it into the future, from the blows of a properly ruthless empiricism. Although his letter is principled from his point of view, its subtext is all about fear of experiment; of the shock of refutation.
I also have to observe that the orotund style of the resignation letter, full of portentously couched ambiguities, is an embodiment of educated Euro-double-speak.
Nick Stokes says:
September 4, 2011 at 3:15 pm
tallbloke says: September 4, 2011 at 1:43 pm
That’s true, he’s a climate modeler.
Prof Wagner is not a climate modeller either.
http://www.ipf.tuwien.ac.at/index.php/staff/187-biography-of-wolfgang-wagner.html
Yes he is.
From the link you provided:
From 2006 to 2010 he was also member of the Senate of the Vienna University of Technology…
The main research interest of Wolfgang Wagner lies in physical modeling and geophysical parameter retrieval from remote sensing data….
His main interest lies in physical modeling and calibration of full-waveform laser scanner data, applied to the problems of improving the terrain models, quantitative vegetation retrieval and object modeling…
Using C-band scatterometer data his research group has produced the first global remotely sensed soil moisture data set in 2002….
In 2009 he became co-chair of the Land Product Validation Subgroup on soil moisture within the CEOS Working Group on Calibration and Validation. http://www.ceos.org/
I agree with Pat Frank’s assessment above.
jeez says: September 4, 2011 at 6:06 pm
Jeez,
I didn’t make a statement. I asked a question. Who handled what badly? Do you have an answer.
And because everything here is laid at the door of climate science, I pointed out that that would be hard to do here.
And TB, it’s nonsense to say that Wagner is a climate modeller. The sort of terrain modelling that he does could equally be done for satellites orbiting the Moon (if there were soil moisture there).
Nick Stokes:
I am often amused by the complete lack of logic combined with flights of fantasy in your posts.
I now write to thank you for the laugh you have given me in your post at September 5, 2011 at 1:57 am where you say;
“And TB, it’s nonsense to say that Wagner is a climate modeller. The sort of terrain modelling that he does could equally be done for satellites orbiting the Moon (if there were soil moisture there).”
That is really, really funny! Thankyou.
Richard
Nick Stokes says:
September 5, 2011 at 1:57 am
And TB, it’s nonsense to say that Wagner is a climate modeller. The sort of terrain modelling that he does could equally be done for satellites orbiting the Moon (if there were soil moisture there).
Further to Richard Courtney’s mirth, which I share, I’ll add what as I see it is the underlying point.
Wagner works for organisations whose funding would suffer if it was admitted that AGW is not identifiable due to the reasons Spencer and Braswell (correctly in my view) outline in their Paper. Having been involved in the production of a global dataset for soil moisture, he is a de facto part of the GCM ‘team’. He has stated that he believes remote sensing experts must run their results by modelers before publishing any conclusions about the logical deductions which can be made from the data. His allegiance is to them. He joined their tribe.
He believes Trenberth’s model trumps the logical outcome of Spencer and Braswell’s study of the data coupled with a simple model suggested by Isaac Held.
It’ll be fun to see Dessler diss Held tomorrow don’t you think?
It can take months and years, sometimes for my SLOW mind to figure out why something someone does or says…raises the hair on the back of my head. This one finally clicked for me. While I was doing my MS work in Mechanical, with a heat transfer specialty, one quarter…in the conduction heat transfer class, our major project was to take a “journal paper”, disect it, apply the method used in the paper to another real world heat transfer problem, and make a 45 minute presentation on the result.
I was given what seemed to be a consice, 4 page paper. I walked into the class, 6 weeks later, with 40 pages of “overheads” (sorry, dating myself)…and spent 55 minutes presenting the method. I did NOT have time to apply it to a problem.
What I discovered was the PRESENTATION was so “compact” that it took 6 weeks to figure out how to use the information.
The alarm bell ringing in my head is that all these “Climate Scientists” are so BRILLIANT they can assess the validity of something such as the S&B paper in a day or two?
Of course not! Only R.P. comes close to being contemplative and deliberate. The rest of it is all drama queen emotional reaction. And shows the utter arrogance of the “Climate Scientist” clique.
We need more Willis E.’s around and less “hoity toit” climate scientist with powdered wigs, and flowing robes.
“He may have fired a very effective shot at the people who forced him out.”
That’s what I see too. A clever, indirect way to publicly expose the peer review flaw to the public. Sort of like suicide by cop.
IT’S OBVIOUSLY A VAST RIGHT-WING CONSPIRACY, funded by Big Oil and promulgated by their stooges in the skeptical media.
“Richard S Courtney says: September 5, 2011 at 4:07 am ”
That is really, really funny! Thankyou.
Well, Richard, here’s a test for your funny bone. Can you say with a straight face that Prof Wagner is a climate modeller?
Nick Stokes asks, Sept 5th, 2011, at 10.00 am:
“Can you say with a straight face that Prof Wagner is a climate modeller?”
We can now:
http://omniclimate.wordpress.com/2011/09/05/the-dismantling-of-prof-dr-wolfgang-wagner/
h/t tallbloke
Nick Stokes:
At September 5, 2011 at 10:00 am you ask me:
“Well, Richard, here’s a test for your funny bone. Can you say with a straight face that Prof Wagner is a climate modeller?”
I only bother to reply because there may be some onlookers who do not understand why I and e.g. tallbloke thought your comment was so hilarious.
As Viv Evans points out at September 5, 2011 at 10:21 am, Wagner is a climate modeller.
Wagner models soil moisture on the basis of remote sensing from satellites.
The satellites cannot measure surface moisture with precision for various reasons. One notable problem is that clouds obscure the satellites’ observation of surface moisture, and another is that local geography affects how the surface obtains moisture and retains it in the soil. Therefore, Wagner has to model a terrain and its associated climate to determine how moisture arrives at a surface region, how that surface loses moisture, and how the moisture is replenished.
But you said;
“And TB, it’s nonsense to say that Wagner is a climate modeller. The sort of terrain modelling that he does could equally be done for satellites orbiting the Moon (if there were soil moisture there).”
The reason there is no moisture on the Moon is because it has no atmosphere and no climate.
And that reason is why your comment is so funny: indeed, your comment is Pythonesque.
Richard
Nick Stokes on Sept, 4th, 2011 at 1:43pm and again 6:06 pm and also on
Sept. 5th at 10:00am:
Nick,
You’ve reiterated the link to Professor Wolfgang Wagner’s short bio page from
his real day job employer, the Vienna University of Technology:
http://www.ipf.tuwien.ac.at/index.php/staff/187-biography-wolfgang-wagner.html
However, a much fuller picture of Professor Wagner’s activities and modeling
expertise can be garnered from the publications and presentations year by year
from 2002 through 2011 that he’s listed on another set of Vienna University
of Technology pages:
http://www.ipf.tuwien/ac/at/index.php/publications.html
He’s been the lead author or coauthor of a great many modeling papers
that cover many more topics than just soil moisture.
Victoria’s Secrets should have so many models to their credit !
Vienna University of Technology: