Poll now closed. Results below will be submitted to ARCUS on Sept 1st.
Once again, I’m going to give WUWT readers an opportunity to make a forecast for submission, based on voting. See the poll at the end. I’m late getting this online this month as other things took precedence.
For reference, here’s last months forecast poll and the final submission with all other forecasts from other groups. The final forecast poll you can participate in follows.
The value used by ARCUS in the forecast is the NSIDC value as they say here:
The sea ice monthly extent for September 2010 was 4.9 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates.
So don’t be using the JAXA graph to forecast minimums, though it it useful for determining short term trends as it is more responsive than the NSDIC graph below, which is averaged.
Right now the NSIDC value is about 5 million square kilometers.
[ UPDATE: NSIDC’s Julienne Strove from NSIDC writes in comments:
“Note, the NSIDC value today is 4.66 million sq-km.”
Of course NSDIC doesn’t publish the daily values like JAXA does, so we all have to guess since we aren’t privy to that information.
The 5 day average graph is all the public gets. And of course, any estimate is hampered not only by the average, but also by those coarseness of the Y axis. I’ve asked before for NSIDC to publish the daily value and the response has been that they have more important issues to attend to. However, clearly the ARCUS forecast group is watching this number and it is important to the final forecast done by over a dozen groups now. So you think it would be valuable to post the daily data. -Anthony]
Here’s the latest JAXA graph:
JAXA AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent -15% or greater – click to enlarge
Here’s the poll for the ARCUS August outlook, it will run until Sept 1st at midnight PST.
(NOTE/UPDATE: This poll was originally exactly like all the others done over the last several months, but one snarky commenter (the first one) complained that I was a “manipulator” because it didn’t have more lower values. Of course he never bother to ask why or look at the history of the other polls.
I had considered initially adding those lower values for this poll, but then figured I’d be derided for changing the poll and not being consistent with the other polls. In retrospect, I’ll be criticized no matter what I do, so within 20 minutes of it going online, I decided to extend this poll with 0.1 million km increments down to 4.0 million kilometers. I’ve also removed the options for voting 5.5 to 6.0 (which existed in prior polls) since they are outside the current bounds of possibility based on previous September history. – Anthony
Based on the other posts that show slightly warmer temps, I am going to go with 4.5 – 4.6. MK2.
I spoke with some polar bears who confided and concur. After all they liver there… I do not.
Prost!
Ian H says:
August 31, 2011 at 6:03 pm
The heat loss of the ice melting from below, unless it is due to undersea volcanoes, indicates a problem coming down the road. The atmosphere isn’t very good at holding heat energy, the ocean is. We need the oceanic heat energy to moderate Winter, not wasted on melting renewable Arctic Sea Ice.
The 00z GFS has opened up the Fram again for flushing out of the weak ice in it..which will help drive a hole between it an the main ice pack and flush more ice out.
The Beaufort stays in a compaction mode that weakens by day 2 and strengthens by day 3. The ESB stays in a compaction mode the next 2 days then sees more variable winds with the Far East part semi diverging but nothing close to the recent beaufort divergence.
the Barrents, then Laptev, then Kara all face powerful warm winds blowing over warm SSTs..that area will get eaten then compact..the winds slowly wind around to hammer the 135E to 105E with 20-30kt winds.
we saw what happened in the beaufort.
I would expect 40-70Km2 drops the next 3 days..closer to 40-55Km2 but 70km2 is possible.
We will be within 50km2 of 2007 by the 2nd.
08,27,2007,4773906 08,28,2007,4724844 08,29,2007,4664844 08,30,2007,4616094 08,31,2007,4607031 09,01,2007,4610938 09,02,2007,4617031 09,03,2007,4580000 09,04,2007,4528125 09,05,2007,4484531 09,06,2007,4447031 09,07,2007,4436719 09,08,2007,4413438 09,09,2007,4399531 09,10,2007,4367188 09,11,2007,4343438 09,12,2007,4327969 09,13,2007,4323750 09,14,2007,4291250 09,15,2007,4267813 09,16,2007,4267656 09,17,2007,4268750 09,18,2007,4281406 09,19,2007,4296250 09,20,2007,4310313 09,21,2007,4284531 09,22,2007,4276719 09,23,2007,4267344 09,24,2007,4254531 09,25,2007,4265000 09,26,2007,4297813 09,27,2007,4372188 09,28,2007,4441719 09,29,2007,4499688 09,30,2007,4592969
the 2nd/3rd will likely be the closest we get this year.
there will be -10C 850s but just north of Greenland so they do not effect the extent yet.
I don’t think that the Arctic sea ice looks any different this year than it did last year I am comparing this year and last year using Nansen Arctic Roos as I always have.I think that we are in a no win situation with regard to the annual summer ice extent,if it goes up it means nothing but if it falls it is then significant, the warmist have nothing to lose and if they don’t get what they want this year then there is next year.I could say that we should look at the Antarctic as well or that it is not important that sea ice has declined but warmists take the same attitude to global temperatures and global temperatures in some way determine how we calculate co2 sensitivity.I think that what will happen over the next decade is that Arctic sea ice extents will recover and global temperatures will fall(Joe Bastardi and Joe D’aleo) i expect this will happen for the reasons they have given.
@ur momisugly Don Penman
Arctic Sea Ice extent is currently 600,000K roughly lower on Jaxa then this date last season.
And about 750,000K on Bremen.
Ice thickness by ships and buoy data is quite a bit lower as well.
Concentration maps are deceiving because a thin layer has developed over the melt ponds and cracks which makes the concentration look solid. But the ice thickness is still as bad.
I don’t think the ice is much different it has been bad since 2007.
We likely saw a slight recovery in 08 an 09 and then warmer temps have come back to the arctic…but favorable winds compared to 07.
I’m still amazed people are picking values 5.4-5.5 as the average for September. It’s likely to go down a bit more yet before increasing and it is already at about 4.7 according to Julienne.
REPLY: I think these are people who don’t like WUWT who are trying to screw up the poll. They’ll be considered outliers though in the submission. – Anthony
don penman says:
August 31, 2011 at 9:23 pm
“….I think that we are in a no win situation with regard to the annual summer ice extent,if it goes up it means nothing but if it falls it is then significant, the warmist have nothing to lose and if they don’t get what they want this year then there is next year.”
Don,
I agree with you, in part. You stated the AGW proponents perspective above. Let me rephrase that just slightly. “When the annual minimum of arctic ice extent and/or volume increases, it is just weather. When the annual minimum of arctic ice extent and/or volume decreases, it is a sign of Anthropogenic Global Warming (or Climate Disruption, Climate Deception, etc. ad nauseum.).”
This is not a ‘no win’ situation. Just keep pointing out the logical fallacy of this hypocritical non-argument! Reasonable people understand this… and those are the folks we can and need to convince. The planet has been warming in fits and starts, since the onset of this interglacial period about 10,000 years ago. It will continue until onset of cooling and the next glacial period, regardless of the trace amounts of atmospheric CO2. Year on year, we are ‘winning’ the argument, as various polls show majorities now rejecting the AGW meme.
As for the AGW confirmed believers, it isn’t worth wasting your breath, time, or energy on them. They are becoming as isolated and irrelevant as Luddites.
Interesting graphic for comparison purposes:
http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/images/20071001_extent.png
“Cool Hat” Hansen must be getting ready to hit the barricades again is my guess.
Henry@Ron de Haan & on the ice decline
I also discovered the global warming is not global…
It is a NH thing. See here:
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
My problem is that I could not get any historical reliable temperature data giving me the maxima, means and minima from the antarctic
but looking at all my results from the SH, I very much doubt that there is any warming in the antarctic at all. I suspect it is cooling there, or at the evry least no warming, which probably explains why it it so difficult for me getting reliable data from there….
In summary, what I have found:
1) The statement that an increased greenhouse effect due to the increase in CO2 causes any -or any extra – warming of earth is wrong. 2) Most of the observed warming of the planet is due to natural causes, i.e. the sun shone a bit more brightly and/or there were less clouds. 3) It appears more carbon dioxide is good as it causes more greenery. 4) It is the increase in vegetation observed mostly in the northern hemisphere that causes some additional warming on top of the natural warming as it is trapping some of the extra heat…..It is caused by man (wanting more trees and gardens) and by a little more heat and more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Isn’t that ironic?
You might want to check how I came to that:
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/more-carbon-dioxide-is-ok-ok
Actually, the polls here are a great example of the value of concensus.
When summer arrives, snow is usually a thing of the past, and when winter gets here, you’ll wish you had enjoyed the weather you had.
AndyW says:
August 31, 2011 at 10:26 pm
I’m still amazed people are picking values 5.4-5.5 as the average for September. It’s likely to go down a bit more yet before increasing and it is already at about 4.7 according to Julienne.
REPLY: I think these are people who don’t like WUWT who are trying to screw up the poll. They’ll be considered outliers though in the submission. – Anthony
I think that is a little harsh Anthony. The NSIDC chart is difficult to assess with regard to accurate estimates as it only has a rough vertical axis with no figure of 5. To get an estimate one has to use a ruler and make a judgement, however this rough method is fraught with discrepancies and can lead to inaccurate guesses.
REPLY: There’s a dearth of votes between 5.0 and 5.5, thats why I think it’s just people picking the highest number in hopes that will be the top vote getter – Anthony
R. Gates says:
August 31, 2011 at 1:24 pm
– New Little Ice age is postponed indefinitely.
I do hope you are correct, otherwise the implication for humanity are appalling.
“Making out like someone is a fool if a prediction isn’t correct is just absurd.”
Wise advice. Remember that when we talk about Hathaway on sunspots and the IPCC on warming, and serreze on the death spiral. Allowing people to make mistakes is something we seem to have forgotten.
All good fun, I suppose.
Yes, there may be many on here that predicted high.
But my guess is that they are far more fearful of the endless and boring cacophany of alarmists trumpeting doom and crowing that it somehow proves that the “Science is Really Settled” than they are about the prospect of a completely ice free Arctic.
I commented somewhere on WUWT a couple of years back (one of Goddard’s posts?) that I promise to sit up and take notice when the Arctic is ice free in February.
Until then, I’m much more worried about sitting shivering in the dark here in the UK. Thanks, not least, to the fraudulent and incompetent Thermogeddonists and their political stooges.
AndyW said I’m still amazed people are picking values 5.4-5.5 as the average for September. It’s likely to go down a bit more yet before increasing and it is already at about 4.7 according to Julienne.
REPLY: I think these are people who don’t like WUWT who are trying to screw up the poll. They’ll be considered outliers though in the submission. – Anthony
Just curious, but how about the people that still vote 5.3-5.4 ? Are these also people that don’t like WUWT who are trying to screw up the poll ?
Pamela Gray, do you want to comment ? Do you want to ‘screw up the poll’ or ‘ picking the highest number in hopes that will be the top vote getter’ as Anthony suggests ?
Bill Illis says:
August 31, 2011 at 4:55 pm
If you want to see the NH sea ice extent in an historical perspective, here is the cycle by day from 1972 to today – along with the anomaly versus the 1972 to 2010 average.
While there is a small decline, I think the disaster projections by some are shown to be greatly exaggerated with this chart.
http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/8826/dailysei1972aug3011.png
——-
Just eye-balling the numbers on that graph it shows that the sea ice extent has dropped from ~7 million to 5 million in 40 years, so a drop of ~30%.
Small decline is that? I’d hardly say a 30% decline is a small amount would you?
“Reality of sea ice is starting to bite”
“a little reported story about the way increasing sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere has resulted in Sweden withholding an icebreaker from US use in Antarctica. After increasingly bitter winters that have resulted in more iced over navigation passages, the Swedish government wrote to US Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, to announce that the icebreaker Oden (pictured) will be kept at home and not be made available to support the work of the US National Science Foundation (NSF) in Antarctica, for the first time since 2006.”
Read it all including a copy of the letter at Autonomous Mind (h/t Bishop Hill)
http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2011/08/31/reality-of-sea-ice-is-starting-to-bite/
henry@SteveE
read this
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/31/final-arctic-sea-ice-forecast-poll/#comment-733654
the problem is that the increase in vegetation appears to trap some heat and which is causing some extra warming. That explains why is it mostly only happening in the NH.
Any suggestions on how to solve the problem of how to tell tell people to stop planting trees?
(if you want more ice in the arctic)
Guys, bets are off. http://www.barentsobserver.com/gazprom-ready-to-melt-icebergs.4953429-116321.html
No wonder the ice is melting faster than ever
The ARCUS prediction is for the September monthly average – not the extent minimum. Picking a value equal to or only slightly smaller than the current extent is not completely insane, but not likely.
In the last ten years the Sept 30 value has been consistently equal to or higher than the Sept 1 value (IJIS daily data). The monthly average has been about 2% lower than the Sept 1 value. 2007’s monthly average was 5% lower than the Sept 1 extent.
Using these past trends as a basis, this year’s IJIS September average should be 4.71mk,^2. If we accept that NSIDC numbers tend to run approximately 140kkm^2 lower than IJIS, we can correct for the offset and predict 4.57.
SteveE says:
September 1, 2011 at 1:32 am
Bill Illis says:
While there is a small decline, I think the disaster projections by some are shown to be greatly exaggerated with this chart.
http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/8826/dailysei1972aug3011.png
——-
Just eye-balling the numbers on that graph it shows that the sea ice extent has dropped from ~7 million to 5 million in 40 years, so a drop of ~30%.
Small decline is that? I’d hardly say a 30% decline is a small amount would you?
Look again. The yearly moving average has declined perhaps 15%. Nice cherry-picking, though.
And anyway, ice extent is higher today than it has been for much of the past 9000 years. Climate was warmer and wetter than today during the Climate Optimum (Alarmists of all stripes should ponder and meditate upon that word). Shockingly enough, there was no “death spiral” of the ice then, and no “climate tipping point”. Since then, there have been periods both warmer as well as cooler than now. It’s called natural climate change, and it has very little to do with C02 (which, obligingly follows along, some 800 years behind whatever the climate does). Imagine that.
Regarding the 5.3-5.4 and above 5.4 discussion, there’s probably two things going on. First, no doubt some anti-WUWT contributors are trying to mess with the poll. It would be amazing if they weren’t given the nature of the web.
Second, this is a monthly average we’re being polled on. Those who, like Pamela Gray perhaps, think that we will get an early freeze-up might think that 4.6 or so will be the low but that by mid-September we will be back over 5.0 and headed higher, so that a 5.3 average is possible, as it is.
J says:
August 31, 2011 at 8:33 am
What is the state of our understanding of underwater volcanoes in the arctic? Do they exists? Are they active? Are there studies about their influence on arctic ice?
I read somewhere that they recently discovered the volcanoes in the Arctic had become more active around 1999. I haven’t seen anything else since then. That doesn’t mean they are affecting the ice however although the correlation is interesting.
As I’ve mentioned before I think there is a long lag time in ice buildup and melt. We are now seeing the effect of the warm 80s-00s so don’t expect any significant increase in ice for many years no matter what happens with temperatures. It takes a while to build up core ice thickness and until that happens the summer ice melt will continue to be significant.
Amino,
You should read the original paper. It doesn’t say what you state here.
It examines only the Western Arctic, specifically an area of the Chukchi sea that is a fraction of the total Arctic sea ice area. Included in the conclusion is this:
http://bprc.osu.edu/geo/publications/mckay_etal_CJES_08.pdf