Poll now closed. Results below will be submitted to ARCUS on Sept 1st.
Once again, I’m going to give WUWT readers an opportunity to make a forecast for submission, based on voting. See the poll at the end. I’m late getting this online this month as other things took precedence.
For reference, here’s last months forecast poll and the final submission with all other forecasts from other groups. The final forecast poll you can participate in follows.
The value used by ARCUS in the forecast is the NSIDC value as they say here:
The sea ice monthly extent for September 2010 was 4.9 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates.
So don’t be using the JAXA graph to forecast minimums, though it it useful for determining short term trends as it is more responsive than the NSDIC graph below, which is averaged.
Right now the NSIDC value is about 5 million square kilometers.
[ UPDATE: NSIDC’s Julienne Strove from NSIDC writes in comments:
“Note, the NSIDC value today is 4.66 million sq-km.”
Of course NSDIC doesn’t publish the daily values like JAXA does, so we all have to guess since we aren’t privy to that information.
The 5 day average graph is all the public gets. And of course, any estimate is hampered not only by the average, but also by those coarseness of the Y axis. I’ve asked before for NSIDC to publish the daily value and the response has been that they have more important issues to attend to. However, clearly the ARCUS forecast group is watching this number and it is important to the final forecast done by over a dozen groups now. So you think it would be valuable to post the daily data. -Anthony]
Here’s the latest JAXA graph:
JAXA AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent -15% or greater – click to enlarge
Here’s the poll for the ARCUS August outlook, it will run until Sept 1st at midnight PST.
(NOTE/UPDATE: This poll was originally exactly like all the others done over the last several months, but one snarky commenter (the first one) complained that I was a “manipulator” because it didn’t have more lower values. Of course he never bother to ask why or look at the history of the other polls.
I had considered initially adding those lower values for this poll, but then figured I’d be derided for changing the poll and not being consistent with the other polls. In retrospect, I’ll be criticized no matter what I do, so within 20 minutes of it going online, I decided to extend this poll with 0.1 million km increments down to 4.0 million kilometers. I’ve also removed the options for voting 5.5 to 6.0 (which existed in prior polls) since they are outside the current bounds of possibility based on previous September history. – Anthony
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
With all due respect, its amazing how you have no time for this even though Jaxa just dropped to 4.8 milkm2 on August 30th. and Bremen has plummeted below 2007 near 4.5-4.6km2.
Do you have anything to say about your 5,750,000km2 prediction?
Do you have no shame in what you are doing here? Any? Does a human being actually exist inside you? What convenient excuse are you going to throw out there? How long will this shame last? Long enough to make money? Fame? What are you going to do as this goes on?
Good Luck.
You might want to adjust your poll.
You’ve left only two realistic options and left a 500km2 gap between them.
Whats manipulator you are Sir.
REPLY: Oh puhleeze. And if you bothered to check, these are the EXACT same options as all the other polls I conducted over the last several months when it looked like it would be higher. My thought was if I were to add to it, people would then complain this poll doesn’t match the others. “Damned if I do, damned if I don’t”. Chris, don’t call me a manipulator, particularly when you can’t be bothered to check the history prior to mouthing off an accusation. – Be as upset as you wish.
See note added in the body of the message – Anthony Watts
Hey! it looks OK to me.
Looks like it will parallel 2007 with a larger area. But? what is the average thickness? Area means very little without thickness.
(This is probably hidden sonewhere on the site where I can’t find it).
My suggestion is to just remain Honest Anthony. Don’t change your approach trying to pander to people who could take issue with the way you present information. If you think what you do is accurate and gives most readers the right impression, then it’s all you can do. *wonders if Chris was one of the 2 people who selected 6.0 million km^2 as the artic ice extent*
REPLY: Well the possibility does exist that the final number will be somewhere between 4.0 and 4.5, where it didn’t seem likely a month ago, so adapting to the conditions isn’t a bad thing I guess. It’s like recalibrating your instrument in the field to measure lower values because those are the one coming in. Like I said I’ll be damned if I do, damned if I don’t so I may as well be damned for providing more options. Votes that are above the current 5.0 million sq kilometers value will probably be considered outliers anyway, so I’ve decided to remove those options for 5.5 to 6.0 . – Anthony
NSIDC is between 4.8 and 4.9km2.
You predicted 5,750,000km2 minimum for this year.
Please be accountable for that.
REPLY: Again you are incapable of reading. I made one prediction personally this year, 4.9 million sqkm seen here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/31/sea-ice-news-arcus-forecast-from-readers-submitted/
If you read the ARCUS forecasts, you’ll also see others that predicted initially high values, even last month there were two other groups predicting higher values than the WUWT reader poll:
Of course, since your interest is clearly all about denigration, none of that will matter to you I’m sure. But its all there in all the reports open for anyone to look at. Just search for ARCUS in the search box and you’ll see all the polls and reports over the last few months – Anthony
I’m sticking with 4.9 to 5.0, as I have throughout. I think we’re near the low point now and it’ll turn flat within days, like it did in 2006.
tallbloke says:
August 31, 2011 at 2:00 am
I’m sticking with 4.9 to 5.0, as I have throughout. I think we’re near the low point now and it’ll turn flat within days.
I agree. Looking at the images on Cryosphere Today it looks like the ice has been making a quick recovery in concentration over the last 2 weeks.
Don’t sweat the ice area statistics. The thickness is much greater today, and we could even say the volume is likely more. Arctic temperatures above 80°N have been colder this summer and September. The ice area will rebound quickly, of course. I projected a 5.75 million sq km min. for 2011 a couple weeks back. I’m sticking to it.
You said you were sticking to it Sir? Bad Memory? I think I read that just fine.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/09/19/sea-ice-news-23-plus-a-bonus-noaa-blunder/#comments
REPLY: Note the date: September 19, 2010 Heh, you are so busy trying to find fault you missed a whole year! That was for the 2010 season, and yes, it was off last year. And the all important sentence above it:
He notes this from Pierre Gosselin’s No Tricks Zone. Pierre writes:
Pierre’s quote, embedded in that post, not mine.
The 4.9 forecast I cited above, was for THIS SEASON, done in May 2011. And in case you haven’t figured it out yet, all of this is professionally recorded along with other organizations making forecasts by ARCUS.You apparently haven’t figured any of this out yet. Try pulling your foot out of your mouth and reading the ARCUS polls and forecasts posted on WUWT since. – Anthony
Are you blind, you wrote in the paragraph that it was for 2011?
REPLY: It’s a quote from Pierre Gosselin’s No Tricks zone, embedded, note the italics. I don’t put my own words in italics.
As proof, read the exact same words here:
http://notrickszone.com/2010/09/19/arctic-sea-ice-has-grown-since-september-1/
Your next comment will be interesting – Anthony
First time guess for me – I’m going with 4.5 million km2
I apologize for not understanding the blog post better since that paragraph was cut off from the beginning by the large image. If that was you it would have been very disingenuous. Which is why I was very upset about that.
REPLY: Thank you for your apology – Anthony
Chris Biscan, Anthony Watts screwed up big time last year with his prediction of a recovery and letting Steven Goddard act macho for months on end, but then quietly letting him go when all his bravado was getting flung back in his face. They were off by 1 million square km, they learned (at least Anthony did, Goddard acts the same as ever).
Anthony is just copypasting monthly NSIDC summaries now. This year only Joe Bastardi has made a wishful thinking fool of himself.
August 30 2011 the Sea Ice Extent was 4,803,438 km2. So all the above predictions are already wrong.
I hope it will break the record extent of 2007. And it looks like it will if I compare the trends from the other years in the graph. The trend is still down for the other years during September.
So also Bastardi’s prediction from January 2011 was totally wrong. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAjE7NViElA
Wake up people: Arctic sea ice volume is dropping almost year by year. Extent says nothing about the condition of the ice. The volume trend is down. So stop using this nonsense as if there is nothing happening.
There is a difference between a thickness of 1 cm or 10 cm of ice on a lake. It means the difference between skating or no skating in my country. In either case the lake is covered with the same ice extent. The same is true for the Arctic Sea Ice extent.
But is it unprecedented as many alarmists claim? That’s another question!
4.5Msqkm is my pick, just above 2007.
I still think it’s going for lowest or second lowest.
Sorry, folks, I used a couple of lumps in my G & T last night! Clearly my last prediction was wrong & it appears to be less than I thought! Ho hum!
Well done Chris for apologising promptly. It’s a pity other adversaries aren’t as quick to admit mistakes and mistruths.
I’m raising my guess (previously 4.29) to 4.44 million Km2
5 – 5.1 Same as I have guessed/voted all season. It’s cold up there 8)
Having fun with metrics. Snickering at doom-mongers reasons for why an ice free Arctic is “important”. ROFL at first poster. (At least he stuck around and apologised after dropping his truthbomb)
I’m guessing 4.7, down from 4.9 last month and 5.1 the two times before. The odds on Intrade are 90% that this year will not break 2007’s record.
I will stick with my original guess of 4.7 – 4.8, which I said at the time I was adjusting down. It now looks to me like it may be optimistic (if just slightly). We’ll know in a month.
Looks like the NOAA north pole webcam has had too much Old Pulteney. And what’s that at the top right of the image? (see sea ice page; image captured aug 31 @ur momisugly 4.31 am).
Via the unscientific method of eyeballing, I’m guessing 4.9 mill square klicks.
I voted 5.0-5.1 million and now I’m going to be wrong for a whole year. Another poll won’t help ease my (very minor) pain.
I’m more interested why WUWT readers were the third most likely to vote high. Wishful thinking? A natural defense mechanism against the warmist crowd? Or did something happen in the Arctic that lowered otherwise more accurate predictions?
Stubbornly not going to vote again.
In terms of the ice thickness, the average thickness across the whole Arctic ocean basin is probably always the same at this time of year.
It is thin on the melt edge and thicker in the middle areas. You are not going to have 5.0M km^2 of 4 inch ice. It is just a physical property of large slab of ice. It is melting down from 15M km^2 in March to 5.0M km^2 in September. Thin on the melt edge, thicker across the middle, weighted average thickness is probably always the same.
It is the area or the extent that changes (marginally). 1980’s record 7.85M km2 sea ice minimum probably had the same average ice thickness as 2007’s 4.3M km^2.
——————–
On average, the Arcus Search sea ice minimum for September (as reported by the NSIDC which is the metric) is 222,000 km^2 lower than the August 29, Jaxa number. The expected Sept 2011 number for NSIDC should 4.67M km^2. The range is 4.41M to 4.97M so lots can happen yet depending on the weather.
Why does Robbie say “I hope it will break the record extent of 2007”?
Does he wish there is global warming?