Should Irene have been downgraded sooner?
Cliff Mass, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington and a popular blogger asks, “When Did Irene Stop Being a Hurricane?”
” … there is really no reliable evidence of hurricane-force winds at any time the storm was approaching North Carolina or moving up the East Coast.”
“I took a look at all the observations over Virgina, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. Not one National Weather Service or FAA observation location, not one buoy observations, none reach the requisite wind speed. Most were not even close.’
Cliff makes a clear, systematic and convincing argument that Irene should have been downgraded from a hurricane before it made landfall.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2011/08/when-did-irene-stop-being-hurricane.html
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This is backed up by my observations here of surface windspeeds as Irene passed through North Carolina. While not at the 10 meter height, they still seem much lower than they should be.
h/t to WUWT reader “speed”
They are in a world of hurt in parts of VT and NJ. Look, I am the self crowned king of critiquing the NHC (National Hysteria Center) and have accused them frequently of count padding. but all things considered, this storm ended up being quite a pain in the rear. I think the forecasting and warning management was reasonable in this case.
That’s silly really. This tropical storm/hurricane was damaging – it killed people, it made others homeless. I dislike it when tradegies become political footballs for whatever purpose.
Wind was never going to be such a huge problem – we get 80 mph gales in UK easily few times per year without it being called catastrophic. The storm surge on the other hand…
Frederick Michael said at August 29, 2011 at 7:02 pm:
“Don’t forget that the wind speeds should be higher on the east and lower on the west side of Irene because of the 14MPH northward velocity of the eye. Places on the east should have had sustained windspeeds over 88MPH if Irene was a hurricane.”
Qualification as a hurricane includes forward speed assisting 1-minute-sustained winds in the right side of the eyewall achieving 73-plus MPH.
A borderline hurricane moving at 14 MPH would have 1-minute-sustained windspeeds of only
61 MPH in the eyewall over its path ahead of it, and as low as 49 MPH in the left side of the windiest radius of the eyewall.
Irene was officially barely a hurricane at 8 AM Sunday, 1 hour before reaching NYC, and officially a 65 MPH tropical storm at 9 AM Sunday when it was over NYC.
And since it appears to me that at most the left half of the eyewall got over anywhere in NJ, it appears to me unlikely that anywhere in NJ got 1-minute-sustained winds much past 61 MPH or peak gusts much past 75-80 MPH – even if Irene was actually a hurricane then.
HurrIcane Lili was a cat 1 storm which landed near here, and it caried a 12 foot storm surge. This particular bulldozer had a blade about 120 miles wide. A grazing storm like Irene is less likely to pile up a surge than one coming in perpendicular to shore, but you never know when such a storm will decide to loop around and come in perpendicular. I’ve lived in coastal Louisiana all my life and seen several dozen big storms firsthand. You want to be at least 20 feet above sea level when they come near, regardless of strength. I find them exciting to watch from a safe elevation. The power is intriguing. The sounds haunting and eerie. Gives you a sense of perspective, a respect for nature.
If you think evacuation of large populations is simple, take a look at this picture of Houston prior to Hurricane Rita (and this is with contraflow in effect!) http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2c/RitaHoustonEvacuation.jpg
The only people in a world of hurt in NJ are those who foolishly live in natural flood planes. If the government would stop providing them with flood insurance or funds to rebuild they would move out of these areas.
Population:
Atlantic City – 39,958
Houston – 2,144,491
I think evacuating a small population is simple.
Speaking of AGW causing mental illness (as some have been), I am prompted to comment that this particular blog is a fine source of wisdom. If I were a doctor and had a patient call me, obsessing about AGW and the latest scare, I’d be tempted to say, “Get on WUWT, take in two threads, and call me in the morning.”
In areas where the ground was already saturated. The flooding level wasn’t a pure indication of Irene’s strength.
Reason #229 not to live in a city.
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If you think evacuation of large populations is simple, take a look at this picture of Houston prior to Hurricane Rita (and this is with contraflow in effect!) http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2c/RitaHoustonEvacuation.jpg
Poptech says:
August 30, 2011 at 8:41 pm
” The only people in a world of hurt in NJ are those who foolishly live in natural flood planes. If the government would stop providing them with flood insurance or funds to rebuild they would move out of these areas.”
By that logic people should not be allowed to live in areas that are prone to tornadoes, ice storms, floods, hurricanes, wild fires, avalanche, earthquake or any other kind of natural disaster.
Tom in Florida says:
August 31, 2011 at 5:41 am
“By that logic people should not be allowed to live in areas that are prone to tornadoes, ice storms, floods, hurricanes, wild fires, avalanche, earthquake or any other kind of natural disaster.”
They should not be provided with government subsidized flood insurance. That encourages bad behaviour.
You can build a home anywhere you want, just don’t ask me to rebuild it when it is washed away.
You did not read what I stated. I made no statement about preventing preventing anyone from living in these areas but rather making the risk equal to the cost. If the government did not subsidize flood insurance it would be on the homeowners to find private insurance or foot the bill themselves. Those who could not afford it or did not want to take the risk would not live there. The government is making these disasters worse by subsidizing insurance and providing funds to rebuild.
Poptech says:
August 31, 2011 at 12:07 pm
What’s the difference if I have “government subsidized” flood insurance of which I pay a good portion and those who received federal aid after a natural disaster and pay nothing in advance.
I have long called for a National Natural Disaster Insurance that all property owners pay into in order to receive federal funds after a natural disaster. No pay, no federal funds. Until the playing field is level for all of us, stop crying about flood insurance.
“I have long called for a National Natural Disaster Insurance”
Careful what you ask of government.
Why not just no federal funds for uninsured individuals? If they don’t care enough about their property to insure it, why should I?
We need government to handle basic infrastructure, law enforcement.
No need for a government insurance agency…there are plenty of carriers in the private sector.
Because the insurance premium you pay does not equal the insurance payments issued. The difference is made up with tax money that you do no deserve and have no right to take from the rest of us who responsibly choose to live outside of natural flood plains.
The government should not be involve in ANY form of insurance. You’re only option for insurance should be to pay what ever the market rate is for flood insurance in your area from a private company. If the premiums are too high (hint) don’t live there.
I do not believe anyone should get federal aid after a natural disaster. All federal aide and federal insurance does is encourage bad behavior and redistribute wealth to those who partake in it at the expense of the responsible.
Heh, heh. Irene was the setup for Katia. See, it simultaneously softened up the target area with huge rains and flooding, and discredited the forecasters, so that when Katia comes screaming in, everyone will just say, “Yeah, yeah. Now pull the other one!” and the consequences will be gargantuously gory!
You read it here first.
I too wondered why Irene was still a hurricane when “Tides on Line” a NOAA site showed non-hurricane winds from Wrightsville Beach, NC all the way to Delaware. This was before the lights went out on Sat. for 4 days. The NJ insurance commisioner declared that for the purposes of insurance claims, Irene was not a hurricane, but that was when it was all over.