Should Irene have been downgraded sooner?
Cliff Mass, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington and a popular blogger asks, “When Did Irene Stop Being a Hurricane?”
” … there is really no reliable evidence of hurricane-force winds at any time the storm was approaching North Carolina or moving up the East Coast.”
“I took a look at all the observations over Virgina, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. Not one National Weather Service or FAA observation location, not one buoy observations, none reach the requisite wind speed. Most were not even close.’
Cliff makes a clear, systematic and convincing argument that Irene should have been downgraded from a hurricane before it made landfall.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2011/08/when-did-irene-stop-being-hurricane.html
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This is backed up by my observations here of surface windspeeds as Irene passed through North Carolina. While not at the 10 meter height, they still seem much lower than they should be.
h/t to WUWT reader “speed”
Well, I agree it was pretty feeble as hurricanes go. But it still caused a surprising amount of damange in central Jersey. A good number of homes and shops flooded, many secondary roads were closed yesterday, many people remain without power–some won’t get it until the 4th or later–and New Jersey transit is still not running trains on the Northeast Corridor line.
So wind damage to houses seems minimal; a fair but not excessive number of tress came down; flooding was bad, but not as the Great Flood of ’07. But a fair sized mess overall.
So I was defending a non hurricane. According to FOX it did not decrease in intensity and maintained 85 mph winds as it traveled just inside the edge of NC/Southern VA and then north. I ignored the little voice that said it should have decreased in strength when it hit land, especially after learning the ‘eyewall’ had collapsed before landfall in NC. So. Was FOX (and the TWC) not reporting any decrease or was the NHC not reporting accurately?
Not reportng the dynamic and changing nature of this storm seems to be the problem. Most people hear hurricane, they are thinking high winds and rain at the coastal areas. What we got was devastating floods and power outages inland in some areas, more typical with a large scale tropical storm, and exactly what this evolved into after a weakened landfall in NC.
Blade: word.
Steve Schaper says:
Calling it a ‘rain storm’ is just as destructive as over hyping it. It was a hurricane until it lost its punch just before hitting NC. It should have been downgraded then to a Tropical Storm. That status still carries a lot weight because of the rain a TS dumps.
It’s interesting to read the comments about our “weather event” on the East Coast. Seems like the old parable about the three blind men meeting an elephant for the first time. Each had a wildly different “perception” of the animal. The ironic thread through all of this is that forcasters couldn’t determine what a localized weather event could or would do just a few hours before it reached a location. OK, I can deal with that, I can’t forcast what my cat will do moment to moment either.
And yet many of these folks believe they have the iron-clad answer to world climate in the far future? The expressed inability to forcast the actions of a bounded weather system in the next few hours flys in the face of those to say they clearly see what’s going to happen in the far more complex global system years in the future.
Ya can’t have it both ways…
Mike
In the UK there was a classic parallel to Irene. Someone from France telephoned the BBC Met off to say that the french had forecast a huricane (ourigan) for the following day. Michael Fish said, in his forecast, don’t worry there will not be a huricane. The next day the UK was hit by winds over 110mph (huricane force on the Beaufort scale). Technically it was not a huricane. It was a fast deepening depression which was also a fast moving on and a fast filling one. All three phases were violent and hence the winds. Irene was a huricane at one time, became a tropical storm and then depression. Is it important if NWS calls it a huricane when it’s a tropical storm. Well yes if they are to be the technical experts of weather in the US. For the purpose of informing the public NO. If it’s dangerous, it’s dangerous. Dangerous means, will there be fast approaching floods, will there be a storm front carrying extreme winds (no time to react), will there be loss of power for significant periods. If yes then it’s dangerous. BUT the weathermen and the authorities (no hope for the media), in my opinion, should just be honest and say “this is a dangerous storm so take all the usual precautions. It’s not as if the US hasn’t had huricanes before, but the UK, now that’s different.
To see how damaging Cat 1 or Tropical Storms can be, see Hurricane Agnes in 1972. It was barely a hurricane when it hit Fla., was on a TS as it made its way north killing 129 people and $3 billion in damages, the most costly hurricane ever at that point and the first Cat 1 to have its name retired. I remember as a kid our little Conacagigue Stream, usually no more than 20 feet wide and 3 feet deep swallowing an entire valley in 3 feet of water and the Susquehannah River rising to the 2nd story of buildings in Harrisburg. 18 inches of rain central and east PA.
Sorry if this is a repeat as my first post went through the ozone hole into the ether I guess.
Poptech says:
August 29, 2011 at 4:52 pm
“… Saint George, 70 mph, Tuckerton, 69 mph, Ocean City, 66 mph…”
This is consistent with with a measurement of a rain cell in the eyewall that I clocked at 82.4 mph via NexRad. At an elevation between 2500 and 3600 feet (0.5° beam at 50 to 70 miles), that reduces to about 62 to 66 mph at 33ft elevation using the generic NHC eyewall wind curve.
Check out the sat image of Agens and the flood levels.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/historical/agnes.php
but if it wasn’t really a hurricane what would be affected?
Why, the all important stats of course!
The is a 115 MPH wind speed in NC noted here. That may be just a gust but it may indicate that it was a hurricane.
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/54348/irenes-infamous-top-ten-1.asp
I continue to think NHC/Noaa needs to review their 20 year old technology regarding forecast of
surface (30 ft )wind speeds, and also rethink their entire report format.The 6 hour time interval between updates should also be reviewed. Go back and read the cryptic conclusory ‘discussion’ sections written by apparently one individual instead of a team. These one page, three paragraph reports generate more questions than they answer regarding wind speeds. More technical discussion is needed with opposing views and probabilities also described. Let the public know about the uncertainties, and explain the differences between estimated wind speed and actual ground level measurements. Give the public the facts; they don’t need government spin because the public is irresponsible and can’t protect themselves from uncertainty.
Judging a tropical-type storm by pressure would be problematic. The potential winds are determined by the storm-center pressure, but also by the ambient pressure fields surrounding the storm. The lower the surrounding “high” pressure, the less the potential wind speeds.
j ferguson says:
August 29, 2011 at 4:26 pm
“… but if it wasn’t really a hurricane what would be affected?”
Staying away from a cheeky response, the answer is PUBLIC OPINION of the reliability of the forecast and what they will actually see when it gets to them. For many years people were warned of storms and hurricanes along the Gulf Coast, and saw nothing more dangerous than a lot of rain and a bit of wind. It got to be common place for people to have hurricane parties… such as the one at Richelieu Manor Apartments in 1969. Allegedly the only survivor floated out the window on a mattress and wound up in a tree about 12 miles away.
If the news service had any integrity, they would have called this what it was. A massive tropical storm shorty after landfall and a hurricane up until that point. A lot of people are going to take away the impression that a hurricane is just a big rain event with some wind. That will work fine until they spend the night huddled in the hallway as 115 mph winds tear through the neighborhood for 2 hours or get caught out on the interstate as it makes landfall.
******
Pull My Finger says:
August 30, 2011 at 7:17 am
I remember as a kid our little Conacagigue Stream, usually no more than 20 feet wide and 3 feet deep swallowing an entire valley in 3 feet of water and the Susquehannah River rising to the 2nd story of buildings in Harrisburg. 18 inches of rain central and east PA.
*****
Sounds like you were close to where I lived at the time. If your “Conacagigue” stream is the same one that runs from east of Chambersburg, PA southwest to the Potomac River, I think the correct spelling is “Conococheaque”. But the way you spelled it actually sounds like how it’s pronounced. 🙂
340,000 customers without electricity in RI. I’m well into a third day without it. Does it really matter that the sustained wind speeds were less the 75mph? Enough nit-picking already.
Tropical Storms and Hurricanes should be designated by both a number and a letter. The number would designate the usual wind speed and the letter would designate the expected ocean surge and rainfall. It was these latter elements that caused most of the Irene damage.
Beng, that’s the one. I knew I spelled it wrong, but was too lazy to look it up. Darn Indians don’t know how to spell. We lived in Spring Valley at the time, not surprisingly near the spring where the creek orginated. Spent many a lazy summer day floating down the creek in intertubes and fishing off one of the many bridges. Lived near Chambersburg until 1991. Looking at Google Maps it’s nice to see the area is still mostly farm land as far as the eye can see.
Gary says:
August 30, 2011 at 8:19 am
“340,000 customers without electricity in RI. I’m well into a third day without it. Does it really matter that the sustained wind speeds were less the 75mph?”
Actually, it does matter. Someone is going to walk away from this with an erroneous idea of what a Hurricane is.
Third day without power? Get back to me when it’s been four weeks. I’ll be impressed then.
Bad storm? Yes. I agree. Hurricane? No. Not in Rhode Island. You’ve had Nor’Easters worse than this.
All it could possibly evacuate is Absecon Island (Longport – Atlantic City) and Brigantine (aprox 12 miles). My point was that people who live in those areas had a viable and safe evacuation route that had no chance of flooding with Irene. I have no problem with “warnings”, I have a problem with dictatorial mandatory evacuations that are unnecessary.
Regardless or whether or not Irene was a hurricane or not, it was very destructive. So the question is, what more can be done to prevent or mitigate crippling disasters? Will the money spent be worth it?
NOAA is claiming 725 billion in damages for natural events of all types since 1980, half of that credited to tropical storms and hurricanes. Earthquakes are not included.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/reports/billion/state2010.pdf
Bing,
Another reason that evacuations are made mandatory is because if it’s not mandatory, criminals tend to stay and rob the homes of those who wisely choose to leave. Making the evacuation mandatory gives police the authority to pick up criminals taking advantage of the empty homes. It just works better this way.
Sorry if that smacks of socialism, but if you think about it, any form of government is socialistic by its very nature. IMHO our job is to limit “governing” to a reasonable level.
Theo Goodwin says:
August 29, 2011 at 5:33 pm
In practical terms, hurricanes knock down things. They knock down trees, some buildings, and power lines. They bring torrential rain that causes flooding. When a hurricane is coming your way, the best solution is to leave town.
The next level down is the tropical storm. Tropical storms bring torrential rain that causes flooding. If you are safe from floods, you do not have to leave town or even miss work.
Big difference, wouldn’t you say?
Indeed, by your practical definition it was certainly a hurricane when over NJ.
Many trees, power lines and some buildings knocked down. I had 5 hours of tornado watch during the night, 30 hr loss of power (minor compared to many who are still waiting for it to be restored).
Of course the flooding was legendary, ~10″ of rain onto already saturated ground led to the worst floods in 100 years. Most people missed work yesterday because it was impossible to get anywhere.
Tornado damage: http://media.nj.com/star-ledger/photo/9945996-essay.jpg
Flood and fire (Jersey shore): http://media.nj.com/star-ledger/photo/9945982-essay.jpg
Big thing knocked down: http://media.nj.com/star-ledger/photo/9945980-essay.jpg
Water knocks stuff down real good. In fact, in the long run, there is very little on earth that knocks down stuff as effectively as moving water.
You can get a lotta water from a Tropical Storm, or even a good old thunderstorm, as I experienced last week. Thunderstorms knock stuff down real good too even though they rarely produce 70mph gusts.