Should Irene have been downgraded sooner?
Cliff Mass, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington and a popular blogger asks, “When Did Irene Stop Being a Hurricane?”
” … there is really no reliable evidence of hurricane-force winds at any time the storm was approaching North Carolina or moving up the East Coast.”
“I took a look at all the observations over Virgina, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. Not one National Weather Service or FAA observation location, not one buoy observations, none reach the requisite wind speed. Most were not even close.’
Cliff makes a clear, systematic and convincing argument that Irene should have been downgraded from a hurricane before it made landfall.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2011/08/when-did-irene-stop-being-hurricane.html
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This is backed up by my observations here of surface windspeeds as Irene passed through North Carolina. While not at the 10 meter height, they still seem much lower than they should be.
h/t to WUWT reader “speed”
lol, Boy is he in for some anger. More people trying to take their storm away from them!
Irene goodnight, Irene goodnight
Goodnight Irene, goodnight Irene
I’ll see you in my dreams
I love Irene, God knows I do
I’ll love her till the seas run dry
And if Irene turns her back on me
I’d take morphine and die
Irene goodnight, Irene goodnight
Goodnight Irene, goodnight Irene
I’ll see you in my dreams
Help me to understand why what the storm is called is important? It seems like it was a pretty big storm, but if it wasn’t really a hurricane what would be affected? I don’t ask this question to be argumentative, but to better understand whether there was a reason to mislead us about this storm and if so what it might be.
I live in the Baltimore Washington region so we were on the perifery of the storm. Irene was quite menacing as it approached but a major weather front from the Midwest came through on Thursday and when this front met up with Irene, it seemed to push it a bit more eastward and made it less organized. So it had a softer punch as it was more dispersed and we certainly got a lot of rain coupled with a long period of sustained winds but not the intensity everyone expected. Joe Bastardi spoke about his over on Steve Goddards blogs adminishing Steve that this is still a very powerful storm and can do (and did) a lot of damage. Joe maintains storms like this ought to be rated on the atmospheric pressure at their core, rather than on wind speed alone as this would better reflect their destructive potential.
But if they had downgraded it before landfall, then no politicians could have claimed credit for avoiding the Katrina scenario. It’s unfortunate that weather has become so politicized.
I went though both this in the DC burbs, and the 1991 “Perfect Storm” in Boston. Both times inland from the storm. In 1991 we had 40+ MPH sustained winds, and a ~100 year old oak broke in half and just missed my girlfriend’s car. Irene had lesser winds but a lot of annoying northwest rain. I saw quite a few downed large branches and a couple uprooted big trees near my home, probably due to the extended rain saturation.
The Perfect Storm was a lot of wind. This one was a lot of rain. I suppose the question of whether both or either were actually hurricanes will bother weather pros for a long time.
Irene might not have been one big tornado that flattened everything in it’s path, but it is still causing problems in my area. Flood waters are still rising with dams being threatened around the state. Major roads have been closed today, well away from the shore. Places such as Millville and Vineland are being threatened with flooding from nearby lakes. During the storm many roads around the barrier islands were under water, so I don’t know why people would have wanted to be there anyway. If it had strengthened at the last minute it would have been too late to get those people out. Wait til the end of the week and we will see that Irene was a slow train wreck, but a train wreck none the less.
Much of what we see on TV is self-reinforcing, managed “news.” When the expected inundation of New York didn’t happen, the TV cameras moved to cover floods in rural Vermont. Now it is certainly sad when a 100 year old covered bridge gets washed away, but it was, after all, 100 years old.
The NHC followed the same boring procedures they have had in place for as long as I can recall.
The forecasters at the NHC should be left alone to do their jobs, which were performed just fine. Let the liberal media figure out who is the “Leader in Reporting Disasters”.
The hurricane’s large-wind field and low pressure of 950 mb is confusing a lot of folks out there. I recall discussing the failed eyewall replacement cycle, dry air entrainment, and vertical shear prior to it hitting North Carolina. That stuff is NOT predictable that far in advance, even 12-24 hours.
So, 36-hours prior to NC landfall, all indications were that that a major or at least category 2 hurricane was going to hit land. I Tweeted that the dry-air would infiltrate Irene and “poof” out the inner-core eventually, but even I was not expecting the large destructive effect of the dry air.
There was very-very limited damage (some roof and siding damage) and non-existent flooding at the Atlantic City area of the Jersey Shore about 20 miles south of where it made land fall. There was no way we experienced Hurricane force winds and the stats confirm this,
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/54348/irenes-infamous-top-ten-1.asp
Saint George, 70 mph
Tuckerton, 69 mph
Ocean City, 66 mph
j ferguson says:
August 29, 2011 at 4:26 pm
Help me to understand why what the storm is called is important? It seems like it was a pretty big storm, but if it wasn’t really a hurricane what would be affected? I don’t ask this question to be argumentative, but to better understand whether there was a reason to mislead us about this storm and if so what it might be.
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Easy, it’s been over 1000 days since a real hurricane has made landfall in the U.S. Dr. Maue’s information shows us the ACE values of total cyclones are decreasing.
The whole CAGW argument hinges upon our climate/weather events getting worse, not better. If a bit of warming is beneficial for us, (and it is) then the public doesn’t care. But, conversely, if they can show how hurricanes hitting the U.S. are increasing….. then they’ll correlate it to CO2 and CAGW.
In this particular storm, there were a few other groups with a vested interest in it being worse than it was. The media hyped it like no tomorrow…… people even suggested we needed a new Cat6! The current administration also wanted it to be worse than what it was, for two reasons. One, they wanted to demonstrate and contrast between the last administration, and two, we’ve recently raised the debt ceiling and that money is burning a hole in their pocket, they’d like another stimulus package but, a rebuilding package would have worked for them, as well.
Oh, and then there is that truth thingy that some people get sooooo hung up on.
Hope that helps.
James
Aside from readily available political reasons, it could be claimed that Irene was left as a hurricane for social/safety reasons. To have downgraded it into it’s actual category may have led people to believe that the storm posed less danger, and thereby not take precautions. It’s an improper excuse, but an excuse none the less.
Garry says:
August 29, 2011 at 4:43 pm
Water, all by itself, is a prime mover, especially since a lot had fallen just recently.
Hurricane force winds would have exacerbated an already bad situation, so in that respect, the East Coast dodged a bullet. It could have been worse, a lot worse.
j ferguson:
It’s been almost 3 years since a hurricane made landfall in the US. This is an exceptionally long empty streak in an age when we are told by certain camps to expect an increase in frequency and intensity of these destructive storms.
Landfalling hurricanes are the only consistent gauge we have to measure long term frequency and trends of Hurricanes. So it matters. Is the calm streak over, or it is continuing? By upgrading storms that would have been considered lessor by past standards, it is possible that artificial trends are being introduced.
So as long as the weather has become political. It matters.
I hope that when the season is done and the NHC does its post-mortem on the season, that they make a special effort to publicize what went wrong with Irene. I read that they noted a disconnect between the wind speeds aloft and those on the ground. This should be a real learning experience for all.
That being said, it still was a massive rainstorm and area flooding will be a concern for many parts of Irene’s path for days to come.
Irene also demonstrates what a fragile thing a hurricane can be as its winds quickly faded.
Ryan Maue says:
August 29, 2011 at 4:50 pm
The NHC followed the same boring procedures they have had in place for as long as I can recall.
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Of that, I have no doubt. No one, or rather no one in their right mind would expect people to forecast a hurricane to the exact time, speed and location, and breadth. They just don’t cooperate like that.
But, that brings us to another question or two. And I’m hoping you can shed some light……. They were still calling it a hurricane….. or someone was, when the wind speeds said differently, at least the wind speeds that were accessible to the public when it made landfall. I can’t think of a more appropriate time and place to say, WUWT!
Any insights you have would be appreciated.
James
I monitored the winds from here in Toronto and for a moment I thought they had confusednmetric for imperial measurements. The warning should have been for heavy rains/flooding, winds to 50 mph, chance of tornado, from the time it hit NC.
j ferguson says:
August 29, 2011 at 4:26 pm
“Help me to understand why what the storm is called is important? It seems like it was a pretty big storm, but if it wasn’t really a hurricane what would be affected? I don’t ask this question to be argumentative, but to better understand whether there was a reason to mislead us about this storm and if so what it might be.”
In practical terms, hurricanes knock down things. They knock down trees, some buildings, and power lines. They bring torrential rain that causes flooding. When a hurricane is coming your way, the best solution is to leave town.
The next level down is the tropical storm. Tropical storms bring torrential rain that causes flooding. If you are safe from floods, you do not have to leave town or even miss work.
Big difference, wouldn’t you say?
“When Did Irene Stop Being a Hurricane?”
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Not until their computer games tells them so……
Don’t you know by now…there is no reality outside of the monitor……..
The planes found winds where no one was….the pressure said it was…….
They “adjusted” from that what the speed would be on land…..
…so it had to be
just like everything else, actual measurements be damned
But if you downgrade it to early then how will CNN whip up hysteria to sell more advertising, how will the government talking heads get more airtime?
If you downgrade to early, even if it is the truth, then the President can’t go to the Command Center for a cool photo op and Warmistas can’t make up ludicrous claims linking glowball warmin’ with fear of Hurricanes.
Really quite simple
Bill Nye the science guy was just on Fox Business news and Joe Bastardi was on Fox News discussing Irene and Global Warming. It was too funny watching them speak back to back. Bill Nye the science guy discussed it in terms of some racism analogy and Joe stated the Atlantic weather events are just weather doing what weather does — nothing to do with Global Warming.
The video clips should be posed in a while on Fox. I will post the links later when I find them posted.
As Toby Nixon states above “It’s unfortunate that weather has become so politicized.” Although Irene was a big storm, and it has done a lot of damage, and it has inconvenienced millions of people, I believe it was over hyped for political purposes. For example, was “Hurricane” Irene any worse than “Tropical Storm” Agnes? I don’t think so. But the media was doing its best to hype Irene and make the various and assorted government officials, including President Obama, look important. When politicians get involved, the theatrics ramp up.
Ryan Maue says:
August 29, 2011 at 4:50 pm
“The hurricane’s large-wind field and low pressure of 950 mb is confusing a lot of folks out there. I recall discussing the failed eyewall replacement cycle, dry air entrainment, and vertical shear prior to it hitting North Carolina. That stuff is NOT predictable that far in advance, even 12-24 hours.
So, 36-hours prior to NC landfall, all indications were that that a major or at least category 2 hurricane was going to hit land. I Tweeted that the dry-air would infiltrate Irene and “poof” out the inner-core eventually, but even I was not expecting the large destructive effect of the dry air.”
I hope that you are not suggesting that each and every one of your theoretical considerations should be conveyed to the public.
You and your colleagues have to get together and decide what the facts of a hurricane are, at least the facts that are relevant to hurricane decisions by ordinary people. Once you have done that, then you can educate the public about the meaning of hurricane warnings.
In addition, being an intelligent citizen of American culture you know that it is a culture tortured by hype. You have a duty to fight the impulse to hype. Hype is evil even in the rare case that it accidentally saves lives. It is evil because it gives folks false beliefs about the world.
Finally, there is the question to all meteorologists: Why was Irene not downgraded to a tropical storm the moment it made landfall? At that moment, NYC subways could have resumed operation.
By the way, I do not mean to pick on you, Dr. Maue. I ask these questions of you because you are an expert and because you have some influence among your colleagues. But these questions are directed to all meteorologists. I do not expect you to answer them.
Most hurricanes seem to peter out before they reach New York City. I would think that the forecast for New York city would have been more accurate than the forecast for North Carolina. Gov Christie and Mayor Bloomberg did seem to hype the extreme danger they were facing and committed to forced evacuations and closures.
I would rather they discard their Global warming alarmists experts and sit in the kirk seat of their emergency operations center and communicate an accurate knowledge of the weather. if the leader isn’t in the EOC, he isn’t taking his roll that seriously.
I believe there is a solid history of hurricanes turning into tropical storms as they move north. I didn’t hear any talking heads mention it pre landfall.
Calling it a hurricane is just an alarmist dog whistle. CAGW believers are so bamboozled by their faith now that anything a little out of the ordinary is considered ‘proof’. The faithful see the hand of God in all things.