UPDATE: co-author admits it is a “horrible mistake”, see below – Anthony
From the you’ve got to be effing kidding me department.
First, I apologize to my readers for the headline. Read on and I think you’ll see it is justified. The headline is paraphrased from the article and the paper to give you the flavor. I have reproduced the passage used by the Guardian and provided a link to the full paper below.
First, the Guardian story: (h/t to reader “a jones”)
Now the paper, peer reviewed and published in Acta Astronautica titled:
Would Contact with Extraterrestrials Benefit or Harm Humanity? A Scenario Analysis
Seth D. Baum,1 Jacob D. Haqq-Misra,2 & Shawn D. Domagal-Goldman3
1. Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University.
2. Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University
3. NASA Planetary Science Division
Acta Astronautica, 2011, 68(11-12): 2114-2129
Here’s the relevant passage:
A preemptive strike [from extraterrestrials] would be particularly likely in the early phases of our expansion because a civilization may become increasingly difficult to destroy as it continues to expand. Humanity may just now be entering the period in which its rapid civilizational expansion could be detected by an ETI because our expansion is changing the composition of Earth’s atmosphere (e.g. via greenhouse gas emissions), which therefore changes the spectral signature of Earth. While it is difficult to estimate the likelihood of this scenario, it should at a minimum give us pause as we evaluate our expansive tendencies.
Words fail me. Truly this is science fiction, and not the good kind. I have a feature called “Climate Craziness of the Week”, this may be the all time winner.
Read the entire paper here (PDF)
================================================================
UPDATE: Former Economist sci/tech reporter Oliver Morton chips in with this in comments, it seems a “horrible mistake” was made by the co-author. Still no word on how this passes peer review.
http://paleblueblog.org/post/9110304050/some-important-points-of-clarification
So here’s the thing. This isn’t a “NASA report.” It’s not work funded by NASA, nor is it work supported by NASA in other ways. It was just a fun paper written by a few friends, one of whom happens to have a NASA affiliation.
…
But I do admit to making a horrible mistake. It was an honest one, and a naive one… but it was a mistake nonetheless. I should not have listed my affiliation as “NASA Headquarters.” I did so because that is my current academic affiliation. But when I did so I did not realize the full implications that has. I’m deeply sorry for that, but it was a mistake born our of carelessness and inexperience and nothing more. I will do what I can to rectify this, including distributing this post to the Guardian, Drudge, and NASA Watch. Please help me spread this post to the other places you may see the article inaccurately attributed to NASA.
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http://michaelfury.wordpress.com/2010/10/20/test-pattern/
All of this Climate Change caused by man made global warming has it’s roots firmly based in the realm of Augmented reality, so it’s not at all surprising that it has opened up a whole new form of science of ‘anything is possible’, the result of which is evident by the increase of even more fantastical papers and accepted theories, the motto of this new group of scientists should be “Standing on the shoulders of Idiots”.
It’s even more remarkable that a news publication can conclude from these fantastical papers and theories and show the world the embarrassing quality of their intellect and just how low the journalistic standards are at the Guardian by publishing such fantastic and all-to memorable quotes like->
“reducing our emissions might just save humanity from a pre-emptive alien attack, scientists claim”
And it has the most hilarious headlines that would make satirical publications such a the Onion or the Daily Mash envious,
“Aliens may destroy humanity to protect other civilisations, say scientists”
This headline must really confuse satirical writers!
Are they suggesting that human civilisation should tax it’s self out of technological existence and cower like a heard of frightened sheep in the face of this theoretical extraterrestrial threat based on what is clearly a scientific peer reviewed paper?
If this is the case, by the time our evil alien overlords get here to start an intergalactic war we should be able to fight them off with our giant Eco-friendly Trebuchets.
I was hoping for a light saber at least when going into interstellar battle. Isn’t Science fun!!
Just wanted to apologize Anthony for not scrolling far enough down this morning before submitting stories…as usual…you are way ahead of me. 🙂
Given that it’s NOT April Fools Day, I’ll guess that someone was smoking some really powerful stuff!!!
Not even Mad Magazine could come up with something as crazy as this!!!!
Waiting for PSU to protest being associated…still waiting…anything?
Yeah, the superior minds of the aliens might be able to understand that a slightly warmer planet is a good thing, leading them to assume that we are smarter than we really are. Then they’ll come here to congratulate us and meet us face to face. Then they’ll learn to read our language and discover how stupid we really are and blow us up. That makes sense to me. Not exactly the same line of reasoning as the above referenced “paper”, but the end result is the same: we’re doomed. 🙁
Ack Ack Ack… Ack Ack!!! Ack! Ack Ack?
Translation found in the deep thinking minds of journalistic and bureaucratic mutants.
{puts on moonbat cap}
Everyone gets all up in the “lightspeed” thing and how aliens would need to be home for dinner.
No one considers that a civilization far in advance of our own may not find life in space to be a problem. They may be physically and intellectually capable of multithousand year trips
and not care about going home at all. They could be close by and watching, having pulled in to the solar system long ago.
And the scenario missed is the one where it is we who are being groomed to fight with some other species who may be on their rapacious way here as we speak.
{end moonbat transmission}
Friends:
Shawn D. Domagal-Goldman was co-author of a peer reviewed, published paper that cited as his only affiliation “NASA Planetary Science Division”. That paper officially originates from Pennsylvania State University and from NASA.
The paper has been (justifiably) widely ridiculed, and Domagal-Goldman now circulates a statement saying;
“So here’s the deal, folks. Yes, I work at NASA. It’s also true that I work at NASA Headquarters. But I am not a civil servant… just a lowly postdoc. More importantly, this paper has nothing to do with my work there. I wasn’t funded for it, nor did I spend any of my time at work or any resources provided to me by NASA to participate in this effort.”
Sorry, but that will not wash.
The output of any person employed on research work is owned by the employer.
I spent over 3 decades conducting research at the Coal Research Establishment (CRE) for the UK’s National Coal Board (NCB). Anything I published in any form (e.g. a letter to a local newspaper) required approval by the NCB. And anything I published that stated my association with CRE or the NCB would have been an official publication of the NCB: how could it not be when I was employed by them to conduct research?
The paper published by Baum, Haqq-Misra & Domagal-Goldman IS an official publication deriving from Pennsylvania State University and from NASA. It will remain as output from NASA unless and until NASA takes disciplinary action against Shawn D. Domagal-Goldman and makes an official statement to repudiate the published paper.
The fact that the paper officially originates from NASA is not affected by whether or not the paper “has anything to do with [Domagal-Goldman’s] work at NASA”. The paper was published by a co-author who works at NASA, it stated the co-author works at NASA, and it did not state that the it and/or its contents did not derive from NASA.
Only NASA can declare that the paper does not originate from NASA and has not – at least, has not yet – made such a statement. Shawn D. Domagal-Goldman has no right to now claim the paper as his alone and not NASA’s: such a claim cannot be correct for any employed research worker (what if the next thing he thinks up – in what he claims is his own time – is a novel method for launching satelites?).
The daft paper of Baum, Haqq-Misra & Domagal-Goldman is a publication that officially originates from Pennsylvania State University and from NASA.
Richard
If the aliens do not like us what would they have made of the Carboniferous. CO2 really got out of control then.
Maybe the trilobites are supposed to be a warning to us.
War of the World – words sayeth all. Peer review? Will the ‘peers’ please step forward. Hidden in a dark corner is the undeclared war- Darwinism vs goliath ET/intelligent design.
Capt Kirk – warp 9, please. Any body of intelligence that travels at this speed ain’t going to sweat the small stuff CAGW.
“assume we’re a pack of dumb asses”, and
“tenticles hanging out” – oops my first cursory read – testicles
What will happen to the culture of Darwinism if this side of the debate is ‘beamed up (particle transporter)’?
Science transformation, polticial government vs independent critical thinking, one 4 yr presidential term or 60 yr/3 generational slow immersion. The first – ‘ah, I told you so’. And the second long-haul, most here will be back to earth-dirt before this happens, so who then will know? The third generation will say ‘this is the truth, and has always been’
“Please, Captain, not in front of the Klingons”. Dr. McCoy “The bureaucratic mentality is the only constant in the universe”
Calm down everyone. Listen! When the CAGWist fear promoter’s (see footnote below) alien invasion fleet arrives to destroy earth, all we need to do is show the aliens we have produced maple syrup. No alien would ever destroy a planet capable of making maple syrup. Right? : )
[ I loved that book . . . ]
Nyuck, nyuck, nyuck.
John
Footnote:
OK, I’ve done some further research on the ‘good (soon to be) Dr Seth Baum’ and he is what I can only describe as a ‘useful immature idiot’.
Have a look at the ‘views’ and ‘research’ pages on his personal web site and you’ll see why I’ve reached this conclusion.
http://sethbaum.com/views/
http://sethbaum.com/research/
He’s clearly intelligent and has an engineering/physics background. How/why then does a man of his obvious intellect and talent end up in the Geography Department of a second rate US academic institution like PSU?
He’s ‘useful’ IMO because he is obviously intelligent and has clear and obvious engineering/physics skills/talent yet he has ended up in a Geography Department. Are well paid/funded engineering/physics jobs that hard to come by in the US that the only way a gradute engineering/physics specialising in optics can find a job is to end up researching ‘global catastrophic risk’ in a Geography Department?
IMO he’s ‘immature’ because at one time (which he seems to be proud of) he was involved in ‘designing a robot system that would drop water balloons on innocent pedestrians as they walked by.’
And finally IMO he’s an ‘idiot’ because he’s written this ridiculous paper which does absolute nothing for his academic reputation.
Now funnily enough this all has a familar ring to it. Who else do I know who is a graduate engineer/physicsist who has ended up finding a job within a Geography Department and who on far too many occasions has demonstrated very immature behaviour and who has also published a number of ridiculously flawed/stupid papers (de-centred PCA and upside down proxies anyone?)?
Ah – of course this Mann! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/
From the TwiLight Zone: “To Serve Man…”
KevinUK – Geography dept tend to end up with a lot of spatial stats, remote sensing, and GIS work over here as opposed to the traditional economic demographic work. I can only guess he followed some remote sensing/GIS money trail.
One other thing. I’ve always held that there is a transmitter on the other side of the
Moon-accompanied by a giant billboard:”Warning do not land on the blue planet! insane
asylum. The Galactic council will not be responsible for any damage or death due
to unauthorized landings.”
Could explain several things…
Of course! It was the Greenhouse Gases (TM) all along.
That’s why the aliens will finally come and conquer earth.
Whew, luckily there’s already a hoax that will save us from this menace: carbon taxes!
The Nobel Prize for Economics winner, Paul Krugman, recommends an alien invasion to rescue the planet Earth from its economic doldrums.
Krugman should coordinate his theory with the Pennsylvania State University theory to achieve a scientific consensus on the need for a trillion dollar program to save the planet Earth from economic destruction/alien destruction by a proposiing a sustainable compromise.
I don’t know what has affected Krugman’s thinking, but a first thought about the PSU authors is that they are suffering a concussion from having been struck on the noggin by a Mann hockey stick.
Calling Dr. Huer!
Why would they bother we are all going to die from global warming anyway!
We are all doomed!
I find drinking beer regularlry has prevented aliens from invading Earth.
Wow, that’s pretty funny. I can easily see a report like that being created as a gag by some group of people with a quirky sense of humor. Was this really taken seriously by anyone?
Of course, the idea that ET, and I’ll assume that ETs exist, will be peaceful is also interesting. They could just as easily be bent on conquest/colonization.
This passage from the paper cracked me up.
“Another recommendation is that humanity should avoid giving off the appearance of being a
rapidly expansive civilization. If an ETI perceives humanity as such, then it may be inclined to
attempt a preemptive strike against us so as to prevent us from growing into a threat to the ETI or others in the galaxy. Similarly, ecosystem-valuing universalist ETI may observe humanity’s
ecological destructive tendencies and wipe humanity out in order to preserve the Earth system as a whole. These scenarios give us reason to limit our growth and reduce our impact on global
ecosystems. It would be particularly important for us to limit our emissions of greenhouse gases, since atmospheric composition can be observed from other planets. We acknowledge that the pursuit of emissions reductions and other ecological projects may have much stronger
justifications than those that derive from ETI encounter, but that does not render ETI encounter
scenarios insignificant or irrelevant.”
These greenie folks are more of a threat to civilization than little green men.
OK. Now it is official, people: they HAVE redefined what peer review is. /sarc
On a more serious note, it strikes me that one teensy premise of the paper is way off the mark: even if we accept that aliens exist, are aware of and interested in us and our planet, and capable of detecting miniscule fluctuations in CO2 at huge distances, even then it strikes as anthropocentric in the extreme to assume that aliens would share a highly evolved taxonomical understanding of and appreciation for the Earth’s biodiversity with what is effectively a minority of the indigenous human population.
I guess the aliens who live a few billion light years from us have recently noticed that the oxygen content of the atmosphere has gone from virtually zero to 21% thanks to the boom in green plants.
They may be sending spaceship loads of Roundup!
Scene: the War Room (no smoking or fighting)
“I’m sorry Mr President, but the aliens are about to land, we’ve tried nukes, fighters, no effect. Slim Whitman inflicted twenty percent casualties while the banjos and bagpipes have accounted for another twenty percent but we only have one weapon left.
Only you can authorise its use as it will destroy all intelligent life on the planet, one or two teenagers or those hard of hearing in deep bunkers might make it though.”
The Presidents voice shook as he spoke the fateful words,
“May God forgive us, Unleash the Beiber!”