UPDATE: co-author admits it is a “horrible mistake”, see below – Anthony
From the you’ve got to be effing kidding me department.
First, I apologize to my readers for the headline. Read on and I think you’ll see it is justified. The headline is paraphrased from the article and the paper to give you the flavor. I have reproduced the passage used by the Guardian and provided a link to the full paper below.
First, the Guardian story: (h/t to reader “a jones”)
Now the paper, peer reviewed and published in Acta Astronautica titled:
Would Contact with Extraterrestrials Benefit or Harm Humanity? A Scenario Analysis
Seth D. Baum,1 Jacob D. Haqq-Misra,2 & Shawn D. Domagal-Goldman3
1. Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University.
2. Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University
3. NASA Planetary Science Division
Acta Astronautica, 2011, 68(11-12): 2114-2129
Here’s the relevant passage:
A preemptive strike [from extraterrestrials] would be particularly likely in the early phases of our expansion because a civilization may become increasingly difficult to destroy as it continues to expand. Humanity may just now be entering the period in which its rapid civilizational expansion could be detected by an ETI because our expansion is changing the composition of Earth’s atmosphere (e.g. via greenhouse gas emissions), which therefore changes the spectral signature of Earth. While it is difficult to estimate the likelihood of this scenario, it should at a minimum give us pause as we evaluate our expansive tendencies.
Words fail me. Truly this is science fiction, and not the good kind. I have a feature called “Climate Craziness of the Week”, this may be the all time winner.
Read the entire paper here (PDF)
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UPDATE: Former Economist sci/tech reporter Oliver Morton chips in with this in comments, it seems a “horrible mistake” was made by the co-author. Still no word on how this passes peer review.
http://paleblueblog.org/post/9110304050/some-important-points-of-clarification
So here’s the thing. This isn’t a “NASA report.” It’s not work funded by NASA, nor is it work supported by NASA in other ways. It was just a fun paper written by a few friends, one of whom happens to have a NASA affiliation.
…
But I do admit to making a horrible mistake. It was an honest one, and a naive one… but it was a mistake nonetheless. I should not have listed my affiliation as “NASA Headquarters.” I did so because that is my current academic affiliation. But when I did so I did not realize the full implications that has. I’m deeply sorry for that, but it was a mistake born our of carelessness and inexperience and nothing more. I will do what I can to rectify this, including distributing this post to the Guardian, Drudge, and NASA Watch. Please help me spread this post to the other places you may see the article inaccurately attributed to NASA.
I would say that the increasing industrial waste levels would be a sign that we are NOT a threat. When we master industry without releasing large amounts of thermally active gases and particulate I believe we’ll be much more threatening.
Now let’s be serious folks. Wait until this paper has been peer-reviewed at The Journal of Irreproducible Results before criticising.
Drat. http://www.jir.com/
What are these people on?
Considering that human production of CO2 is only 3% of the total produced annually how could we pose a threat.
Did my tax dollars help pay the people who produced this claptrap? If so I’m contacting my senator.
I have said many times that the longer this AGW drivel continues to influence our political “leaders” then the more outlandish will be their claims. Having said that I think we have probably hit the zenith with this one.
You couldn’t make it up!!
This is Gandhi reversed isn’t it? First they think they’ve won, then they scorn you, then you laugh at them, then they’re done.
Besides, the onion has already done this one much better; the real cause of global warming is clearly a new solar system discovered about four feet off the ground;
“http://www.theonion.com/articles/new-solar-system-discovered-four-feet-from-earth,1094/”
DanDaly says:
August 18, 2011 at 5:59 pm
Actually, that was a cover story. It was actually destroyed deliberately under the instructions of Zaphod, who was coerced into it by his psychoanalyst since he was unable to pay his humongous bill (IIRC).
Mind you, that was probably a cover story for …. And so it goes on. May God bless and look after Douglas Adams for eternity!
Come on, everyone, you’re forgetting the New Scientific Principle…
“Peer review so it MUST be true!!!!”
It really is worse than we thought 🙁
Well, this beats dendromancy hands down, and from the home of Dendromantist in Chief, Holy Michael.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/dec/05/olympic-games-2012-alien-conspiracy-theory
Obvious ain’t it – part of the plot to stage a fake alien invasion at the 2012 Olympic Games in London by the new world order elite . The NASA and Penn connection for ‘credibility’, and of course, the Guardian in on the plot helping to provide sufficient background so pushing the NASA connection as if it’s an official report – it isn’t is it…?
Hmm. ET go home.
And take all the AGW scientists with you.
The dry run in 1984..
Space aliens have already taken over the earth. They have infiltrated the UN. The plan to reduce CO2 in the name of saving the planet is their plan to tip the earth into the next glaciation and wipe out humanity. Then they’ll warm the place back up and live here.
Now doesn’t that sound more reasonable than space aliens observing the earth’s climate from light years away and deciding to attack because we’re a threat to ourselves.
Never mind the vacuous nature of NASA, what about the void in the Grauniad.
The Grauniad used to pride itself on being the liberal academic’s broadsheet, and now it has turned into the National Enquirer. Says a lot for the UK intelligentsia in general and the Green movement in particular.
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>>Greg Bone says: August 18, 2011 at 6:50 pm
>>Just want to clarify a point on what is required to achieve the
>>speed of light. The sun accelerates several tons of matter every
>>second to the speed of light in the form of photons.
Errrrr … since photons are massless, how do you imagine that there are ‘several tons of them’?? Go and stand in the corner, Master Bone, and take this pointy hat with you. Big ‘D’ to the front, thank you.
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>>Greg Bone says: August 18, 2011 at 6:50 pm
>>Just want to clarify a point on what is required to achieve the
>>speed of light. The sun accelerates several tons of matter every
>>second to the speed of light in the form of photons.
Errrrr … since photons are massless, how do you imagine that there are ‘several tons of them’?? Go and stand in the corner, Master Bone, and take this pointy hat with you. Big ‘D’ to the front, thank you.
Better still, you could join the Grauniad as their science correspondent.
.
It’s more likely that the world’s military will kill us with climate tinkering. Studies should be done on the the impact of aluminum oxide on human health and climate. An aluminum shield around the earth may make high and low frequency communication systems work better but it is not good for the rest. Spraying this stuff in the atmosphere under the guise on engineering a solution for global warming has not been proven.
Sorry we will be late with the invasion and subsequent destruction of earth as our fleet were blinded by the light emitting from a certain house in the earth area of Belle Meade, Nashville and sadly careered into your moon !
Therefore we kindly request that a certain Al Gore turn his bloody lights off and we can get on with the job of annihilating your planet
Can we have your liver then?
So I guess the man-bear-pig attack failed?
NASA was once a respected science group.
Looks like the Drake Equation will need adjustment :
from N = R* fp ne fl fi fc L
to N = R* fp ne fl (fi-nAGW) fc L
(Although further research may show that nAGW is a constant, with a value of 1).
ROTFLMAO! You know this will probably evolve into something else:
To Serve PSU . . . several FOIA requests
Two links mentioned in earlier comments: Nasa Watch and PaleBlue blog have made it clear that NASA is not involved in this fiasco, although the fact that there was even some doubt *does* reflect on the current NASA and its direction. I was going to offer my opinion that this was a simple internal mis-communication where the NASA employee was told ‘Moslem outreach’ but took it as ‘Alien outreach’. Ah well.
Those comments from the authors at the above mentioned links do not address PSU however. They say they were just having fun. Perhaps, but did the taxpayers chip in at all? You guys who wrote this ‘paper’ better get on damage control or else you may singlehandedly be responsible for FOIA’s and a lot of aggravation for the school from the PA Attorney General and Congress, not to mention the public and their alumnus. Kinda ironic, a lefty newspaper blog (Guardian) fingers PSU and NASA, and the AGW cult suffers another blow! It’s like friendly fire. Almost feel sorry for them. Almost.
This is also gonna leave a mark because one other casualty will be the typical AGW cultist that throws around the: ‘Hey, we have thousands of peer reviewed papers backing our claims!’. Yep. So much for that cavalier statement. For example, the immediate response to that claim will be something along the lines of: ‘Peer reviewed papers huh? You mean like this one!’.
Justice. It’s all good. 🙂
If anybody has problems getting a science paper peer reviewed and published, then just stick this one in their face. This is one fine example that any paper will be accepted along as it links AGW to it. Scientific method doesn’t matter, science doesn’t matter, imagination and alarm does.
Imagination responce in progress.
“The planet has not been attacked by ET over recent decades of warming because detected that humans have had little do with it and also observed warming over the centuries”
“ET detected other planets in the solar system warming too from light years away so knew solar activity was part of it”
“ET behind humans backs rented a copy of independance day and despite concerned of slight warming of the planet, called off attacks because got scared what humans may do to unfriendly visitors.
I believe that the probability of an alien invasion is higher that the probability of any of these “scientists” getting another grant.
April Fools day comes late this year!
FD