ARCUS Sea Ice August forecast online

* Steve MosherFunny how everybody focuses on air temps.
http://www.oc.nps.edu/~stanton/fluxbuoy/deploy/buoy21_deltaT.html
its like people forget the heat capacity argument
Thanks for this Steve. Speaking as a rank amateur , can you tell me the significance of what we are looking at? cheers, G

RACookPE1978 says:
August 17, 2011 at 4:03 pm
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BOTH reflect equally the radiation at the actual angles found in the Arctic where the ice is found.
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This claim seems to be based on the “sea is perfectly flat” theory. I prefer the “sea has waves” theory.

Melt ponds that are deep enough to be counted as real melt, when these start to freeze over as the mean temps drop below 0c we may see an early bottoming out of the ice minimum followed by a speedy rise. Fresh water melt ponds will freeze faster than open ocean, it remains to be seen what proportion of the remaining polar sea ice is melt ponds and open ocean. From what I have seen on the satellite photos for this year there are more melt ponds than usual. By my estimate if mean temps continue to drop below freezing we will see a minimum in the range of 5.0-5.2, it all depends on what happens in the next two weeks.

LazyTeenager said on August 18, 2011 at 1:51 am:

RACookPE1978 says:
August 17, 2011 at 4:03 pm
———–
BOTH reflect equally the radiation at the actual angles found in the Arctic where the ice is found.
————
This claim seems to be based on the “sea is perfectly flat” theory. I prefer the “sea has waves” theory.

By your theory we’d have to recalculate the insolation amounts for the tropics as well. Since the angles of incidence will be increasing, the tropics will then be shown to be receiving less than the currently accepted values. Since the area of the tropics is far greater than that of the Arctic, or even the Arctic and Antarctic areas combined, safe bet the net result is the planet is receiving less total insolation than previously thought.
Congratulations! It may not be the total amount of Treberth’s “missing heat” but still you may have discovered where a significant chunk of it went. And since your theory results in the Earth receiving less net energy from the Sun, CAGW is now obviously less of a potential problem than previously thought as well. Thanks for the great news!

Mr Bateman, I have believed for a long time that the loss of Arctic ice is caused by the oceans dumping heat. The last few solar cycles were energetic and gave the oceans a boost, this heat is migratory and is being dissipated by the melting of ice and the open water losing heat to space.
This is a long lag system and the solar output at the moment is not optimal, this points to a period in the near future where a sudden drop in the temperature profile of the world may occur.
The melting of the ice for me means a future cooling not a warming,

Brian [August 17, 2011 at 11:25 am] says:
“It’s not going to be long until it’s gone folks. The future looks dim. Even The Weather Channel was talking about how parts of Fl could be under water by 2100. I feel for future generations.”

What no sarc tag? Oh that’s right, you really do believe this!
It’s not going to be long until it’s gone folks. :: How long? And until ‘what’ exactly is gone? And for how long will ‘it’ be gone? One or two weeks in August or September?
The future looks dim. :: What does dim look like, and what exactly looks dim? If you jack up the cost of energy and food I would say *that* looks dim, but somehow I doubt this is what you are talking about.
Even The Weather Channel was talking about how parts of Fl could be under water by 2100. :: Parts of Florida that are at sea level are under water when it rains. Lots of beach is under water at high tide. Perhaps you know of something not normally underwater that will soon always be underwater. Please specify this location.
And the Weather Channel? Puhlease! What a damn shame that it was destroyed by NBC and has been infiltrated now by the trolls at MSNBC …

“On July 6, 2008, NBC Universal, Bain Capital and Blackstone Group agreed to purchase the Weather Channel from Landmark Communications.[2] NBC Universal also owned NBC Weather Plus, a rival service which was carried by and featured content from its local affiliates; that service announced its discontinuation three months later. Subchannels carrying Weather Plus have moved to the Local AccuWeather Channel, kept the Weather Plus engine, or switched affiliations (e.g., to This TV or the Retro Television Network). Some have shut down entirely.
From November 2008 through February 2009, The Weather Channel terminated seven long-time on-camera meteorologists: Kristina Abernathy, Eboni Deon, Kristin Dodd, Rich Johnson, Cheryl Lemke, Mark Mancuso and Dave Schwartz. With the exception of Eboni Deon, all had been on the air for more than ten years. Three of them had been employed by the network for more than twenty years. In July, 2010, The Weather Channel terminated Bill Keneely, the last of the original on-camera meteorologists who aired on the network’s first broadcasts in 1982.
Inevitably, the merger of NBC on-air meteorologists began in May 2009. Todd Santos, formerly of NBC Weather Plus, first appeared on the network on the second day of the month. Al Roker of NBC’s Today show began a one-hour morning program with meteorologist Stephanie Abrams as co-host, later in the summer. However for New York-based forecasting operations (those utilized for MSNBC and CNBC forecasts, for instance), the former NBC Weather Plus forecasting, radar, and graphics systems remain in place, with banners changed to fit the Weather Channel graphics scheme.” [source 1=”<A” 2=”HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Weather_Channel">Wikipedia</A&gt;” language=”:”][/source]

I feel for future generations. :: Which ones? The future generations that will be in a slightly warmer cycle like 1985-2000-ish or those in a cooler cycle like the 1960’s and 1970’s? I myself do feel sympathy for those living in the cooler cycles especially because of the high cost they will face in heating during brutal winters (kinda like now), especially if people like you add more taxes to their bills. Heating in winter is not optional, it is life and death. Cooling in summer (e.g. air conditioning) *is* optional and humans survived for millennia without it, even at the equator!
Brian, it’s not too late to re-post your comment, this time using a sarc tag.
😉

From steven mosher on August 18, 2011 at 10:57 am

do you know what ERA40 data is?
do you accept the physics models used to create ERA40 data?

Did you miss the new post about ERA40 being tragically flawed?
Why would anyone accept those physics models as they currently stand?

RE: Data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer
Can it discern the difference between true open water and melt ponds?

Kevin O’Neill [August 23, 2011 at 6:21 am] says:
“Thus extent is a VERY conservative measurement of true amount of ice.”

Keep saying it and perhaps you and a few other alarmist bedwetters will believe this. Normal people realize that a windy day versus a non-windy day up there causes dramatically different outcomes in ice extent, thus blowing this metric out of the water as anything useful.
I mean honestly, really really honestly, if one day there is 100 km loss and the next day is 50 km and then 100 km, do you not see the problem? It is ice cube roulette, nothing more. If the extent was to finish at 6 million you and your fellow AGW cultists would move on to cooking up some other scare tactic.

“2011 is shaping up to be another 2007.”

You say that like it’s a bad thing! Do you not realize that 5 minutes after the ‘minimum’ is reached the growing begins? All the Arctic scare stories boil down to how much open water exists for a week or so in September! Like I said before, unless Earth gets whacked bad by an enormous object onto its side like Uranus, the axial tilt means it will remain cold up there forever.

“Uranus has an axial tilt of 97.77 degrees, so its axis of rotation is approximately parallel with the plane of the Solar System. This gives it seasonal changes completely unlike those of the other major planets. Other planets can be visualized to rotate like tilted spinning tops on the plane of the Solar System, while Uranus rotates more like a tilted rolling ball. Near the time of Uranian solstices, one pole faces the Sun continuously while the other pole faces away. Only a narrow strip around the equator experiences a rapid day-night cycle, but with the Sun very low over the horizon as in the Earth’s polar regions. At the other side of Uranus’s orbit the orientation of the poles towards the Sun is reversed. Each pole gets around 42 years of continuous sunlight, followed by 42 years of darkness.[49] Near the time of the equinoxes, the Sun faces the equator of Uranus giving a period of day-night cycles similar to those seen on most of the other planets. Uranus reached its most recent equinox on December 7, 2007.[50][51]
One result of this axis orientation is that, on average during the year, the polar regions of Uranus receive a greater energy input from the Sun than its equatorial regions. Nevertheless, Uranus is hotter at its equator than at its poles. The underlying mechanism which causes this is unknown. The reason for Uranus’s unusual axial tilt is also not known with certainty, but the usual speculation is that during the formation of the Solar System, an Earth sized protoplanet collided with Uranus, causing the skewed orientation.[52] Uranus’s south pole was pointed almost directly at the Sun at the time of Voyager 2’s flyby in 1986. The labeling of this pole as “south” uses the definition currently endorsed by the International Astronomical Union, namely that the north pole of a planet or satellite shall be the pole which points above the invariable plane of the Solar System, regardless of the direction the planet is spinning.[53][54] A different convention is sometimes used, in which a body’s north and south poles are defined according to the right-hand rule in relation to the direction of rotation.[55] In terms of this latter coordinate system it was Uranus’s north pole which was in sunlight in 1986.”

_Wiki_