
There is quite a bit of buzz surrounding a talk and pending paper from Prof. Murry Salby the Chair of Climate, of Macquarie University. Aussie Jo Nova has excellent commentary, as has Andrew Bolt in his blog. I’m sure others will weigh in soon.
In a nutshell, the issue is rather simple, yet powerful. Salby is arguing that atmospheric CO2 increase that we observe is a product of temperature increase, and not the other way around, meaning it is a product of natural variation. This goes back to the 800 year lead/lag issue related to the paleo temperature and CO2 graphs Al Gore presented in his movie an An Inconvenient Truth, Jo Nova writes:
Over the last two years he has been looking at C12 and C13 ratios and CO2 levels around the world, and has come to the conclusion that man-made emissions have only a small effect on global CO2 levels. It’s not just that man-made emissions don’t control the climate, they don’t even control global CO2 levels.
Salby is no climatic lightweight, which makes this all the more powerful. He has a strong list of publications here. The abstract for his talk is here and also reprinted below.
PROFESSOR MURRY SALBY
Chair of Climate, Macquarie University
Atmospheric Science, Climate Change and Carbon – Some Facts
Carbon dioxide is emitted by human activities as well as a host of natural processes. The satellite record, in concert with instrumental observations, is now long enough to have collected a population of climate perturbations, wherein the Earth-atmosphere system was disturbed from equilibrium. Introduced naturally, those perturbations reveal that net global emission of CO2 (combined from all sources, human and natural) is controlled by properties of the general circulation – properties internal to the climate system that regulate emission from natural sources. The strong dependence on internal properties indicates that emission of CO2 from natural sources, which accounts for 96 per cent of its overall emission, plays a major role in observed changes of CO2. Independent of human emission, this contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide is only marginally predictable and not controllable.
Professor Murry Salby holds the Climate Chair at Macquarie University and has had a lengthy career as a world-recognised researcher and academic in the field of Atmospheric Physics. He has held positions at leading research institutions, including the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Princeton University, and the University of Colorado, with invited professorships at universities in Europe and Asia. At Macquarie University, Professor Salby uses satellite data and supercomputing to explore issues surrounding changes of global climate and climate variability over Australia. Professor Salby is the author of Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics, and Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate due out in 2011. Professor Salby’s latest research makes a timely and highly-relevant contribution to the current discourse on climate.
Salby’s talk was given in June at the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysic meeting in Melbourne Australia. He indicates that a journal paper is in press, with an expectation of publication a few months out. He also hints that some of the results will be in his book Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate which is supposed to be available Sept 30th.
The podcast for his talk“Global Emission of Carbon Dioxide: The Contribution from Natural Sources” is here (MP3 audio format). The podcast length is an hour, split between his formal presentation ~ 30 minutes, and Q&A for the remaining time.
Andrew Bolt says in his Herald Sun blog:
Salby’s argument is that the usual evidence given for the rise in CO2 being man-made is mistaken. It’s usually taken to be the fact that as carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere increase, the 1 per cent of CO2 that’s the heavier carbon isotope ratio c13 declines in proportion. Plants, which produced our coal and oil, prefer the lighter c12 isotope. Hence, it must be our gasses that caused this relative decline.
But that conclusion holds true only if there are no other sources of c12 increases which are not human caused. Salby says there are – the huge increases in carbon dioxide concentrations caused by such things as spells of warming and El Ninos, which cause concentration levels to increase independently of human emissions. He suggests that its warmth which tends to produce more CO2, rather than vice versa – which, incidentally is the story of the past recoveries from ice ages.
Dr. Judith Curry has some strong words of support, and of caution:
I just finished listening to Murry Salby’s podcast on Climate Change and Carbon. Wow.
If Salby’s analysis holds up, this could revolutionize AGW science. Salby and I were both at the University of Colorado-Boulder in the 1990′s, but I don’t know him well personally. He is the author of a popular introductory graduate text Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics. He is an excellent lecturer and teacher, which comes across in his podcast. He has the reputation of a thorough and careful researcher. While all this is frustratingly preliminary without publication, slides, etc., it is sufficiently important that we should start talking about these issues. I’ll close with this text from Bolt’s article:
He said he had an “involuntary gag reflex” whenever someone said the “science was settled”.
“Anyone who thinks the science of this complex thing is settled is in Fantasia.”
Dr Roy Spencer has suspected something similar, See Atmospheric CO2 Increases: Could the Ocean, Rather Than Mankind, Be the Reason? plus part 2 Spencer Part2: More CO2 Peculiarities – The C13/C12 Isotope Ratio both guest posts at WUWT in 2008. Both of these are well worth your time to re-read as a primer for what will surely be a (ahem) hotly contested issue.
I’m pretty sure Australian bloggers John Cook at Skeptical Science and Tim Lambert at Deltoid are having conniption fits right about now. And, I’m betting that soon, the usual smears of “denier” will be applied to Dr. Salby by those two clowns, followed by the other usual suspects.
Smears of denial and catcalls aside, if it holds up, it may be the Emily Litella moment for climate science and CO2 – “Never mind…”
Bart says:
August 13, 2011 at 10:55 am
This is gibberish. The sink capacity is quite elastic. It does not penalize the natural CO2 sequestration in order to sequester the human CO2, it expands to accommodate it.
The sink capacity isn’t elastic enough to remove the extra CO2 which is currently in the atmosphere at any high speed. The current 100 ppmv (200 GtC extra) extra removes only 4 GtC extra CO2 out of the atmosphere per year. That is because the increase in growth rate of vegetation is only average 50% if the atmospheric CO2 doubles. In ideal circumstances, which seldom exist in nature. And the other sinks, the deep oceans, have a limited exchange with the atmosphere. Thus any additional CO2 above the real sink capacity of nature leads to an increase in the atmosphere. No matter if that is directly or by occupation of sink capacity.
That is what is observed, no theoretical considerations can change that.
George says:
August 13, 2011 at 4:54 am
You probably mean that “the total of bulk matter must be accounted for”. There are several conservation laws, however the conservation of mass is not amongst them.
Indeed it is a question of conservation of matter, not mass, especialy as in this case CO2 is exchanged with the oceans and forms bicarbonates and carbonates and in vegetation where it is used to build a lot of chemicals. Therefore it is more relevant to use GtC as unit, as that must be conserved over all flows and reservoirs, no matter the form it is build in.
Ferdinand Engelbeen says:
August 13, 2011 at 12:08 pm
Myrrh says:
August 13, 2011 at 4:52 am
Myrrh – “Carbon Dioxide is heavier than air.”
Yes, so what? Does that mean that every molecule of CO2, once mixed in the atmosphere, is rapidely falling down again?
Yes! That’s exactly what it means. Just as lighter than air means that every molecule will rapidly rise up through air. Every molecule of methane will rise up through air, but more importantly here, every molecule of water vapour – lighter than air water vapour is constantly evaporating from water, heat speeds this up and is how we get rain as the warm water vapour rises to condense out in the colder higher air – which is where it picks up carbon dioxide, all rain is carbonic acid – and is in this Water Cycle that the Earth is cooled to the average temp we have, without it the Earth would be 67°C think deserts..
When larger amounts of carbon dioxide are produced anywhere it can be a great hazard, because it displaces the lighter oxygen and nitrogen molecules – a danger in brewing beer, and especially a danger around volcanic activity where it flows (gases are fluids) into hollows – displacing oxygen, carbon dioxide suffocates. Read up on Lake Nyos in the Cameroons, the explosion sent it high in the air but it rapidly sank and flowed down the slopes suffocating people in the villages around the crater trapped in the thick layer displacing the lighter oxygen – it is one and a half times heavier than air, therefore it will sink rapidly and layer if in large enough quantities. Some who had their heads above the layer boundary survived, while those sleeping nearer the ground, died. Here: http://www.geology.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/Nyos.html
From which: “The CO2-rich cloud was expelled rapidly from the southern floor of Lake Nyos. It rose as a jet with a speed of about 100 km per hour. The cloud quickly enveloped houses within the crater that were 120 meters above the shoreline of the lake. Because CO2 is about 1.5 times the density of air, the gaseous mass hugged the ground surface and descended down valleys along the north side of the crater. The deadly cloud was about 50 meters thick and it advanced downslope at a rate of 20 to 50 km per hour. This deadly mist persisted in a concentrated form over a distance of 23 km, bringing sudden death to the villages of Nyos, Kam, Cha, and Subum.”
That’s a heck of a speed travelling down because it’s heavier than air. Anyone know about gas speeds relative to their weight in air?
Of course not, one finds more or less the same ratio high up to the stratosphere. Only 40 years of lack of wind stirring in an ice core shows a 1% enriching at the bottom, due to gravity.
Due to gravity is weight. How did it get to the stratosphere? Volcanic eruptions, planes? The “same ratio” is myth, that’s what the AIRS concluded. That is was “lumpy” and not at all well-mixed.
Myrrh: “AIRS discovered much too their consternation, this makes CO2 levels lumpy, not well-mixed”
Please look at the scale of AIRS. Well mixed doesn’t mean that everywhere at the same moment all levels are equal. That is only the case if there were no sources and sinks at work. .
Read their conclusions – it was the AIRS which found it was lumpy! The hype still is that CO2 is well-mixed and can’t be unmixed, the same proportions everywhere – that’s how they get the claim that it “accumulates” in the atmosphere, it can’t accumulate because it’s heavier than air.. Stop moving the bloody goalposts. Of course average means average and doesn’t mean it’s the same levels everywhere, ten inches of rainfall a year doesn’t mean rain falls ten inches every day.. (this is the same scenario as the residence time – IPCC actual figures hidden in the bulk of the reports against the spiel of accumulating for hundreds and thousands of years in the atmosphere – see my post above: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/05/the-emily-litella-moment-for-climate-science-and-co2/#comment-714003 Their conclusion was that it is lumpy and not well-mixed and they need to understand winds better..
CO2 needs 1-2 years to reach the South Pole, as most human sources are in the NH.
Well, here’s the thing. How exactly does it do this (apart from the fact that it is continually sinking to the ground and coming down in the rain when it is not being acted on by other work such as wind)?
Know any weathermen? S’far as I know, winds stick to their own hemisphere except for a bit of mixing at the equator and most winds are westerlies or easterlies. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Map_prevailing_winds_on_earth.png
And in the global circulation, the winds come from the poles – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Earth_Global_Circulation.jpg
“Polar easterlies Main article: Polar easterlies
The polar easterlies, also known as Polar Hadley cells, are dry, cold prevailing winds that blow from the high-pressure areas of the polar highs at the north and south poles towards the low-pressure areas within the Westerlies at high latitudes. Unlike the Westerlies, these prevailing winds blow from the east to the west, and are often weak and irregular.[41] Because of the low sun angle, cold air builds up and subsides at the pole creating surface high-pressure areas, forcing an equatorward outflow of air;[42] that outflow is deflected eastward by the Coriolis effect.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind
My bold. So what happened when the wind stopped blowing for 40 years? The local produced CO2 didn’t move away from the pole, volcanic, and formed your 1% enriched layer in the ice core..?
Myrrh: “The Beck and stomata data are much more sensible to CO2 levels, production is mostly local. The Mauna Loa data is suspect because of this.”
Many of the historical data and stomata data are suspect, because taken nearby huge sources and sinks, not well mixed and highly variable even over a day. Mauna Loa and 70 other stations, airplane and seaship measurements show very little variability and represent the bulk (95%) of the atmosphere.
Sigh, they show local production, precisely, because, carbon dioxide, doesn’t travel easily. Carbon dioxide is heavier than air, it does not rise readily in air. It likes to be where plants can eat it. Stomata are on the underside of leaves because the bulk of carbon dioxide is not in the air where plants don’t live, but at ground level where it will be moved by local winds and warmth, quickly dropping back to start the cycle again, by its own weight and in readily mixing with any water in its local air, rain, dew. Mauna Loa is a joke, as are some of the other stations, they decide when they stop measuring the carbon dioxide falling to the ground from the huge amount of locally produced in the ongoing volcanic activity and thousands of earthquakes a year in the warm seas around the great hot spot creating the islands, and the increased plane traffic day and night – while sitting on the worlds largest active volcano.. What possible ‘well-mixed background CO2’ can they be measuring? You can tell just from the Keeling curve they keep producing that it bears no relation to anything except their agenda – read how they make the choice for cut-off point, they arbitrarily decide when ‘volcanic’ stops…
Myrrh “The Antarctic cores do not show the responses to the LIA and MWP and others which Greenland does.”
Depends of the resolution. The medium resolution (40 years) Law Dome ice core shows the difference between the MWP and LIA: 6 ppmv less CO2 for about 0.8 degr.C cooling:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/law_dome_1000yr.jpg
Well, I was thinking of the WUWT discussions on this a little while ago – the Greenland cores show bigger differences and unambiguous relation to the great up and down temps of these periods, as I recall, my question is why the difference? Because more in the thick of life producing CO2 in the land masses around Greenland and, in the wind system?
Wasn’t it Law Dome where they altered the time frame because they couldn’t get one to agree with other cores? Vague memory of something like that.
Looking at your diagram. Doesn’t it look strange to you? Is there really that much more CO2 there now compared with the MIA? And of course, my question here – where does it come from?
The ice core data from Greenland had CO2 levels higher than 320 ppmv well before the industrial age and pre-industrial ice core from Byrd Antarctica, (Neftel et al in 1982) showed maximum values above 400 ppmv. These were covienently not used or high data points removed with the intention of supporting the AGW movement later. This then leads to incorrect conclusions claiming that the ocean using ice cores has only shown 8ppmv per 1c temperature rise. When in fact these ice cores did show larger CO2 ppmv values in Greenland and Byrd Antarctica for example. Based on especially these original cores before ignoring or emitting high values, it could be between 40 and 80 ppmv CO2 per 1c. This is down too no different ice cores show the same CO2 data results. Thats why the amended and cherry picked data ice core set which shows no higher than 290 ppmv should be treated with significant caution.
Ferdinand Engelbeen says:
August 13, 2011 at 12:13 pm
“They didn’t calibrate their calculated pCO2 to the ice core records.”
What part of “Presently the reason for this discrepancy remains unresolved. However, it is clear that the use of empirical calibration curves…” did you not understand?
Ferdinand Engelbeen says:
August 13, 2011 at 12:31 pm
“The sink capacity isn’t elastic enough to remove the extra CO2 which is currently in the atmosphere at any high speed.”
This is not a statement of fact, but of what you wish to be true.
“The current 100 ppmv (200 GtC extra) extra removes only 4 GtC extra CO2 out of the atmosphere per year. That is because the increase in growth rate of vegetation is only average 50% if the atmospheric CO2 doubles.”
No, this betrays a lack of understanding of how influx is partitioned between the oceans and atmosphere.
Why in the world am I arguing such trifling silliness? You are so out of the ballpark, you are not even in the same city.
No, Ferdinand… you just do not understand feedback systems. Case closed.
I wish to state explicitly that my lack of response or reference to “Myrrh” should not be construed as support for anything he is arguing. If you wish to argue with Myrrh, you are arguing with Myrrh, not with me.
Bart says:
August 13, 2011 at 5:40 pm
“They didn’t calibrate their calculated pCO2 to the ice core records.”
What part of “Presently the reason for this discrepancy remains unresolved. However, it is clear that the use of empirical calibration curves…” did you not understand?
If you omit relevant information, then you can prove anything you want. That is the same tactic Greenpeace often uses. The previous sentences which you didn’t copy simply show that the “empirical calibration curves” have nothing to do with ice cores, but with the calibration of boron isotopes with current day pH and thus with current day pCO2:
Empirical calibration with live cultured planctic foramins and corals has shown that the isotopic composition of biogenic carbonates falls close to the isotopic composition of borates in seawater (5-8), although the empirical d11Bcarbonate/pH relationship is not as steep as predicted by the isotopic fractionation between borate and boric acid in seawater (3). Presently the reason for this discrepancy remains unresolved…
What part of “Empirical d11B/pH… isotopic fractionation… in seawater” did you not understand?
They compared their calculated d11B/pH from live cultures to the real d11B/pH in seawater. Not to any ice core.
This is not a statement of fact, but of what you wish to be true.
No, this betrays a lack of understanding of how influx is partitioned between the oceans and atmosphere.
Whatever the underlying processes involved, the outflux to oceans and vegetation follows the increase in the atmosphere at an exact linear rate. That means that the exchange flows are limited in flexibility and that the pCO2 difference between atmosphere and oceans (and vegetation alveoles) is the main driving force.
You are much better in theoretical considerations, but I have a lot of experience with real life processes…
Myrrh says:
August 13, 2011 at 3:52 pm
When larger amounts of carbon dioxide are produced anywhere it can be a great hazard
Completely right for huge quantities of CO2 released at once. But when the wind blows, the CO2 molecules are dispersed in air and remain there, as long as there is turbulence and the CO2 is not catched by a tree or the oceans. Lookup “Brownian motion” for an explanation. Even much heavier particles remain in the air, as long as there is turbulence.
Due to gravity is weight. How did it get to the stratosphere? Volcanic eruptions, planes?
To show a difference of 1% in firn, one need 40 years of no wind stirring at all to obtain that difference. Something that doesn’t happen in the above ground air anywhere…
CO2 reaches the stratosphere simply by air flows: once mixed, it stays mixed and follows the air flows. At the equator up to deep in the stratosphere, but in general everywhere the wind blows.
The CO2 levels up to 12 km follow the CO2 levels near ground even for seasonal changes, with some delay:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/seasonal_height.jpg
Read their conclusions – it was the AIRS which found it was lumpy!
The scale of AIRS is +/- 3 ppmv. That is less than +/-1% of the level. Thus indeed CO2 levels are lumpy on monthly averages within 2% of the real level. Big deal. Still well mixed on a period of 1-2 years.
How exactly does it do this?
Wind does blow everywhere, including at the poles. I don’ think that there is any place on earth where the wind doesn’t blow during 40 years. Only when trapped in firn, gravity allows minute fractionation over many years (where the CO2 measurements are corrected for, based on 15N/14N isotopic fractionation). Even if the wind at Antarctica (and the Arctic) at ground level blows away from the poles, what blows away must be compensated by air coming in from other latitudes at height. That is the case for all air flow cells: Ferrel cells near the poles, Hadley cells near the equator are (more or less) closed loop cells, but allow mixing in from other air.
The ITCZ forms a barrier in exchanges of air (and dust and CO2) between the hemispheres, but still 10% per year of air mass exchange occurs between the hemispheres.
You can tell just from the Keeling curve they keep producing that it bears no relation to anything except their agenda.
Thus hundreds of people from different (even competing) labs from different organisations of different countries all work together to produce CO2 curves just out of their mind, without anyone (even retired) to protest against such a manipulation? Thus even the satellite data are manipulated in their overall trend? Please show me some proof of such a conspiracy, before you accuse a lot of people (normally called slander, if without proof).
the Greenland cores show bigger differences and unambiguous relation to the great up and down temps of these periods, as I recall, my question is why the difference?
The Greenland ice core is unreliable for CO2 levels: nearby Iceland volcanoes frequently emit acidic dust. Combined with sea salt (carbonates) that gives in situ higher CO2 levels, nothing to do with the real historic CO2 levels.
Wasn’t it Law Dome where they altered the time frame because they couldn’t get one to agree with other cores? Vague memory of something like that.
That was a stupid error from Jaworowski (for the Siple Dome ice core): he used the wrong column (age of the ice i.s.o. gas age) in the tabel of Neftel, where both columns were adjacent in the same tabel. CO2 is measured in the gas phase, not in the ice layer…
Is there really that much more CO2 there now compared with the MIA? And of course, my question here – where does it come from?.
Humans emitted about twice the quantity of CO2 which is measured as increase in the atmosphere. Maybe that is some clue of why the sudden increase over the past 160 years…
Matt G says:
August 13, 2011 at 4:57 pm
These were covienently not used or high data points removed with the intention of supporting the AGW movement later.
As said to Myrhh before: Greenland CO2 is not reliable due to acidic dust from Icelandic volcanoes. Extreme values in the Neftel Byrd station ice core were found where also drilling fluid was found in the ice (via cracks). Several measurements over the same ice layers did give a wide range of values, including the similar values in line with samples before and later in depth/time. Normally, one should delete the whole range, as the sample was clearly contaminated and doesn’t show the real values of CO2 of that period, except the lowest values. Neftel decided to keep the lowest values. That is all.
Of course if one is interested in discrediting the ice cores as valid information of ancient atmospheres, this is an ideal case…
But see further my take of Jaworowski, who is behind all these stories:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/jaworowski.html
To avoid any misunderstanding:
They compared their calculated d11B/pH from live cultures to the real d11B/pH in seawater. Not to any ice core.
Should be:
They calibrated their calculated d11B/pH from live cultures to today’s pCO2 and compared that to the known d11B/pH in seawater. Despite a discrepancy in slope, the calculated pCO2 levels from the empiric data from live cultures matches the ice core data.
Thus they didn’t calibrate against the isotopic ratio in seawater, nor against ice cores, they only compared the experimental findings with both.
Ferdinand Engelbeen says:
August 14, 2011 at 12:53 am
“…the outflux to oceans and vegetation follows the increase in the atmosphere at an exact linear rate. That means that the exchange flows are limited in flexibility…”
Again, this is not a statement of fact, but of what you wish to be true.
“…the “empirical calibration curves” have nothing to do with ice cores…”
They have a curve which is empirically derived. That curve necessarily has significant uncertainty in it – there is not a unique fit as it is unmoored from physical principles. They chose the fit which gives them replication of the Vostok ice core. The Vostok ice core is thereby used for validation. Ergo, the result is highly correlated with, essentially a fit to and replication of, the Vostok ice core.
And, so, I maintain a reasonable wariness regarding the proxy reconstructions. However, I do wish to point out that, while I believe it is likely that the ice core CO2 data record is unreliable, the validity of fast CO2 response does not hinge on the validity of the ice core data. It merely would require a more complicated than mere low pass response. That is, a response in which very fast and very slow inputs are attenuated, but in which medium rate processes are passed through.
I have been fiddling with this idea and, it turns out that it is very easy to create such a “bandpass” response in a coupled land-ocean-atmospheric model. Indeed, it is difficult not to have some finite band of relative amplification if the parameters of the system are essentially a random draw from a hat. I may post more on this later here or in a future thread when I have had time to work out all the implications.
Ferdinand Engelbeen says:
August 14, 2011 at 1:57 am
Completely right for huge quantities of CO2 released at once. But when the wind blows, the CO2 molecules are dispersed in air and remain there, as long as there is turbulence and the CO2 is not catched by a tree or the oceans. Lookup “Brownian motion” for an explanation. Even much heavier particles remain in the air, as long as there is turbulence.
Thank you Ferdinand, I looked up Brownian motion the first time I was given this… It’s bull. Why don’t you look it up? To help you get started see my post above http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/05/the-emily-litella-moment-for-climate-science-and-co2/#comment-715670 I’m sorry, but you’ve taken an AGWScience meme for granted which is nonsense in real physics. Brownian motion is nanoscale movement of microscopic particles in fluids, oxygen, nitrogen and carbon dioxide are gases, gases are fluids, fluids in which nanoscale movements of particles happen.
Now, the air above you and surrounding you is a very heavy sea of the fluid gas air made up of fluid gases, there’s a ton of it pressing down on your shoulders this very minute. Within this fluid gas there are molecules of fluid gas with different weights relative to each other. Lighter molecules of fluid gases such as water vapour and methane rise through this gaseous ocean around you, heavier molecules of fluid gases such as carbon dioxide sink in this ocean. Wind is a volume of this fluid gas air on the move. The atmosphere around you is not empty space, it has volume, real gases have volume.. If it was empty space you would hear no sound. Real gases can be compressed, you hear sound because the fluid air around you can be compressed. Because these fluid gas molecules comprising air have volume and weight, they are also pressing on each other, their range of movement is restricted. They do not travel at great speeds across a room, because the volume of the fluid gas air around them holds them back. Please take a few minutes to read through this page, it’s not long, http://www.mediacollege.com/audio/01/sound-waves.html Note how the molecules are able to vibrate because they have volumes of molecules around them against which to vibrate. Sound does not send the molecules flying across the room.. When they stop vibrating they come back to ‘rest’, when the energy of the sound has been passed along.
Wind is volumes of air on the move – the carbon dioxide is not “dispersed in air”, it moves with the volume of air it is in.. Wind isn’t a wooden spoon stirring molecules around in empty space, it is fluid volumes of molecules on the move in the gaseous volume around us. So, “the CO2 molecules are dispersed in air and remain there as long as there is turbulence and the CO2 is not catched by a tree or the oceans.” doesn’t make any sense because you miss out that because they’re heavier than air unless there is enough energy to counteract their weight, wind, heat, they will sink. They’re always in air, but heavier than air so when the volume of air they are in stops moving, they will sink displacing the lighter molecules of oxygen and nitrogen.. that’s how they get to the ocean, when they’re not joining with water and forming carbonic acid, which is rain.
This is what the AIRS data confirmed for themselves, that carbon dioxide is not ‘well-mixed’ (Brownian motion or ideal gas scenario of the AGWScience fiction memes), is not ‘the same ratio everywhere’, ‘same proportion’, ‘homogeneous’ – they found it was lumpy and not well-mixed. It might well travel in the volume of air it is in when it is windy, staying in the lumpy form, but will sink when it stops. It is not always windy.
It is not well-mixed because it is, as above, and so if in the wind which is a volume of air it is in on the move where does it go?
Now, most winds are local. It won’t go very far. Is it always windy where you are? Are you always in turbulence? Look at the trees around you, are they moving at the top, the middle, at the ground?
What do you think they’re saying here? A decade nearly gone and they’re still not releasing the data for the upper and lower troposphere…
The big wind systems do not cross hemispheres. What little mixing there is at the boundary layer get’s sucked into the local systems at the equator. http://www.pilotfriend.com/av_weather/meteo/prv_wnd.htm
Humans emitted about twice the quantity of CO2 which is measured as increase in the atmosphere. Maybe that is some clue of why the sudden increase over the past 160 years…
Maybe it makes sense to you, not me. It began rising way before there was any noticeable amount of industrial output from the middle of the 20th century, looks to me as if there’s some sort of flattening effect in older ice.
Matt G. – Thank you.
Ferdinand – As said to Myrhh before: Greenland CO2 is not reliable due to acidic dust from Icelandic volcanoes. Extreme values in the Neftel Byrd station ice core were found where also drilling fluid was found in the ice (via cracks). Several measurements over the same ice layers did give a wide range of values, including the similar values in line with samples before and later in depth/time. Normally, one should delete the whole range, as the sample was clearly contaminated and doesn’t show the real values of CO2 of that period, except the lowest values. Neftel decided to keep the lowest values. That is all.
Remind me, where did you say this to me before?
How does this compare with sulphuric acid levels in Antarctica? And how does this affect carbon dioxide levels?
WINDY BITS
…Things to watch for in AGWScience fiction memes
Hmm, a prominent meteorologist who doesn’t know that rain is the carbon dioxide washing aerosols out of the lower atmosphere in a matter of weeks…?
It’s when you get down to the basics that AGWScience fiction beomes so amusingly surreal.
A bit of trivia:
Myrrh says:
August 14, 2011 at 4:14 pm
Myrrh,
If Brownian motion works for – relative heavy – particles in a fluid, please give me a reason why it would not work for a molecule of CO2 in a fluid, surrounded by 300 times more molecules of other gases. Have you ever put a few drops of a perfume on a floor and didn’t you smell the scent a few minutes later at the other side of the room, even at 1.5 meters height or wherever your nose is? That is Brownian motion at work, even for scent molecules which are many times heavier than air.
I have been working in a chlorine factory. To protect workers and the neighbourhood, a network of chlorine monitors was installed, including a program to calculate the spread of any leak. The latter was expected to be thinned with between the 2nd and 3rd power of the distance. If it was only dispersed over the ground, it would be the 2nd power only, but as it is dispersed also in height, the 3rd power is involved, be it not complete. Chlorine is a lot heavier than CO2 (m.w. 71 vs. 44).
Further, have a look at the data: CO2 levels at 3,400 meter at Mauna Loa exactly follows the Cape Kumukahi CO2 levels at ground level in Hawaii, see the “carbon tracker” overview:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/
And for yearly averages, all stations, from ground level in the far North (Barrow, Alaska) to Mauna Loa at 3,400 m high to the SH stations at ground level (Samoa) to the South Pole at 3,000 m high follow each other with a maximum lag of a few years, over 50 years now since the measurements started at the South Pole (which was before Mauna Moa, but has a gap of a few years, later on):
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/co2_trends.jpg
in detail for the period 1995-2004:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/co2_trends_1995_2004.jpg
Thus Mauna Loa at 3,400 m lags Barrow at sealevel with some 9 months, while the South Pole lags Barrow with about 2 years.
The increase in the past 50+ years in all stations is over 80 ppmv. Compare that to the variability discovered by the AIRS satellite: +/- 3 ppmv at mid troposphere (about 5,000 m. Hey, how comes CO2 that high at such a high ppmv level?). The variability in the mid-troposphere is of academic interest, but completely irrelevant for the global increase of CO2 over the years and its long term distribution over the globe…
Myrrh says:
August 14, 2011 at 5:45 pm
Remind me, where did you say this to me before?
August 14, 2011 at 1:57 am, but it is only about the first sentence (reliability of CO2 levels in the Greenland ice cores)
How does this compare with sulphuric acid levels in Antarctica? And how does this affect carbon dioxide levels?
Depends of the amount of seasalt/dust in the ice core. Coastal ice cores of Antarctica (Siple Dome, Law Dome) receive far more seasalt/dust than the far inland, high altitude ice cores (Vostok, Dome C). But when one compares CO2 levels in the different ice cores for overlapping periods in time, these differ not more than 5 ppmv from each other.
Hmm, a prominent meteorologist who doesn’t know that rain is the carbon dioxide washing aerosols out of the lower atmosphere in a matter of weeks…?
I thought that rain was mainly composed of water, but I may be wrong on this point…
Ferdinand Engelbeen says:
August 15, 2011 at 1:25 pm
Myrrh says:
August 14, 2011 at 4:14 pm
If Brownian motion works for – relative heavy – particles in a fluid, please give me a reason why it would not work for a molecule of CO2 in a fluid, surrounded by 300 times more molecules of other gases. Have you ever put a few drops of a perfume on a floor and didn’t you smell the scent a few minutes later at the other side of the room, even at 1.5 meters height or wherever your nose is? That is Brownian motion at work, even for scent molecules which are many times heavier than air.,
CO2 is the fluid, it’s part of the gaseous atmosphere. Er, The other fluids in the atmosphere are lighter than CO2 – how are they going to bounce it around? The technical description is that it displaces air, the basic oxygen and nitrogen which are around the same weight. It’s dramatically noticeable when in large amounts, but that’s because each molecules has that effect in air. This is a well understood effect, fires can be put out with extinguishers of CO2.
I said something on ‘scent in air’ above: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/05/the-emily-litella-moment-for-climate-science-and-co2/#comment-715670
I’ll put in the extract about diffusion here for ease of reference:
Like the movement of air in our atmosphere, it’s first and foremost about convection which comes about from temperature differences because of the scale, and work done to spread something, heat, external motion such as fan or movement of people in a room and energy by spraying and so on. Alcohol is very volatile for example, that creates heat and heat makes gases less dense, it’s the major constituent of most scents, and also, it has the effect of breaking the surface tension of water also an ingredient which is already evaporating at room temperature and water vapour is considerably lighter than air – all this helps spread the scent around the room (which is why these ingredients are chosen, more expensive perfumes with less or even no alcohol rely on close up heat from the body to make their point..). But especially remember scale. Brownian motion works on nanoscale – the volume and weight of the fluid it is in will restrict this movement over distance. The particles of dust from Africa reaching Florida haven’t got there by less than millimetre random movements.., but in volumes of wind, volumes of air on the move, through convection – the room is that on a smaller scale. Rooms are heated by convection, as warm air rises and the denser colder air sinks beneath it to be warmed in turn. How long would it take to get to Florida if it was Brownian motion?
I have been working in a chlorine factory. To protect workers and the neighbourhood, a network of chlorine monitors was installed, including a program to calculate the spread of any leak. The latter was expected to be thinned with between the 2nd and 3rd power of the distance. If it was only dispersed over the ground, it would be the 2nd power only, but as it is dispersed also in height, the 3rd power is involved, be it not complete. Chlorine is a lot heavier than CO2 (m.w. 71 vs. 44).
As with the scent in the room, there are other things that have to be taken into consideration, its properties and environment. Carbon monoxide monitors are placed on the wall iirc two or three feet above floor level because appliances which can malfunction also give off carbon dioxide and as this readily sinks to the floor it not recommended to plug the monitor into the floor socket because there might be enough CO2 to block the carbon monoxide from getting to the monitor. Breweries monitor carbon dioxide from ground level.
So, chlorine. It has an atomic weight half that, as there are two atoms in a covalent bond
This would have to be taken into consideration in monitoring chlorine (http://www.health.state.ny.us/environmental/emergency/chemical_terrorism/chlorine_tech.htm etc.). It’s a gas at room temperature, that heat will break it down to a one atom molecule and not much heavier than air, that the force bonding the two atoms is relatively weak, that it’s volatile like alcohol which means that the latent heat released when it turns into gas from liquid has to be considered as well as tthe force which would expel the chlorine from the factory, the height at which this would happen, the amount likely to be expelled, and so on.
What is at play here is that such examples and demonstrations as scent spread through a room and ink mixing in water to stay ‘thoroughly mixed and can’t be unmixed, same proportion throughout’, while giving the explanation ‘Browninan motion or ideal gas’, must have been originally created by someone or more who know real physics extremely well… The subtle tweaks to real physics, the swapping of properties and processes and cherry picking out of context laws are too consistent to be co-incidence. That this is spread in ignorance by those who take this on trust is the real tragedy in this, a whole generation now with a completely illogical understanding of basic physics and consequently living in a fictional Alice through the looking glass impossible world. No need to slaughter all the teachers and burn all the books, and turn everyone except the elite themselves into controlled serfs, the techniques developed in Marxist inspired ideolgies earlier in the last century being played out on a grand scale. No difference between the Fabians and Fascists and Natzis, between Cameron and Blair – the science doesn’t matter here, the more confusing they can make the better it suits. If you ever see a talk a glassy-eyed Gordon Brown gave in Australia you’ll find other techniques in play, in five minutes so many repetitions of new world order and variations, language never used in his career before becoming prime minister, not one record of such in Hansard. But I digress.
Will have to come back to this later, but I hope the Brownian motion thing has been explained well enough here now to see how shocked they were in the AIRS to find reality not as the AGWScience fiction memes have been propagated.
http://www.rkm.com.au/imagelibrary/index.html#molecular
Myrrh says:
August 15, 2011 at 8:10 pm
Myrrh, please. Brownian motion keeps very heavy particles in the air. Brownian motion keeps very heavy scent molecules in the air. And brownian motion keeps CO2 and chlorine in the air. The movement of these molecules is together with the air molecules by convection and wind. If you were right, then the scent molecules would drop out of the air far more rapid than the minute convection in a room, but that is not the case.
Further, there may is dissiciation of Cl2 molecules with very high temperatures, but that must be a very small portion at room temperature (actually, your reference gives no dissociation up to 200 degr.C). Chorine molecules don’t attack gold, but when in status nascendi (single atoms) it does. But even so, Cl2 has a molecular weight of 71, a single atom is 35.5, still heavier than oxygen or nitrogen molecules.
But you haven’t answered the main question: if all CO2 remains at ground level, why it is possible that CO2 levels increase up to 5,000 meter (AIRS) as good as at ground level from near the North Pole to the South Pole at about the same rate?
Ferdinand,
“But you haven’t answered the main question: if all CO2 remains at ground level, why it is possible that CO2 levels increase up to 5,000 meter (AIRS) as good as at ground level from near the North Pole to the South Pole at about the same rate?”
Clouds are transporting CO2 both horizontally and vertically at high rates. The cold water in clouds absorbs CO2. Some clouds will tower to over 10,000 meters in an afternoon. That cold water freezes and releases the absorbed CO2. Some of that CO2 gets in jet streams and is rapidly transported horizontally. Neither concentration gradiants or gravity have any significant effect on these transfer rates. Also,the behavior of clouds tends to fractionate C12/C13 and the index signal is increased as the CO2 is being transported from the tropical source to the polar sink.
Ferdinand Engelbeen says:
August 14, 2011 at 2:20 am
Thanks, the reasons why these were not used/changed were the very same ones I had read about before.
With me been aware of this thats why I brought this up because with Antarctica, how is it possible to know that errors with drilling only cause them to have higher data results and not lower data results? I thought these sensors only detected CO2 and not O2 or N2 etc.
With regards to Iceland CO2 levels during recent volcanic eruptions were still around normal over Greenland, only close to Iceland higher values were detected. How do you know these CO2 spikes were from volcanoes many thousands of years ago?
Finally, not interested in discrediting the ice cores if they reflect the true climate, (only looking for true picture) but with so few cores available with none the same. Claming a data set is automatically the one and ignoring others with these problems only increases my doubts, when there is little evidence to base them on.
Matt G says:
August 16, 2011 at 4:21 pm
The (infrared) measurements show CO2 levels in ratio to the rest of the gases. Only water vapour must be removed down to very low levels to avoid interference. Other gases have no overlap with the CO2 band, or are at very low levels. Some even more sophisticated methods sublimate all ice to an extreme low temperature, fractionating the different gases by selective distillation afterwards. Weight differences are used for the calculation.
Volcanoes represent only a small contribution (less than 1% of the human emissions) to the natural inflows; Thus the Icelandic volcanoes output is of less importance, even for nearby Greenland. What is important is the dust of the volcanoes, which is highly acidic and that travels over long distances, as the European flights have experienced. With the right wind conditions, that falls in part over the Greenland ice, is incorporated and reacts with ocean dust (carbonates), releasing extra CO2 over time.
Despite that different ice cores have very different circumstances and resolution, overlapping periods show the same CO2 level over all periods, within 5 ppmv. And recently confirmed by over 2 million years of sediments, as discussed before.
Matt G says:
August 16, 2011 at 4:21 pm
I think that I have misinterpreted your question:
With me been aware of this thats why I brought this up because with Antarctica, how is it possible to know that errors with drilling only cause them to have higher data results and not lower data results?
If you have a data series and some of the data show values extremely outside the range of the other data, it is prudent to assume that these are outliers, not the reverse, but one need to check if that is plausible. In the case of the Neftel work at the Siple Dome ice core, the layers where the outliers were found were examined in detail and showed contamination with drilling fluid in cracks. Further examination of the same ice layers with smaller samples did show an enormous variation of CO2 levels, including values in the “normal” range. Thus it was clear that the contamination was the source of the extra CO2 levels in some samples. Many years later, a new core was drilled at Siple Dome and no increased values were found over the same ice age where the previous contamination was found…
That contamination leads to higher results is because the current atmosphere is already 100-200 ppmv higher than what is found in ice core bubbles and drilling fluid may dissolve even more CO2 out of the atmosphere, compared to dissolved O2/N2 (but I haven’t seen any figures yet about the solubility of CO2/O2/N2 in such fluids). The CO2 measurements are done under vacuum, CO2 dissolved in drilling fluids would come out and enrich the levels, if O2/N2 are less soluble.
It would be quite remarkable that CO2 migrates from lower to higher levels, and at the same time O2/N2 doesn’t migrate, thus decreasing the ratio in the bubbles. I do expect the reverse, if there was any migration at all, as CO2 has more affinity with ice/water than O2/N2, thus migrating less fast or not at all, which should lead to too high levels, which is not observed.
Ferdinand Engelbeen says:
Thanks for your responces and it has been explained well, but to be more confident it would have been better to measure the affected ice samples again where especially chemicals influenced the results, so either to improve or deduce the error involved. The ice cores samples are/were still available with only small parts of each section needed. This would be better with all the money invested in the project to make a data set available again to compare with other data sets. (Time maybe a factor more important than money) Rather than dismiss it because of the errors where only another core sample showed different (one), but with expected results automatically becomes the one. This is because during interglaciers would expect a high value(s) to stick out from the rest of the data during a 90,000+ year major ice age.