By Mike Smith of Meteorological Musings
This story from London’s Daily Mail is so bad, the reporter won’t even put his or her name on it.
In the story, we learn the Joplin tornado was caused by global warming. We learn that Katrina was caused by global warming. We learn that droughts are caused by global warming. Floods are caused by global warming. Apparently, every storm or unusual weather phenomena is caused by global warming.
So, lets play ‘climate scientist’ (why not, apparently you don’t have to have any credentials to be one) and take a look at the arguments made in the article.
We’ll start with Hurricane Katrina. Remember how, in the wake of Katrina, we were told that hurricanes were going to be more frequent and more intense? Take, for example, this claim:
The work of hurricane expert Dr. Kerry Emanuel indicates that Global Warming provided the extra margin of energy that gave Hurricane Katrina enough power to break the levees in New Orleans. This is the conclusion of scientists, Global Warming observers along the Gulf Coast and others.
Hurricanes get their strength directly from the heat in the oceans they travel over, so it has long been expected that Global Warming would have an effect on the frequency and/or the intensity of tropical cyclones, which are called hurricanes in the United States. Observations have confirmed a sharp increase in intensity. The result is that the number of dangerous Category 3, 4, and 5 storms has increased. Dr. Emanuel’s innovation, the “power dissipation index,” helps track this intensification over time.
So, what actually happened from 2006 to 2010? The opposite of what was predicted! The five years since Katrina have seen record low hurricane activity — both intensity and numbers! The proof is right here (scroll down from top). The pro-GW crowd got it exactly wrong, again. One would think they would learn some humility, but that never seems to occur.
Second, here is their list of weather events tied to global warming (click to enlarge):
Considering the list encompasses the entire world for 11 years, there isn’t very much here. Nearly half of the years (2001, 2002, 2004, 2007, 2008) don’t have a single occurrence. Considering the warmest year was 1998 (see below) and that temperatures have cooled some since then the list proves nothing. As I have stated before, if tornadoes were tied to global temperatures there would have been record tornadoes in 1998. They did not occur.
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| World temperatures from the UK’s Hadley Center. |
Here is a graph of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (parts per million) since 1997. It continues to rise.
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| CO2 levels from the Mauna Loa Observatory |
But, temperatures do not rise with it. If, as the IPCC contends, CO2 is the dominant force driving atmospheric temperatures, then temperatures would have (more or less) risen along with CO2. That simply hasn’t occurred either in the atmosphere or in ocean heat content (the more important metric).
Blaming the Joplin tornado on global warming smacks of desperation. They are losing the scientific argument so they call people names and make ridiculous claims like blaming an individual tornado on global warming. They get away with it because most of the media prints this nonsense generally without question.
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From Anthony:
I’m taking most of the weekend off to recover from my trip to ICCC6 and be with family on this holiday weekend, posting will be light until Tuesday, but I wanted to take a moment to give Mike Smith’s Meteorological Musings website and book a well deserved plug.
Mike is a weather and climate realist. In his world of practical forecasting, which I see much like like that of an engineer, you base your work on reality and hard facts, because if you don’t, there are tangible losses, and people may die from botched forecasts. He doesn’t have the luxury of making a forecast without responsibility or consequences if he is wrong like some climate scientists tend to do.
So bookmark his website, and may I recommend his book Warnings: The true story of how science tamed the weather.
I’ve read it, and I’ve lived and experienced much of what he’s written about in the quest to make forecasting, especially severe weather forecasting, more accurate, timely, and specific. For those of us that prefer practical approaches over the rampant speculation on mere wisps of connections to climate (such as the Daily Mail piece), this book is for you.
Thanks to the idiots in the California legislature and Gov. (Moonbeam) Brown, that have pissed off Amazon.com so bad that they’ve canceled all affiliates account holders in California, I won’t get that few cents if somebody buys the book via the link anymore.
But, I don’t care, the book is well written, factual, and engaging, and I’m happy to recommend it on that basis but also for the fact that if you buy it through Amazon now, you’ll spite those morons in Sacramento by depriving them of tax revenue that California affiliates.
Hell, I may buy another copy myself.
You would think at least one AGW scientist would be warning us against all the CO2 bubbling out of beer steins this holiday and to keep the lid closed between gulps.
I strongly disagree with Mike. This is the stupidest climate story of the week.
http://eyeonthearctic.rcinet.ca/en/news/canada/44-environment/938-rapid-melting-of-arctic-sea-ice-possibly-explained
Our friends from Caitlin, after complaining about the cold all spring, now say they have found COLDER water, deeper, than they saw before. To them, its obviously global warming. They seem to think that first year ice is saltier than the water below, and that when it melts, its COLDER than the water below. (which begs the question of why the warmer water has not melted the ice already. But lets not let logic interrupt these science morons).
They are ignorant of the fact that as sea water cools, it becomes denser, and sinks, leaving some relatively fresher water above. This freezes at a higher temperature. The ice also becomes less salty through salt exclusion, becoming nearly pure water in a few years. But, after even one winter, some salt is lost, and the ice’s melt point goes still higher.
But to these science challenged polar hikers, melting ice sinks into the heavier, colder brine below, and reduces the temperature of the brine.
And they hope to publish a paper on this phenomena.
Ok, this might also be the stupidest story of the week.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/7645112/Melting-sea-ice-would-cause-sea-levels-to-rise-by-hairs-breadth.html
Ahh, such a target rich environment, one does not know where to start….
Daily Fail contributors seem to be paid by the word – ‘never mind the quality, feel the width’ comes to mind… Best not to encourage them – I don’t even read it online any more!
But the strange thing is, it still seems to be the paper most left-of-centre politicians ‘fear’ the most…
Well, that was a stupid article but perhaps not as stupid as this one from Friday’s Business Day here in Johannesburg:
Climate change may kill Joburg golfers
Researcher says as temperatures and humidity increase there is a point where they combine to the extent that no human could maintain a healthy temperature
http://www.businessday.co.za/Articles/Content.aspx?id=147333
One more candidate. Lets spend 100 billion on windmills, then spend 17 billion on gas fired plants to back them up. Is no one in government numerate? Why spend 6 times the money, when for 1/6 the cost, you can get clean reliable power, on demand.
Cut out the bird shredders, for god’s sake.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8608272/Drop-in-electricity-from-onshore-wind.html
One more candidate, again from Louise.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8608272/Drop-in-electricity-from-onshore-wind.html
Wind generation fell 6% against total power generated, but they are still on track to meet targets.
Shout out to Bruce Lee: Another Manhattan Morning
http://oi51.tinypic.com/2nrn4zk.jpg
More climate craziness
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/07/03/navy-admiral-we-haven’t-had-an-ocean-open-on-this-planet-since-the-end-of-the-ice-age/
Extreme climate craziness:
http://notrickszone.com/2011/07/03/masterplanner-schellhuber-more-and-more-people-are-predicting-death-of-the-earth-soon/
http://theconversation.edu.au/the-greenhouse-effect-is-real-heres-why-1515
More extreme climate craziness
http://notrickszone.com/2011/07/03/kooky-german-government-views-sea-level-rise-as-more-dangerous-than-terrorism-extremism-iran-afghanistan/
The reason they are turning to weather events as opposed to basing their claims on climate is twofold. One, global mean temps have stalled. Two, almost all their poster children have turned corners (exept the Arctic / Greenland which have remained undecided over the past few years).
Poster children / predictions
Barrier reef
Snowfalls a thing of the past / Scottish ski industry doomed
Snowpack
Lake Powell
Australia perpetual drought
Hurricanes and tornadoes
Polar bear numbers
and so on…………………..
The Daily Mail is read by at least 7 million people, so don’t fall for any sillly charactures of it…
They have also been swinging both ways, for quite a while (In the last few months very many windfarms are useless stories, etc) As this is quoting, a Professor of Atmospheric Physics, at Reading University (usually very prpo AGW) it should get some attention… It is perhaps being framed in a way that it is a local to Britaina phenonma, and of course whilst Britain and Europe freeze, global warming will still be occuring, doubt that the public will buy that though….
TODAYS – Daily Mail story makes interesting reading….
Daily Mail; Is Britain about to be plunged into a Little Ice Age?
By Daily Mail Reporter
Scientists think Britain and Europe could be in for a chilly few years predicting a ‘Little Ice Age’ could be on its way in just a few decades time.
Average temperatures in Britain could fall by two degrees centigrade, according to the study led by Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics at Reading University, because of a drop in the amount of sunspot activity.
His findings, published by the Institute of Physics, (IoP) showed that in the next 50 years there is a one in 10 chance of the sun returning to conditions seen between 1645 and 1715 when the River Thames in London regularly froze over, as did the Baltic Sea.
Known as the Maunder Minimum during these years astronomers could not see any sunspots and Europe endured unusually harsh winters which came to be known as the Little Ice Age.
A scene from the 2004 film The Day After Tomorrow where temperatures dropped freezing New York
Professor Lockwood’s findings could mean the average winter temperature could drop below 2.5C, compared to the average British winter now of 5C, the newspaper reported.
In June, three different studies all concluded that sunspot activity looks set to decline over the next 10 years.
Experts said the next upswing in sunspot activity, which follows an 11-year cycle, will not be as strong as normal – or might not even happen at all.
The findings were presented at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society’s solar physics division.
They said a decrease in global warming might result in the years after 2020, the approximate time when sunspots are expected to disappear for years, maybe even decades.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2010757/Shivering-Britain-Little-Ice-Age-way.html#ixzz1R372R4gH
Don’t forget the “whole” picture:
http://kleinverzet.blogspot.com/2011/07/rarely-heard-truth.html
and
http://green-agenda.com
sigh…..My comment at 0622 and 0647 should have had this link.
http://www.australianclimatemadness.com/2011/07/the-pointlessness-of-wind-power/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-pointlessness-of-wind-power
I said it was target rich environment….its easy to confuse them all…..
If the claims of 1 degree of extra temperature adds energy to the atmosphere, which in turn is causing many more storms, etc. One should keep in mind that the total amount of energy is calculated from the starting temperature of 0 Kelvin, so at a world average increase from around 291K to an increased temp of 1 K, that is only around 0.3% increase in energy. If increased moisture caused by 1 extra degree is causing increasing numbers of floods, then why is it so dry where I live near Vancouver in the summer, and so wet in the Winter, when there is 20 to 30 degrees difference in temps between the seasons, and the opposite occurs?
Of course I know the reason, its alarmism, whatever would be the worst thing to happen is selected as what will happen and communicated to the general public.
When a recent CBC National news item began a report using the words ‘Wacky Weather’ I actually started feeling ill, seeing the setup for the junk science report to follow.
Thank you CBC, you have motivated me to spend the 10 to 11 pm time slot to do something more worthwhile, like read the classic Quantum Mechanics book by Albert Messiah. The Ether wind story in the first chapter reminds me of something, hmmm.
The same Professor Lockwood ( a very respectable scientists) who is saying that the next few decades will see less wind….
Shame about all the windfarms that the government are encouraging..
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics/Blow-to-green-energy-plans.6776536.jp
Professor Michael Lockwood of Reading University said: “We reached a high point of solar activity in 1985. Since then, it has been declining. We are now halfway back to the levels seen during the Maunder Minimum. The probability is that decline will continue for the next 40 years.”
Fellow Reading University academic Dr David Brayshaw warned: “If wind speed lowers, we can expect to generate less electricity from turbines – that’s a no-brainer.”
About 75 per cent of Scotland’s green power comes from turbines.
First Minister Alex Salmond has vowed to create “the green energy powerhouse of the continent”, while the Scottish Government has pledged to aim to secure all of Scotland’s energy needs from renewable sources by 2020, when, it says, it will produce three gigawatts of energy, enough to power three million households
Kev-in-Uk says:
July 3, 2011 at 3:34 am
Sad to say, but I have to agree. I am getting to the point where I just cannot see how we could break through the web that has been woven for oh so many years. I get depressed about it, but then take a ‘F-it!’ POV, and hope it does not hurt me too much in the end.
Now I just laugh when people go on about AGW. If they really insist on knowing why, I’ll ask a question I know they can’t answer, and then say “Oh, I thought you were at least slightly informed. Take the time to find out a bit more about it.”
Most of these people have absolutely no input on the matter aside from the MSM. The same people believe that Japan is highly radioactive and people will be dying from it for decades. So nuclear power is very dangerous, of course. Far more dangerous than sitting 10km in the air hoping that a flow of fast air over a few mm of aluminum will keep me from plunging to your death (many, many more people are killed by flying than nuclear power). Go figure.
Geoff Shorten says:
July 3, 2011 at 6:21 am
Hah! That was hilarious!
I suffered a full 18 holes in a Mackay summer (about 500k into the tropics). I am still here to tell the tale. I must admit the last 6 holes were rough, but the thought of the 19th kept me going.
Locals were shrugging off the heat like it was no problem. I guess humans may be able to adapt, eh?
Oh, I forgot, entire careers have been based on this false alarm. Weather is all they have left.
Tornados are the result of the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Gulf of Mexico which is at its greatest in spring. Tornado alley is the result of there being no physical barrier (i.e. mountains) to stop the airflow and the conveyer of storms spawning tornados has free play. There’s only one other place with similar conditions, in Argentinia. There are hardly any tornados in Asia because any budging conveyor between equatorial and polar regions are stopped in the bud by the Himalas, Hindu Kush, Caucasus etc.
So, if the current season was particularly active the cause should be in a larger than usual temperature difference between GoM and Artic regions of Canada. And guess what: spring up North was rather late. The observations thus indicate that more than usual tonado activity is due to Arctic cooling.
But hey, we know that a cooling Arctic is one of the manifestations of global warming, don’t we?
Dan,
The news report you link to does not include 2009 or 2010. It stops in 2008.
The peer reviewed link is in relation to the world as opposed to the USA.
I was looking at the graph from the Mauna Loa observatory and noticed that the slope of the line is amazingly constant over fifteen years. Has anyone considered whether humans put out CO2 at a similarly increasing rate? I’d have thought there’d be more of a variation in the rise, as Europe switched to lower-CO2-generation natural gas for electricity, or China brought another five coal-powered plants on line in a given month. But that line rises at the same rate (with its 5 ppm seasonal bump just as constant) seemingly regardless of what volcanoes erupt or humans throw into the air.
Has anyone given any official scientific thought about what that graph should look like given our output vs. what it actually does look like, or is it just used as another stick to beat us all over the head with?