Some surprising sanity from one of the most insane places on the web. This could be a Nike ad, all it needs is a swoosh to go with the slogan. Joe Romm and Bill McKibben, this message is for you from your kossack in arms.
From the “weatherdude” at Daily Kos:
Here’s a further excerpt:
I’ve said it a few times (much to the dismay of many), but the tornadoes this year do not indicate a growing trend. If we have numerous tornado oubreaks of this intensity in the decade, THEN it’s a worrying trend. Until then, stop with the talking point positioning. We know climate change is happening, but to say that the tornadoes were a direct result without the trend of tornado outbreaks with this intensity to back it up is a really big freakin’ leap.
If this shit happens again next year, and the year after that, I’ll go into full mea culpa mode. But until then, stop it. It weakens our argument to scream “CLIMATE CHANGE ZOMG!” every time something bad happens. It takes trends over years to make this argument. Trends equal climate, events equal weather.
Earlier today someone posted a diary saying that the heat burst in Wichita, KS this week was “the beginning” of some more nefarious climate stuff happening. No it’s not! As I said in the diary’s comments, heat bursts are a well documented natural phenomenon that’s happened ever since thunderstorms started. The tl;dr explanation is that dry air got into the thunderstorm as it collapsed (all the rain/hail upstairs falls down at once because the storm can’t support it anymore), and the rain evaporated and made the dry air cooler. As it got cooler, it got denser, and fell to the ground. As it fell, it compressed and heated up, hit the ground, made the temperatures rise in a hurry and created 50-60 MPH winds.
That’s it. That’s what happened. It didn’t happen because the oceans are warming or the ice caps are melting or because BP fucking sucks. It happened because the updraft could no longer support a column of precipitation, it fell, heated up and dispersed at ground level. It’s not climate change and it weakens our argument to call it climate change, so stop it. Just because you don’t understand why something is happening doesn’t mean you should run to the nearest public forum and shout the first thing that comes to your mind.
Brave man, his full essay is here. h/t to Keith Kloor
WUWT covered the Wichita heat burst here, and I agree with the analysis he printed above.
For basic science on the issues of the tornado outbreaks this year, may I suggest these two WUWT essays:
The folly of linking tornado outbreaks to “climate change”
NOAA CSI: no attribution of climate change to tornado outbreak


NikFromNYC said: “Today I discovered a creepy doppelganger site, in which AGW enthusiasts snicker about posts here amongst themselves on a WUWT mirror site instead of actually posting here.”
” http://wottsupwiththat.com ”
The thing I noticed most is that often the guy can’t put 1,000 words together that make sense when 100 would do if he added logic. And his blind faith in Joe Romm doesn’t help his case. For example, his claim that Romm’s old posts would reappear after the redesign failed to mention when or whether they have reappeared yet or not. There seems to be no way to find them. A Catholic is more likely to check what a priest says than the CAGW faithful are to check “the wisdom.”.
RICK — They can’t write a simple blog posting without cursing.
This is a style choice — “Keepin’ it real, man. Speak like the street people. You ain’t no better.” — and not a reflection of education and/or ability. They reckon themselves as cunning linguists.
Just out of curiosity, is it possible to find a left wing blog comment that does not include the F-bomb? Anywhere? Anytime? It seems like progressive politics are mimicking the Children’s Crusade.
It is refreshing to see others begin to examine [remember] history and think, alas, if you scan the comments you will note that no good turn goes unpunished.
Oh man. I think he just won P.J. Gladnik’s Golden Kewpie Doll of the Year Award for Persistent Mental Clarity.
(If you don’t know who that is, search on “Dummie Funnies” and see for yourself. He generally focuses his wit on Democratic Underground but will occassionally delve into ridicule of DKos as well.)
Hey, I used to read that site regularly. I believed in AGW but didn’t know much about the details. After reading a couple of scary diaries warning of ocean acidification and the Venus scenario happening on earth, I finally decided to do some research on climate change to see how bad it really was. Long story short, now I read this site regularly instead.
Re: pedal power.
Why not go back to beasts of burden as water motors. Use them to pump water uphill, then release said water to generate electricity. Not only do we get green energy, but we can also collect the brown energy for our gardens!
Yes, but then the commenters go insane! The very first one quotes……. Joe Romm.
Wow even TIME has published the sun story! I’m amazed the solar post has been demoted so quickly while MSM stories keep creeping in the cybershere!
http://techland.time.com/2011/06/15/claim-sunspots-to-disappear-global-cooling-may-ensue/
Trying to use the guest log-in, the “mail” line is now not accepting my email address! Watts Up With That!!!! 🙂
Signed: Want’s to log in as Sonicfrog like I always do but can’t because the log-in now tells me my e-mail address I’ve been using here since this site went on-line is no longer valid!
This is a very good time for everyone to take the perspective of scientific method and reflect on what we know about the Maunder Minimum and about manmade CO2. It seems to me that the scientists who are offering information about this sun cycle and the possibility of a new Maunder Minimum are doing so with cool heads and practicing good science. They tell us what information they need to collect, they have a wait and see attitude, and they are clear that we might know very little by way of new science for at least a decade. They are very clear that it might be decades before the science becomes definitive regarding this matter. Contrast this behavior with that of the Warmista.
Take Al Gore as the extreme example. He used the Hockey Stick and many other dubious items in an attempt to create a fear among the citizenry that would compel the government to take painful actions to reduce energy consumption. Whether or not he said “The science is settled,” he argued that consensus science required that we act now. However, the simple truth is that there is no greater evidence for the claim that manmade CO2 is causing global warming than there is for the claim that a quiet sun will cause another Little Ice Age. The astrophysicists are interested in the science, not in a particular policy goal. The Warmista are exactly the opposite. They are pushing for a policy goal and using their dubious claims about the science in support of their policy effort. Take the case of Schmidt.
News reports yesterday related that Schmidt made the dogmatic claim that the sun’s behavior can affect Earth’s climate only at the margin. So what caused the Little Ice Age, someone might have asked. “Volcanoes,” said Schmidt. Of course, Schmidt has no evidence for any of this. His so-called “evidence” for the effects of the sun on Earth’s climate are simply his climate models. Compare how Schmidt and the astrophysicists address their models. The astrophysicists state the qualifications that are necessary for their science and make clear that they will know something very important in ten to seventy-five years. By contrast, Schmidt is dogmatic and categorical in claiming that no information about the sun could change his conclusions about global warming. Yet all Schmidt has are models and he should be as circumspect in basing claims on models as are the astrophysicists. Schmidt should say that in ten to seventy-five years, approximately, we might have some solid science, not models, that actually explains the causes of global warming.
So, we are blessed with an ongoing experiment in scientific method. We can watch Schmidt with his models and we can watch the astrophysicists with their models and see who is the better scientist, who better follows scientific method. My bet is that Schmidt will be forever stuck in his models while the astrophysicists will move quickly to replace models with physical hypotheses that are reasonably well-confirmed.
Keith Battye at 12.49am points to the open letter from the commanding heights of our unbiased scientific community clamouring that climate change is real. Well you take out the ones belonging to Departments containing climate change, earth science, environment, sustainable, sustainability, ecology, ecological, ecosystem, conservation, public awareness, plant energy, political and you’re largely left with the odd go-getter flogging geothermal or small wind turbines.
Streuth! What a typical cross-section of the Great Global Gruesome Greasum that bunch of small wind turbines represents so poignantly.
Revkin has a piece on it: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/would-solar-lull-snuff-climate-action/ . He’s already contacted “other “scientists, who (surprise, surprise) express considerable skepticism.
“I’ve sent a query to a batch of solar physicists and other experts not involved with the three studies discussed at the meeting. There’s substantial skepticism in some quarters. In an initial reply this morning Douglas Biesecker, a scientist at the Space Weather Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, wrote: “I consider the strength of evidence to be anemic and the reasoning to be highly suspect.” He’s sending a more detailed analysis later. “
Although i am not in the CAGW camp, weatherdude’s experience mirrors my own.
One is unlikely to have a real conversation with the true believers; mention the slightest thing that they don’t understand, or ask the most innocuous question and the name calling begins and discussion stops. I have found this to be true even when the ‘believer’ is generally articulate and rational about other topics. This must be a human failing- challenging a person’s belief structure angers them (not me, of course- oh no)
Regarding climate change – if it stops changing be very afraid.
Lake Osoyoos is already high and the summer melt isn’t even started.
Regarding Daily Kos – don’t shoot the messenger even when the messenger is more foolish than the message. Shoot the message, don’t miss.
Regarding the modern little ice age – it is a blip, not a trend. If it happens at all. When it is finished we will be right back here, climate wise. You can take that to the bank. It will give India some breathing time before the source of all things, water from the north, stops flowing. They need to act now. You cannot last long on glacier melt any more than you can live long drinking from a block of melting ice. A glacier is not a lake – it is more like a pond. A very cold pond, but when its gone, its gone. Could have been written by Jack Handy.
Pay attention to this: You are going to be harshly exposed to the reason the left quit talking about global warming and started beating the drum of climate change. It is still a bogus argument (see above regarding change) but that won’t slow them down. Because it is likely to get colder, now, more than ever, carbon based energy has to be phased out. You don’t want to come out of the MLIA (modern little ice age) with CO2 at >450ppm. That or some form of it is the new message. They won’t stop – you shouldn’t either.
Curiousgeorge quotes Revkin Quoting a Scientist:
June 15, 2011 at 8:58 am
“I consider the strength of evidence to be anemic and the reasoning to be highly suspect.”
Well, yeah, exactly the same as supports the AGW position. But the astrophysicists are careful to qualify their claims. None of them are predicting a Little Ice Age. (Pay attention, Revkin.)
Climate change sense from the Kos? Perhaps they better have a real look at climate change – For more than 55 million years, Ellesmere Island, in Canada’s high Arctic, remained in one place while the world around it changed. Fifty-five million years ago, verdant forests grew at 75° North latitude. These wetland forests, comprised of species now primarily found in China, grew on an alluvial plain where channels meandered back and forth and periodic floods buried stumps, logs, and leaves intact. Today the forests are preserved as coal seams that outcrop on the edges …of modern Ellesmere Island, where there are no forests, and the tallest vegetation grows less than 15 cm high. Large parts of the area are polar desert, subject to intensely cold and dark winters and minimal precipitation.
Now THAT’S climate change. From trees and wetlands in the high arctic to intense cold where vegetation can barely scratch out an existence even in summer. We’re barely 18,000 years from the last ice age and we darn well better show at least some warming. However, with the sun entering a quiet phase we’re all about to enter a scientific period of research and learning none of us alive have ever experienced. Personally speaking, I’m darn happy I’m working here in the oil sands ( also the entire areas has 100s of gas fields) and well have all the heat and lights whatever comes my way.
I’m also with Michael when he says cities and municipalities in North America – prepare to enhance your snow removal budgets. The past number of winters too many cities and municipalities across North America if not the northern hemisphere have badly underestimated winter weather when budgeting. In my opinion the quite sun IS making it’s presence known if intelligent people even bother to read this site they would have at least a heads up. Or is that asking too much?
`Just because you don’t understand why something is happening doesn’t mean you should run to the nearest public forum and shout the first thing that comes to your mind.`
Religion anyone?
BTW, I forgot to mention: Headline in Daily Mail Britain. Earth facing a mini-Ice Age ‘within ten years’ due to rare drop in sunspot activity. A decrease in global warming might result in the years after 2020, the approximate time when sunspots are expected to disappear for years, maybe even decades.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2003824/Earth-facing-mini-Ice-Age-years-rare-drop-sunspot-activity.html
[Snip. Calling other commentators “deniers” violates site Policy. ~dbs, mod.]
Religion differs in this way – it is unflinchingly scripted, well documented, and they show their work. The source data can be found in any hotel room. Climate science is unflinchingly scripted, not well documented, and they don’t show their work. Both require a lot of faith.
Does anyone here track Wall Street? In particular investment trends related to “Green”, CO2, etc. How will this play on the Street, once it sinks in? Should I short AGW related stocks? How about commodities?
Props to the Daily Kos guy. That’s using common sense. He’ll get bounced out of that forum, likely.
Bill Marsh,
Climate Pollution
Is it me or do we have more trolls posting now that Romm no longer allows comments?