“If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades,” Hill said. “That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.”
Update: see the official press release here – “All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while.”
It looks like Livingston and Penn are getting some long deserved recognition. See their graph below:
Graph above from the WUWT solar reference page. Note: when the B gauss reading of sunspots hits 1500, they will no longer have enough contrast to be visible. That may occur at or near the years 2015-2017. WUWT carried a story in 2008 warning of this.
The American Astronomical Society meeting in Los Cruces, NM has just made a major announcement on the state of the sun. Sunspots may be on the way out and an extended solar minimum may be on the horizon.
From Space.com reporting from the conference:
Some unusual solar readings, including fading sunspots and weakening magnetic activity near the poles, could be indications that our sun is preparing to be less active in the coming years.
The results of three separate studies seem to show that even as the current sunspot cycle swells toward the solar maximum, the sun could be heading into a more-dormant period, with activity during the next 11-year sunspot cycle greatly reduced or even eliminated.
The results of the new studies were announced today (June 14) at the annual meeting of the solar physics division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces.
…
Currently, the sun is in the midst of the period designated as Cycle 24 and is ramping up toward the cycle’s period of maximum activity. However, the recent findings indicate that the activity in the next 11-year solar cycle, Cycle 25, could be greatly reduced. In fact, some scientists are questioning whether this drop in activity could lead to a second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period from 1645 to 1715 when the sun showed virtually no sunspots.
…
“We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now, but we see no sign of it,” Hill said. “This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all.”
…
If the models prove accurate and the trends continue, the implications could be far-reaching.
“If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades,” Hill said. “That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.”
More on this as it unfolds. This article will be updated as new information becomes available.
See also these previous WUWT posts leading up to this:
Solar activity still driving in the slow lane
Sun’s magnetics remain in a funk: sunspots may be on their way out
The sun is still in a slump – still not conforming to NOAA “consensus” forecasts
Livingston and Penn in EOS: Are Sunspots Different During This Solar Minimum?
Livingston and Penn paper: “Sunspots may vanish by 2015″.
Sunspots Today: A Cheshire Cat – New Essay from Livingston and Penn
=======================================================================
As I have been saying for some time:
The long term Ap (the solar geomagnetic index) has been on a downtrend, ever since there was a step change in October 2005.
Thanks to Leif Svalgaard, we have a more extensive and “official” Ap dataset (NOAA’s SWPC shown above has some small issues) that I’ve plotted below. The step change in October 2005 is still visible and the value of 3.9 that occurred in April of 2009 is the lowest for the entire dataset. The Ap Index was the lowest in 75 years then.
Click for a larger image
And I’ve also plotted the 1991 to 2009 from BGS/Svalgaard to compare against the NOAA SWPC data:
============================================================
Dr. Leif Svalgaard writes:
Here are the abstracts of the three studies referred to in the announcement:
P16.10
Large-scale Zonal Flows During the Solar Minimum — Where Is Cycle 25?13
Frank Hill, R. Howe, R. Komm, J. Christensen-Dalsgaard, T. P. Larson, J. Schou, M. J. Thompson
The so-called torsional oscillation is a pattern of migrating zonal flow bands that move from midlatitudes towards the equator and poles as the magnetic cycle progresses. Helioseismology allows us to probe these flows below the solar surface. The prolonged solar minimum following Cycle 23 was accompanied by a delay of 1.5 to 2 years in the migration of bands of faster rotation towards the equator. During the rising phase of Cycle 24, while the lower-level bands match those seen in the rising phase of Cycle 23, the rotation rate at middle and higher latitudes remains slower than it was at the corresponding phase in earlier cycles, perhaps reflecting the weakness of the polar fields. In addition, there is no evidence of the poleward flow associated with Cycle 25. We will present the latest results based on nearly sixteen years of global helioseismic observations from GONG and MDI, with recent results from HMI, and discuss the implications for the development of Cycle 25.
P17.21
A Decade of Diminishing Sunspot Vigor
W. C. Livingston, M. Penn, L. Svalgaard
s Convention Center
Sunspots are small dark areas on the solar disk where internal magnetism, 1500 to 3500 Gauss, has been
buoyed to the surface. (Spot life times are the order of one day to a couple of weeks or more. They are thought to be dark because convection inhibits the outward transport of energy there). Their “vigor” can be described by spot area, spot brightness intensity, and magnetic field. From 2001 to 2011 we have measured field strength and brightness at the darkest position in umbrae of 1750 spots using the Zeeman splitting of the Fe 1564.8 nm line. Only one observation per spot per day is carried out during our monthly telescope time of 3-4 days average. Over this interval the temporal mean magnetic field has declined about 500 Gauss and mean spot intensity has risen about 20%. We do not understand the physical mechanism behind these changes or the effect, if any, it will have on the Earth environment.
P18.04
Whither goes Cycle 24? A View from the Fe XIV Corona
Richard C. Altrock
Solar Cycle 24 had a historically prolonged and weak start. Observations of the Fe XIV corona from the Sacramento Peak site of the National Solar Observatory showed an abnormal pattern of emission compared to observations of Cycles 21, 22, and 23 from the same instrument. The previous three cycles had a strong, rapid “Rush to the Poles” in Fe XIV. Cycle 24 displays a delayed, weak, intermittent, and slow “Rush” that is mainly apparent in the northern hemisphere. If this Rush persists at its current rate, evidence from previous cycles indicates that solar maximum will occur in approximately early 2013. At lower latitudes, solar maximum previously occurred when the greatest number of Fe XIV emission regions* first reached approximately 20° latitude. Currently, the value of this parameter at 20° is approximately 0.15. Previous behavior of this parameter indicates that solar maximum should occur in approximately two years, or 2013. Thus, both techniques yield an expected time of solar maximum in early 2013.
*annual average number of Fe XIV emission features per day greater than 0.19
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Maybe old Willet was right…
Take a look at: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1951JAtS….8….1W
Mike McMillan says:
June 14, 2011 at 3:14 pm
“Statistically significant cooling in the future is not a possibility as long as we continue to fund GISS, and USHCN v3 will doubtless show that the past was even colder than previously thought.”
Yes, probably tomorrow Hansen and Schmidt will come out with papers proving that the 1930s were just as cold as we thought the LIttle Ice Age was. Then, if the new Maunder Minimum does materialize, they will come out with papers proving that the Little Ice Age was so cold that it actually killed 99% of all humans alive at the time.
pete says:
June 14, 2011 at 4:37 pm
Leif, while L&P is certainly numerology solar physics is still in its infancy ie we cant yet explain why the corona is hotter than the sun’s surface, nor explain the mechanisms behind solar flares or sunspots.
We can explain the hot corona and the flares. It is just that we have too many explanations that are all plausible and cannot decide which one is the right one. Possibly there are more than one.
So any predictions of solar activity and the effect on the Earth could be considered to be numerology at this stage
We can [or rather I can, or claim to, based on solid physics] predict solar activity. Its effect on the Earth’s lower atmosphere is likely still numerology [on the upper atmosphere, solid physics].
and will be until we have a consistent solar model that at least explains its main features (despite the protestations of solar scientists, the current model of the sun does not adequately explain the sun’s operation, and the inability to understand the changes it undergoes underline that point)
Again the problem is too many explanations [see e.g. Brandenburg: http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0502275 ].
Tilo Reber says:
June 14, 2011 at 5:30 pm
I believe that you fall into the “still in the running” camp.
Looks like it, and I’m, of course, not surprised 🙂
Ed Mertin says:
June 14, 2011 at 7:04 pm
Leif, what is your outlook for the future? Warm, cold?Since I don’t think the Sun has much to do with the climate [a tenth or so degree at most], I can’t extrapolate from solar activity to Earth environment. We said so in the last sentence of our SPD abstract: “We do not understand the physical mechanism behind these changes or the effect, if any, it will have on the Earth environment.”
Thanks Leif, for taking the time to answer. Not enough time in the day for me to examine everything right now. Your opinion is valuable, and still solid I see.
Always amusing when the true believers come here and leave their crumbs over a thread where actual scientific discussion is happening. If they weren’t so economically dangerous, warmistas would be kinda cute.
Looks like the late, great Alan Sullivan (Seablogger) was proven prescient when he started worrying about this two+ years ago.
The world we know to-day, cannot exist on a cooling Earth. Only a continuing warming, with enhanced CO2 induced growth, with more available moisture, can possibly sustain peak population. Any cooling will quickly manifest by rapid decrease in agra yields and the disappearance of food surplus. Cold will quickly teach the world – What misery really means. It was the purpose of such tales as Hansel and Gretel.
I find it somewhat ironic that at this time, mankind is striving mightily, laboriously, to prevent a warming trend and magnify cooling effects. God help us! GK
Solar activity or lack of could impact on climate. Surely not! Don’t the IPCC scriptures tell us that it’s only TSI that influences climate?
Chad said:
“Looks like the late, great Alan Sullivan (Seablogger) was proven prescient when he started worrying about this two+ years ago.”
Just like a number of us:
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/features-2/wilde-weather/the-death-blow-to-anthropogenic-global-warming/13291.html
So, should I be happy I live in Florida, or should I be concerned I am only 42 feet above sea-level?
This is my latest representation of the spot area ‘vigor’:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/uSC24vs13_14.GIF
Jimbo says:
June 14, 2011 at 5:03 pm
Obviously, it was open when the 3 ships arrived there, only to meet thier doom.
The Arctic is known for fast-moving sea ice.
A Maunder minimum redux is truly inconvenient should it come to pass. I’m not worried about harsh winters – those we already have here in the PNWet. But we’ve just had a cool spring and a very cool (relative, subjective opinions) late spring. I am at retirement age and would like to have had continued warmth so that I could enjoy traveling around the US by motorcycle. Traveling by snowplow never entered into the route planning.
Second – Oz and the formerly great Britain will reverse their race to self-destruct their economies, leaving no opportunities to those countries not crazed beyond all belief by the alarmist message.
A metric to watch now – agriculture insurance. Especially in Canada and the northern tier of the US. Insurance companies are early adopters of radical change indicators. Watch grain futures, and stockpiles. Pay attention to who stockpiles grain around the world. Those are the smart ones.
If this proposed solar change produces a substantial increase in rainfall in the Hawaiian Islands, keep track of earthquakes there. A rapid water accumulation in the flanks of Mauna Loa may be what it takes to burden, weaken, and lubricate the deeply fractured lava layers of the southwestern lava hazard zones, 3 and 6. Sloughing off lava hazard zones 3 and 6 into the sea will produce quite an tsunami. Aloha oe, Pahala. The sea beckons.
Dress warm and take your vitamins. Jack Frost is coming to call. No more Florida oranges – the temperate zone is heading south for a while.
Dave says:
June 14, 2011 at 10:50 am
Tongue in cheek or not they are capable of doing just that. Don’t forget that earlier in this new century the city of Aliso Viejo in Southern California got to the second reading of an ordinance to ban dihydrogen monoxide (water) from their borders.
Scott, the continental plates meet right off the coast. Recall Haiti? Japan? Ever look at spaceweather at the 1400+ near orbit asteroids? I wouldn’t live there.
Care to make it good for your pocketbook as well? You can put your money down (as I’ve done) on global temperatures five and ten years from now, here, on the well-known event-prediction site Intrade: https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventClassId=20
rbateman says:
June 14, 2011 at 9:14 pm
This is my latest representation of the spot area ‘vigor’:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/uSC24vs13_14.GIF
Be careful with the F10.7 data, March 7, 2011 is ‘off the scale’ [values are above 900 sfu].It should be around 150.
Jan Perlwitz says:
June 14, 2011 at 12:16 pm
“Solar activity hasn’t increased for 30 years.”
==============
Sunspots reaching 1,000-year high
By Dr David Whitehouse
BBC – JULY 2004
A new analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years.
Scientists based at the Institute for Astronomy in Zurich used ice cores from Greenland to construct a picture of our star’s activity in the past.
They say that over the last century the number of sunspots rose at the same time that the Earth’s climate became steadily warmer.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/3869753.stm
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Study: Sun’s Changes to Blame for Part of Global Warming
By Robert Roy Britt
LiveScience — September 2005
Increased output from the Sun might be to blame for 10 to 30 percent of global warming that has been measured in the past 20 years, according to a new report.
Increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases still play a role, the scientists say.
But climate models of global warming should be corrected to better account for changes in solar activity, according to Nicola Scafetta and Bruce West of Duke University.
The findings were published online this week by the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
http://www.livescience.com/9379-study-sun-blame-part-global-warming.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~
‘Quiet’ sun could mean cooler days
The Age – 2009
THE number of sunspots has declined dramatically in the past two years – but scientists say it is too early to tell if it is the start of a solar depression that could lead to cooler weather on Earth.
Over the past millennium, whenever the sun has had long periods of low sunspot numbers, Earth has weathered equally long cold snaps. The most famous of these was the Maunder Minimum of 1645 to 1715, when sunspots all but vanished for 70 years. It coincided with the coldest period of the Little Ice Age.
For the past two years, sunspots – dark and intensely magnetic blotches on the sun’s surface – have been at their fewest since 1913.
~~~~~~~~~~~~
‘Quiet Sun’ baffling astronomers
BBC – 2009
[…]
In the mid-17th Century, a quiet spell – known as the Maunder Minimum – lasted 70 years, and led to a “mini ice-age”.
This has resulted in some people suggesting that a similar cooling might offset the impact of climate change.
According to Prof Mike Lockwood of Southampton University, this view is too simplistic.
[…]
“If the Sun’s dimming were to have a cooling effect, we’d have seen it by now. ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8008473.stm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
“We’d have seen it by now” — if only we would open our eyes.
Global Cooling 2009:
http://www.populartechnology.net/2010/01/global-cooling-in-2009.html
Global Cooling 2010:
http://www.georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2010/01/how-long-will-cold-snap-last.html
Global Cooling 2011:
http://thetruthpeddler.wordpress.com/2011/03/01/global-cooling-headlines-from-january-2011/
And 90 percent of Australia, contrary to the disinformation peddled by R.Gates, has been significantly below average for over a year.
Open your eyes, Jan.
No mention on the BBC yet
The torsional oscillation and solar pole research is interesting but the L&P claims are not robust. The L&P research has only shown us that the speck ratio has increased during SC24. The overall magnetic strength of sunspots has decreased inline with reducing solar cycles but the magnetic signature has followed the solar cycles. It rises towards cycle max and decreases towards cycle minimum. This has not been picked up in L&P’s research because of bad science and methodology in relation to their record keeping.
Until L&P can show why my graph on all sunspot contrast for SC24 is wrong their claims cannot be taken seriously.
Trying to spread the news to a warmist friend I was looking for a link for the medieval warming period. The wikipedia one still has a nice hokey stick with present temperatures way over the medieval times. It does have a little ice age there though. Some sleight of hand is still going on.
Well, I’m going to be a contrarian thinker. I don’t often do herd mentalities. Solar cycle 15 was pretty weak and choppy except for one high spike. We have been running a volcano eruption rate like the 1930’s in the last three years. The Dabro eruption in Eritrea, though no VEI estimates are solid yet, if it rates a VEI-5 that would strengthen the comparison to the 1930’s. The stratosphere is not getting loaded with SO2 as a Pinatubo would do. The 1930’s had some very harsh winters, floods, late springs, cool summers and some record heat/drought summers that blew a lot of topsoil away in the plains. A brew of volcanic gasses and aerosols that varied in altitudes perturbing the world weather. Good news is that it didn’t last and maybe this won’t either.
Ed Mertin :
June 14, 2011 at 11:28 pm
The statement is that the sun cycles look like the Maunder minimum cycles , not the 1930’s. Astronomers would not make such a blunder. The only question is how much the energy output towards the earth is affected by the sunspot etc cycles.
Leif has been arguing previously that the differences in energy towards the earth from cycle to cycle are too small to make a difference in watts/m^**2. The data from the medieval warm period are proxy data, and it might just be a coincidence that the Maunder minimum coincided with the little ice age. Time will show.
anna v says:
June 15, 2011 at 12:01 am
The only question is how much the energy output towards the earth is affected by the sunspot etc cycles.
The only question?
What about other solar influences on world climate other than TSI?